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šŸ’„Bitcoin Gains Momentum on Fed Pivot Narrative, But Some Banks Anticipate Dollar ReboundšŸ’„
Bitcoin rose above $20,000 soon before press time, extending Monday's "ISM-induced" gains as dollar continued to lose ground.
October 04, 2022
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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to build bullish momentum, hoping that financial stability risks and signs of economic slowdown will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pivot away from aggressive liquidity withdrawal measures. However, some observers are unconvinced the Fed will abandon or dramatically slow the so-called liquidity tightening anytime soon and expect renewed dollar strength.

The top cryptocurrency by market value reached a high of $20,150 soon before press time, registering a 2% gain for the day. The dollar index fell to a nine-day low of 11, having hit a two-decade high of 114.77 on Sept. 28.

Bitcoin buyers stepped in on Monday after the U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 50.9 in September, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 52.8 in August. Notably, the index's new orders and employment measures contracted, strengthening the case for the Fed pivot.

"It’s been a case of ā€˜bad news is good news’ for equities, with the market treating the downside surprise to the ISM index as increasing the chances of an earlier Fed pause, seen as positive for risk assets," the Bank of New Zealand's research team wrote in clients early Tuesday. Bitcoin tends to move more or less in line with equities and has halved this year in terms of market value, with the Fed raising rates by 300 basis points.

Expectations that the Fed and other major central banks would slow tightening gripped the market last week after the Bank of England (BOE)announceda bond purchase program, popularly known as quantitative easing, to ensure the orderly functioning of the government bond market.

"What the Bank of England did was a template for what others are likely to do," Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told Bloomberg. "The soaring dollar has been associated in the past with creating financial crisis on a global basis. We have to have a global perspective on this."

The Fed fund futures show traders are again pricing rate cuts from May 2023. And while the market still sees a high chance of yet another 75 basis point rate hike next month, the pricing for the terminal rate (the peak rate) has come down to 4.4% from 4.75%.

However, analysts at ING believe central banks' inflation fight is far from over.

"Markets are smelling blood in the water, but do they have enough evidence to price a policy turnaround? Not yet in our view," ING's analysts wrote in a note to clients. "The BoE’s reluctance to buy gilts [U.K. government bonds] is a sign that it hasn’t given up the fight against inflation."

While some Fed speakers have recently expressed concerns about the spillover effects of a stronger dollar, ING analysts are of the opinion that economic conditions don't warrant a pivot.

"Despite somewhat weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing figures yesterday, the U.S. domestic story remains rather solid, leaving the Fed tightening prospects alive even if markets have recently revised the expected terminal rate to sub 4.50% levels," analysts said in a note explaining why the dollar pullback may not have legs.

Analysts added that Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) – the monthly U.S. jobs data – might trigger a hawkish or pro-tightening repricing of Fed expectations.

Swedbank's Chief FX Strategist Anders Eklof said in a daily note that the recent rally in risk assets is mainly a function of an oversold market benefitting from the BOE intervention and may falter.

"A US NFP on the weak side is needed to keep the rally going. Best guess is dollar will soon be bought back," Eklof noted.

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It’s time for a fair and open level playing field.

Under Gary Gensler it was quite the opposite.

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Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? šŸ”œ

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

šŸ‘‰ Here’s what you need to know:

šŸ’  'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
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🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

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šŸŽ As of July 8th there have been 84 VERI SmartMetal NFT Activations (1.3%). With shipments ramping up, we witness the corresponding jump in activations.

Need help getting started? Check out our knowledge base to get the info you need: https://veridao.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/51000487052-what-are-the-nft-activation-steps

šŸ‘‰Interested in which NFTs have been activated? Check them out here:
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🚨BREAKING: The US House Committee on Financial Services says that next week the House will deliver on President Trump's call to make the US the "crypto capital of the world!

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Brinc Launches Web3 Accelerator with Octopus, XDC & IDA

Brinc Launches Web3 Accelerator with Octopus, XDC & IDA to Transform Hong Kong’s Loyalty and Payment Systems.

