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đŸ’„Tether Papers: This is exactly who acquired 70% of all USDT ever issuedđŸ’„
thedinarian
November 10, 2022
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If cryptocurrency was an engine, Tether (USDT) is one of its pistons.

Over the past seven years, the maverick stablecoin has evolved into a primary crutch for the ecosystem. It’s a tool for onboarding new money, managing and growing liquidity, pricing digital assets, and generally oiling crypto markets to keep them smooth.

Tether boasted a $1 billion market capitalization when Bitcoin hit $20,000 at the end of 2017. This year, it’s a $70 billion-plus powerhouse. 

Practically every crypto exchange supports USDT trade in some form. The makeup of Tether’s reserves and its inner workings are yet to be disclosed in clear detail.

Still, the question of who exactly buys Tether directly from its parent company Bitfinex has remained unanswered since its inception way back in 2014.

Earlier this year, Protos shed light on that mystery by reporting that just two companies, Alameda Research and Cumberland Global, were responsible for seeping roughly two-thirds of all Tether into the crypto ecosystem.

Today, we reveal a lot more. 

We’ve spent months cataloguing and investigating every single USDT ever sent to and from Tether, across the eight blockchains and layers on which it currently exists: Omni (Bitcoin), Liquid (Bitcoin), Ethereum, Tron, Simple Ledger Protocol (Bitcoin Cash), EOS, Solana, and Algorand.

Here’s what we found.

Birds-eye view of Tether

Protos pulled blockchain data from all disclosed Tether Treasuries and Printers across the various layers, stretching back to 2014 until October 31, 2021.

We then filtered out transactions between Printers and Treasuries, as our analysis is primarily concerned with USDT sent to and received from third parties.

After accounting for disclosed chain swaps (the process of transferring already-issued USDT between protocols), blockchain data shows Tether:

  • distributed $108.5 billion in USDT,
  • received $32.7 billion in USDT in that same period,
  • sent a staggering majority of USDT directly to market makers and liquidity providers.

It must be noted that the figures cited in this analysis won’t always map one-to-one with Tether’s circulating supply.

Remember, we’ve tracked Tether Treasuries’ outflows and inflows; those volumes will not reflect Tether’s market value exactly (implying that Tether understandably recycles some USDT sent back to its Treasuries).

To make it clear: we’ve analyzed USDT flowing out of Tether Treasuries and linked blockchain addresses to specific entities.

Some of these entities maintain crypto exchanges; the data presented here relates specifically to their operational addresses as companies and not their exchange wallets, be they hot or cold.

Market makers, for our purposes, are simply defined as entities that have received multiple individual transactions from Tether Treasuries of $100 million USDT or more.

The term “market maker” traditionally refers to entities able to profit on the spread of assets (the difference in price between buy and sell orders).

Since it’s unclear which entities in the crypto ecosystem are strictly market making and which also utilize high frequency trading, proprietary trading desks, or operate venture capital funds, this is our attempt to delineate between them (albeit with a broad definition).

Within the context of Tether, market makers eke out gains by supplying crypto exchanges like Binance, Huobi, and FTX with liquidity for their various USDT trading pairs.

  • Tether supplied categorized “market makers” with 89.2% of all USDT ($97 billion) it sent.
  • Trading funds and other miscellaneous companies received $9.2 billion (8.5%).
  • Smaller transactions deemed to have been received by “individuals” amounted to $2.35 billion (2.3%).

As Protos reported in August, market makers Alameda Research (spearheaded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried) and Cumberland Global (a subsidiary of trading giant DRW) are still the biggest fish in Tether markets.

Together, Alameda and Cumberland received at least $60.3 billion in USDT across the time period analyzed, equal to around 55% of all outbound volume — ever.

$49.2 billion (71%) of Alameda and Cumberland’s USDT was acquired in the past year alone, equal to about 60% of all Tether issued in that time.

Market makers (Tether’s biggest customers)

Alameda Research

Alameda Research describes itself as a “multistage crypto and fintech investment firm,” and it made 29-year-old chief exec Bankman-Fried crypto’s richest billionaire (Forbes estimates his wealth at $26.5 billion).

