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đź’ĄA blockchain-based infrastructure for web2 and web3 AI applicationsđź’Ą
Let's Take A Deep Dive On Fetch.Ai
thedinarian
October 07, 2022
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  • Fetch-ai Network is developing the infrastructure and tooling for creating Web2 and Web3 AI applications.
  • FET is the native token of Fetch-ai Network. The current main use cases for FET include:
    • Staking: FET is an access deposit token that acts as a form of stake to demonstrate the desire to behave appropriately.
    • Value exchange between agents: FET is required for two agents to perform an exchange of value in the ecosystem.
    • AI/ML access: FET token enables development of and access to a broad range of machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks that are available on the ledger.
  • The project consists of the following major components working in conjunction:
    • Fetch-ai blockchain system: a đź’ĄCosmos SDKđź’Ą based self-sovereign blockchain ledger and the supporting tools for developing DApps on the network.
    • Applications built on Fetch-ai: the modular Autonomous Economic Agents (AEAs) and the Digital Twin Platforms that can efficiently and securely communicate peer-to-peer and provide interconnectivity with multiple networks.

Historical daily prices (in USD)

Token Summary

Interesting on-chain metrics that provide a rapid understanding of the state of Fetch

1. Overview

1.1 What is Fetch-ai Network

Fetch-ai Network is a Cambridge-based artificial intelligence lab building an open-access decentralized blockchain based framework with the principal goal of delivering a fully autonomous, agent-based digital economy. The Fetch-ai Network technology stack is built using principles derived from a branch of artificial intelligence known as multi-agent systems. This approach involves solving different problems from the bottom-up by creating individual autonomous software agents that perform actions in the world to accomplish their individual objectives. By combining the actions of multiple agents, it is possible to achieve outcomes that would not be possible with centralized architectures because the environments are too complex, are spatially distributed or involve multiple stakeholders. Blockchain technology involves the design of incentives to successfully coordinate the actions of multiple disinterested parties to achieve a common goal, and can already be seen as the world’s most successful implementation of multi-agent systems. Fetch-ai Network is working to generalize and extend the results from this established research field into new domains in finance, supply chain, mobility, smart cities and IoT applications.

1.2 Token Use Cases

The primary use cases of the FET token are listed below.

  1. Ability to connect agents and nodes to the network: This is an access deposit token that acts as a form of stake to demonstrate the desire to behave appropriately. It modulates the ability for bad actors to flood the network with undesirable nodes or agents due to the escalating cost of doing so.
  2. Value exchange between agents: The FET token is required in order to allow for two agents, regardless of where they are, to perform an exchange of value. The FET token is infinitely divisible, thereby supporting transactions that have very low monetary value, but in aggregate provide new and profound levels of insight.
  3. Access to the digital world: FET tokens are needed to access, view, and interact with the decentralized digital world. This is a space optimized for digital entities: an abstract representation of the real world in many dimensions that allows machines to make sense of and work within. The FET token is needed to gain access to all aspects of this digital world for agents.
  4. Ability to access and develop ledger-based AI/ML algorithms: The FET token enables development of and access to a broad range of machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks that are available on the ledger. These may be primitive services developed by Fetch-ai Network such as: trust and prediction models, or they may be large-scale independently developed services for network users.
  5. For exchange into Fetch-ai Network’s operational fuel: operation costs in Fetch-ai Network are decoupled from the Fetch-ai Network token in a similar way to that of “gas” on the Ethereum network but with additional functionalities designed to increase the stability of such a fuel and look at addressing the issues associated with high and low-velocity economies. Fetch-ai Network’s operational fuel allows access to processor time for contract execution and services for agents.

