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⚠️The Great Reset: The Bond Yield-Dollar Feedback Loop⚠️
October 01, 2022
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The Great Reset is upon us.

All things as we have known and have becomecomfortably numbwith, such as zero interest rates, negative real interest rates, quantitative easing (digital money printing), and Pax Americana, [and central bank dominance of the U.S. bond market] are being upended and overturned. Beware ofrecency bias, folks, as the global structural shifts and changes are now ubiquitous. –GMM, Sep 23rd

Here’s a quick primer that may explain the current global macro dynamic between the strong dollar and rising bond yields. We’ve been beating this drum for years.

Central Banks Will Be Net Sellers Of Treasury Securities

Central banks, both foreign and the Fed, who are and have never been price and market sensitive, have been the predominant buyers of Treasury coupon securities over the past 20 years.

Look at the following table from aJuly 2021 post, which set the stage for the inflation we are now experiencing.

Granted, the massive ramp in the budget deficit during COVID – to a 12-month trailing high of19 percent of GDP in March 2021– is unlikely to repeat, but ditto for the Fed’s Treasury purchases. The markets did not have the ability to absorb such a massive new issuance without a major financial disruption and a spike in interest rates.

The markets will now have to absorb or step in and replace both the Fed’s demand as the balance sheet runs off (effective net Treasury selling) and the foreign central bank selling. Both have now morphed from the largest buyers to net sellers.

Also, note from the above table the Fed’s purchase of almost 200 percent of TIPs issuance during the period; that is, all of it and then some. Inflation expectations? Managed!

China Selling Treasury Holdings

Once the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, China has sold down its holdings by over 26 percent from its November 2013 peak. We also have no doubt Japan’s holdings are down from the latest observation in July. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seems more comfortable with a weakening yen but not at the recent rapid clip, which forced them to intervene in the currency market.

Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Thursday to buy yen for the first time since 1998, in an attempt to shore up the battered currency after the Bank of Japan stuck with ultra-low interest rates. –Reuters, Sep 22nd

Global Capital Flows And The Great Financial Crisis

Before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the Fed raised its policy rate by 425 basis points, and long-term yields barely budged. Were financial markets efficient in anticipating the GFC?

Hardly. The technical position of the yield curve contributed to and helped cause the GFC.

Alan Greenspan argued that the Fed lost control of the U.S. yield curve. Foreign central banks recycled their massive dollar purchases back into the U.S. bond market after intervening in home markets to keep their currencies from appreciating. Central banks were still reeling from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, which taught them a hard lesson about letting currencies become too overvalued.

The foreign central bank Treasury purchases suppressed long-term rates and allowed the credit and housing bubble to continue for much longer than the Fed anticipated and desired.

Looking back, he [Alan Greenspan] says today: “We tried in 2004 to move long-term rates higher in order to get mortgage interest rates up and take some of the fizz out of the housing market.But we failed.” Something besides Fed policy was at work. Both Mr. Greenspan and his successor, Ben Bernanke, point to an unanticipated surge in capital pouring into the U.S. from overseas. –Council of Foreign Relations

Are We Now In A Rising Bond Yield/Strong Dollar Feedback Loop?

In our 2017 post,Orwellian Monetary Policy, we posited that tighter domestic monetary policy in a globalized capital market could, in effect, and paradoxically, create looser domestic financial conditions as foreign capital is sucked back into the U.S. markets. We suspect that is what happened before the GFC and agree with Greenspan and Bernake on this point.

We wrote in the dystopian 1984 language,

“Tightening is Easing”

Today’s World

The moves in exchange and interest rates over the past few months have been violent.

We suspect we are now in a bond yield-dollar feedback loop, where many central banks are forced to intervene in their home currency markets, selling their Treasury holdings to raise the dollars to ease the pressure on the home currency.

On the margin – and prices are set by marginal buyers and sellers — their actions put downward pressure on U.S. bond prices, causing yields to rise.

We are unsure whether this is a reality or GMM fitting reality to a nice theory, but we deduce it fits the action we are currently witnessing in the global markets.

The same is true forall central banks whose currenciesare under pressure. Witness the positive feedback loop.

Reflexivity

Reflexivity in economics is the theory that a feedback loop exists in which investors’ perceptions affect economic fundamentals, which in turn changes investor perception. The theory of reflexivity has its roots in sociology, but in the world of economics and finance, its primary proponent isGeorge Soros. –Invetopedia

We don’t know if the markets are in a period of Soros’ reflexivity, where traders and investors understand the above model and are trading on it, causing yields to rise and the dollar to strengthen even further in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

We suspect it is so; in the same spirit of Milton Friedman’s pool player analogy, acting as if they understand the laws of physics even though they don’t.

