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IMF: Facing a Darkening Economic Outlook: How the G20 Can Respond

By Kristalina Georgieva

As G20 ministers and central bank governors gather in Bali this week, they face a global economic outlook that has darkened significantly.

When the G20 last met in April, the IMF had just cut its global growth forecast to 3.6 percent for this year and next—and we warned this could get worse given potential downside risks. Since then, several of those risks have materialized—and the multiple crises facing the world have intensified.

The human tragedy of the war in Ukraine has worsened. So, too, has its economic impact especially through commodity price shocks that are slowing growth and exacerbating a cost-of-living crisis that affects hundreds of millions of people—and especially poor people who cannot afford to feed their families. And it’s only getting worse.

Inflation is higher than expected and has broadened beyond food and energy prices. This has prompted major central banks to announce further monetary tightening—which is necessary but will weigh on the recovery.

Continuing pandemic-related disruptions—especially in China—and renewed bottlenecks in global supply chains have hampered economic activity.

As a result, recent indicators imply a weak second quarter—and we will be projecting a further downgrade to global growth for both 2022 and 2023 in our World Economic Outlook Update later this month.

Indeed, the outlook remains extremely uncertain. Think of how further disruption in the natural gas supply to Europe could plunge many economies into recession and trigger a global energy crisis. This is just one of the factors that could worsen an already difficult situation.

It is going to be a tough 2022—and possibly an even tougher 2023, with increased risk of recession.

That is why we need decisive action and strong international cooperation, led by the G20. Our new report to the G20 outlines policies that countries can use to navigate this sea of troubles. Let me highlight three priorities.
First, countries must do everything in their power to bring down high inflation.

Why? Because persistently high inflation could sink the recovery and further damage living standards, particularly for the vulnerable. Inflation has already reached multi-decade highs in many countries, with both headline and core inflation continuing to rise.

This has triggered a monetary tightening cycle that is increasingly synchronized: 75 central banks—or about three-quarters of the central banks we track—have raised interest rates since July 2021. And, on average, they have done so 3.8 times. For emerging and developing economies, where policy rates were lifted sooner, the average total rate increase has been 3 percentage points—almost double the 1.7 percentage points for advanced economies.

Most central banks will need to continue to tighten monetary policy decisively. This is especially urgent where inflation expectations are starting to de-anchor. Without action, these countries could face a destructive wage-price spiral that would require more forceful monetary tightening, with even more harm to growth and employment.

Acting now will hurt less than acting later.

Equally important is clear communication of these policy actions. This is about preserving policy credibility as downside risks abound. For example, continued inflation surprises would require a sharper monetary tightening beyond what the market has priced in, potentially causing further volatility and sell-offs in risk assets and sovereign bond markets. This, in turn, could prompt further capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.
The appreciation of the US dollar has already coincided with portfolio outflows from emerging markets: they experienced a fourth consecutive month of outflows in June, the longest such run in seven years. This is putting additional pressure on vulnerable countries.

Where external shocks are so disruptive they cannot be absorbed by flexible exchange rates alone, policymakers should be ready to act. For example: through foreign exchange interventions or capital flow management measures in a crisis scenario—to help anchor expectations. In addition, they should pre-emptively reduce reliance on foreign currency borrowing where debt levels are high. It was to help countries respond in such circumstances that we recently updated the IMF’s institutional view on this issue.

The Fund is stepping up to serve our members in other ways as well. This includes providing advice on managing reserve assets and technical assistance to strengthen central bank communications.

The goal must be to get everyone safely to the other side of this tightening cycle.

Second, fiscal policy must help—and not hinder—central bank efforts to bring down inflation.

Countries facing elevated debt levels will also need to tighten their fiscal policy. This will help reduce the burden of increasingly expensive borrowing and—at the same time—complement monetary efforts to tame inflation.
In countries where recovery from the pandemic is more advanced, shifting away from extraordinary fiscal support will help tamp down demand and thus reduce price pressures.

But that is only part of the story. Some people will need more support, not less.