1.3 Products, technical details, consensus mechanism

The Fetch-ai Network blockchain is an interchain protocol based on the Cosmos-SDK, and uses a high-performance WASM-based smart contract language called Cosmwasm to allow advanced cryptography and machine learning logic to be implemented on-chain. This layer is responsible for securing the network through consensus. It also provides staking, governance, and identity services that support digital twin applications. The Fetch-ai Network blockchain relies on a modified version of the Cosmos protocol’s Tendermint Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism to secure the network. And since the Fetch-ai Network blockchain is Cosmos-based, it can be interoperable with other blockchains in the Cosmos ecosystem via the inter-blockchain communication (IBC) protocol. In addition the Feth.ai technology stack further consists of: an agent framework, an open economic framework and an agent communication network.

The Autonomous agent framework is designed to allow for a decentralized digital economy to manifest where each individual and organization is represented by an autonomous economic entity with its own agency. Designed as an actor-like asynchronous message passing system, the framework allows for a high degree of modularity as components largely communicate via messages. Moreover, the framework can be bifurcated in two parts: the core, developed by Fetch-ai Network and external contributors and packages implementing agent-specific business logic. Figure one presents a simplified illustration of the AEA framework.

The Open Economic Framework (OEF) consists of protocols, languages and market mechanisms agents use to search and find each other, communicate with as well as trade with each other. As such the OEF defines the decentralized virtual environment that supplies and supports APIs for autonomous third-party software agents, also known as Autonomous Economic Agents (AEAs).

The agent communication network is a peer-to-peer communication network for agents. It allows AEAs to send and receive envelopes between each other. The implementation builds on the open-source libp2p library. A distributed hash table is used by all participating peers to maintain a mapping between agents' cryptographic addresses and their network addresses. Agents can receive messages from other agents if they are both connected to the ACN (see here for an example).

2. What is Fetch-ai Network?

2.1 Project overview

Fetch-ai Network is a Cambridge-based artificial intelligence lab building an open-access decentralized blockchain based framework with the principal goal of delivering a fully autonomous, agent-based digital economy. The Fetch-ai Network technology stack is built using principles derived from a branch of artificial intelligence known as multi-agent systems.

2.2 Project mission

Fetch-ai Network is working to generalize and extend the results from established research fields such as blockchain, artificial intelligence and multi agent systems into new domains in finance, supply chain, mobility, smart cities and IoT applications, by creating useful antifragile tools, decentralized apps, protocols and frameworks.

2.3 Project value proposition

By bringing data to life Fetch-ai Network solves one of the greatest problems in the data industry today: data can’t sell itself. With Fetch-ai Network, it can. Data is able to actively take advantage of any opportunity to exploit itself in any marketplace, in an environment that’s constantly reorganizing to make that task as easy as possible. Internet-of-things (IOT) devices inhabited by Fetch-ai Network autonomous agents can increase utilization by capitalizing on short-lived opportunities to sell information that they possess in existing, as well as novel, information services markets: an agent in a vehicle can provide weather and road conditions by simply relaying the activity of its windscreen wiper and washer. Through the deployment of agents in combination with machine learning technology, data and hardware can now get up on their own two feet, get out there and sell themselves entirely free of intermediaries or human intervention.

3.Token sales and economics

3.1 Token sales data

Fetch-ai Network leverages its own native cryptocurrency FET as a utility token and the primary medium of exchange on the platform. FET is used to pay for network transaction fees, deploy AI, and pay for services. Users can also choose to stake FET to participate in securing the network via its Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism and earn rewards in return for contributing to validator nodes.

There is a fixed number of divisible tokens that are used on the Fetch-ai Network network as the digital currency for all transactions, as well as for network operations such as secure communications. Tokens can also constitute an access deposit for both nodes and agents wishing to perform certain operations (as a security mechanism to discourage malicious behavior). Token allocation has been divided amongst public sale, seed investors & private sale, founders & team, advisors, ecosystem, mining rewards, and issuer.

