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đŸ’„NYDFS Releases Draft Regulation on Assessing Operating Costs for Digital Asset OversightđŸ’„
December 03, 2022
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Subject to a 10-day pre-proposal comment period, followed by a 60-day comment period upon publication in the state register, the New York State Department of Financial Services has published a draft regulation outlining the proposed methodologies to assess licensed virtual currency businesses for supervision and examination costs.

If it comes into effect, the proposed regulation will create a provision in the state budget FY23 for DFS to collect supervisory costs from virtual currency businesses, helping them acquire top talent for the virtual currency regulatory team. A proficient regulatory team would eventually ensure that the DFS stays adequately capable of protecting customer interests and the safety and soundness of the industry ecosystem.

Regulating virtual asset companies to ensure that they adhere to the industry-wide best practices is nothing new in the state of New York. After all, the regulatory framework, comprising efforts toward licensing, supervision, and enforcement, has been in place since 2015. It was the year when the state adopted 23NYCCR Part 200, which mandated obtaining licenses before engaging in virtual currency businesses under the authority given to the DFS by the FSL or Financial Services Law.

However, the genesis of New York’s digital asset regulation efforts involves a lot more. Before delving deeper into the current regulation proposed by the DFS, let’s look at how the virtual assets regulation framework kept evolving in the state.

Virtual Currency Regulation in the State of New York: The Genesis

BitLicense is probably the most discussed and debated among the efforts undertaken by the State so far in the realm of virtual currencies and their regulation.

BitLicense

What came as flagship crypto and virtual currency regulation in the state was but a licensing regime at its core. First issued in 2015, BitLicense implied a business license issued by the NYDFS for companies engaged in virtual currency activity.

There is no denying that the licensing regime was received by the industry and its diverse components with a significant amount of anxiety. Industry stakeholders contended that the regulations were discouraging and disincentivizing and required much more compliance than what the standard financial establishments had to adhere to.

Pushbacks that the regulation drew from emerging businesses drove the authorities to make some changes in the framework to make it more accommodative and inclusive. The regulators allowed the new licensees to collaborate with the existing BitLicense holders so that the latter could receive specific guidance to overcome the hurdles in obtaining the license.

However, there was no compulsion for the prevailing players to guide the new license applicant. On top of that, there was no reduction in the fees that a new applicant, an emerging virtual currency business, might have to pay together towards obtaining the licenses, paying the application and legal fees, etc.

While BitLicense remained a bone of contention and a reason for many virtual asset companies to relocate to a new crypto-friendly jurisdiction, more reasons for new businesses to worry continued to pop up. And the latest one among them was the 2-year moratorium imposed on new proof-of-work mining.

2-Year Moratorium on New PoW Mining

As recently as in the third week of November 2022, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed a bill introducing a two-year moratorium on new PoW mining. It included new and renewed air permits for fossil fuel power plants used for PoW mining, considered energy-intensive or sometimes an energy-inefficient form of crypto mining.

The moratorium came into effect despite a series of objections raised by the New York Crypto Industry stakeholders. Although the moratorium kept existing operations like Greenidge Generation and other hydroelectricity-powered processes out of its purview, many industry lobbyists and organizations termed it as nothing less than a bad policy.

For instance, the New York State Lead of the crypto-lobbying Blockchain Association termed the moratorium an existential threat while referring to the BitLicense regime as another obstacle. However, the bill proponents cited the negative impact more PoW mining could have had on the environment and asked for a detailed study on its implications while the ban on new permits for fossil-fuel-powered PoW mining operations would be in effect.

In such a scenario, riddled with the complexities that these regulations and licensing regimes introduced, the New York State virtual currency businesses come face to face with another regulatory scheme, the Virtual Currency Assessment Regulation.

Virtual Currency Assessment Regulation

The New York State Department of Financial Services is undoubtedly ambitious about the proposed regulation. Admittedly, it believes that the “assessment authority will allow the Department to continue building the team which is leading the nation with a suite of regulatory tools.”

The regulation applies to entities that obtained licenses under the 23NYCCR Part 200. The billing would occur five times a year, including four quarters and one final assessment billing. In the following segments, we will look at the proposals in greater detail.

The Basis of Billing

As proposed in the bill, there will be four quarterly assessments, each involving nearly 25 percent of the projected annual amount. The projection will indicate the tentative budget to cover the total operating cost as applicable at the time of billing.

The fifth billing – or the final assessment billing – would be a true-up to match the actual operating costs for the entire year. It would be pertinent to mention that the New York State fiscal year starts on April 1st and ends on March 31st.

Any entity that has received its license for a part of the quarter would be assessed for the full quarter, with amounts to be paid within a month from the billing date.

Total Operating Cost

Since this is the amount businesses would have to pay for the year, it is crucial to know what it comprises. The cost would have two components: the supervisory and the regulatory component.

The supervisory component implies the sum of the Transmission Volume Basis Assessment for an individual licensee, where the Transmission Volume Basis means the allocation instrument used to distribute 50% of the Supervisory Hours among licensees.

It is calculated based on the total number of virtual currency transmissions by each licensee in New York for the previous calendar year. The categories that the licensees would fall into could be Small, Medium, or Large, depending on the 5%, 15%, and 30% allocation of supervisory hours.