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šŸ”— Startups can apply from July 10

šŸ“… Launching Sept 8

Learn more about the Web3 Accelerator program and apply now: https://www.brinc.io/stablecoin-accelerator/

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Musk Turns On Starlink to Save Iranians from Regime’s Internet Crackdown

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a visionary behind SpaceX, has flipped the switch on Starlink, delivering internet to Iranians amid a brutal regime crackdown.

This move comes on the heels of Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the Islamic Republic cuts off online access.

The former Department of Government Efficiency chief activated Starlink satellite internet service for Iranians on Saturday following the Islamic Republic's decision to impose nationwide internet restrictions.

As the Jerusalem PostĀ reports, that the Islamic Republic’s Communications Ministry announced the move, stating, "In view of the special conditions of the country, temporary restrictions have been imposed on the country’s internet."

This action followed a series of Israeli attacks on Iranian targets.

Starlink, a SpaceX-developed satellite constellation, provides high-speed internet to regions with limited connectivity, such as remote areas or conflict zones.

Elizabeth MacDonald, a Fox News contributor, highlighted its impact, noting, "Elon Musk turning on Starlink for Iran in 2022 was a game changer. Starlink connects directly to SpaceX satellites, bypassing Iran’s ground infrastructure. That means even during government-imposed shutdowns or censorship, users can still get online, and reportedly more than 100,000 inside Iran are doing that."

During the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, Starlink enabled Iranians to communicate and share footage globally despite network blackouts," she added.

MacDonald also mentioned ongoing tests of "direct-to-cell" capabilities, which could allow smartphone connections without a dish, potentially expanding access and supporting free expression and protest coordination.

Musk confirmed the activation, noting on Saturday, "The beams are on."

This follows the regime’s internet shutdowns, which were triggered by Israeli military actions.

Adding to the tension, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people on Friday, urging resistance against the regime.

"Israel's fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,ā€ he said.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch,Ā called onĀ military and security forces to abandon the regime, accusing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a Persian-language social mediaĀ postĀ of forcing Iranians into an unwanted war.

Starlink has been a beacon in other crises. Beyond Iran, Musk has leveraged Starlink to assist people during natural disasters and conflicts.

In the wake of hurricanes and earthquakes, Starlink has provided critical internet access to affected communities, enabling emergency communications and coordination.

Similarly, during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Musk activated Starlink to support Ukrainian forces and civilians, ensuring they could maintain contact and access vital information under dire circumstances.

The genius entrepreneur, is throwing a lifeline to the oppressed in Iran, and the libs can’t stand it.

Conservative talk show host Mark Levin praised Musk’s action,Ā repostingĀ a message stating that Starlink would "reconnect the Iranian people with the internet and put the final nail in the coffin of the Iranian regime."

"God bless you, Elon. The Starlink beams are on in Iran!" LevinĀ wrote.

Musk, who recently stepped down from leading the DOGE in the Trump administration, has apologized to President Trump for past criticisms, including his stance on the One Big Beautiful Bill.

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GENIUS Act lets State banks conduct some business nationwide. Regulators object

The Senate passed the GENIUS Act for stablecoins last week, but significant work remains before it becomes law. The House has a different bill, the STABLE Act, with notable differences that must be reconciled. State banking regulators have raised strong objections to a provision in the GENIUS Act that would allow state banks to operate nationwide without authorization from host states or a federal regulator.

The controversial clause permits a state bank with a regulated stablecoin subsidiary to provide money transmitter and custodial services in any other state. While host states can impose consumer protection laws, they cannot require the usual authorization and oversight typically needed for out-of-state banking operations.

The Conference of State Bank Supervisors welcomed some changes in the GENIUS Act but remains adamantly opposed to this particular provision. In a statement, CSBS said:

ā€œCritical changes must be made during House consideration of the legislation to prevent unintended consequences and further mitigate financial stability risks. CSBS remains concerned with the dramatic and unsupported expansion of the authority of uninsured banks to conduct money transmission or custody activities nationwide without the approval or oversight of host state supervisors (Sec. 16(d)).ā€

The National Conference of State Legislatures expressed similar concerns in early June, stating:

ā€œWe urge you to oppose Section 16(d) and support state authority to regulate financial services in a manner that reflects local conditions, priorities and risk tolerances. Preserving the dual banking system and respecting state autonomy is essential to the safety, soundness and diversity of our nation’s financial sector.ā€

Evolution of nationwide authorization

Section 16 addresses several issues beyond stablecoins, including preventing a recurrence of the SEC’s SAB 121, which forced crypto assets held in custody onto balance sheets. However, the nationwide authorization subsection was added after the legislation cleared the Senate Banking Committee, with two significant modifications since then.

