TheDinarian
News • Business • Investing & Finance
? The Dinarian on Locals brings you the latest in news, interviews, in-depth conversations, and stories from across the blockchain and global communities—within and beyond cryptocurrency ?. Experts delve into how blockchain technology is reshaping industries, enhancing business networks ?, transforming transaction workflows, and advancing distributed ledger systems ??. We also explore intriguing topics that may venture into the realm of conspiracies—and so much more!
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
Gold & The Upcoming Recession

We are now seeing the initial stages of a currency, credit, and banking crisis develop.

Driving it are an inflation of prices, contraction of bank credit and a pathological fear of recession.

One can imagine that the major central banks almost wish a mild recession upon us so that they can keep interest rates suppressed and bond yields low.

The key to understanding the course of events is that the cycle of bank credit is turning down, and this time the factors driving contraction are greater than anything we have experienced since the 1930s, and possibly in all modern monetary history.

This article joins the dots between inflation and recession and puts the relationship between money (that is only gold), currencies, credit, and commodity prices into their proper perspective.

The bank credit downturn…
It is increasingly obvious that the economic cost of sanctioning Russia is immense, and there’s now growing evidence of all major economies facing a downturn in economic activity. And we don’t have to rely on GDP forecasts to know why. Intuitively, if food and energy shortages impact us all, higher prices for these items alone will affect our spending on less important items and services.

That’s reasonable enough for sensible citizens. But financial analysts insist on quantifying it with their models. Their principal measure is the total value of all recorded transactions, comprised of GDP. They proceed seemingly unaware of the difference between the value of economic activity to the advancement of the human condition, which can’t be measured, and a meaningless total comprised of only currency and credit, which can. Consequently, all they end up recording is changes in the quantity of currency and credit deployed in the economy.

Of course, there is a broad point that if the quantity of currency and credit contracts, GDP falls. And if it is severe, economic activity tends to fall as well. But to equate the two to the point that a variation of less than a per cent or so from modelled forecasts means anything is nonsense. A proper assessment of the economic condition gets lost.

Instead, an awareness of the role of bank credit is called for. Banks create credit, which feeds into the GDP total when they are optimistic about the outlook for lending. And when they deem the outlook to be deteriorating, they withdraw credit which reduces the GDP total. It leads to a repetitive cycle of boom and bust. We are now entering a period where, at the margin, banks are trying to reduce their exposure to credit going sour. Therefore, GDP will contract And we can assess where it will contract. It really is that simple.

The best thing to do is to stand back and let the excesses of lending and the support for malinvestments wash themselves out of the system. The last time this was done was the brief but very sharp recession of 1920—1921 in the US. The government of the day understood it was not its business to intervene, and anyway, it was not capable of improving thngs.

But increasingly since, monetary policy has become run by central banks which steer their economies through rear view mirrors, reacting to information rather than anticipating. But even if they could anticipate economic trends they lack the commercial nous to manage it. Instead, their stock reaction to declining GDP will be to “stimulate”. Not only do they have a mandate to maintain full employment, but they have a Keynesian belief that a decline in GDP is entirely due to falling demand. Falling demand, they say, leads to lower prices, so the inflation figures in the CPI will fall. Producer prices will fall. All commodity prices will fall. The chart below feeds this line of hopeful thinking.

This basket of commodities has fallen in value by 17% in a month. Panic over. Even wheat and soya prices have fallen. Dr Copper is down. Grasping at these straws, central banks are undoubtedly relieved that inflation might be turning transient after all.

Or so they think. There is no doubt that we are experiencing enormous price volatility. If it was entirely due to consumers deciding not to spend because prices are too high for them, that is one thing. But if it is because banks are withdrawing credit, the consequences are materially different.

A central bank’s concern to maintain consumer spending might discourage banks from contracting credit for consumers, at least initially. Furthermore, their risk models show that while individually consumers using credit are often high risk the magic of securitisation turns these risks collectively into low risk. It becomes a numbers game. So, credit card and other consumer faced lending divisions with very high credit margins are not the first to be targeted. And anyway, that would put the bank’s executives at odds with the central bank.

Instead, in the initial stages of a credit downturn, banks withdraw credit principally from business borrowers who use overdraft facilities. A business that frequently resorts to overdraft facilities is high risk in any bank’s assessment. Weaker businesses are first to succumb to the credit downturn for this reason. Other early victims of credit contraction are financial speculators because their collateral is easily realised. We have seen the decline of US stock indices so far being accompanied by a $200bn reduction in margin lending. There’s still much more to go.

