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IMF: Facing a Darkening Economic Outlook: How the G20 Can Respond

By Kristalina Georgieva

As G20 ministers and central bank governors gather in Bali this week, they face a global economic outlook that has darkened significantly.

When the G20 last met in April, the IMF had just cut its global growth forecast to 3.6 percent for this year and next—and we warned this could get worse given potential downside risks. Since then, several of those risks have materialized—and the multiple crises facing the world have intensified.

The human tragedy of the war in Ukraine has worsened. So, too, has its economic impact especially through commodity price shocks that are slowing growth and exacerbating a cost-of-living crisis that affects hundreds of millions of people—and especially poor people who cannot afford to feed their families. And it’s only getting worse.

Inflation is higher than expected and has broadened beyond food and energy prices. This has prompted major central banks to announce further monetary tightening—which is necessary but will weigh on the recovery.

Continuing pandemic-related disruptions—especially in China—and renewed bottlenecks in global supply chains have hampered economic activity.

As a result, recent indicators imply a weak second quarter—and we will be projecting a further downgrade to global growth for both 2022 and 2023 in our World Economic Outlook Update later this month.

Indeed, the outlook remains extremely uncertain. Think of how further disruption in the natural gas supply to Europe could plunge many economies into recession and trigger a global energy crisis. This is just one of the factors that could worsen an already difficult situation.

It is going to be a tough 2022—and possibly an even tougher 2023, with increased risk of recession.

That is why we need decisive action and strong international cooperation, led by the G20. Our new report to the G20 outlines policies that countries can use to navigate this sea of troubles. Let me highlight three priorities.
First, countries must do everything in their power to bring down high inflation.

Why? Because persistently high inflation could sink the recovery and further damage living standards, particularly for the vulnerable. Inflation has already reached multi-decade highs in many countries, with both headline and core inflation continuing to rise.

This has triggered a monetary tightening cycle that is increasingly synchronized: 75 central banks—or about three-quarters of the central banks we track—have raised interest rates since July 2021. And, on average, they have done so 3.8 times. For emerging and developing economies, where policy rates were lifted sooner, the average total rate increase has been 3 percentage points—almost double the 1.7 percentage points for advanced economies.

Most central banks will need to continue to tighten monetary policy decisively. This is especially urgent where inflation expectations are starting to de-anchor. Without action, these countries could face a destructive wage-price spiral that would require more forceful monetary tightening, with even more harm to growth and employment.

Acting now will hurt less than acting later.

Equally important is clear communication of these policy actions. This is about preserving policy credibility as downside risks abound. For example, continued inflation surprises would require a sharper monetary tightening beyond what the market has priced in, potentially causing further volatility and sell-offs in risk assets and sovereign bond markets. This, in turn, could prompt further capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.
The appreciation of the US dollar has already coincided with portfolio outflows from emerging markets: they experienced a fourth consecutive month of outflows in June, the longest such run in seven years. This is putting additional pressure on vulnerable countries.

Where external shocks are so disruptive they cannot be absorbed by flexible exchange rates alone, policymakers should be ready to act. For example: through foreign exchange interventions or capital flow management measures in a crisis scenario—to help anchor expectations. In addition, they should pre-emptively reduce reliance on foreign currency borrowing where debt levels are high. It was to help countries respond in such circumstances that we recently updated the IMF’s institutional view on this issue.

The Fund is stepping up to serve our members in other ways as well. This includes providing advice on managing reserve assets and technical assistance to strengthen central bank communications.

The goal must be to get everyone safely to the other side of this tightening cycle.

Second, fiscal policy must help—and not hinder—central bank efforts to bring down inflation.

Countries facing elevated debt levels will also need to tighten their fiscal policy. This will help reduce the burden of increasingly expensive borrowing and—at the same time—complement monetary efforts to tame inflation.
In countries where recovery from the pandemic is more advanced, shifting away from extraordinary fiscal support will help tamp down demand and thus reduce price pressures.

But that is only part of the story. Some people will need more support, not less.

This requires targeted and temporary measures to support vulnerable households facing renewed shocks, especially from high energy or food prices. Here, direct cash transfers have proven to be effective, rather than distortionary subsidies or price controls that typically fail to reduce the cost of living in a durable way.

Over the medium-term, structural reforms are also crucial to bolster growth: think of labor market policies that help people join the workforce, especially women.