Bankman-Fried founded Alameda Research in 2017 after leaving quant shop Jane Street. He opted to brand the fund a “research” unit to avoid banking problems as it started arbitrage Bitcoin trade in Japan.

The firm has historically been headquartered in Hong Kong, but recently announced plans to ship over to another tax haven, Nassau.

We’ve identified more than 70% of all USDT ever issued. For more information on the remaining 30%, please visit our FAQ.

Alameda Research wears multiple hats. It’s the parent company of crypto and crypto derivatives exchange FTX, but it’s also a quantitative trader, and serves as a venture capitalist across the ecosystem.

The firm has led an impressive 18 funding rounds and participated in 71 more, according to Crunchbase.

One of Alameda’s most notable moves was its participation in ‘Ethereum killer’ Solana’s $314 million token sale earlier this year, alongside Polychain Capital and CoinShares.

Alameda Research’s lead brain Bankman-Fried is one of Solana’s most vocal proponents. Solana’s native token SOL has since grown to become the fifth most-valued cryptocurrency at press time, just behind Tether.

  • Tether sent almost $36.7 billion in USDT to Alameda Research.
  • $31.7 billion (86%) was received in the past year.
  • Alameda Research accounted for 37% of all outbound volume. 

While Tether sent nearly $30.1 billion (87%) of Alameda’s USDT directly to FTX, blockchain data shows Alameda operating on a number of other crypto exchanges.

Alameda also received:

  • $2.1 billion (6%) on Binance, 
  • $1.7 billion (5%) on Huobi, 
  • $115 million (less than 1%) to OKEx. 

The rest of Alameda’s Tether ($705 million, 2%) was sent to non-exchange addresses.

Cumberland Global

Cumberland Global is the crypto-trading subsidiary of markets powerhouse DRW, founded in 1992 by chief exec Donald R. Wilson.

As we reported in August, DRW is one of finance’s top dogs, particularly in futures markets (the Financial Times previously said the unit is “an important source” of futures trading volume across the globe).

Cumberland was first launched in 2014, during DRW’s gruelling five-year battle with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over alleged market manipulation — which it won in 2018.

Cumberland says it onboards wealthy individuals and financial institutions to the crypto ecosystem.

One of those clients is VanEck. The US Securities and Exchange Commission visited DRW in 2019 to discuss the listing of VanEck’s SolidX Bitcoin Trust on Cboe. 

VanEck’s Trust was eventually offered to institutional investors via over-the-counter desks like the ones DRW operates.

  • Tether sent $23.7 billion in USDT to Cumberland.
  • $17.6 billion (74%) was received in the past year.
  • Cumberland received 22% of all outbound volume. 

It has long been suspected, but Protos can confirm that Cumberland is one of Binance’s primary liquidity providers and market makers, and has been on the exchange since around early 2019.

Tether issued Cumberland $18.7 billion in USDT (79%) directly to Binance, and a much smaller amount to other exchanges:

  • $131.5 million (less than 1%) on Poloniex. 
  • $9 million (less than 1%) on Bitfinex.
  • $30 million (less than 1%) on both Huobi and OKEx.

The rest of Cumberland’s Tether ($4.9 billion, 21%) was sent to non-exchange addresses.

iFinex

iFinex is the mother company to its more well-known subsidiaries Bitfinex and Tether. The group has existed in the cryptocurrency space since 2013 and has survived three different hacks, regulatory scrutiny, and extended criticism from online commentators and mainstream media.

iFinex operates as a lender, exchange, stablecoin issuer, VC fund, and trading desk. It has a parent company, the Hong Kong-registered DigFinex.

It’s difficult to determine exactly which country iFinex, Bitfinex, and Tether operates out of: there are no actual offices. Instead, the organization is a mesh of shell companies located in the British Virgin Islands, Hong Kong, Switzerland, and other jurisdictions.

iFinex owners and shareholders seem to be the same individuals who launched it: chief exec JL Van der Velde and chief financial officer Giancarlo Devasini — the two-man team leading Bitfinex and Tether (both multi-billion dollar companies). 

Chief technology officer Paolo Ardoino began working for the pair in 2016. Functionally, as the creators of Tether, they work with everyone who receives USDT.