As the economist Irving Fisher pointed out in the 1930s, calling in loans to reduce bank credit can become a self-feeding destruction of value. The bit he failed to understand is that in a serious downturn it can’t be helped, because it is the other side of earlier credit expansion, and it is the unwinding of unsound lending. Both an understanding of what drives periodic contractions of bank credit and the empirical evidence that it has repeated in one form or another approximately every decade since records began, inform us that it should not be stopped but allowed to proceed. Compare the brief 1920—1921 slump in the US with the prolonged 1930s slump, the latter managed by first Presidents Herbert Hoover and then Franklin Roosevelt.

We should also know from understanding that bank credit is a cycle, that the height of the recent expansionary phase measured by the ratio of total bank balance sheet assets to their shareholders’ capital indicates the likely severity of the subsequent credit contraction. It reflects deposit liabilities to a bank’s customers relative to its shareholders assets. Traditionally, asset to equity ratios of more than eight to ten times were deemed risky. Some major banks, particularly in the EU and Japan, are now at over twenty times. While the US banks are less geared, the systemic risks to them from other national banking systems in this financially interconnected world are the highest they have ever been.

For the immediate future we can discern two things. First is that production of goods and services is likely to be more limited than consumption due to an absence of bank credit, knocking on the head the Keynesian misconception that it is a problem of insufficient demand. That is just an initial phase. And following it, the contraction of bank credit can be expected to become more severe, as banks draw their horns in to protect their shareholders from an Irving Fisher style slump. In this subsequent second phase both producers and consumers will face enormous financial difficulties.

Without aggressive intervention by central banks, the correction from excessive over-lending taking bank balance sheets beyond dangerous levels of leverage will simply fuel a GDP slump. Central banks will intervene, not just to deliver on the full employment mandate, but to finance government budget deficits which will soar under these developing circumstances.

Prices in a slump
The last real slump, when the forces driving bank credit contraction were arguably less severe, was in the 1930s following the Wall Street crash. At that time, the dollar and sterling, together the world’s major international currencies, were both on gold standards. Prices of commodities, raw materials and agricultural products collapsed, effectively measured in gold through these two currencies. The political strains led to Britain abandoning its bullion standard in 1932, and the US gold coin standard was suspended for US citizens in 1933, followed by a 40% dollar-devaluation in January 1934.

The effect of the collapse of bank credit was to make circulating media in dollars and sterling scarce, thereby raising their purchasing power. To this extent, gold’s purchasing power also rose, because it was tied to the currencies. While gold gave credibility to the dollar and sterling, it was the contraction of bank credit that drove the slump in prices, while gold got the blame.

We know that priced in gold, over time commodity, raw materials, and agricultural product prices are remarkably stable. Disruption in the price relationship does not come from gold. The following chart of the WTI oil price rebased to 1950 illustrates prices in sterling, dollars, and euros where there are huge variations in prices. Contrast that with gold (the yellow line), where the price today is down about 30% from 1950 with minimal volatility along the way.

Since 1992, which is the earliest common date we have for these series, an unweighted average gold value for them has fallen a net 19% (the black line). Fuel has been the most volatile at up to 2.5 times the 1992 price, but from the previous chart we can see that it was up a net 12 times in US dollars in 2007/08 from 1992. Priced in gold, the relatively little volatility we see in these commodity groups is as close as we can get to free market values in sound money. And even then, we know that gold prices are manipulated in the markets. We can also assume that the origin of this volatility does not come from gold, but from the violent price changes in fiat currencies, their interest rates, and their distortions with respect to demand for commodities.

These findings overturn conventional opinions on price formation. The evidence is that it is not true that fiat currencies are purely objective in their relationship with commodity prices. Forecasters of commodity prices incorrectly assume there is no change from the currency side. But clearly, the fluctuations overwhelmingly emanate from the currencies themselves.

This brings us to the likely effect of an economic slump on prices. Initially in our analysis, we will assume there is little change in the public’s desire to hold fiat currencies relative to the range of commodities and consumer goods. That being the case, we can see that it will be variations in the quantity of currency and credit in circulation driving prices. A contraction in this quantity will tend to lower prices. And Keynesian economists might conclude that precious metals being commodities will also fall in price against fiat currencies, given that fiat currencies are no longer tied to gold.