Consider the problem of predicting the shots made by an expert billiard player. It seems not at all unreasonable that excellent predictions would be yielded by the hypothesis that the billiard player made his shots as if he knew the complicated mathematical formulas that would give the optimum directions of travel, could estimate accurately by eye the angles, etc., describing the location of the balls, could make lightning calculations from the formulas, and could then make the balls travel in the direction indicated by the formulas. Our confidence in this hypothesis is not based on the belief that billiard players, even expert ones, can or do go through the process described; it derives rather from the belief that, unless in some way or other they were capable of reaching essentially the same result, they would not in fact be expert billiard players. – Milton Friedman,Essays in Positive Economic, 1953

Where Are The Dollars Going?

Moreover, where is all the liquidity going from the King-Kong dollar strength?

Our priors are more, or some are being transferred from foreign central bank holdings of Treasuries into private sector hands and recycled back into the U.S. short-end bond and money markets.

Nobody knows for sure, but after three 75 bps rate hikes and quantitative tightening well underway, one would think that money liquidity would be shrinking. However, it doesn’t seem to be the case as the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility remains at record highs.

We suspect foreign capital is flowing into the short-end, which now provides decent yields of 3-4 percent, giving the gorilla strength to the U.S. dollar.

Are Financial Conditions Tight?

After the jumbo rate hikes and $90 billion per month being drained from the domestic financial markets as the notes and bonds roll off the Fed’s balance sheet, one would think so.

Our favorite indicator of U.S. financial conditions,, theChicago Fed’s National Financial Condition Index (NFCI), a weighted average of a large number of variables (105 measures of financial activity). tells a different story, however. Financial conditions remain slightly loose.

Upshot

The U.S. financial markets are still flush with too much money, and the Fed has once again lost control of events. Something big will eventually break, but in the words of the great-late MIT professor Rudy Dornbush,

In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.Rudiger Dornbusch

Because we have reached the tipping point of excess money, liquidity, capital, or however you define it, which are creating global inflationary pressures, don’t count on the monetary cavalry coming to the rescue anytime soon or returning to the good old days of hurricane force central bank headwinds.

Look how markets reacted to the U.K.’s unfunded tax cuts this week.

Britain’s new government announceda sweeping series of tax cutson Friday, betting it had found the path to economic growth despite high inflation.

But the market verdict was swift and negative: The value of British stocks and bonds fell sharply, while the pound sank to lows against the U.S. dollar not seen since 1985. –NY Times

⚠️The Great Reset is upon us, folks. Don’t fight it⚠️

We expect global policymakers will eventually be forced to coordinate their actions.

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Fund Tokenization Prepares Asset Managers for ‘Perfect Storm’

Synopsis:

  • Great Wealth Transfer will see $84 trillion of intragenerational asset transfer over the next 20 years
  • Gen Y and Z investors favor investment in alternative asset types, which tokenization makes more investable for HNW clients
  • Tokenization encourages platform changes, and will ultimately bring additional operational benefits

A triumvirate of large-scale market changes are set to transform the asset management industry over the next decade.

With trillions of dollars worth of assets set to flow into the wallets of Gen X, Y, and Z investors, much of which will accumulate onchain, asset managers who move first to serve this new market will gain an advantage in capturing this revenue opportunity. The immediate opportunity is similar to when the ETF format was introduced in 1993, with first-mover State Street launching the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)—now one of the largest ETFs globally. The tokenized asset format is today’s generational opportunity.

Tokenization can unlock accessibility to alternative asset types and more composable assets and structures, enabling a significant change in how investors manage portfolios. With greater automation and rules-based investment allocations, entirely new strategies could also become economically viable. Integrating existing platforms with next-generation digital systems will enable the industry to modernize in stages, ultimately allowing for the adoption of new asset types at scale.

The forthcoming vicennial transformation of the industry will enable it to transform and emerge triumphant. Those at the forefront of this technology evolution stand to dominate and shape the future of asset management.

 

Great Wealth Transfer prompts global investment shake-up

The asset management industry is on the cusp of the largest wealth transfer event ever, set to last for the next two decades. Consulting firm Cerulli Associates estimates $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands as wealth passes from the baby boomer generation to Gen X, Y, and Z investors.