  • Tether sent at least $4.5 billion in USDT to iFinex.
  • Only $197.5 million (4%) of that was in the past year.
  • iFinex received at least 4% of all outbound volume.

As to be expected, iFinex was one of Tether’s first true “market makers.” The Hong Kong-headquartered firm issued iFinex $4.5 billion in USDT between October 2016 and the start of 2020 — equal to 96% of iFinex’s trackable receipts.

  • $4.46 billion (9.99%) was sent directly to Bitfinex.
  • $1.1 million (less than 1%) was issued to wallets unrelated to Bitfinex.
  • iFinex received at least 4% of all USDT issued across the time period analyzed.

iFinex and its subsidiaries have invested in several other ventures, including but not limited to Netki (a digital identity company) and Exordium (a video game company owned by Blockstream’s Samson Mow).

Nexo

Zug-registered Nexo is a sizable player in the DeFi ecosystem. It operates an exchange, a crypto lending service, and an over-the-counter trading desk.

Nexo’s crypto platform offers yield on a raft of cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins like Tether.

Nexo has been around since 2017, having deployed its own utility token NEXO in May 2018.

Understandably, Nexo handles large amounts of USDT to help manage its activities within the space.

  • Tether sent Nexo $2.6 billion in USDT.
  • Practically all of that was in the past year.
  • Nexo received a touch over 2% of all outbound volume. 

The group doesn’t issue directly to exchanges, instead relying on intermediary wallets to manage its USDT.

Nexo directed at least $1.7 billion USDT directly to its own platform, but similarly to Alameda Research, it is active across multiple exchanges.

As for where Nexo directs its USDT (these figures also include USDT inflows not directly from Tether Treasuries), the unit:

  • sent roughly $1.45 billion in USDT to Binance, 
  • directed $111 million in USDT to Huobi,
  • and deposited more than $57 million USDT to FTX.

Nexo also administered $39 million USDT to defunct Chinese exchange RenRenBit, and $84 million USDT to Bitfinex.

(NB: Nexo and other entities named in this research are known to handle funds on behalf of their clients. So, it could be that some of their outflowing USDT was processed for those parties.)

The firm sent roughly $35 million in USDT to addresses not linked directly to exchanges.

Last month, the New York Attorney General issued Nexo a cease and desist notice to stop it from offering services to crypto users in the state.

At the time, its chief exec Antoni Trenchev said the company had already initiated IP-based geo-blocking to keep New Yorkers out.

Heka

Heka is a market-neutral market maker operated by academics from the University of Malta and several other Maltese individuals. Specifically named in the Paradise Papers are Professor Simon Grima, Dr. Frank Dimech, as well as Joseph Xuerub and Adrian Galea.

The price per share to invest in Heka’s private fund is public and has increased by nearly 100% over three years. Minimum investment amount is $85,000. 

Recently, Heka seems to be tied to Abraxas Capital Management — a company controlled by professional portfolio manager Fabio Frontini and based in London.

  • Tether sent Heka more than $1.5 billion in USDT.
  • $1.1 billion (71%) of that was distributed in the past year.
  • Heka received about 1.5% of all Tether ever distributed.

Heka is primarily a cryptocurrency trading operation. So, naturally it requested Tether directly to the various exchanges it inhabits.

Overall, Heka utilized: 

  • at least $1.05 billion in USDT (68%) on Bitfinex, 
  • more than $144 million (9%) on Binance,
  • and $132 million (8.5%) on Huobi.

Heka also traded on the no-longer-operational RenRenBit ($90 million, 6%), as well as the popular platform Kraken, where it received $60.4 million (4%).

Just over $70 million (4.5%) in USDT was sent to non-exchange addresses under Heka’s control.

Indeed, Heka moves hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Tether and yet they have no website, no way to reach out to them, and no real internet presence whatsoever. 

The reason they’ve been flagged is their discoverability through the Paradise Papers. None of the individuals from Heka responded for comment.

Jump Crypto

Last September, Chicago-bound trading giant Jump Trading made a widely publicized crypto push by investing in decentralized exchange Serum, on Solana.

Serum and Jump had inked a deal for an undisclosed amount that would see the outfit provide the liquidity necessary to make Serum-powered platforms like Mango Markets usable.