This requires targeted and temporary measures to support vulnerable households facing renewed shocks, especially from high energy or food prices. Here, direct cash transfers have proven to be effective, rather than distortionary subsidies or price controls that typically fail to reduce the cost of living in a durable way.

Over the medium-term, structural reforms are also crucial to bolster growth: think of labor market policies that help people join the workforce, especially women.

New measures must be budget-neutral—funded through new revenues or expenditure reductions elsewhere, without incurring fresh debt and to avoid working against monetary policy. This new era of record indebtedness and higher interest rates makes all this doubly important.

Reducing debt is an urgent necessity—especially in emerging and developing economies with liabilities denominated in foreign exchange (FX) that are more vulnerable to tightening global financial conditions and where borrowing costs are surging.

Already, sovereign FX bond yields have reached more than 10 percent in around a third of emerging economies—close to the highs last seen after the global financial crisis. Emerging economies with a greater reliance on domestic borrowing, such as in Asia, have been more insulated. But a broadening of inflation pressures and the attendant need to tighten domestic monetary policy faster could change the calculation.

The situation is increasingly grave for economies in or near debt distress, including 30 percent of emerging market countries and 60 percent of low-income nations.

Again, the Fund is here for its members—offering tailored analysis and advice, and a more agile lending framework to support countries in times of crisis. That includes emergency financing, increased access limits, new liquidity and credit lines, and last year’s historic SDR allocation of $650 billion.

Beyond these efforts, decisive action by all involved is urgently needed to improve and implement the G20’s Common Framework for debt treatment. Large lenders—both sovereign and private—need to step up and play their part. Time is not on our side. It is critical that creditor committees for Chad, Ethiopia, and Zambia deliver as much progress as possible at their meetings this month.

Third, we need a fresh impetus for global cooperation—led by the G20.
To avoid potential crises and boost growth and productivity, more coordinated international action is urgently needed. The key is to build on recent progress in areas ranging from taxation and trade to pandemic preparedness and climate change. The G20’s new $1.1 billion fund for pandemic prevention and preparedness shows what is possible, as do recent successes at the World Trade Organization.

Most urgent of all is action to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis, which is pushing an additional 71 million people into extreme poverty in the world’s poorest countries, according to the United Nations Development Programme . As concerns over food and energy supplies increase, risks of social instability are rising.

To avoid further hunger, malnutrition and migration, the world’s wealthier countries should provide urgent support for those in need, including with new bilateral and multilateral financing, especially through the World Food Programme.

As an immediate step, countries must reverse recently imposed restrictions on food exports. Why? Because such restrictions are both harmful and ineffective in stabilizing domestic prices. Further measures are also needed to strengthen supply chains and to help vulnerable countries adapt food production to cope with climate change.

Here, too, the IMF is helping. We are working closely with our international partners, including through a new multilateral food security initiative . Our new Resilience and Sustainability Trust will provide $45 billion in concessional financing for vulnerable countries—aimed at addressing longer-term challenges such as climate change and future pandemics. And we are ready to do more.

The particularly difficult conditions in many African countries at this moment is important to consider. In my meeting with Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors from the continent this week, many highlighted how the effects of this, entirely exogenous, shock was pushing their economies to the brink. The effect of higher food prices is being felt acutely as food accounts for a higher share of income. Inflation, fiscal, debt and balance of payments pressures are all intensifying. Most are now completely shut out from global financial markets; and unlike other regions don’t have large domestic markets to turn to. Against this backdrop, they are calling on the international community to come up with bold measures to support their people. This is a call we need to heed.

As the G20 meets to navigate the current sea of troubles, we can all take inspiration from a Balinese phrase that captures the spirit that is needed more than ever— menyama braya, “everyone is a brother or sister.”

https://blogs.imf.org/2022/07/13/facing-a-darkening-economic-outlook-how-the-g20-can-respond/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

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Denelle Dixon (Stellar CEO) On Bloomburg 🚀

'Everyone, including Mastercard and Visa, is looking at how this technology can make finance easier for their consumers and their business. I don't think there is going to be a loser, but I do think there will be shake-ups. And ultimately, the consumer is going to win.' - SDF CEO @DenelleDixon on @BloombergTV

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We are minutes away from passing the GENIUS Act.
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Brad Garlinghouse On Banking & The Future Of Money!
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👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading
Nothing to see here.. 👀

Israel's Mossad spy agency was hacked just days before Netanyahu launched strikes on Iranian targets. The files uncovered? Nothing short of apocalyptic.