New measures must be budget-neutral—funded through new revenues or expenditure reductions elsewhere, without incurring fresh debt and to avoid working against monetary policy. This new era of record indebtedness and higher interest rates makes all this doubly important.

Reducing debt is an urgent necessity—especially in emerging and developing economies with liabilities denominated in foreign exchange (FX) that are more vulnerable to tightening global financial conditions and where borrowing costs are surging.

Already, sovereign FX bond yields have reached more than 10 percent in around a third of emerging economies—close to the highs last seen after the global financial crisis. Emerging economies with a greater reliance on domestic borrowing, such as in Asia, have been more insulated. But a broadening of inflation pressures and the attendant need to tighten domestic monetary policy faster could change the calculation.

The situation is increasingly grave for economies in or near debt distress, including 30 percent of emerging market countries and 60 percent of low-income nations.

Again, the Fund is here for its members—offering tailored analysis and advice, and a more agile lending framework to support countries in times of crisis. That includes emergency financing, increased access limits, new liquidity and credit lines, and last year’s historic SDR allocation of $650 billion.

Beyond these efforts, decisive action by all involved is urgently needed to improve and implement the G20’s Common Framework for debt treatment. Large lenders—both sovereign and private—need to step up and play their part. Time is not on our side. It is critical that creditor committees for Chad, Ethiopia, and Zambia deliver as much progress as possible at their meetings this month.

Third, we need a fresh impetus for global cooperation—led by the G20.
To avoid potential crises and boost growth and productivity, more coordinated international action is urgently needed. The key is to build on recent progress in areas ranging from taxation and trade to pandemic preparedness and climate change. The G20’s new $1.1 billion fund for pandemic prevention and preparedness shows what is possible, as do recent successes at the World Trade Organization.

Most urgent of all is action to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis, which is pushing an additional 71 million people into extreme poverty in the world’s poorest countries, according to the United Nations Development Programme . As concerns over food and energy supplies increase, risks of social instability are rising.

To avoid further hunger, malnutrition and migration, the world’s wealthier countries should provide urgent support for those in need, including with new bilateral and multilateral financing, especially through the World Food Programme.

As an immediate step, countries must reverse recently imposed restrictions on food exports. Why? Because such restrictions are both harmful and ineffective in stabilizing domestic prices. Further measures are also needed to strengthen supply chains and to help vulnerable countries adapt food production to cope with climate change.

Here, too, the IMF is helping. We are working closely with our international partners, including through a new multilateral food security initiative . Our new Resilience and Sustainability Trust will provide $45 billion in concessional financing for vulnerable countries—aimed at addressing longer-term challenges such as climate change and future pandemics. And we are ready to do more.

The particularly difficult conditions in many African countries at this moment is important to consider. In my meeting with Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors from the continent this week, many highlighted how the effects of this, entirely exogenous, shock was pushing their economies to the brink. The effect of higher food prices is being felt acutely as food accounts for a higher share of income. Inflation, fiscal, debt and balance of payments pressures are all intensifying. Most are now completely shut out from global financial markets; and unlike other regions don’t have large domestic markets to turn to. Against this backdrop, they are calling on the international community to come up with bold measures to support their people. This is a call we need to heed.

As the G20 meets to navigate the current sea of troubles, we can all take inspiration from a Balinese phrase that captures the spirit that is needed more than ever— menyama braya, “everyone is a brother or sister.”

https://blogs.imf.org/2022/07/13/facing-a-darkening-economic-outlook-how-the-g20-can-respond/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

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Ripple CEO on partnership with BNY to serve as custodian of stablecoin
00:01:12
Brad Garlinghouse In Washington 🚀

It’s time for a fair and open level playing field.

Under Gary Gensler it was quite the opposite.

  • Brad Garlinghouse
    July 9, 2025
00:01:56
More Of The Same...l

🚨 JUST IN: Patriot Tom Fitton, who has been fighting DOJ and FBI to release documents for years, has practically thrown in the towel.

👉 "The justice department and the FBI are irredeemably compromised and corrupted.
The leadership needs to understand that and act accordingly." ~Tom Fitton

00:01:30
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🎁 As of July 8th there have been 84 VERI SmartMetal NFT Activations (1.3%). With shipments ramping up, we witness the corresponding jump in activations.

