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💥The Cosmos Endgame💥
It's Ethereum vs Cosmos. Which blockchain has the better endgame?
October 13, 2022
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Merge, Surge, Splurge... Converge?

The Interchain Endgames of Cosmos and Ethereum

Towards the end of the Silurian period 420 million years ago, jawed fish diverged into cartilaginous sharks (and rays), and their more rigid cousins, the bony fish. 

These latter produced the amphibians, some of whom crawled out to conquer the land and the air as dinosaurs and proto-mammals. 375 million years later, a few of them returned to the sea, becoming dolphins and whales as they converged again on the familiar hydrodynamic strategies of a propulsive tail, flippers, and light bones, this time as warm-blooded, air-breathing mammals.

  

A short history of Cosmos and Ethereum

Divergence: In 2013-14, Cosmos and Ethereum split off from their common blockchain ancestor, Bitcoin. But as both projects have iterated on their own respective roadmaps, their endgames have begun to converge on multiple, connected execution zones.

Though the Cosmos design still favors sovereignty at the app level, Ethereum has become increasingly modular, preferring to trade this freedom for universal security and settlement. Ethereum’s monolithic structure allowed composable smart contracts to be launched and iterated upon at great speed, the necessary preconditions for the first great flowering of DeFi applications.

Its great success allowed it to develop solutions to many blockchain problems, and it has made considerable progress on two of the space’s most persistent problems: scaling and maximal-extractable-value (MEV). Ethereum devs have pushed the technological and definitional limits of single-chain scaling, and they have brought the dark forest of block producer transaction reordering into the light. 

At the same time, Cosmos ceded the winner-take-most race of becoming the world’s financial AOL (siloed precursor to the world wide web), in order to instead develop a secure, flexible backbone for the internet of money.

It pioneered three pluggable, adaptable technologies:

  1. A replicable state machine with Byzantine Fault Tolerant consensus (Tendermint).

  2. A set of blockchain application modules (the Cosmos SDK) that interact with the consensus engine.

  3. Together these can be used to quickly spin up an immediately interoperable blockchain using the crown jewel of Cosmos: the Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol

IBC is both a trust-minimized data transport layer for communicating between chains, and an interchain app-layer built on top. The most obvious application is token transfers, but an increasing array of Interchain Standards is allowing more complex cross-chain interactions such as Interchain Queries, Interchain Accounts (allowing accounts on one chain to control accounts on others), and Interchain Security, the sharing of validator power between chains.

These IBC functions are online and just coming into wide use, setting the stage for fully composable DeFi between chains. 

Convergence: From these radically different approaches, Cosmos and Ethereum are now beginning to converge once more, as each adapts to the ever-changing crypto environment. 

On one hand, Cosmos is superficially beginning to resemble Ethereum at the app-layer, which is a fulfillment of the Cosmos roadmap, rather than an architectural change. With IBC now connected to some 50 chains, and CosmWasm smart contracting spreading throughout the ecosystem, applications are proliferating in a variety of ways: as single-use blockchains, as general smart-contracting zones, and as curated, multi-team application suites like the Osmosis decentralized exchange

As interchain DeFi begins to flourish, it makes sense that many of the first applications have been ported over from the most successful Ethereum applications. But many chains are doing things only possible on a sovereign chain, and apps that start as clones do so largely as a bootstrapping mechanism, achieving product-market fit while developing improvements that are only possible on appchains.

On the other hand, Ethereum is looking decidedly more like Cosmos in its design.

With the Merge complete, it is now Proof of Stake like Tendermint chains. More importantly, the original Ethereum 2.0 vision of sharded execution has long been de-prioritized in favor of rollups, quasi-appchains designed to move the majority of transactions off Ethereum’s main layer. The most recently announced parts of the Ethereum scaling roadmap–the surge (data sharding), verge (statelessness), purge (state expiry and cleanup), and splurge (account abstraction, proposer-builder separation, verifiable delay functions)–all support this rollup-centric model.

In his Endgame post late last year, Vitalik imagined three possible scaling futures for Ethereum: no rollups, a single dominant rollup, or a continuation of the current multi-rollup scenario, which we have circled in red.

  

Because they essentially act like appchains, it seems likely that many rollups will continue to thrive simultaneously.