3.2 Token Distribution

The total number of tokens generated is intended to be 1,152,997,5753. No further tokens will be created, but native Fetch-ai Network tokens can be subdivided indefinitely

4. Token Overview & Use Cases

Fetch.ai leverages its own native cryptocurrency FET as a utility token and the primary medium of exchange on the platform. FET is used to pay for network transaction fees, deploy AI, and pay for services. Users can also choose to stake FET to participate in securing the network via its Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism and earn rewards in return for contributing to validator nodes.

There is a maximum supply of approximately one billion FET, which exists both in its native form as an ERC-20 token that can be used throughout the Ethereum ecosystem, and as a BEP-20 Token that can be used throughout the Binance Smart Chain Network. FET can be easily exchanged through a token bridge at a 1:1 ratio for either the Fetch.ai blockchain mainnet or ERC-20 version as needed. Staking on the Fetch.ai mainnet can earn users high rewards with significantly lower transaction fees for users.

There are a range of use-cases which Fetch-ai Network’s multi-agent systems can tap into and create a decentralized digital economy. From service sectors like Travel or Gig-economy to sectors relying on automation and machine learning like Mobility or Supply chain management, Multi-Agent systems can decentralize access to data and disrupt existing data monopolies.

Starfleit: Starfleit is a decentralized exchange (DEX) where transactions occur directly between crypto traders without needing a centralized market maker but instead using an Automated Market Maker (AMM) developed using Cosmwasm smart contracts. The assets available to swap range from native Fetch-ai Network assets, CW-20 assets, IBC transferable assets, and even assets from other chains outside the Cosmos ecosystem, via the Axelar bridge.

Atomix: Atomix enables stablecoin holders to supply liquidity and receive a yearly yield composed of protocol-generated returns and ATMX rewards. That yield is highly competitive compared to returns delivered by decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional alternatives.

MOBIX: MOBIX (MOBX), is a Move 2 Earn, decentralized micro-mobility marketplace that incentivizes sustainable urban mobility.

Mettalex: A decentralized crypto and commodities derivatives trading platform, Mettalex is addressing pain points in commodities markets like front running, poor liquidity, price manipulation and loss of value in the form of margin calls.

Resonate.social: Resonate (RESO), decentralized social network for Web3 that enables users for the very first time to have a personal AI-powered, trusted social experience that is automatically sanitized from malicious, untrustworthy sources and actors. Built on the Fetch-ai Network blockchain, Resonate.social empowers users to deploy personalized AI proxies to accomplish any Web3 social economic activity on their behalf within and without the network.

Collective Learning:

The Fetch-ai collective learning module is a tool that enables distributed parties to work together to train machine learning models without sharing underlying data with any of the individual participants. Utilizing blockchain technology and AI learning capabilities, it supports and trains its network to learn from private data without having access to it.

  • AXIM: Axim allows businesses to safely and securely connect data silos, improve their understanding via machine learning models and gain valuable insights to help optimize their business functions, without compromising any of their data privacy.
  • DabbaFlow: DabbaFlow, empowers individuals and companies to take more control over their data and turn them into real business outcomes, while keeping their data private and secure. It is the first of its kind end-to-end encrypted file-sharing platform and is the first step on Fetch-ai Network’s mission to bring AI fully to Web3.
  • OpenColearn: Open CoLearn is a platform to give distributed app developers (Web 3.0) the tools to use AI securely while safeguarding consumers' data privacy and ownership. It bridges the gap between consumers who generate a low volume of data and care about privacy and data ownership and developers who want to provide AI predictions or monetize that data in a distributed way.