However, the investment behavior of these younger benefactors differs significantly from their forebears in two ways. Holding Web3 wallets and accounts on Robinhood, rather than brokerage accounts like their parents, millennials are opting for a more self-service model in their long-term holdings. Add to that the shift in risk appetite, searching for higher growth through less conventional asset types like private markets and crypto, and the need for the industry to transform quickly is clear.

Whilst the industry is not currently set up to offer this new investor class more customization, as opposed to one-size-fits-all product offerings, an 80% majority of asset managers believe customization for the masses will be an important investment strategy in the next five years.

 
 

                                          Ryan Lovell, Chainlink Labs

 

While asset managers could build their own proprietary blockchain infrastructure and smart contract systems from the ground up, that approach would require significant resources and specialized engineers, extend time to market, and be at higher risk of technical vulnerabilities or implementation errors. On the other hand, fully outsourcing the implementation would leave them with limited roadmap control, interoperability, and customizability, along with dependency risks.

Ryan Lovell, director of capital markets at Chainlink Labs, commented: “That’s why leading asset managers are taking a hybrid approach, leveraging both existing systems and Chainlink’s decentralized infrastructure to implement modular solutions that can scale across multiple blockchains.”

 

Industry transformation through tokenization

The launch of tokenized funds by firms such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity International has created a need for the fund administration industry to evolve to an onchain format. However, nearly all, 93% of fund services firms, have not automated data inputs, data checks, and key workflows, so their operations are still manually intensive, leading to increased operational costs, reduced liquidity, and missed investment opportunities. Standard transfer agent processing can take between one and three days for routine transactions, and between five and seven days for complex cases requiring additional compliance checks, cross-border settlements, or manual document verification.

“Operational efficiency is just the starting point of tokenizing funds,” said Lovell. “The real value is meeting the needs of future investors who are increasingly accumulating wealth across multiple blockchain networks.”

In order to reach this new onchain world, asset managers and their service providers may not want to make a huge investment to completely change their infrastructure, but instead adapt their existing systems to make them compatible with multiple blockchains.

For example, in November 2024, SBI Digital Markets, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink completed the implementation of a tokenized fund to demonstrate how existing fund administration processes can be successfully made compatible with tokenized funds.

SBI Digital Markets, as a custodian and fund distributor, used smart contracts, oracle networks, and multiple blockchains to automate its processes. One of the key components was the digital transfer agent smart contract, which used multiple oracle networks from Chainlink and its blockchain-agnostic architecture to create a unified golden record.

Lovell compared the digital transfer agent to an offchain/onchain coordinator that does everything that a traditional transfer agent does, but in digital form.

“It does not replace the existing system but enables firms to be compatible with blockchain and then offer a service that can scale to all their customers,” he said. “Asset managers should be demanding this from their service providers.”

The pilot showed that a tokenized fund could maintain its share register on one blockchain while using Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to enable the processing of intensive fund lifecycle activities such as subscriptions and redemptions on different blockchains while meeting institutional security and compliance standards.

Swift, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink also settled tokenized fund subscriptions and redemptions using the Swift network, which enables payments with fiat currencies across more than 11,500 financial institutions in over 200 countries.

                                     Winston Quek, SBI Digital Markets

Winston Quek, CEO at SBI Digital Markets, said in a statement: “This new way of launching fund structures and administering them via smart contracts empowers both fund managers and their service providers to deliver new onchain financial products and lower operational costs to investors, both things they are actively looking for.”

In addition to lowering costs, using blockchains increases transparency and allows real-time reconciliation between the fund distributor and the fund issuer. Lovell highlighted that Chainlink can also use the same architecture to enable investors who want to hold tokens that are backed by offchain assets, settle these tokens across any blockchain, incorporate data that is needed to process transactions onchain, such as NAV data, and coordinate payments between distributors and the asset managers.

In the U.S. there are requirements around private and public funds and Chainlink enables asset managers to consolidate and consume onchain record keeping while fulfilling regulatory obligations. U.S. funds also require the distributor to onboard users and buy and sell the fund while the custodian and fund accountant provide reporting data.

“We allow all of those service providers to coordinate outside of their firewalls,” said Lovell. “Chainlink’s goal is to enable the TradFi and DeFi worlds to seamlessly connect, which increases utility.”

 

The Great Wealth Transfer is driving asset management onchain

With $84 trillion set to flow from baby boomers to Gen X, Y, and Z, their demand for alternative asset types and customization will shape the future of asset management. While today’s systems may be prohibitively expensive to offer these benefits at scale, tokenization changes the economics.