Since each rollup has attracted its own developers, apps, investors, and users, each has begun to develop its own unique communitarian identity and its own business development. For now, each rollup is a tax-paying, protected commonwealth within the greater Ethereum federalist state, but the most successful, having had a taste of the sovereign appchain experience, may eventually want more control of their protocols, at which time they could easily become full-fledged interconnected appchains with access to the entirety of the interchain

The Cosmos Appchain Thesis

Why would an app or a rollup want to become an appchain instead?

The fundamental value proposition is sovereign interoperability

Because they are sovereign, appchains have precise control over their entire stack: execution, consensus, block size and timing, state and mempool logic, rollups, fees, the smart contract environment, validator requirements, governance rules, and any other area of blockchain structure and operations they might want to customize. 

Because they are interoperable, appchains can freely and composably interact with each other over IBC.  

What do appchains do with all this power?

They optimize for user experience, fine-tuning the access that front-ends and wallets like Keplr have to blockchain data and mechanisms, and adjusting protocol-level logic to make execution faster, easier, and more productive. They secure the chain as they see fit, recruiting their own validators to implement code, produce blocks, relay transactions, and more, or borrowing security from another validator set with interchain security (Q1 2023).

Ultimately, most appchains will choose to mix these two options: chains will share their validator sets with each other, and the entire interchain will become a shared defense zone, shielded with the armor of mesh security

Many appchain innovations knit security and UX together. Osmosis, for instance, has developed “superfluid staking,” a substantial improvement to Proof-of-Stake that allows liquidity providers to stake the underlying tokens in their LP shares to help secure the chain, thereby also earning staking rewards in addition to LP rewards. Currently only the OSMO token benefits from this increased capital efficiency, but pending improvements to Tendermint (the BFT-tolerant state machine replication software at the heart of many Cosmos chains) will enable other appchains to opt in to superfluid-staking on Osmosis or allow OSMO to be superfluid-staked on their chain.

Soon, the whole interchain will be able to put its staked assets to work in DeFi without incurring the centralization and chain security risks of traditional liquid staking derivatives.   

Appchains also excel at handling MEV: the profits available to whoever has the power to decide transaction ordering and block inclusion. MEV has plagued DeFi users across all ecosystems, but appchains can more quickly develop on-chain solutions that greatly reduce malicious MEV and redirect healthy arbitrage profits from third parties to themselves.  

For example, Osmosis is developing a private mempool with threshold decryption (an idea that Ethereum is experimenting with too). These private transactions cannot be seen by nodes until after they are executed, making front-running much more difficult as well as allowing limit orders and other future/contingent transactions to be put on-chain privately. Similarly, appchains can reserve the first slot in their blocks for protocol-controlled arbitrage and liquidations: a necessity for the health of lending and trading protocols, but which on monolithic chains tends to become an MEV game, leaking value from the app to third parties. Osmosis will instead be directing these healthy, non-user-harming arb profits back to the DAO.

The remaining (much-reduced) MEV can also be partially captured in-app by auctioning off the second slot in the block to MEV searchers–like Flashbots, but on-chain. Alternatively, it may make sense for chains to let all these second-slot auctions be aggregated in one place, as the Cosmos Hub proposes to do, so that the cross-chain MEV market is transparent and not a dark forest.

Appchains allow for radical blockchain experiments to be carried out quickly. While Tendermint and the Cosmos SDK are amazing technologies that allow apps to quickly spin up IBC-ready blockchains, the whole Cosmos stack is not necessary to become an IBC-connected appchain. Many compelling Cosmos ecosystem projects are building or adopting alternative consensus or state-machines that better fit their needs, including Penumbra (private trading), Anoma (universal coincidence-of-wants coordination), and Nomic (Bitcoin on Cosmos). 

Appchains are not definitionally different to monolithic chains; rather, appchain modularity is largely the philosophy of sovereign interoperability combined with the trust-minimized blockchain communication of IBC.

Monolithic chains, by contrast, have generally adopted the so-called fat-protocol thesis, in which a single chain runs the vast majority of DeFi worldwide, and everything settles to one layer whose token accrues a monetary premium. Scaling such a protocol is very difficult, as we know, and heroic efforts continue to be put into exciting technologies that speed up and modularize execution, storage, data availability, and the like.

Rollups, which are amazing technical achievements, have so far acted as enclaved appchains without sovereignty or interoperability, though they of course benefit from Ethereum’s massive security. By the same token (no pun intended), while appchains do not yet generally have the blockspace constraints of monolithic chains, they will be able to adopt modular solutions like rollups and data availability layers when it becomes necessary.