Need help getting started? Check out our knowledge base to get the info you need: https://veridao.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/51000487052-what-are-the-nft-activation-steps

👉Interested in which NFTs have been activated? Check them out here:
https://basescan.org/token/0x4516a5d613c30a36d157d3b579813734cbb929a4

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🚨BREAKING: The US House Committee on Financial Services says that next week the House will deliver on President Trump's call to make the US the "crypto capital of the world!

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Brinc Launches Web3 Accelerator with Octopus, XDC & IDA

Brinc Launches Web3 Accelerator with Octopus, XDC & IDA to Transform Hong Kong’s Loyalty and Payment Systems.

Read more: https://www.brinc.io/blog/brinc-launches-octopus-backed-web3-accelerator-program-to-revolutionize-hong-kongs-retail-loyalty-and-payment-ecosystem-with-xdc-and-ida-as-key-web3-infrastructure-partners/

🔗 Startups can apply from July 10

📅 Launching Sept 8

Learn more about the Web3 Accelerator program and apply now: https://www.brinc.io/stablecoin-accelerator/

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Musk Turns On Starlink to Save Iranians from Regime’s Internet Crackdown

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a visionary behind SpaceX, has flipped the switch on Starlink, delivering internet to Iranians amid a brutal regime crackdown.

This move comes on the heels of Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the Islamic Republic cuts off online access.

The former Department of Government Efficiency chief activated Starlink satellite internet service for Iranians on Saturday following the Islamic Republic's decision to impose nationwide internet restrictions.

As the Jerusalem Post reports, that the Islamic Republic’s Communications Ministry announced the move, stating, "In view of the special conditions of the country, temporary restrictions have been imposed on the country’s internet."

This action followed a series of Israeli attacks on Iranian targets.

Starlink, a SpaceX-developed satellite constellation, provides high-speed internet to regions with limited connectivity, such as remote areas or conflict zones.

Elizabeth MacDonald, a Fox News contributor, highlighted its impact, noting, "Elon Musk turning on Starlink for Iran in 2022 was a game changer. Starlink connects directly to SpaceX satellites, bypassing Iran’s ground infrastructure. That means even during government-imposed shutdowns or censorship, users can still get online, and reportedly more than 100,000 inside Iran are doing that."

During the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, Starlink enabled Iranians to communicate and share footage globally despite network blackouts," she added.

MacDonald also mentioned ongoing tests of "direct-to-cell" capabilities, which could allow smartphone connections without a dish, potentially expanding access and supporting free expression and protest coordination.

Musk confirmed the activation, noting on Saturday, "The beams are on."

This follows the regime’s internet shutdowns, which were triggered by Israeli military actions.

Adding to the tension, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people on Friday, urging resistance against the regime.

"Israel's fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,” he said.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch, called on military and security forces to abandon the regime, accusing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a Persian-language social media post of forcing Iranians into an unwanted war.

Starlink has been a beacon in other crises. Beyond Iran, Musk has leveraged Starlink to assist people during natural disasters and conflicts.

In the wake of hurricanes and earthquakes, Starlink has provided critical internet access to affected communities, enabling emergency communications and coordination.

Similarly, during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Musk activated Starlink to support Ukrainian forces and civilians, ensuring they could maintain contact and access vital information under dire circumstances.

The genius entrepreneur, is throwing a lifeline to the oppressed in Iran, and the libs can’t stand it.

Conservative talk show host Mark Levin praised Musk’s action, reposting a message stating that Starlink would "reconnect the Iranian people with the internet and put the final nail in the coffin of the Iranian regime."

"God bless you, Elon. The Starlink beams are on in Iran!" Levin wrote.

Musk, who recently stepped down from leading the DOGE in the Trump administration, has apologized to President Trump for past criticisms, including his stance on the One Big Beautiful Bill.

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GENIUS Act lets State banks conduct some business nationwide. Regulators object

The Senate passed the GENIUS Act for stablecoins last week, but significant work remains before it becomes law. The House has a different bill, the STABLE Act, with notable differences that must be reconciled. State banking regulators have raised strong objections to a provision in the GENIUS Act that would allow state banks to operate nationwide without authorization from host states or a federal regulator.

The controversial clause permits a state bank with a regulated stablecoin subsidiary to provide money transmitter and custodial services in any other state. While host states can impose consumer protection laws, they cannot require the usual authorization and oversight typically needed for out-of-state banking operations.