Among them: 👉 blueprints for cyber warfare, targeted assassinations, blackmail material, and even the unthinkable - the Samson Option - Israel's doomsday doctrine to blow up the entire world with a nuclear holocaust if their own survival is ever threatened.

Op: https://x.com/BarronTNews_/status/1935871791169159188?s=19

🚨 XRP Ledger Welcomes XAO DAO for On-Chain Governance 🚨

The XRP Ledger has integrated XAO DAO, introducing a new era of on-chain governance for the network. This move aims to enhance community-driven decision-making and transparency by allowing stakeholders to participate directly in protocol upgrades and ecosystem proposals through decentralized, blockchain-based voting mechanisms.

Key Highlights:

  • On-Chain Governance:
    XAO DAO brings a decentralized governance framework to the XRP Ledger, enabling holders and ecosystem participants to vote on proposals, upgrades, and other critical decisions in a transparent and secure manner.

  • Community Empowerment:
    The integration is designed to give the XRP community a more active role in shaping the network’s future, fostering greater collaboration and innovation among developers, validators, and users.

  • Ecosystem Growth:
    This development is expected to drive further adoption of the XRP Ledger, attract new projects, and strengthen the network’s position as a leading blockchain for ...

Persisters, Liquid Staking $XPRT is now live on Persistence DEX.

With stkXPRT built into the DEX, you can:

  • Liquid stake XPRT directly on 👉 app.persistence.one/stake

  • Superfluid LP into the stkXPRT/XPRT pool

Best part? It takes less than a minute

Here’s how you can do it 📒👇

https://x.com/PersistenceOne/status/1934954313480065426

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🎬Proof the Deep State Planned This War for Years🎬
Nation First outlines how the Israeli attack on Iran was planned by the Deep State and the Military Industrial Complex over 15 years ago.

Prepare to have your mind blown

~Namasté 🙏 Crypto Michael ⚡ The Dinarian

Dear friend,

What just happened in Iran wasn’t a surprise attack. It wasn’t a last-minute decision. It wasn’t even Israel acting alone.

It was a war plan written years ago — by men in suits, sitting in think tanks in Washington and New York. And yesterday, that plan was finally put into action.

Here’s the truth they don’t want you to know: this war was cooked up long before Trump ever became President — and it was designed to happen exactly this way.

Let’s start with what just happened.

Israel launched a massive, unexpected strike on Iran. They hit nuclear facilities. They killed military generals. They struck deep inside Iranian territory — and now the whole region is on edge, ready to explode into full-blown war.

The media is acting shocked. But I’m not. You shouldn’t be either.

Why?

Because we have the documents. They told us this was coming. Years ago.

Exhibit A: The Brookings Institution.

The Brooking Institution is a fancy name for what’s basically a war-planning factory dressed up as a research centre. Back in 2009, Brookings published a report called Which Path to Persia?

It laid out exactly how to get the U.S. into a war with Iran — without looking like the bad guy.

Here’s the sickest part:

“The United States would encourage — and perhaps even assist — the Israelis in conducting the strikes… in the expectation that both international criticism and Iranian retaliation would be deflected away from the United States and onto Israel.”

Let that sink in.

They literally suggested using Israel to start the war, so America could stand back and say, “Wasn’t us!”

They even titled a chapter of this report: “Leave It to Bibi” — naming Netanyahu as the guy to light the match.

Exhibit B: The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

The Council on Foreign Relations is an another Deep State operation. Also in 2009, CFR published a “contingency memothat laid out the whole military plan for an Israeli strike on Iran — step by step.

  • What routes the jets would fly (over Jordan and Iraq).

  • What bombs they’d use (the biggest bunker-busters in the U.S. arsenal).

  • Which Iranian sites to hit (Natanz, Arak, Esfahan).