The flaw in this argument is that there are indeed other factors involved, and the consequences for the quantity of currency and credit in a slump must be taken into account. Irrespective of changes in monetary policy, in socialised economies government budget deficits soar and will need financing by expansion of the currency if bank credit is not forthcoming. In other words, despite the tendency for banks to contract bank credit to the private sector and even if central banks do not amend monetary policies, it will be more than offset by an expansion of currency passed into the economy through the government’s books.

Furthermore, under these circumstances monetary policy will change as well. Following the initial withdrawal of overdraft credit from businesses and bank loans for financial speculation, there is likely to be a softening of consumer demand as lending standards tighten and financial insecurity for consumers escalates. Central banks will notice the tendency for the withdrawal of bank credit to lead to a slump in consumer demand. They will almost certainly reduce interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing to replace contracting bank credit to stimulate flagging economic activity. They have eased and stimulated in every bank credit cycle at this point since the 1930s, and there’s no reason to think they will do otherwise today.

An increase in currency and credit, not emanating from the commercial banks but from the central bank, with increasing budget deficits will continue to debase the currency in gold terms. The currency will also be debased against commodities. But with some volatility imparted from the currency side, we can see that the general relationship between commodities and gold can be expected to remain intact.

A systemic failure is on the cards
All this assumes that within the context of the bank credit cycle there is not a significant systemic failure. Given that the forces behind credit contraction today are greater than any time since the 1930s, and possibly for all modern monetary history, that is a vain hope. Last week I pointed out the looming catastrophe for the euro system and the euro. A similar tale can be told about the Japanese yen. And sterling is just a poor man’s version of the dollar without its hegemony status.

In the event of a systemic crisis, the role of central banks will be to underwrite their entire commercial banking system. The consequences of letting Lehman go bankrupt on the last cycle of bank credit contraction did not serve as a warning to profligate bankers. Instead, it had us all staring into a systemic abyss, and that mistake will not be repeated. In a systemic crisis today, it will take unprecedented currency and credit creation by the central banks to save the financial world. And it’s that debasement that will end up collapsing fiat currencies.

Meanwhile, we can expect central banks to milk the transitory inflation story for all its worth. Forget the CPI rising at 8%+ they will say. It will soon return to the 2% target as recession bites. But that’s another excuse to ease policy. It might buy just a little more time before the crisis hits. But don’t bank on it.

Manipulation becomes official
Earlier this month, three JPMorgan Chase traders faced a federal trial in Chicago, accused of masterminding a massive eight-year scheme to manipulate international markets for precious metals by spoofing, including gold and silver. JPMorgan had already been fined $920m in 2020.

Coincidently, Peter Hambro who was a gold trader in London in the early days of the derivatives market described how the bullion banks created unallocated gold accounts. One of Hambros’ more interesting comments was about the role of the authorities:

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-upcoming-recession

Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
Ripple CEO on partnership with BNY to serve as custodian of stablecoin
00:01:12
Brad Garlinghouse In Washington 🚀

It’s time for a fair and open level playing field.

Under Gary Gensler it was quite the opposite.

  • Brad Garlinghouse
    July 9, 2025
00:01:56
More Of The Same...l

🚨 JUST IN: Patriot Tom Fitton, who has been fighting DOJ and FBI to release documents for years, has practically thrown in the towel.

👉 "The justice department and the FBI are irredeemably compromised and corrupted.
The leadership needs to understand that and act accordingly." ~Tom Fitton

00:01:30
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🎁 As of July 8th there have been 84 VERI SmartMetal NFT Activations (1.3%). With shipments ramping up, we witness the corresponding jump in activations.

Need help getting started? Check out our knowledge base to get the info you need: https://veridao.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/51000487052-what-are-the-nft-activation-steps

👉Interested in which NFTs have been activated? Check them out here:
https://basescan.org/token/0x4516a5d613c30a36d157d3b579813734cbb929a4

post photo preview

🚨BREAKING: The US House Committee on Financial Services says that next week the House will deliver on President Trump's call to make the US the "crypto capital of the world!

post photo preview
Brinc Launches Web3 Accelerator with Octopus, XDC & IDA

Brinc Launches Web3 Accelerator with Octopus, XDC & IDA to Transform Hong Kong’s Loyalty and Payment Systems.