The regulatory component reflects the cost of license examinations. The hourly rates play a decisive role in determining license examination costs. Hourly rate, as defined in the proposed regulatory bill, would imply the average hourly salary and fringe benefit costs of the examiners and the staff assigned for the supervision of the Licensees.

Additionally, the rate would include a multiplier, which the superintendent would determine. Essentially, the multiplier would reflect a part of the other operating overhead expenses of the department.

It is to note here that Licensee, as proposed in the bill, would mean an individual, partnership, corporation, association, joint stock association, trust, or any other entity that has its license under the provisions of 23 NYCCR Part 200.

Penalizing Actions

Penalties, in the form of late fees and interest, would apply to all licensees. The penalizing authorities would include the FSL, the State Finance Law, and other relevant laws that might be applicable on a case-to-case basis.

These authorities are legally qualified and empowered to follow up on the nonpayment of penalties with appropriate enforcement actions. Such enforcement actions might include the suspension, revocation, expiration, or termination of licenses as deemed fit to the case.

Provisional Exemptions

Persons involved in the virtual currency business as a limited-purpose trust company or banking organization would not be assessed under 23NYCRR Part 200. For such entities, 23NYCRR Part 101 would continue to apply. However, if a person holds both, billing would be done separately for the limited purpose trust charter and the license.

Virtual Currency Assessment Regulation: A Boost or a Roadblock?

As the DFS believes, the effectuation of the proposed bill would help it strengthen the industry in the long run by ensuring a trustworthy, credible, and efficient virtual currency ecosystem.

The department would ensure best practices more rigorously as the costs associated with the department’s oversight of each person’s virtual currency would be properly taken care of. However, as many industry stakeholders believe, these bills might take a toll on the emerging businesses’ bottom lines, resulting in a growth impediment for the industry.

Many have already started seeing the proposal as a continuation of the apparent roadblocks that BitLicense and the 2-year moratorium on PoW mining pose to the industry. To what extent do these assumptions stand valid – only time should tell.

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👉UNIVERSAL HIGH INCOME (AKA Elon's Soft Landing)

"There is only basically one way to make everyone wealthy, and that is AI and robotics." — Elon Musk

It's called, "Universal High Income"

Elon’s concept of Universal High Income 🚀 (which he often uses instead of "Maximum" or "Basic" income) is a vision of a future where human labor is no longer a requirement for survival.

The combination of advanced AI and mass-produced humanoid robots (like Tesla’s Optimus) will break the traditional link between work and income â›“ïžâ€đŸ’„. Here is the breakdown 👇

đŸ”č From "Basic" to "High" Income 💎

While traditional Universal Basic Income (UBI) đŸ’” is often proposed as a government safety net to provide a minimum standard of living, Musk argues that AI will lead to Universal High Income (UHI) ✹

The "High" Part: He believes that in an AI-driven economy, people won't just have "enough to get by"

Instead, they will have access to a luxurious standard of living because goods and services will become incredibly cheap and abundant

Post-Scarcity: He envisions ...

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Make The Right Choice.. 😉

Don't follow the sheep into the slaughter house, because of the FALSE illusions.

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$318 Trillion in Debt Could Break the Silver Market

There’s one number Wall Street doesn’t want you thinking about: $318 trillion. That’s how much global debt exists right now, and my cousin Asian Guy breaks down why this debt spiral could collide with a silver market already in a multi-year supply deficit. In this video, he explains:

  • Why governments always inflate debt away

  • Why silver is facing record industrial demand and shrinking inventories

  • How paper silver is diverging from physical reality

  • Why some analysts see $100+ silver, or a system break before that

This isn’t hype. It’s math, history, and market stress signals lining up. The market hasn’t fully reacted yet. But the pressure is already there.

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👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚹 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🚹 Russia clears digital ruble for government usage starting January 2026 🚹

Russia’s retail CBDC launch has been postponed to September 2026, but federal government departments will be authorized to use the digital ruble for public-sector payments beginning 1 January 2026, according to a Ministry of Finance directive published last week. The move marks the first live deployment of Russia’s CBDC, albeit in a limited government-only pilot, and introduces programmable features that can restrict how recipients spend funds.

🔑Key points

đŸ”č Retail delay: Consumer launch pushed back from 1 July 2025 to 1 September 2026; no public explanation, but industry sources cite wallet-security audit gaps.

đŸ”č Government start date: Federal agencies can issue digital-ruble payments starting 1 Jan 2026 for social security, salaries, and capital expenditure; Ministry of Finance finalising eligible payment types by 31 Dec 2025.

đŸ”č Opt-in mechanism: Recipients (citizens, contractors, civil servants) choose digital ruble ...

🚹 Hong Kong finalizes Basel crypto rules for banks; capital charges kick in 1 Jul 2025 🚹

Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) published the final “Basel III standardized approach for crypto-asset exposures” on 20 Dec 2024, adopting the global Basel Committee framework with local modifications that enhance disclosure and tighten stablecoin reserve haircuts. The rules—subject to a three-month industry comment period—will be gazetted in March and become mandatory for all locally incorporated banks on 1 July 2025.

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🔑Key points

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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den
 the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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