The Cosmos thesis predicted the appchain future, allowing it to shard execution into separate blockchains by design, giving app builders the freedom to develop their own products and to experiment freely with all layers of the stack to do so.

At the same time, the appchain vision assumed the inevitability of cross-chain bridging years before everyone else and developed by far the most comprehensive and safest system for interchain blockchain communication in an age where cross-chain bridge hacks are commonplace.

The Safety of IBC

One of the potentially strongest arguments against the appchain thesis is that bridges are inherently unsafe. On one hand, it is true that no protocol or interchain messaging system is inherently and at all times safe, but this is as true of Ethereum contracts as it is of IBC.

Any code can have bugs, and adversaries will always try to exploit them.

On the other hand, we have gathered enough evidence since DeFi summer that users are simply never going to confine themselves to a single chain–they will use a hilariously exploitable multi-sig just to get cross-chain to the latest cookie-cutter EVM clone.

How much more eager will they be to use the fully interoperable, UX optimized, composable DeFi of IBC and the interchain? 

If bridges are inevitable, why is IBC the best? Why should it be considered safe enough to be the future of finance? The answer lies in the trust-minimized design.

Participating chains run light clients of each other, meaning that they each independently verify the block headers of the other chain. An attacker therefore cannot convince another chain with a lie about what happened on one blockchain unless they take over the whole chain. If that were to happen, the party controlling the chain could potentially infinite-mint its own chain’s tokens, pass them over IBC, and use them to steal funds on an AMM or through another DeFi mechanism. 

This is in stark contrast to bridges whose tokens are held in an exploitable contract (multi-sig or otherwise), and which have not traditionally permitted generalized message-passing (though the Axelar appchain has made strides in improving non-IBC cross-chain communication).

It is therefore important that appchains establish IBC connections with reputable, secure chains. However, it is also true that the vulnerability window from an attacking IBC-connected chain is quite small. First, if a chain is taken over by economic or governance attack, or if it catastrophically fails, IBC connections can be immediately closed, meaning that it cannot siphon any value away.

To cover the short amount of time before the IBC connection is closed, IBC rate-limiting will shortly be available. This will allow appchains to restrict the token flow over a given period, allowing normal activity while limiting the value that an attacking chain can take, making the economic calculus of any attack far less favorable.

   

IBC in PracticeThe above image (live, interactive version here) shows IBC sends and receives between IBC-connected chains, with the icons sized proportionally by transaction volume. Even in this bear market, in the past 30 days, roughly 800k transactions and $264m worth of value have been sent over IBC. Note that this is only cross-chain activity; it does not count single-chain transactions.

Still, it is no secret that Cosmos does not yet have Ethereum-like adoption. Technical challenges remain for interchain DeFi to reach its full potential–though we are starting to see their likely shape in the mesh of Interchain Security, encrypted mempools, protocol-controlled arbitrage, and synchronous blockspace auctions.

As interchain adoption picks up, appchains that need to scale will also have access to the full array of rollup and other scaling solutions being developed on Ethereum, as well modularizing appchains like Celestia.

ATOM 2.0: Monolithic-chain Benefits for the Interchain 

We discussed above how Ethereum has become more Cosmos-like over the years. In its recent ATOM 2.0 whitepaper, the Cosmos Hub has proposed to offer several Ethereum-like, ecosystem-wide use cases.

The Cosmos Hub was so named because it was the first appchain of the Cosmos ecosystem, a proof-of-concept for the Cosmos SDK, as well as a Schelling point and funding source for interchain developers, investors, and users.

However, because ATOM holders strongly believed that the Cosmos philosophy of rent-free sovereign interoperability was the only viable way to build the interchain future, the Hub ended up without an obvious use case. ATOM 2.0 changes that, not by radically altering the Cosmos, but by specializing the Hub as an ecosystem service-chain.

What follows is a brief general overview of the most compelling parts of the ATOM 2.0 proposal.

1️. Interchain Scheduler

Perhaps the most innovative use-case for the Hub, the Scheduler is a proposed market for synchronous cross-chain blockspace. The idea is that appchains will let the Hub tokenize and sell the first or second slots in their blocks (depending on whether the appchain executes its own arbitrage and liquidations at the top of the block).

Profits will be shared between the Hub and the originating chain.