  • And how Iran might respond (missiles, drones, threats to U.S. bases).

It’s like they had a time machine. Because those exact strikes just happened following the routes, likely using the bombs and hitting the sites that the CFR outlined.

Exhibit C: The Plot to Attack Iran by Dan Kovalik.

This one really blows the lid off.

US human rights lawyer and journalist Dan Kovalik, in his book The Plot to Attack Iran: How the CIA and the Deep State Have Conspired to Vilify Iran, shows how the CIA and Israel’s Mossad have been working together for decades — not just watching Iran, but actively sabotaging it. Killing scientists. Running cyberattacks. Feeding lies to the media to make Iran look like it’s always “six months away” from building a nuke.

He even reveals how they discussed false flag attacks — faking an Iranian strike to justify going to war. That’s not a conspiracy theory. That’s documented strategy.

And here’s where President Trump comes in.

Unlike the warmongers who wrote these plans, Trump wasn’t looking to bomb Iran. He wanted to talk. Negotiate. Make a deal — like he did with North Korea.

In fact, peace talks with Iran were just days away.

But someone didn’t want peace. Someone wanted war.

So Israel went in — just like the Brookings script said — and lit the fuse.

Trump didn’t authorise it. He didn’t want it. But they gazumped him. They went around him. And now, the peace he was trying to build has been blown to bits.

This was never about Iran being a threat. It was about keeping the war machine fed.

Think tanks, defence contractors, foreign lobbies — they don’t profit from peace. They thrive on tension. On fear. On war.

And now, thanks to them, the world’s one step closer to the edge.

If you’ve never trusted the mainstream media, you’re right not to.

If you’ve ever suspected there’s a shadowy agenda behind every war, you’re not paranoid.

You’re paying attention.

Because the documents are real. The war was planned. And the bombs are falling — right on schedule.

Pray for Iran’s civilians.

Pray for the Israelis caught in the crossfire.

Pray for a President who still wants peace.

And pray that we wake up before it’s too late.

Because the war has started.

But the truth has just begun to spread.

Until next time, God bless you, your family and nation.

Take care,

George Christensen

Source:

George Christensen is a former Australian politician, a Christian, freedom lover, conservative, blogger, podcaster, journalist and theologian. He has been feted by the Epoch Times as a “champion of human rights” and his writings have been praised by Infowars’ Alex Jones as “excellent and informative”.

George believes Nation First will be an essential part of the ongoing fight for freedom:

The time is now for every proud patriot to step to the fore and fight for our freedom, sovereignty and way of life. Information is a key tool in any battle and the Nation First newsletter will be a valuable tool in the battle for the future of the West.

— George Christensen.

Find more about George at his www.georgechristensen.com.au website.

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The Possible Impact Of USDC On The XRP Ledger And RLUSD
Key Points
  • It seems likely that USDC on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) boosts liquidity, benefiting XRP, though some see it as competition for RLUSD.
  • Research suggests both stablecoins can coexist, enhancing the XRPL ecosystem.
  • The evidence leans toward increased network activity being good for XRP, despite potential competition.

The recent launch of USDC on the XRP Ledger has sparked discussions about its impact on the ecosystem, particularly in relation to RLUSD, Ripple's own stablecoin. This response explores whether this development is more about competition for RLUSD or if it enhances liquidity on the XRPL, ultimately benefiting XRP.
 

Impact on Liquidity and XRP

The introduction of USDC, a major stablecoin with a $61 billion market cap, likely increases liquidity on the XRPL by attracting more users, developers, and institutions. This boost can enhance DeFi applications and enterprise payments, potentially driving demand for XRP, the native token used for transaction fees. While some may view it as competition for RLUSD, the overall effect seems positive for the XRPL's growth.
 

Competition vs. Coexistence with RLUSD

USDC and RLUSD cater to different needs: USDC appeals to those valuing regulatory compliance, while RLUSD, backed by Ripple, may attract users preferring ecosystem integration. Research suggests both can coexist, increasing options and fostering innovation, rather than purely competing.
 