Since then, Tether has issued Jump:

  • at least $1.1 billion in USDT on Solana this year,
  • equal to almost 99% of all USDT that exists on that blockchain.
  • Jump Crypto is considered the top liquidity provider to Mango Markets and Solana overall.

Jump “officially” spun out its Crypto subsidiary this September. 

At the time, press materials said Jump Crypto builds tooling and other software infrastructure for blockchains, as well as being an “active participant in trading and market-making activities that help make global crypto markets more efficient.”

While Jump’s crypto activities have been mostly undisclosed, reports indicate the unit has been particularly active on crypto exchanges Bitfinex and BitMEX. 

This makes it likely that Jump makes up a considerable amount of the unidentified Tether amounts cited in this analysis, particularly those to Bitfinex.

Funds and companies (Tether’s medium-sized customers)

Protos sorted entities into the ‘funds and companies’ bracket if they often received USDT transactions in lots between $10 million and $100 million at a time.

Many of the entities in this category are hedge funds and trading units, which generate profit by investing and trading cryptocurrencies.

Multiple entities maintain over-the-counter trading desks and other arbitrage units to exploit price differences between exchanges.

Three Arrows

Three Arrows Capital is run by popular crypto personalities Su Zhu and Kyle Davies. It has registered business addresses in both Singapore (where it maintains an office) and the British Virgin Islands.

As of 2020, the company had a large interest in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. The reason Three Arrows has two registered business addresses is likely due to the rule in Singapore that says it cannot control more than (S)$250 million ($183 million) in assets at any given time.

  • Tether sent Three Arrows at least $674 million in USDT.
  • At least $502 million (74%) of that was in the past year.
  • Three Arrows has received at a minimum 7.3% of all USDT in the ‘funds and companies’ bracket.

Three Arrows describes itself as a crypto hedge fund that provides “risk-adjusted returns,” and it operates similarly to Heka.

The group mostly trades and invests in cryptocurrencies for profit, as opposed to the large-scale liquidity provision exacted by the likes of Alameda and Cumberland.

It also acts as a venture capitalist on occasion. Most recently, Three Arrows backed Sam Altman’s Worldcoin, a controversial biometric data-farming gambit that pays individuals to scan their irises for a small amount of cryptocurrency. 

Unlike Heka, Three Arrows receives USDT from Tether to an intermediary address before distributing it to trading platforms like Huobi and Binance. 

Stablecoins aside, Three Arrows’ main address has mostly traded:

  • Ethereum and Ethereum-bound Bitcoin (WBTC),
  • DeFi platform Yearn Finance’s native token (YFI),
  • Exchange tokens like FTX’s FTT, Uniswap (UNI), and SushiSwap (SUSHI).

Three Arrows has also handled significant amounts of yield tokens Compound (COMP) and Aave (AAVE), as well as blockchain oracle token Chainlink (LINK).

It’s worth noting that Three Arrows — like the other entities in this analysis — has handled significantly more than $674 million USDT in its history. The figures cited above only relate to the tokens it received directly from Tether Treasuries.

Three Arrows has also sent Tether Treasuries far more USDT than the figures listed here (more on that later). 

Blockchain data also indicates that Three Arrows switched to receiving USDT directly to exchanges earlier this year — likely to Binance. 

So, some portion of the “Binance Market Maker” volumes cited earlier almost certainly belongs to Three Arrows.

Bitquery shows that Three Arrows has collectively been sent billions in USDT from exchanges Binance, Bitfinex, and FTX, funds it acquires by trading digital assets.

Delchain

Delchain is a peculiar piece of the Tether puzzle. It’s owned and operated by Tether’s primary banking partner, Deltec Bank and Trust.

Paolo Ardoino, Tether and Bitfinex’s CTO, briefly served as a director, and Janvier Chalopin, the son of the Deltec Bank and Trust’s chief exec, is a director.

Delchain, though established in 2019, has still moved a significant amount of Tether and partners with many influential cryptocurrency companies, including Bitfinex, Kraken, and Tether itself.

  • Tether sent Delchain at least $908 million in USDT.
  • USDT was distributed steadily over time — 63% of it in the past year.
  • Delchain received about 10% of all USDT from the ‘funds and companies’ bracket.