Because Tendermint block proposers are deterministically chosen, both MEV searchers and applications will know when cross-chain blocks are synchronous, and these blocks will fetch higher prices than if they were auctioned off on the home appchain.

More importantly, the Scheduler acts as an on-chain interchain Flashbots, allowing cross-chain MEV to occur in the light where it can be studied and mitigated, instead of off-chain in the dark forest. Further, these synchronous cross-chain blocks may be valuable to many DeFi applications because they will allow for immediate, atomic, final execution on multiple blockchains simultaneously. It is also possible that this cross-chain synchrony will develop more robustly through interchain mesh security.

2️. Interchain Security

We discussed mesh security above. Under the ATOM 2.0 proposal, the Cosmos Hub will provide Interchain Security v1.

In this first form, a provider chain will allow its validator set to provide plug-and-play security for consumer chains that do not want the responsibility of recruiting and managing their own validators. Interchain Security v1 is a logical extension to the Cosmos SDK, making it easier than ever to spin up a new chain, as long as the application does not mind paying the security provider and does not need the flexibility and sovereignty of its own validator set. Notably, Interchain Security v1 was attractive to Circle, which will be releasing native USDC into the interchain from a Hub-secured asset-issuance chain as soon as Q1 2023.

Even in v1 of Interchain Security, any appchain can be a security provider if it finds a willing consumer for its security.

However, chains cannot simultaneously provide and consume security from each other in the amount of their choosing, which in v2/v3 of Interchain Security, is what will allow for the Internet of Blockchains to have shared, opt-in mesh security. In its final mesh security form, Interchain Security acts as another point of convergence between Cosmos and Ethereum, enabling the interchain to achieve a more flexible, self-sovereign version of the sort of monolithic, protocol-level security currently provided by Ethereum. 

3️. Interchain Allocator

Broadly speaking, the Hub intends to use its well-funded treasury to continue to invest in promising ecosystem projects, driving value back to ATOM.

That treasury will be replenished predominantly with fees from the Scheduler’s synchronous blockspace auctions, and from Interchain Security payments. If the investments are made well, they will themselves return extra value to the treasury. If these revenue streams provide sufficient ongoing value to stakers, ATOM inflation will be cut to zero, a move aimed at giving ATOM sound money properties in the vein of ETH and BTC, properties which have hitherto been reserved for monolithic L1s.

If all these services are adopted as planned, the Hub can stay true to its roots as a non-extractive booster of the whole ecosystem, earning fees only to the extent that it is providing valuable services. The value-accrual mechanisms should enable ATOM to retain its value as a strong ecosystem collateral, one of the bases for decentralized interchain stablecoins

Appchains: Hubs and Outposts

For the moment, blockchain activity has settled into a number of semi-fluid ecosystems.

These zones are loosely interconnected now with a patchwork of bridges and centralized exchanges, but IBC can safely interconnect them all–though developing cost-effective light clients for some chains is still a work in progress

Both appchains and apps on monolithic chains have been positioning themselves for an increasingly interconnected future. With ad hoc cross-chain bridging now decidedly out of favor, it makes sense for most apps to adopt a hub and outpost model, rather than relying on name recognition or trying to establish a lasting technical moat while constrained by protocol-level decisions beyond their control.

This hub and outpost model can take different forms. In all its forms, the hub is the home of the appchain, running governance, holding the treasury, and coordinating among the outposts. One of the main questions going forward with IBC is how liquidity is best handled. For Osmosis, at least for the moment, it makes sense to house all of its liquidity at home and have its outposts route flows from other chains through the Osmosis blockchain. But Mars Protocol, which is working closely with Osmosis to launch its first lending outpost on Osmosis, plans for each of its outposts to have separate liquidity.

It is up to different appchains to weigh the trade-offs between splitting their liquidity, which may lead to poor execution, and the need for fully synchronous transactions, which power traders sometimes demand and which IBC cannot yet provide. That said, as the mesh security of the interchain grows, and as a market grows for synchronous blocks between chains, and as IBC develops in ways we cannot yet predict, fully synchronous interchain DeFi transactions will inevitably become available.

The Endgame

Cosmos and Ethereum have always been philosophically close, each drawing heavily on the original cypherpunk ethos for inspiration. While Ethereum set out to push the monolithic chain hypothesis as far as it would go, and Cosmos chose instead to maximize sovereign interoperability, it should perhaps not be surprising that many of their design choices have begun to converge again as they approach their Endgames.