Detailed Analysis of USDC on XRPL and Its Implications

The integration of USDC on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), announced on June 12, 2025, by Circle, has significant implications for the ecosystem, particularly in relation to RLUSD, Ripple's stablecoin launched in 2024. This section provides a comprehensive analysis, exploring whether this development is more about competition for RLUSD or if it enhances liquidity on the XRPL, ultimately benefiting XRP.
 

Understanding RLUSD and Its Role

RLUSD, Ripple's stablecoin, received approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) in 2024 and is designed to be fully backed by cash and cash equivalents, ensuring stability. It is available on both the Ethereum and XRP Ledger blockchains, aiming to enhance liquidity, reduce volatility, and serve cross-border payments. With a current market cap of $413 million, RLUSD is smaller than USDC's $61 billion but has regulatory credibility, particularly appealing to institutions.
 

Impact of USDC on the XRPL

The launch of USDC on the XRPL is a significant development, given its status as the second-largest stablecoin by market cap.
 
Key impacts include:
  • Liquidity Boost: USDC's integration can attract more users, developers, and institutions, increasing overall liquidity. This is crucial for DeFi applications, as Circle's announcement emphasizes its use in liquidity provisioning for token pairs and FX flows.
  • Increased Utility: USDC enhances the XRPL's utility for enterprise payments, financial infrastructure, and DeFi, potentially making it more attractive for global money movement and transparent settlements.
  • Regulatory and Institutional Appeal: As a regulated stablecoin issued by Circle, USDC can bring institutional users to the XRPL, aligning with Ripple's goals for regulated financial activities.
  • Network Growth: Supporting a widely recognized stablecoin like USDC on 22 blockchains, including the XRPL, increases the network's visibility and adoption, potentially driving more activity.

Competition vs. Complementarity with RLUSD

While USDC's launch could be seen as competition for RLUSD, the evidence suggests a more nuanced relationship:
  • Competition: Both are stablecoins on the XRPL, and USDC's larger market presence ($61 billion vs. RLUSD's $413 million) might attract users and developers away from RLUSD. However, competition can drive innovation, such as lower fees or better services, benefiting the ecosystem
  • Complementarity: Different stablecoins cater to different needs. USDC appeals to users valuing regulatory compliance and widespread adoption across multiple blockchains, while RLUSD, backed by Ripple, may attract those preferring ecosystem integration and regulatory approval from NYDFS. The XRPL can benefit from having multiple options, increasing liquidity and fostering a diverse ecosystem.
  • Coexistence Benefits: Research suggests that having multiple stablecoins enhances liquidity and provides users with more choices, potentially leading to higher network activity. For example, institutions might use USDC for global payments and RLUSD for specific XRPL-integrated applications, creating a symbiotic relationships.

Impact on XRP

The introduction of USDC, alongside RLUSD, is likely beneficial for XRP, the native token of the XRPL, for several reasons:
  • Increased Liquidity and Activity: Higher liquidity on the XRPL, driven by both stablecoins, can increase transaction volumes. XRP is used for transaction fees, with some fees burned, potentially reducing supply over time and increasing demand.
  • DeFi and Enterprise Use Cases: Both USDC and RLUSD enhance DeFi and enterprise applications, such as liquidity pools and cross-border payments, which can drive demand for XRP as a settlement token.
  • Network Growth: A more liquid and active XRPL is more attractive to developers and users, potentially leading to long-term growth for XRP, as increased utility can drive its value.
Expert analyses, such as those from u.today and ledgerinsights.com, suggest the launch is a "massive boost" for liquidity and adoption, with RLUSD also playing a significant role.
 

Comparative Analysis: USDC vs. RLUSD

To further illustrate, consider the following table comparing key attributes:
 
Given the evidence, it is more accurate to view the introduction of USDC on the XRPL as beneficial for liquidity, which is ultimately good for XRP, rather than solely as competition for RLUSD. The XRPL benefits from increased options, with both stablecoins enhancing liquidity, utility, and network growth. While some competition exists, the overall impact is positive, fostering a robust ecosystem that can drive demand for XRP. This conclusion aligns with expert analyses and community discussions, acknowledging the complexity of the stablecoin market within the XRPL.
 