Notable use-cases for Collective Learning

  1. COVID-19 detection : Multiple participants from the healthcare sector trained a machine learning algorithm using Fetch-ai’s Collective Learning to detect COVID-19 in chest x-rays. During these trials, the trained AI model correctly identified COVID-19 cases from a training set of over 1,434 chest X-ray images with 90% accuracy.
  2. Cancer cell detection: In partnership with Poznan Supercomputing Networking Center (PSNC) on Collective Learning, Fetch-ai and PSNC will train algorithms for hospitals and research centers worldwide to identify and detect circulating cancer cells in patients’ blood or tissue biopsies in the future.
  3. Bosch and Fetch-ai - Predictive Maintenance: Predictive maintenance is a process that identifies potential failures of machinery before they happen.To identify potential failures of manufacturing machinery, Bosch is utilizing Fetch-ai’s Collective Learning to predict potential failures in Bosch’s machinery while maintaining data privacy.
  4. Colearn pAInt: This is an art creation platform that allows groups of creators to automatically generate NFTs using Machine Learning. Each piece is one of a kind and sold via auction on OpenSea. \

4.1 DeFi

  • Botswap.fi: This is an automated DeFi Liquidity Management App where users can manage and protect their crypto assets across multiple different chains such as Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Smart Chain (BSC) on Uniswap and PancakeSwap and automate the process of swapping coins, managing liquidity pools, and more by using the Fetch-ai Network AEAs. Just create an agent, a trigger, choose the pairs in your portfolio you want to protect against rug pulls and that’s all, your agent does the work for you through day and night.

4.2 Mobility

  • Deep Parking: The smart parking application of the future. This prototype was demonstrated at the world’s largest automotive conference in Munich, Germany. Tested on a Tesla, Jaguar, and BMW, along with partners - Bosch, Ocean Protocol and Datarella, Deep Parking is an application built upon AI and blockchain technology that finds parking spaces for automobile drivers that were previously unused. Rather than driving into a parking lot hoping to find a space, a Fetch-ai Network digital twin representing your car will search and autonomously communicate with all the local parking spot digital twins to find the nearest available space to your destination and book it for you, before directing you to it. The digital twins negotiate and agree the terms for the parking booking. Once the user has left the parking space, the payment transactions are sent automatically.
  • DDN (Decentralized Delivery Network): Forget Uber, Lyft, Deliveroo and any other centralized service providers you know of. That’s what DDN or decentralized delivery network is about - where you can interact with a service provider, negotiate your price and travel/have items delivered and have this done autonomously on your behalf. The advantages are plenty - you return value to local economies, you have unparalleled level of privacy and everything is decentralized - which means you keep control of your data

4.3 Travel

  • The FET powered Travel marketplace delivers an alternative method by which bookings can be taken: one where the customer and hotels deal with each other directly and as a result offer significant cost savings for both hotels and consumers. It aims to provide an unparalleled level of privacy for all its users by moving the private data away from centralized entities by keeping it safe in each user’s smartphone and a personalized booking experience.

4.4 Supply Chain

  • The partnership between Fetch-ai Network and LiquidChefs aims to utilize Fetch-ai Network’s Autonomous Economic Agents integrated with its Search and Discovery Framework to build local and transparent supply chains, allowing LiquidChefs to search and connect with any sustainable supplier in its immediate vicinity. By digitizing and automating the LiquidChefs supply chain, Fetch-ai Network infrastructure will create a decentralized supply chain marketplace. This marketplace connects buyers and suppliers agents, in real time, to support dynamic, scalable, multi-agent supply chains.
  • This will allow individuals, organizations and assets to be represented as autonomous agents which work autonomously based on the users’ needs and preferences, such as finding local and sustainable suppliers. The decentralized supply chain marketplace was showcased at the Davos World Economic Forum in 2022.