Overall, Delchain directed: 

  • About $694 million (76%) of its USDT to Bitfinex,
  • $211 million (23%) to Kraken,
  • and $3.2 million (less than 1%) to Binance.

Blockchain Access and RenRenBit

UK-based market maker Blockchain Access is another notable entity to have received large amounts of USDT directly from Tether.

Blockchain Access manages crypto exchange Blockchain.com — headquartered in Luxembourg. It received more than $881 million in USDT, with $679 million (77%) issued in the past year.

We tracked Blockchain Access’ USDT to crypto exchanges including Binance, FTX, Bitfinex, and Nexo. It has also handled significant amounts of Basic Attention Token (BAT), DeFi token Aave, as well as Chainlink, OMG Network, and Origin Network.

Lastly, RenRenBit. The Singapore-headquartered company that serviced the China-based exchange of the same name was issued over $200 million in USDT.

(NB: Bitfinex’s AML agent was once a Hong Kong firm “Renrenbee Ltd,” highlighting how close RenRenBit’s relationship was with Bitfinex).

Individual traders (Tether’s smallest customers)

For our ‘individuals’ bracket, we considered entities to be individual traders if Tether issued them USDT valued under $10 million at a time.

This is obviously not perfect, however considering the volumes linked to aforementioned funds, companies, and market makers, this proves an effective method of separating crypto trading enterprises from individual crypto traders.

The first character on our list is tied to multiple companies, but according to information gathered by Protos, they also were issued Tether under their personal name.

Shilong’s Web, Tether’s most curious customer

Shilong Wang is a curiosity, to say the least. They appear, on the surface, to handle USDT for a raft of trading firms, including little-known managers Paretone Capital, Aoide Capital, Max Victory Wealth Management, and ZB Trade — registered to tax havens around the world.

Paretone and Aoide curiously share a physical address in San Jose, California at Hanhai Park. Their co-founder and chief exec is listed as a “Keke Wang” on Aoide’s website, who is noticeably absent from any corporate filings.

Protos visited Paretone and Aoide’s purported offices but found no mention of either firm on the building’s office guide.

We refers to Shilong-connected entities as “Shilong’s Web.”

  • Tether issued Shilong’s Web $595 million in USDT.
  • Roughly 1% of it was received in the past year.
  • Shilong’s Web is responsible for 6.5% of the ‘funds and companies’ bracket.

It should be highlighted just how important a customer Shilong was to Tether. In the second half of 2019, Shilong’s Web represented over 5% of all USDT ever issued — just before the likes of Alameda and Cumberland took such a keen interest.

Shilong’s Web unexpectedly transacted semi-frequently with Cumberland Global:

  • Shilong’s Web sent Cumberland $20.4 million in USDT between April and August 2019.
  • Cumberland directed $1.14 million in USDT back to Shilong’s Web in April 2019.
  • It’s likely Cumberland operates over-the-counter services for trading entities like Shilong’s.

Shilong’s Web deposited its USDT to exchanges like Huobi and Binance, but it was also responsible for sending over $108 million in USDT to long-serving Japanese exchange Bitbank.

Christopher Harborne (the Brexit Bankroller)

As we reported in April, Christopher Harborne made international headlines as Brexit’s bankroller. 

He personally donated in total $19 million to political party Reform UK — the lead lobbying group behind the UK’s successful bid to leave the European Union.

Harborne’s web of shell companies were made public in the Panama Papers. 

Harborne first appeared as a DigFinex shareholder (iFinex, Bitfinex, and Tether’s parent company) under his alternative Thai identity Chakrit Sakunkrit between 2017 and 2018.

This means Harborne was a DigFinex shareholder at the time of his donations to Reform UK. It’s common for individuals who do continued business in Thailand to adopt a local moniker.

He’s also the father of Will Harborne, chief exec of decentralized exchange DiversiFi, which started out Ethfinex, a sister company to Bitfinex. DiversiFi spun out from Bitfinex in 2019.

Protos can now reveal that Tether issued Harborne more than $70 million in USDT under his Thai name in early 2019.