Tokenized funds by BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity International have already proven the demand for onchain assets, while a solution by SBI Digital Markets, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink has demonstrated the operational efficiencies of blockchain technology and how onchain assets can be provided at scale.

The choice is clear for asset managers and service providers: embrace the tokenization revolution and lead the next era of finance or risk being left behind. Those who act now will not only gain a first-mover advantage but also shape the future of the industry.

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Stellar's Ecosystem Surges Forward: Smart Contracts, Lightning Speed, and Real-World Impact in 2025

The Stellar blockchain ecosystem is experiencing remarkable momentum in 2025, with groundbreaking technical achievements and expanding real-world adoption that position it as a major player in the decentralized finance landscape. From lightning-fast transaction speeds to innovative smart contract capabilities, Stellar is demonstrating that blockchain technology can deliver both performance and practical utility.

Technical Breakthroughs Drive Performance

The Stellar Development Foundation's Q1 2025 quarterly report reveals impressive technical milestones that showcase the network's maturation. The platform now processes an astounding 5,000 transactions per second with remarkably fast 2.5-second block times, putting it among the fastest blockchain networks in operation today.

This performance leap isn't just about raw numbers—it represents Stellar's commitment to creating infrastructure that can handle real-world demand. Whether it's cross-border payments, asset tokenization, or decentralized applications, the network's enhanced capabilities provide the foundation for scalable blockchain solutions.

Smart Contracts Get Smarter with Soroban

One of the most significant developments has been the launch and continued evolution of Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform. The introduction of Contract Copilot represents a major advancement in developer experience, enabling faster and safer smart contract development through enhanced tooling and guidance.

This focus on developer experience is crucial for ecosystem growth. By lowering barriers to entry and improving the development process, Stellar is positioning itself to attract innovative projects and talented developers who might otherwise choose competing platforms.

New Token Standards Meet Market Needs

The Stellar Development Foundation has introduced new token standards developed specifically based on feedback from developers and institutional users. This responsive approach to platform development demonstrates Stellar's commitment to building technology that meets actual market needs rather than theoretical requirements.

These standards are particularly important as institutional adoption continues to grow, with organizations requiring robust, compliant, and flexible token frameworks for their blockchain initiatives.

Global USDC Integration Expands Utility

The integration of USDC across Stellar's global network represents a significant milestone for practical cryptocurrency adoption. Stablecoins like USDC provide the price stability necessary for everyday transactions and business operations, making them crucial for blockchain platforms seeking real-world utility.

This integration is particularly impactful in emerging markets, where access to stable digital currencies can provide financial services to underbanked populations and facilitate more efficient cross-border transactions.

Industry Events Build Community Momentum

The Stellar ecosystem's growing influence is evident in its presence at major industry events. The foundation's participation as a sponsor at Consensus 2025 in Toronto and Digital Assets Week in New York demonstrates its commitment to engaging with builders, investors, and institutional leaders across the blockchain space.

These events serve as crucial networking opportunities and platforms for showcasing innovative projects within the Stellar ecosystem. Recent Meridian events have highlighted creative projects like Skyhitz and HoneyCoin, illustrating the collaborative spirit and diverse applications being built on the platform.

Real-World Impact in Emerging Markets

Perhaps most importantly, Stellar's growth isn't just about technical metrics—it's about real-world impact. The platform's focus on emerging markets addresses genuine financial inclusion challenges, providing efficient payment rails and access to digital financial services where traditional banking infrastructure may be limited.

This practical approach to blockchain implementation sets Stellar apart from projects that focus primarily on speculative trading or theoretical use cases. By solving actual problems for real users, Stellar is building sustainable demand for its technology.

Looking Ahead: Enterprise-Grade Infrastructure

Stellar positions itself as offering enterprise-grade asset tokenization alongside its DeFi capabilities and payment infrastructure. This comprehensive approach makes it attractive to institutions looking for a single platform that can handle multiple blockchain use cases.

The combination of fast transactions, low costs, smart contract capabilities, and regulatory-conscious development creates a compelling value proposition for enterprises considering blockchain adoption.

The Road Forward

As 2025 progresses, Stellar's ecosystem appears well-positioned for continued growth. The technical infrastructure improvements, developer-focused enhancements, and real-world adoption initiatives create a strong foundation for expanding use cases and user adoption.