The Conference of State Bank Supervisors welcomed some changes in the GENIUS Act but remains adamantly opposed to this particular provision. In a statement, CSBS said:

“Critical changes must be made during House consideration of the legislation to prevent unintended consequences and further mitigate financial stability risks. CSBS remains concerned with the dramatic and unsupported expansion of the authority of uninsured banks to conduct money transmission or custody activities nationwide without the approval or oversight of host state supervisors (Sec. 16(d)).”

The National Conference of State Legislatures expressed similar concerns in early June, stating:

“We urge you to oppose Section 16(d) and support state authority to regulate financial services in a manner that reflects local conditions, priorities and risk tolerances. Preserving the dual banking system and respecting state autonomy is essential to the safety, soundness and diversity of our nation’s financial sector.”

Evolution of nationwide authorization

Section 16 addresses several issues beyond stablecoins, including preventing a recurrence of the SEC’s SAB 121, which forced crypto assets held in custody onto balance sheets. However, the nationwide authorization subsection was added after the legislation cleared the Senate Banking Committee, with two significant modifications since then.

Originally, the provision applied only to special bank charters like Wyoming’s Special Purpose Depository Institutions or Connecticut’s Innovation Banks. Examples include crypto-focused Custodia Bank and crypto exchange Kraken in Wyoming, plus traditional finance player Fnality US in Connecticut. Recently the scope was expanded to cover most state chartered banks with stablecoin subsidiaries, possibly due to concerns about competitive advantages.

Simultaneously, the clause was substantially tightened. The initial version allowed state chartered banks to provide money transmission and custody services nationwide for any type of asset, which would include cryptocurrencies. Now these activities can only be conducted by the stablecoin subsidiary, and while Section 16(d) doesn’t explicitly limit services to stablecoins, the GENIUS Act currently restricts issuers to stablecoin related activities.

However, the House STABLE Act takes a more permissive approach, allowing regulators to decide which non-stablecoin activities are permitted. If the House version prevails in reconciliation, it could result in a significant expansion of allowed nationwide banking activities beyond stablecoins.

Is it that bad?

As originally drafted, the clause seemed overly permissive.

The amended clause makes sense for stablecoin issuers. They want to have a single regulator and be able to provide the stablecoin services throughout the United States. But it also leans into the perception outside of crypto that this is just another form of regulatory arbitrage.

The controversy over Section 16(d) reflects concerns about creating a regulatory gap that allows banks to operate interstate without the oversight typically required from either federal or state authorities. As the two Congressional chambers work toward reconciliation, lawmakers must decide whether stablecoin legislation should include provisions that effectively reduce traditional banking oversight requirements.

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If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
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🔗 Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

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Dubai regulator VARA classifies RWA issuance as licensed activity
Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) leads global regulatory framework - makes RWA issuance licensed activity in Dubai.

Real-world assets (RWAs) issuance is now licensed activity in Dubai.

~ Actual law.
~ Not a legal gray zone.
~ Not a whitepaper fantasy.

RWA issuance and listing on secondary markets is defined under binding crypto regulation.

It’s execution by Dubai.

Irina Heaver explained:

“RWA issuance is no longer theoretical. It’s now a regulatory reality.”

VARA defined:

- RWAs are classified as Asset-Referenced Virtual Assets (ARVAs)

- Secondary market trading is permitted under VARA license

- Issuers need capital, audits, and legal disclosures

- Regulated broker-dealers and exchanges can now onboard and trade them

This closes the gap that killed STOs in 2018.

No more tokenization without venues.
No more assets without liquidity.

UAE is doing what Switzerland, Singapore, and Europe still haven’t:

Creating enforceable frameworks for RWA tokenization that actually work.

Matthew White, CEO of VARA, said it perfectly:

“Tokenization will redefine global finance in 2025.”

He’s not exaggerating.

$500B+ market predicted next year.

And the UAE just gave it legal rails.

~Real estate.
~Private credit.
~Shariah-compliant products.

Everything is in play.

This is how you turn hype into infrastructure.

What Dubai is doing now is 3 years ahead of everyone else.

Founders, investors, ecosystem builders:

You want to build real-world assets onchain.

Don’t waste another year waiting for clarity.

Come to Dubai.

It’s already here.

 

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🙏 Donations Accepted 🙏

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

🔗 Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! Namasté 🙏 Crypto Michael ⚡  The Dinarian

 

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