5. Roadmap & Updates

5.1 Completed Milestones

Completion DateMilestoneCommentary
2020: Q3Launch of AtomixMedium Announcement
2021: Q1First stable release of the Agent (AEA) framework v1.0 releasedLink
2021: Q1Fetch-ai Network Mainnet v2.0 launchedLink
2021: Q2FET listed on CoinbaseLink
2021: Q2DeFi Agents (recently renamed to BotSwap) releasedLink
2021: Q2Multi-modal transport demo at IAAMedium Announcement
2021: Q4App demo for ethical and sustainable supply chains showcased at WEF Davos 2022Medium Announcement
2021: Q4FET listed on BitstampLink
2021: Q4FET listed on GeminiTweet
2022: Q1$150M Development fund launchedLink
2022: Q1Resonate.social launchedLink
2022: Q1FET listed on etoroLink
2022: Q1FET listed on VoyagerLink
2022: Q1Fetch-ai Network joins IBC and FET/OSMO listed on Osmosis DEXLink
2022: Q2FET listed on Kraken, Bitpanda,Link
2022: Q2DabbaFlow (CoLearn) launchedLink
2022: Q3Native FET token listed on Binance USTweet
2022: Q340000 new users onboarded to Fetch-ai NetworkLink

5.2 Current Roadmap

2022 Q3-Q4

  • Fetch-ai Network
    • Maintenance upgrade of the Fetch-ai Network for any security patches from the upstream Cosmos SDK releases
    • Eridanus release which will bring support for Group Module, BLS signatures, and cross chain composability using interchain accounts. This will also include patches from the upstream Cosmos SDK releases
  • External Protocol Integrations
    • Integrate with the Axelar bridge to support bi-directional transfer of Axelar supported EVM assets (including popular stablecoins) between the EVM ecosystem and the Fetch Ecosystem
    • Integrate with the SubQuery Indexer protocol to bring fast querying capabilities to the other Fetch-ai Network products such as the Fetch Wallet, and the Fetch Explorer. Additionally, make it available for the Fetch-ai Network Ecosystem projects by providing a Fetch-ai Network hosted indexing service.
  • Products and Tools
    • Fetch Wallet features
      • Integrating wallet to wallet messaging and notification service, including group messaging and group notification support
      • Swap support with integration of the Fetch-ai Network Ecosystem DEX - Starfleit
      • Other Features (non-exhaustive list)
    • Fetch Station Explorer Features
      • Improved UI/UX for general areas such as accounts and governance proposal
      • Ability to query and interact with contracts
      • NFT support
    • AEA - Autonomous Economic Agent framework and ACN - Agent Communication Network
      • Increasing community engagement to gather feedback for future feature development
      • Release improved documentation and education content on AEAs
      • Initial set of Agent component examples and crowdsourced examples for the AEA registry
    • Jenesis shell tool
      • Initial beta release of Jenesis shell tool to provide scaffolding for bootstrapping DApp development on the Fetch-ai Network
  • Ecosystem and Community (non-exhaustive list)
    • Launch Fetch Improvement Proposal (FIP) process
    • Launch of Fetch’s Digital Twin platform applications
    • Launch of Atomix Real-World Asset (RWA) lending protocol on the Testnet
      • Launch of RWA backed stable coin on the Testnet
    • Launch of Fetch-ai Network ecosystem DEX - Starfleit
    • Launch of GetMySlice GDPR compliant data sharing service

2023 Q1-Q2

  • Fetch-ai Network
    • Formax release supporting Cosmos SDK Lambda upgrade (v9)
    • Gemini release supporting Cosmos SDK Epilson upgrade (v10)
  • External Protocol Integrations
    • Add support for generic message passing from the Axelar bridge to support cross chain and cross ecosystem composability
    • Support upstream changes for the Axelar Bridge integration
    • Support upstream changes for the SubQuery Indexer integration
  • Products and Tools
    • Fetch Wallet features
      • Native mobile wallet
      • Bi-directional Open Banking integration
      • Support for EVM chains
      • Swap support for EVM assets using the Axelar Bridge
      • Off-chain decentralized peer-to-peer communication support
      • Wallet based analytics
    • Fetch Station Explorer Features
      • Launch of the Fetch Name Service
    • AEA - Autonomous Economic Agent framework and ACN - Agent Communication Network
      • Improved AEA registry
      • Improved Agent graphical UI
    • Jenesis shell tool
      • Add contract IDE and testing capabilities
  • Ecosystem and Community (non-exhaustive list)
    • Launch of Atomix Real-World Asset (RWA) lending protocol on the Mainnet
    • Launch of RWA backed stable coin on the Mainnet