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Die Glocke: The Nazi Bell That Bent Time, Vanished, and Was Never Seen Again

In the darkest corners of the Third Reich, behind the veil of conventional warfare, Nazi scientists were racing toward something that defied explanation. They weren’t just building rockets or jet planes, they were chasing a technology that pushed the boundaries of physics itself. One of the most mysterious and controversial projects to emerge from this era was called Die Glocke, German for "The Bell." But this wasn’t a bomb. It wasn’t even a weapon in the traditional sense. It was something else entirely.

What Was Die Glocke?

Die Glocke was reportedly a bell-shaped device, approximately 9 feet in diameter and 12 to 15 feet tall, encased in a thick ceramic-like shell. Internally, it housed two counter-rotating cylinders filled with a strange, metallic, violet-colored liquid referred to as Xerum 525, a highly radioactive and unknown compound. According to Polish researcher Igor Witkowski, who first brought the story to global attention in his book "The Truth About the Wunderwaffe," Die Glocke emitted intense electromagnetic radiation and killed many of the scientists who worked on it.

But the real claim that set the world alight? That it had the potential to manipulate gravity, disrupt time, and possibly even pierce dimensional barriers. Some descriptions sound like science fiction. Others sound eerily like technologies rumored in today’s black projects or even UAP propulsion systems.

Where Was It Built?

Most reports place the Bell project deep beneath the Wenceslas Mine in Ludwikowice, Poland. There, nestled in a reinforced underground facility known as Der Riese (The Giant), the Nazis hid many of their advanced weapons programs. Adjacent to the suspected test site is a strange concrete structure referred to today as The Henge, a ring of reinforced pillars that some researchers believe was part of an anti-gravity testing rig or cooling tower for Die Glocke. To this day, its true purpose remains unexplained.

Hans Kammler: The Man Who Vanished SS General Hans Kammler oversaw Nazi Germany’s most advanced technological programs, including the V-2 rocket and rumored exotic weapons like Die Glocke. He was a man with top-tier clearance and deep ties to the Reich’s secret projects. When the war ended, Kammler disappeared. No confirmed death, no trial, or capture. He was never heard from again. Some believe he brokered his safety with U.S. forces during Operation Paperclip, offering knowledge of Die Glocke in exchange for asylum. Others suggest he escaped to South America with the Bell. Whatever the truth, the timing of his disappearance and the vanishing of Die Glocke are hard to ignore.

Did It Actually Work?

That’s the million-dollar question. Accounts claim that when operational, Die Glocke emitted powerful gravitational and temporal anomalies. Test subjects reportedly experienced cellular breakdown, time displacement, and hallucinations. Some witnesses alleged that the device caused freezing of time, or at least a distortion in how time passed in its proximity. Others suggested the Bell may have even "jumped dimensions" or teleported entirely. Skeptics say it was nothing more than a high-energy centrifuge with tragic side effects. Still, CIA documents later referenced Die Glocke, and even modern physicists admit that some of the descriptions line up with theoretical frameworks for gravity manipulation and field-based propulsion.

Connection to Modern Black Projects

If Die Glocke truly existed and worked, it would make sense that it never saw public light. Instead, it would’ve been buried, repurposed, and integrated into deep black programs. Anti-gravity research, electromagnetic propulsion, even certain descriptions of UAPs, all have eerie parallels to the Bell’s characteristics. Was Die Glocke an early testbed for what would later become known as field propulsion or even quantum mirroring? Or was it a dangerous dead-end in the pursuit of Nazi technological superiority?

Last Thoughts To Summarize

Die Glocke remains one of the most tantalizing mysteries of WWII, part weapon, part experiment, part occult machine. A device said to manipulate gravity and time. A Nazi general who vanished without a trace. A concrete ring still standing in the Polish forest. Whether it was a real breakthrough in exotic physics or an elaborate myth built on whispers, Die Glocke has become a symbol, of lost knowledge, buried technology, and the thin line between science and the supernatural. If it was real, it’s likely not lost, just... relocated!

Source

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