The blockchain industry has seen many projects promise revolutionary capabilities, but Stellar's focus on delivering measurable performance improvements and practical solutions suggests a mature approach to blockchain development. With transaction speeds that rival traditional payment systems and growing institutional adoption, Stellar is demonstrating that blockchain technology can move beyond experimental phases into mainstream utility.

For developers, institutions, and users looking for blockchain solutions that prioritize both performance and practical applicability, Stellar's 2025 developments represent significant progress toward a more accessible and useful decentralized financial ecosystem.

Source: The Dinarian ⚡ Claude AI

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Soroban Security Audit Bank: Raising the Standard for Smart Contract Security

The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) is deeply committed to helping ensure that the highest security standards are available for projects building on the Stellar network. Last year SDF launched the Soroban Security Audit Bank, an initiative to provide projects access to auditing experts and tooling that are proven to help prevent hacks by catching potential bugs, inefficiencies, and security flaws before contracts go live. Through the Soroban Security Audit Bank, we’re empowering teams building on Soroban with comprehensive security audits from leading audit firms, enhanced readiness support, and robust tooling, significantly elevating the ecosystem’s safety and efficiency.

Since launch, the Soroban Security Audit Bank has successfully conducted over 40 essential audits, deploying over $3 million to support security of the smart contracts on Stellar. Check it out!

 

Ecosystem Success Stories: How the Soroban Audit Bank Drives Security Forward

By making automated formal verification available to developers, in addition to allocating significant budget for securing many of the top DeFi protocols built on top of Stellar, SDF has established a new security standard in the Web3 ecosystem. Mooly Sagiv, Co-Founder of Certora
SDF has been a strong partner as we’ve worked with teams across the Stellar ecosystem. SDF’s Audit Bank initiative allows for a smooth and streamlined review process, and is a clear reflection of the Stellar ecosystem’s enhanced commitment to security. Robert Chen, CEO of OtterSec
 

Leading projects within the Soroban ecosystem have highlighted the impact of the Audit Bank

Finding a good auditor is difficult, expensive, and high-stakes. The Audit Bank streamlines the process and supports ecosystem projects with security review at critical growth milestones. Markus Paulson, Co-Founder of Script3
The audit firms we worked with deeply understood the full ecosystem and the underlying protocols used. Their expertise and the tools from the Audit Bank strengthened our security and supported user and investor trust. Esteban Iglesias Manríquez, Co-Founder of Palta.Labs

What's New in 2025: Enhanced Audit Support for Soroban Builders

Teams building financial protocols, high-dependency data services, high-traction dApps funded by the Stellar Community Fund are able to request an audit and will typically be matched with a reputable audit firm within two weeks. We recently restructured the program for this year to enhance audit efficiency and incentivize accountability, and rapid and complete vulnerability remediation:

  • Complimentary Initial Audit: Projects will need to contribute 5% of the audit cost upfront, but this co-payment amount is eligible for a full refund, provided that critical, high, and medium vulnerabilities identified are swiftly remediated within 20 business days of receiving the initial audit report (learn more).
  • Incentivized Security at Key Traction Milestones: Complimentary, extensive follow-up audits are available as projects achieve critical traction milestones (e.g., $10M and $100M TVL). These audits include deeper assessments such as formal verification or competitive audits, significantly boosting project security at pivotal stages.
  • Advanced Security Tooling: Projects can enhance their security self-serve through complimentary or discounted access to specialized tooling, which provide vulnerability detection and formal verification capabilities (see full list of available tooling). These tools are encouraged to capture ‘easy-to-spot’ issues prior to audit as well as a final check post-audit to increase the effectiveness and thoroughness of audits.
  • Enhanced Audit Readiness Support: Projects receive structured preparation support, including the implementation of best practices and security standards based on the STRIDE threat modeling framework. This ensures project teams are thoroughly prepared, optimizing audit efficiency and minimizing delays.

Get Started Today

If you're already funded through the Stellar Community Fund, meet the criteria and ready to secure your smart contracts, check your email for an invitation to submit an audit request–if you haven’t received one, contact [email protected].

If you haven't built on Stellar yet, we encourage you to start your journey with the Stellar Community Fund to become eligible for future security audits and ecosystem support. For any broader questions on the program, contact [email protected].

Also, we’re organizing an exciting series of workshops–join us for the kick-off on Soroban Security Best Practices on Friday, May 30, 2025 at 2 PM ET on @StellarOrg. Together, we're shaping a secure and resilient future for smart contracts on Stellar.

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