Read more: https://www.brinc.io/blog/brinc-launches-octopus-backed-web3-accelerator-program-to-revolutionize-hong-kongs-retail-loyalty-and-payment-ecosystem-with-xdc-and-ida-as-key-web3-infrastructure-partners/

🔗 Startups can apply from July 10

📅 Launching Sept 8

Learn more about the Web3 Accelerator program and apply now: https://www.brinc.io/stablecoin-accelerator/

post photo preview
Musk Turns On Starlink to Save Iranians from Regime’s Internet Crackdown

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a visionary behind SpaceX, has flipped the switch on Starlink, delivering internet to Iranians amid a brutal regime crackdown.

This move comes on the heels of Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the Islamic Republic cuts off online access.

The former Department of Government Efficiency chief activated Starlink satellite internet service for Iranians on Saturday following the Islamic Republic's decision to impose nationwide internet restrictions.

As the Jerusalem Post reports, that the Islamic Republic’s Communications Ministry announced the move, stating, "In view of the special conditions of the country, temporary restrictions have been imposed on the country’s internet."

This action followed a series of Israeli attacks on Iranian targets.

Starlink, a SpaceX-developed satellite constellation, provides high-speed internet to regions with limited connectivity, such as remote areas or conflict zones.

Elizabeth MacDonald, a Fox News contributor, highlighted its impact, noting, "Elon Musk turning on Starlink for Iran in 2022 was a game changer. Starlink connects directly to SpaceX satellites, bypassing Iran’s ground infrastructure. That means even during government-imposed shutdowns or censorship, users can still get online, and reportedly more than 100,000 inside Iran are doing that."

During the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, Starlink enabled Iranians to communicate and share footage globally despite network blackouts," she added.

MacDonald also mentioned ongoing tests of "direct-to-cell" capabilities, which could allow smartphone connections without a dish, potentially expanding access and supporting free expression and protest coordination.

Musk confirmed the activation, noting on Saturday, "The beams are on."

This follows the regime’s internet shutdowns, which were triggered by Israeli military actions.

Adding to the tension, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people on Friday, urging resistance against the regime.

"Israel's fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,” he said.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch, called on military and security forces to abandon the regime, accusing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a Persian-language social media post of forcing Iranians into an unwanted war.

Starlink has been a beacon in other crises. Beyond Iran, Musk has leveraged Starlink to assist people during natural disasters and conflicts.

In the wake of hurricanes and earthquakes, Starlink has provided critical internet access to affected communities, enabling emergency communications and coordination.

Similarly, during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Musk activated Starlink to support Ukrainian forces and civilians, ensuring they could maintain contact and access vital information under dire circumstances.

The genius entrepreneur, is throwing a lifeline to the oppressed in Iran, and the libs can’t stand it.

Conservative talk show host Mark Levin praised Musk’s action, reposting a message stating that Starlink would "reconnect the Iranian people with the internet and put the final nail in the coffin of the Iranian regime."

"God bless you, Elon. The Starlink beams are on in Iran!" Levin wrote.

Musk, who recently stepped down from leading the DOGE in the Trump administration, has apologized to President Trump for past criticisms, including his stance on the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Source

🙏 Donations Accepted 🙏

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

🔗 Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! Namasté 🙏 Crypto Michael ⚡  The Dinarian

Read full Article
post photo preview
GENIUS Act lets State banks conduct some business nationwide. Regulators object

The Senate passed the GENIUS Act for stablecoins last week, but significant work remains before it becomes law. The House has a different bill, the STABLE Act, with notable differences that must be reconciled. State banking regulators have raised strong objections to a provision in the GENIUS Act that would allow state banks to operate nationwide without authorization from host states or a federal regulator.

The controversial clause permits a state bank with a regulated stablecoin subsidiary to provide money transmitter and custodial services in any other state. While host states can impose consumer protection laws, they cannot require the usual authorization and oversight typically needed for out-of-state banking operations.

The Conference of State Bank Supervisors welcomed some changes in the GENIUS Act but remains adamantly opposed to this particular provision. In a statement, CSBS said:

“Critical changes must be made during House consideration of the legislation to prevent unintended consequences and further mitigate financial stability risks. CSBS remains concerned with the dramatic and unsupported expansion of the authority of uninsured banks to conduct money transmission or custody activities nationwide without the approval or oversight of host state supervisors (Sec. 16(d)).”