5.3 Commercial and Business Development Progress

  • Bosch
    • Bosch is working with Fetch-ai Network as part of the launch of a fully functional blockchain network (v2.0 main-net), testing key features on the test-net. Sharing a common vision, the strategic advance engineering project “Economy of Things” (EoT) at Bosch Research and Fetch-ai Network aim to transform existing digital ecosystems using distributed ledger technologies (DLT) like blockchain.
  • Catena X
    • Catena-X is the first integrated, collaborative, open data ecosystem for the automotive industry of the future.
    • Together with other partners, Fetch-ai Network is supporting the Catena-X group in building a digital ecosystem that provides equal collaboration of all the stakeholders by setting up new standards in the automotive value chain along with building greater manufacturing and supply chain efficiency.
  • moveID
    • moveID is part of the Gaia-X 4 Future Mobility project family consisting of five consortia and aims to develop a decentralized digital identity infrastructure for mobility in Europe
    • Together with partners within moveID, Over the next three years, the GAIA-X 4 moveID project is set to develop the necessary standards and technological concepts to enable the secure exchange of information between providers of mobility applications and their customers. The goal is to create decentralized digital vehicle identities. This is an important prerequisite for the mass use of electric vehicles, automated driving, and the establishment of connected cities. GAIA-X 4 moveID is supported to the tune of 14 million euros by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action – covering half of the project costs.
  • IOTA
    • IOTA is an open-source distributed ledger and cryptocurrency designed for the Internet of things.
    • Fetch-ai Network and IOTA’s collaboration enables granular control over data and to reduce the reliance on centralized systems that take advantage of data.
  • LiquidChefs
    • LiquidChefs specialise in the supply of portable bar hire, events bars and mobile cocktails bars, as well as, slick and stylish bartenders and baristas for any private or corporate event
    • This partnership paves the way for increased transparency within supply chains using autonomous economic agents and was showcased at WEF Davos 2022
  • IAA Mobility 2021
    • The IAA (Passenger Cars) event & brand is known as Germany's leading international automotive trade fair.
    • Fetch-ai Network along with its partners — Bosch, Datarella, and Ocean Protocol showcased our exciting collaboration demonstrating the technology involved in Deep Parking. Deep Parking is an application built upon AI and blockchain technology that finds parking spaces for automobile drivers that were previously unused.

6. Team Overview

Humayun Sheikh
Founder and CEO
Entrepreneur, Investor and Visionary | Founding Investor in DeepMind | Founder, CEO of uVue and itzMe | Passionate about Future of Distributed Economy | Key Focus on AI, Machine Learning, Blockchain and Token-based economies
 
Jonathan Ward
CTO
Senior Algorithm Engineer at DNA Electronics, Research Scientist at EMBL, Led development of novel minimal agency consensus protocol that solves node-as-intermediaries problem and makes blockchain viable for financial applications.
 
Kamal Ved
CPO - Fetch-ai Network
Venture Partner at Lunar Ventures, Executive director at brainbot technologies AG, Independent Technology and Business Strategy Consultant at Bosch.
 
Devon Bleibtrey
CPO - Fetch-ai app
Director of Technology at ESG Automotive USA, Director of Product development at Auklet, Co-Funder at Push Display. Advocate of effective team communication and collaboration.
 

7. Community

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

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What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

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Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

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    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications. 

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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thedinarian@thedinarian
July 28, 2025
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PYTH: We'll Always Have Coldplay

Welcome back to The Epicenter, where crypto chaos meets corporate cringe.

But surprisingly, crypto has not been the most chaotic corner of the internet as of late.

That honor goes to the startup Astronomer, whose CEO’s cheating scandal broke the web in a glorious meme-fueled media frenzy. The company’s damage control? Hiring Gwyneth Paltrow as a “temporary spokesperson.” Do we think they’re grasping at straws or setting a new standard for PR?