TRON’s Justin Sun

Notorious marketeer and TRON founder Justin Sun has received more Tether than any other individual. 

We first made Sun’s prolific Tether buying public in August. In total, he’s acquired at least $200 million in USDT. Most of the funds we’ve linked to Sun were sent throughout 2019 and 2020.

Sun received nearly $50 million in USDT directly on Binance. It’s likely he’s received a lot more to both unidentified wallets and various exchanges.

Sun was notably the first ever recipient of Tether on the TRON blockchain in April 2019. He’s evolved to become a prolific investor in NFTs and his exploits across the DeFi ecosystem have made him a popular crypto figure.

Blockchain data also shows he sent $120 million back to Tether Treasuries.

Tether returned to Treasuries (inflows)

Tether inflows — funds sent back to Tether Treasuries — are comparatively more difficult to track than outflows.

While Protos has identified more than 70% worth of USDT ever issued, more than 80% of USDT ever returned to Treasuries came from cryptocurrency exchanges. 

This makes the sender of those transactions practically impossible to identify.

  • $23 billion in USDT (62%) was returned in lots over $100 million (market makers). 
  • $12.7 billion (34%) was sent in batches between $10 million and $100 million (funds and companies).
  • $1.5 billion (4%) flowed into Treasuries in sums under $10 million (individual traders).

We did manage to track USDT inflows for two prominent entities: Three Arrows and Nexo.

While Three Arrows did switch from having USDT issued to third party wallets to exchanges like Binance instead, it kept retrieving funds from various exchanges to its main wallet before returning to Tether.

  • Three Arrows sent back nearly $1.96 billion in USDT in the time period analyzed.
  • More than $1.1 billion (58%) was returned as crypto markets peaked between late April and May this year.
  • Three Arrows is responsible for 5.2% of all USDT ever sent back to Treasuries.

As for Nexo, it followed similar patterns as Three Arrows — pulling funds back from the various exchanges on which it operates before returning USDT to Treasuries.

  • Nexo sent $1.74 billion in USDT back to Tether Treasuries.
  • Nearly $1.75 billion (94%) was returned between the second half of May and late July, 2021 (as markets bottomed out).
  • Nexo was behind 4.7% of all USDT sent back to Tether Treasuries.

What the Tether Papers mean

It must be stressed that Protos is not explicitly alleging any wrongdoing on behalf of any of the entities detailed in this investigation.

But importantly, crypto traders on most exchanges should understand the sheer size of who they could be trading against. 

The exact size of market makers like Cumberland and Alameda — as well as funds like Heka, Three Arrows, and Delchain — are previously unreported. 

These entities are undoubtedly dominant forces across multiple platforms, with the ability to easily out-trade smaller crypto investors.

Numerous other large and unnamed trading funds have acquired hundreds of millions of dollars in USDT. These companies are mostly registered to tax havens like the British Virgin Islands, Hong Kong, and the Seychelles.

Some, similarly to Shilong’s Web, have sent and received USDT from major players like Cumberland Global, while others assisted prominent projects such as Decentraland to manage Ether raised throughout their ICOs. 

The total value of the Tether in the ‘other funds and companies’ bracket exceeded $7 billion. Protos will reveal information about these companies in future investigations.

Still, we emphasize that Tether has indisputably embedded itself within the crypto ecosystem, and for better or worse, serves a purpose within it.

So, it stands to reason that any firm or individual who operates within the crypto space is likely to interact with USDT at some point.

It’s worth highlighting that funds like Three Arrows effectively make use of the Tether they receive, as proven by inflow patterns.

Three Arrows was able to acquire USDT in the leadup to a giant crypto bull run, and then return those funds as the market was cooling off. 

This shows that USDT can be utilized for profit — as it should. It is the leading stablecoin, and allowing traders a neutral zone to trade in and out of their crypto positions is its entire business model.

đŸ’„But the exact workings of Tether are unclear. Quite literally, nobody knows precisely how Tether operates — or which companies’ commercial paper make up an overwhelming majority of its assets backing USDT.đŸ’„

đŸ’„We understand that Tether lends out its USDT in overcollateralized loans, likely for Bitcoin and Ether, but Tether has never formally disclosed how those operations work.đŸ’„

đŸ’„In fact, Tether has gone out of its way to obfuscate the services it provides to the crypto industry.đŸ’„

Discounts for large issuances are rumored. In our research, we are yet to find any confirmation of any discounts for USDT purchases.