The line between a rollup and an appchain is becoming increasingly thin, as evidenced by dYdX’s decision to move from one to the other–while holding out the possibility that they might move back to a rollup in the future (See the podcast dYdX founder Antonio Juliano on leaving Ethereum here).

Other apps are likely to spin off their own appchains, possibly while retaining Ethereum as their premier outposts.

Interoperability (of a limited, insecure sort) long ago came to Ethereum to stay: once a light client is available, Ethereum itself will be able to connect to the interchain more securely by using IBC, another sovereign, interoperable member of the broader ecosystem we all share.

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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PYTH: We'll Always Have Coldplay

Welcome back to The Epicenter, where crypto chaos meets corporate cringe.

But surprisingly, crypto has not been the most chaotic corner of the internet as of late.

That honor goes to the startup Astronomer, whose CEO’s cheating scandal broke the web in a glorious meme-fueled media frenzy. The company’s damage control? Hiring Gwyneth Paltrow as a “temporary spokesperson.” Do we think they’re grasping at straws or setting a new standard for PR?

Meanwhile, the markets didn’t blink. BTC is still flexing near its all-time highs. Michael Saylor’s bringing a bitcoin-adjacent money-market product to Wall Street. A pharma company just earmarked $700M to stack BNB, and analysts are calling time of death on the four-year crypto cycle. It’s a steady boom now, kittens.

A few things that are also worth noting: Winklevoss vs. JPMorgan, Visa’s take on stablecoins, and Robinhood’s Euro drama that defies the chillness of eurosummer.

Let’s get into it 👇

⛓️ The On-Chain Pulse: What’s Happening on the Front Lines of Finance

This week’s biggest news in crypto and all things digital assets

🗣️ Word on the Street: What the Experts are Saying

Stuff you should repost (or maybe even cough reword and take credit for)

Meme of the Week

🏦 Kiss my SaaS: What’s Changing the Game for Fintech

Things you should care about if you want to impress your coworkers

Closing Thoughts

From meme-fueled PR stunts to Bitcoin-backed money-market funds, this week reminded us that markets move fast—and headlines move faster. With Wall Street automating itself, fintechs beefing with banks, and even your smartphone becoming a miner, anything is possible. Stay curious, stay cynical, and as always—stay sharp and stay liquid. We’ll see you back here in two weeks.

— The Epicenter, powered by Pyth Network

 

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4 Fintech Companies 💸& Things To Know About 🤔

The fintech revolution is reshaping the way we manage, invest, and move money, breaking down traditional barriers and empowering individuals worldwide. As financial technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, a select group of innovative companies are leading the charge by offering groundbreaking solutions that redefine banking, payments, and digital assets. Whether you’re a savvy investor, an industry professional, or simply curious about the future of finance, discovering these trailblazing fintech companies is essential to understanding today’s dynamic financial landscape.

 

  1.  Alina Invest - The AI Wealth Manager for GenZ Women

Alina is aimed at women under 25 who identify as beginner investors. They're an SEC-registered investment advisor that charges $120/year for membership. The service "buys and sells for you" and gives up notification updates of recent transactions like a wealth manager would.

👉 Getting people to invest early is crucial to building long-term wealth. One thing that holds them back is a lack of confidence and experience. Being targetted "for beginners" and people who live on TikTok should appeal. I love the sense of "we're buying and selling for you." Funds always do that, but making it an engagement mechanic is very smart. The risk here is that building a wealth business will take decades for the AUM to compound. But the next generations, Wealthfront or Betterment, will look something like Alina.

2. Blue layer - The Carbon project funding platform

Bluelayer allows Carbon project developers to take from feasibility studies to issuing credits, tracking inventory, and managing orders. Developers of reforestation, conservation, direct air capture, and other projects can also directly report to industry registries. 

👉 Carbon investing and tax credits are heavily incentivized but need transparent data. By focusing on the developers, Bluelayer can ensure the data, reporting, and credits lifecycle is all managed at the source. This is smart.

3. Akirolabs - Modern Procurement for enterprise

Akiro is a "strategic" procurement platform aiming to help enterprise customers identify risks, value drivers, and strategic levers before issuing an RFP. It aims to bring in multiple stakeholders for complex purchasing decisions at multinationals. 