The National Conference of State Legislatures expressed similar concerns in early June, stating:

“We urge you to oppose Section 16(d) and support state authority to regulate financial services in a manner that reflects local conditions, priorities and risk tolerances. Preserving the dual banking system and respecting state autonomy is essential to the safety, soundness and diversity of our nation’s financial sector.”

Evolution of nationwide authorization

Section 16 addresses several issues beyond stablecoins, including preventing a recurrence of the SEC’s SAB 121, which forced crypto assets held in custody onto balance sheets. However, the nationwide authorization subsection was added after the legislation cleared the Senate Banking Committee, with two significant modifications since then.

Originally, the provision applied only to special bank charters like Wyoming’s Special Purpose Depository Institutions or Connecticut’s Innovation Banks. Examples include crypto-focused Custodia Bank and crypto exchange Kraken in Wyoming, plus traditional finance player Fnality US in Connecticut. Recently the scope was expanded to cover most state chartered banks with stablecoin subsidiaries, possibly due to concerns about competitive advantages.

Simultaneously, the clause was substantially tightened. The initial version allowed state chartered banks to provide money transmission and custody services nationwide for any type of asset, which would include cryptocurrencies. Now these activities can only be conducted by the stablecoin subsidiary, and while Section 16(d) doesn’t explicitly limit services to stablecoins, the GENIUS Act currently restricts issuers to stablecoin related activities.

However, the House STABLE Act takes a more permissive approach, allowing regulators to decide which non-stablecoin activities are permitted. If the House version prevails in reconciliation, it could result in a significant expansion of allowed nationwide banking activities beyond stablecoins.

Is it that bad?

As originally drafted, the clause seemed overly permissive.

The amended clause makes sense for stablecoin issuers. They want to have a single regulator and be able to provide the stablecoin services throughout the United States. But it also leans into the perception outside of crypto that this is just another form of regulatory arbitrage.

The controversy over Section 16(d) reflects concerns about creating a regulatory gap that allows banks to operate interstate without the oversight typically required from either federal or state authorities. As the two Congressional chambers work toward reconciliation, lawmakers must decide whether stablecoin legislation should include provisions that effectively reduce traditional banking oversight requirements.

Source

🙏 Donations Accepted 🙏

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

🔗 Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! Namasté 🙏 Crypto Michael ⚡  The Dinarian

Read full Article
post photo preview
Dubai regulator VARA classifies RWA issuance as licensed activity
Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) leads global regulatory framework - makes RWA issuance licensed activity in Dubai.

Real-world assets (RWAs) issuance is now licensed activity in Dubai.

~ Actual law.
~ Not a legal gray zone.
~ Not a whitepaper fantasy.

RWA issuance and listing on secondary markets is defined under binding crypto regulation.

It’s execution by Dubai.

Irina Heaver explained:

“RWA issuance is no longer theoretical. It’s now a regulatory reality.”

VARA defined:

- RWAs are classified as Asset-Referenced Virtual Assets (ARVAs)

- Secondary market trading is permitted under VARA license

- Issuers need capital, audits, and legal disclosures

- Regulated broker-dealers and exchanges can now onboard and trade them

This closes the gap that killed STOs in 2018.

No more tokenization without venues.
No more assets without liquidity.

UAE is doing what Switzerland, Singapore, and Europe still haven’t:

Creating enforceable frameworks for RWA tokenization that actually work.

Matthew White, CEO of VARA, said it perfectly:

“Tokenization will redefine global finance in 2025.”

He’s not exaggerating.

$500B+ market predicted next year.

And the UAE just gave it legal rails.

~Real estate.
~Private credit.
~Shariah-compliant products.

Everything is in play.

This is how you turn hype into infrastructure.

What Dubai is doing now is 3 years ahead of everyone else.

Founders, investors, ecosystem builders:

You want to build real-world assets onchain.

Don’t waste another year waiting for clarity.

Come to Dubai.

It’s already here.

 

Source

🙏 Donations Accepted 🙏

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

🔗 Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! Namasté 🙏 Crypto Michael ⚡  The Dinarian

 

Read full Article
See More
Available on mobile and TV devices
google store google store app store app store
google store google store app tv store app tv store amazon store amazon store roku store roku store
Powered by Locals