But what is proven is that Bankman-Fried’s Alameda Research and Cumberland Global are two prolific Tether buyers that trust USDT is valued correctly.

Together, they’ve acquired at least $60 billion worth of USDT in the past two years. They inject liquidity into the ecosystem’s leading exchanges based on their trust in Tether, which in turn provides markets with the confidence that 1 USDT is equal to $1.

đŸ’„Whether that’s true all the time — unfortunately nobody knows for sure.đŸ’„

Regardless, Cumberland and Alameda, and to a lesser extent units like Jump Crypto, believe every USDT is always “fully backed by Tether’s reserves,” and that Tether has enough cash on hand to service dollar redemptions.

In the time between the end of Protos’ data analysis (October 31 until today), Tether has printed more than $4 billion worth of its stablecoin, bringing the total USDT in circulation to nearly $75 billion.

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Key Upcoming Dates & Events

1. Referral to Magistrate Judge for Report & Recommendation

The court has referred Middleton’s motion to vacate (filed under FRCP 60(d)(3)) to Magistrate Judge Vera M. Scanlon for a Report and Recommendation.

2. Status Conference (via ZoomGov)

A status conference is scheduled for August 26, 2025, at 4:00 PM (Eastern Time). This will take place via ZoomGov, presided over by Magistrate Judge Scanlon.

3. Extended Time to Appeal

Notably, there’s also a stipulation extending the time to file a Notice of Appeal, now set to no later than September 12, 2025.

Summary of What's Ahead This Year

1. August 26, 2025 – A ZoomGov status conference will be held. This is a crucial opportunity for both sides to update the court on the motion’s progress, scheduling, and next procedural steps.

2. Post-Conference Period – After the status ...

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thedinarian@thedinarian
16 hours ago

🚹 BREAKING: Forbes list of “Alleged SEC Securities” shows NO $XRP đŸ”„

That means the SEC no longer counts XRP among alleged securities đŸš«đŸ“‘

👉 Ripple victory is loud & clear
👉 XRP = Utility, not a security
👉 The real bull run fuel is here 🚀🌍

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thedinarian@thedinarian
August 17, 2025
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Pyth Network (PYTH) To Rally Higher? This Emerging Fractal Setup Saying Yes!

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

But while the short-term dip might look discouraging, PYTH’s chart is showing something far more interesting: a price structure that mirrors the exact same bullish breakout pattern that sent Skale (SKL) soaring by triple digits earlier this month.

PYTH Mirrors SKL’s Breakout Structure

A glance at SKL’s daily chart reveals a textbook falling wedge formation — a well-known bullish reversal pattern. Once SKL broke above the wedge and printed a higher high followed by a higher low, it flipped both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages into firm support. That technical shift triggered a 148% rally in just days.

PYTH appears to be tracing the same path.

Like SKL, PYTH has already broken out from its falling wedge and formed a higher high and higher low. It is now consolidating just beneath a critical confluence of resistance, with the 100-day MA at $0.1235 and the 200-day MA at $0.1481 — a setup eerily similar to SKL’s pre-breakout structure.

What’s Next for PYTH?

For the bullish fractal to fully play out, PYTH will need to close decisively above the $0.1235–$0.1481 zone, ideally on rising volume. A confirmed breakout could open the door to the first upside target of $0.21, representing roughly 78% potential gains from current levels.

However, confirmation is key. Until PYTH clears these moving average hurdles, it remains vulnerable to extended consolidation or even a false breakout. Still, the fractal similarity to SKL is hard to overlook — and if history repeats, PYTH bulls could be on the verge of a major move.

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thedinarian@thedinarian
August 16, 2025
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Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎
👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

  • Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
  • Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
  • Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

  • Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
  • Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
  • Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

  • Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
  • Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
  • Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

  • Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
  • Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

  1. Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
  2. Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

  • Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
  • Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

  • Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
  • Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
  • Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
  • Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
  • Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

 

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thedinarian@thedinarian
August 02, 2025
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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications. 

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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