👉 Procurement is a great wedge for multinational corporate transformation. Buying anything in an enterprise that uses large-scale ERPs is a nightmare of committees and spreadsheets. Turning an oil tanker-sized organization around is difficult, but the right suppliers can have a meaningful impact in the short term. That only works if you can buy from them. Getting people on the same page with a single platform is a great start.

4. NeoTax - Automated Tax R&D Credits

NeoTax allows companies to connect their engineering tools to calculate available tax advantages automatically. Once calculated, the tax fillings are clearly labeled with supporting evidence for the IRS.

👉 AWS and GCP log files and data are a goldmine. Last week, I covered Bilanc, which uses log files to figure out per-account unit economics. Now, we calculate R&D tax credits. The unlock here is LLM's ability to understand unstructured data. The hard part is understanding the moat, but time will tell.

In an era where technology and finance are increasingly intertwined, these four fintech companies stand out as catalysts for positive change. By driving progress in digital payments, asset management, lending, and decentralized finance, they are not only making financial services more accessible and efficient—they are also paving the way for a more inclusive and empowered global economy. Staying informed about their innovations can help you seize new opportunities and take part in the future of finance.

 

👀Things to know 👀

 

PayPal issued low guidance and warned of a “transition year.” The stock is down 8% in extended trading despite PayPal reporting a 9% growth in revenue and 23% EBITDA. Gross profit is down 4% YoY. PayPal's total revenues were $29Bn for the year

Adyen reported 22% revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 46% for the full year. Adyen's total revenues were $1.75bn for the full year. The margin was down from 55% the previous year, impacted by hiring ahead of growth.

🤔 PayPal’s Braintree (unbranded) is losing market share in the US, while Adyen is winning it. eCommerce is growing ~9 to 10% YoY, and PayPal’s transaction revenue grew by 6.7%. The higher interest rate environment meant interest on balances dragged up the total revenue figure. Their core business is losing market share. Adyen is outgrowing the market by ~12%.

🤔 The PayPal button (branded) is losing to SHOP Pay and Apple Pay. The branded experience from Apple and Shopify is delightful for users; it’s fast and helps with small details like delivery tracking. That experience translates to higher conversion (and more revenue) for merchants.

🤔 The lack of a single global platform hurts PayPal, but it helps Adyen. In the earnings call, the new CEO admitted their mix of platforms like Venmo, PayPal, and Braintree are holding them back. They aim to combine and simplify, but that’s easier said than done.

🤔 Making a single platform from PayPal, Venmo, and Braintree won’t be easy. There’s a graveyard of payment company CEOs who tried to make “one platform” from things they acquired years ago. It’s crucial if they’re going to grow that they get their innovation edge back. Adyen has one platform in every market.

🤔 PayPal’s UK and European acquiring business is a bright spot. The UK and EU delivered 20% of overall revenue, growing 11% YoY. Square and Toast don’t have market share here, while iZettle, which PayPal acquired in 2018, is a strong market player. Overall though, it’s yet another tech stack and business that’s not part of a single global platform.

The two banks provided accounts to UK front companies secretly owned by an Iranian petrochemicals company. PCC has used these entities to receive funds from Iranian entities in China, concealed with trustee agreements and nominee directors. 

🤔 This is the headline every bank CEO fears. Oof. Shares of both banks have been down since the news broke, but this will no doubt involve crisis calls, committees, appearing in front of the regulator, and, finally, some sort of fine.

🤔 The "risk-based approach" has been arbitraged. A UK company with relatively low annual revenue would look "low risk" at onboarding. One business the FT covered looked like a small company at a residential address to compliance staff. They'd likely apply branch-level controls instead of the enterprise-grade controls you'd see for a large corporation. 

🤔 Hiring more staff won't fix this problem; it's a mindset and technology challenge. In theory, all of the skill and technology that exists to manage risks with large corporate customers (in the transaction banking divisions) are available to the other parts of a bank. In practice, they're not. Most banks lack a single data set and the ability for compliance officers in one team to see data from another part of the org. Getting the basics right with data and tooling is incredibly hard and will involve a multi-year effort. 

🤔 These things are rarely the failure of an individual or department; the issue is systemic. While two banks are named in this headline, the issue is everywhere. Banks need more data and better data to train better AI and machine learning. That all needs to happen in real-time as a compliment to the human staff. Throwing bodies at this won't solve the visibility issue teams have.

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