Originally, the provision applied only to special bank charters like Wyoming’s Special Purpose Depository Institutions or Connecticut’s Innovation Banks. Examples include crypto-focused Custodia Bank and crypto exchange Kraken in Wyoming, plus traditional finance player Fnality US in Connecticut. Recently the scope was expanded to cover most state chartered banks with stablecoin subsidiaries, possibly due to concerns about competitive advantages.

Simultaneously, the clause was substantially tightened. The initial version allowed state chartered banks to provide money transmission and custody services nationwide for any type of asset, which would include cryptocurrencies. Now these activities can only be conducted by the stablecoin subsidiary, and while Section 16(d) doesn’t explicitly limit services to stablecoins, the GENIUS Act currently restricts issuers to stablecoin related activities.

However, the House STABLE Act takes a more permissive approach, allowing regulators to decide which non-stablecoin activities are permitted. If the House version prevails in reconciliation, it could result in a significant expansion of allowed nationwide banking activities beyond stablecoins.

Is it that bad?

As originally drafted, the clause seemed overly permissive.

The amended clause makes sense for stablecoin issuers. They want to have a single regulator and be able to provide the stablecoin services throughout the United States. But it also leans into the perception outside of crypto that this is just another form of regulatory arbitrage.

The controversy over Section 16(d) reflects concerns about creating a regulatory gap that allows banks to operate interstate without the oversight typically required from either federal or state authorities. As the two Congressional chambers work toward reconciliation, lawmakers must decide whether stablecoin legislation should include provisions that effectively reduce traditional banking oversight requirements.

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If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

šŸ’³ PayPal:Ā 
1) Simply scan the QR code below šŸ“²
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

šŸ”— Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! NamastĆ© šŸ™ Crypto Michael ⚔ Ā The Dinarian

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Dubai regulator VARA classifies RWA issuance as licensed activity
Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) leads global regulatory framework - makes RWA issuance licensed activity in Dubai.

Real-world assets (RWAs) issuance is now licensed activity in Dubai.

~ Actual law.
~ Not a legal gray zone.
~ Not a whitepaper fantasy.

RWA issuance and listing on secondary markets is defined under binding crypto regulation.

It’s execution by Dubai.

Irina HeaverĀ explained:

ā€œRWA issuance is no longer theoretical. It’s now a regulatory reality.ā€

VARA defined:

- RWAs are classified as Asset-Referenced Virtual Assets (ARVAs)

- Secondary market trading is permitted under VARA license

- Issuers need capital, audits, and legal disclosures

- Regulated broker-dealers and exchanges can now onboard and trade them

This closes the gap that killed STOs in 2018.

No more tokenization without venues.
No more assets without liquidity.

UAE is doing what Switzerland, Singapore, and Europe still haven’t:

Creating enforceable frameworks for RWA tokenization that actually work.

Matthew White, CEO of VARA, said it perfectly:

ā€œTokenization will redefine global finance in 2025.ā€

He’s not exaggerating.

$500B+ market predicted next year.

And the UAE just gave it legal rails.

~Real estate.
~Private credit.
~Shariah-compliant products.

Everything is in play.

This is how you turn hype into infrastructure.

What Dubai is doing now is 3 years ahead of everyone else.

Founders, investors, ecosystem builders:

You want to build real-world assets onchain.

Don’t waste another year waiting for clarity.

Come to Dubai.

It’s already here.

Ā 

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šŸ™ Donations Accepted šŸ™

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

šŸ’³ PayPal:Ā 
1) Simply scan the QR code below šŸ“²
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

šŸ”— Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! NamastĆ© šŸ™ Crypto Michael ⚔ Ā The Dinarian

Ā 

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