Meanwhile, the markets didn’t blink. BTC is still flexing near its all-time highs. Michael Saylor’s bringing a bitcoin-adjacent money-market product to Wall Street. A pharma company just earmarked $700M to stack BNB, and analysts are calling time of death on the four-year crypto cycle. It’s a steady boom now, kittens.

A few things that are also worth noting: Winklevoss vs. JPMorgan, Visa’s take on stablecoins, and Robinhood’s Euro drama that defies the chillness of eurosummer.

Let’s get into it 👇

⛓️ The On-Chain Pulse: What’s Happening on the Front Lines of Finance

This week’s biggest news in crypto and all things digital assets

🗣️ Word on the Street: What the Experts are Saying

Stuff you should repost (or maybe even cough reword and take credit for)

Meme of the Week

🏦 Kiss my SaaS: What’s Changing the Game for Fintech

Things you should care about if you want to impress your coworkers

Closing Thoughts

From meme-fueled PR stunts to Bitcoin-backed money-market funds, this week reminded us that markets move fast—and headlines move faster. With Wall Street automating itself, fintechs beefing with banks, and even your smartphone becoming a miner, anything is possible. Stay curious, stay cynical, and as always—stay sharp and stay liquid. We’ll see you back here in two weeks.

— The Epicenter, powered by Pyth Network

 

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thedinarian@thedinarian
July 27, 2025
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4 Fintech Companies 💸& Things To Know About 🤔

The fintech revolution is reshaping the way we manage, invest, and move money, breaking down traditional barriers and empowering individuals worldwide. As financial technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, a select group of innovative companies are leading the charge by offering groundbreaking solutions that redefine banking, payments, and digital assets. Whether you’re a savvy investor, an industry professional, or simply curious about the future of finance, discovering these trailblazing fintech companies is essential to understanding today’s dynamic financial landscape.

 

  1.  Alina Invest - The AI Wealth Manager for GenZ Women

Alina is aimed at women under 25 who identify as beginner investors. They're an SEC-registered investment advisor that charges $120/year for membership. The service "buys and sells for you" and gives up notification updates of recent transactions like a wealth manager would.

👉 Getting people to invest early is crucial to building long-term wealth. One thing that holds them back is a lack of confidence and experience. Being targetted "for beginners" and people who live on TikTok should appeal. I love the sense of "we're buying and selling for you." Funds always do that, but making it an engagement mechanic is very smart. The risk here is that building a wealth business will take decades for the AUM to compound. But the next generations, Wealthfront or Betterment, will look something like Alina.

2. Blue layer - The Carbon project funding platform

Bluelayer allows Carbon project developers to take from feasibility studies to issuing credits, tracking inventory, and managing orders. Developers of reforestation, conservation, direct air capture, and other projects can also directly report to industry registries. 

👉 Carbon investing and tax credits are heavily incentivized but need transparent data. By focusing on the developers, Bluelayer can ensure the data, reporting, and credits lifecycle is all managed at the source. This is smart.

3. Akirolabs - Modern Procurement for enterprise

Akiro is a "strategic" procurement platform aiming to help enterprise customers identify risks, value drivers, and strategic levers before issuing an RFP. It aims to bring in multiple stakeholders for complex purchasing decisions at multinationals. 

👉 Procurement is a great wedge for multinational corporate transformation. Buying anything in an enterprise that uses large-scale ERPs is a nightmare of committees and spreadsheets. Turning an oil tanker-sized organization around is difficult, but the right suppliers can have a meaningful impact in the short term. That only works if you can buy from them. Getting people on the same page with a single platform is a great start.

4. NeoTax - Automated Tax R&D Credits

NeoTax allows companies to connect their engineering tools to calculate available tax advantages automatically. Once calculated, the tax fillings are clearly labeled with supporting evidence for the IRS.

👉 AWS and GCP log files and data are a goldmine. Last week, I covered Bilanc, which uses log files to figure out per-account unit economics. Now, we calculate R&D tax credits. The unlock here is LLM's ability to understand unstructured data. The hard part is understanding the moat, but time will tell.

In an era where technology and finance are increasingly intertwined, these four fintech companies stand out as catalysts for positive change. By driving progress in digital payments, asset management, lending, and decentralized finance, they are not only making financial services more accessible and efficient—they are also paving the way for a more inclusive and empowered global economy. Staying informed about their innovations can help you seize new opportunities and take part in the future of finance.

 

đź‘€Things to know đź‘€

 

PayPal issued low guidance and warned of a “transition year.” The stock is down 8% in extended trading despite PayPal reporting a 9% growth in revenue and 23% EBITDA. Gross profit is down 4% YoY. PayPal's total revenues were $29Bn for the year

Adyen reported 22% revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 46% for the full year. Adyen's total revenues were $1.75bn for the full year. The margin was down from 55% the previous year, impacted by hiring ahead of growth.

🤔 PayPal’s Braintree (unbranded) is losing market share in the US, while Adyen is winning it. eCommerce is growing ~9 to 10% YoY, and PayPal’s transaction revenue grew by 6.7%. The higher interest rate environment meant interest on balances dragged up the total revenue figure. Their core business is losing market share. Adyen is outgrowing the market by ~12%.

🤔 The PayPal button (branded) is losing to SHOP Pay and Apple Pay. The branded experience from Apple and Shopify is delightful for users; it’s fast and helps with small details like delivery tracking. That experience translates to higher conversion (and more revenue) for merchants.

🤔 The lack of a single global platform hurts PayPal, but it helps Adyen. In the earnings call, the new CEO admitted their mix of platforms like Venmo, PayPal, and Braintree are holding them back. They aim to combine and simplify, but that’s easier said than done.

🤔 Making a single platform from PayPal, Venmo, and Braintree won’t be easy. There’s a graveyard of payment company CEOs who tried to make “one platform” from things they acquired years ago. It’s crucial if they’re going to grow that they get their innovation edge back. Adyen has one platform in every market.

🤔 PayPal’s UK and European acquiring business is a bright spot. The UK and EU delivered 20% of overall revenue, growing 11% YoY. Square and Toast don’t have market share here, while iZettle, which PayPal acquired in 2018, is a strong market player. Overall though, it’s yet another tech stack and business that’s not part of a single global platform.

The two banks provided accounts to UK front companies secretly owned by an Iranian petrochemicals company. PCC has used these entities to receive funds from Iranian entities in China, concealed with trustee agreements and nominee directors. 

🤔 This is the headline every bank CEO fears. Oof. Shares of both banks have been down since the news broke, but this will no doubt involve crisis calls, committees, appearing in front of the regulator, and, finally, some sort of fine.

🤔 The "risk-based approach" has been arbitraged. A UK company with relatively low annual revenue would look "low risk" at onboarding. One business the FT covered looked like a small company at a residential address to compliance staff. They'd likely apply branch-level controls instead of the enterprise-grade controls you'd see for a large corporation. 

🤔 Hiring more staff won't fix this problem; it's a mindset and technology challenge. In theory, all of the skill and technology that exists to manage risks with large corporate customers (in the transaction banking divisions) are available to the other parts of a bank. In practice, they're not. Most banks lack a single data set and the ability for compliance officers in one team to see data from another part of the org. Getting the basics right with data and tooling is incredibly hard and will involve a multi-year effort. 

🤔 These things are rarely the failure of an individual or department; the issue is systemic. While two banks are named in this headline, the issue is everywhere. Banks need more data and better data to train better AI and machine learning. That all needs to happen in real-time as a compliment to the human staff. Throwing bodies at this won't solve the visibility issue teams have.

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