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⚠️Von Greyerz: In The End The Dollar Goes To Zero & The US Defaults⚠️
December 05, 2022
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With US and Global debt exploding prior to both assets and debt imploding, let us look at the disastrous consequences for the US and the world.

Debt explosion leading to the currency becoming worthless has happened in history for as long as there has been some form of money whether we talk about 3rd century Rome, 18th century France or 20th century Weimar Republic and many many more.

So here we are again, another monetary era and another guaranteed collapse as von Mises said:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse
of a boom brought about by credit expansion”

This disastrous borrowed prosperity, with ZERO ability to repay the surging debt,  will lead to one of the three consequences below:

1. THE US$ GOES TO ZERO

2. A US DEFAULT

3. BOTH OF THE ABOVE

The most likely outcome is number 3 in my view. The dollar will go to ZERO and the US will default. The same will happen to most countries.

I outline the consequences for the world at the end of his article.

Many people say that the US can never default. That is of course absolute nonsense.

If a country prints worthless debt that nobody will buy in a currency that no one wants to hold, the country has definitely defaulted whatever spin they put on it.

In the next few years, not just US but all sovereign debt will only have one buyer which is the country that issues the debt. And every time a sovereign state buys its own debt, it has to issue more worthless debt that nobody will touch with a barge pole.

Printing more money to pay for previous sins has never worked and never will.

And this is how money dies, just like it has throughout history.

The current monetary era started with the foundation of the Fed in 1913 and the acceleration of debt and currency debasement since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. With just over 100 years into this era, it is now approaching the end, like they all do.

Global currencies are already down 97-99% since 1971 and we can now expect the final 1-3% decline for all money to become virtually worthless. This is of course nothing new in history since every single currency has always gone to ZERO. We must of course remember that the final 1-3% move means a 100% fall from today. The final collapse is always the quickest so it could easily happen in the next 2-5 years.

DEBT, DEBT AND MORE DEBT

Let’s look at how it has all evolved.

Although US debt has increased virtually every year since 1930, the acceleration started in the late 1960s and 1970s. With gold backing the dollar and therefore most currencies UNTIL 1971, the ability to borrow more money was restricted without depleting the gold reserves.

Since the gold standard prevented Nixon to print money and buy votes to stay in power, he conveniently got rid of those shackles “temporarily” as he declared on August 15, 1971. Politicians don’t change. Powell and Lagarde recently called the increase in inflation “transitory” but in spite of their bogus prediction, inflation has continued to rise.

Since 1971 total US debt has gone up 53X with GDP only up 22X as the graph below shows:

As the widening Gap between Debt and GDP in the graph above shows, it now takes ever more debt to achieve increases in GDP.  So without printing worthless money, REAL GDP would show a decline.

So this is what our politicians are doing, buying votes and creating fake growth through printed money. This gives the voter the illusion of  increased income and wealth. Sadly he doesn’t grasp that the illusory increase in living standard is all based on debt and devalued money.

Let’s also look at US Federal Debt:

Since Reagan became president in 1981, US federal debt has on average doubled every 8 years. Thus when Trump inherited the $20 trillion debt from Obama in 2017, I forecast that the debt would double by 2025 to $40t. That still looks like a valid projection but with the economic problems I expect, a $50t debt by 2025-6 cannot be excluded.

So presidents know they can buy the love of the people by running chronic deficits and printing money to make up for the difference.

But if we look at the graph above again, it shows that debt has gone up 35X since 1981 but that tax revenue has only increased 8X from $0.6t to $4.9t.

How can any sane person believe that with debt going up 4.5X faster than tax revenue that the debt can ever be repaid.

Even worse, with US interest payments on the debt surging from around 0% to probably 5% by 2025 the interest on the debt will climb to $2 trillion or circa 30% of the annual budget.

So with higher interest rates, higher deficits and rising inflation the scene is set for a high or hyper-inflationary period in the next few years.

FED PIVOT?

So virtually every observer believes that the Fed (and ECB) will not just stop raising interest rates but pivot and lower them again.

In my view this will not happen except for possibly very short term. The 40 year interest rate downtrend finished in 2020 and the world is unlikely to see low or negative rates for many years or decades.  High inflation and high rates will continue for years. But as we see in the 40 year chart of the 10 year US treasury below, there will be many corrections in the coming uptrend.

US MONEY SUPPLY GROWING AT 74% ANNUALISED

Between August 1971 and August 2019 US money supply grew at 6.1% p.a.

In August 2019, the hangover from the 2006-9 Great Financial Crisis hit the financial system again resulting in major support actions from the Fed and other central banks.

So the fresh problems emerged before Covid and before Ukraine. But those two new crises obviously exacerbated the systemic problems that had been put on ice for 10 years. This led to massive money printing and M1 in the US no longer increased at 6% annually but at a hyperinflationary 74% p.a. as the graph below shows.

 

$25 TRILLION GLOBAL LIQUIDITY/DEBT INCREASE AT ZERO COST

Central banks are always wrong and always behind the curve. They kept short term rates at zero or negative for over a decade. From 2009 to 2019 the balance sheets of major central banks increased by $13t. But then from Aug 2019 to 2022 an explosion in central bank debt took place, expanding their balance sheets $23t from $13t to $36t. All the same reasons that I discuss in the paragraph above regarding US money supply are obviously also valid for global debt expansion.

There is nothing like free money! The banks created this money at ZERO cost. They did no work and nor did they produce any goods or services. All they needed to do was to press a button. And with interest rates at zero or negative, many central banks were actually receiving interest from the lenders.

What a beautiful Ponzi scheme. CBs print/borrow money and then they are paid for the pleasure of borrowing this money.  Any private swindler launching such a scheme like Ponzi or Madoff would spend the rest of his life in prison but the bankers are praised for “saving” the system.

What virtually no individual understands is that this free money then enters the financial system as having a real intrinsic value. As with all Ponzi schemes, the current financial system will collapse too as the holders of the fake paper money realise that the money is worthless and that the emperor is totally naked.

That will be the final phase of the current monetary system with unlimited money printing as the $2.3 quadrillion debt pyramid collapses which I discussed in this article and also in this interview with Greg Hunter USA Watchdog .

This is what the global financial system looks like: 

The estimated $2 quadrillion gross derivatives is today quasi debt but will one day  become real debt, as central banks attempt to rescue the financial system. When counterparties fail, the gross will remain gross. So in total the world will face a $2,3 quadrillion debt resting on $2 trillion of central bank gold, a 0.1% coverage.

Within the next five years or so, the triangle is likely to be inverted with central bank gold as the foundation at the bottom. But instead of gold being only 0.1% of global liabilities, it will be as much as maybe 20%. That 200x revaluation of gold will be a combination of the value of global assets and liabilities collapsing and gold rising.

Personally I don’t believe in a lasting formal reset with a new currency system backed by gold. I cannot see the three major gold producers/holders China, Russia and India agreeing with the US on a revaluation. It is also questionable if the US has anywhere near the 8,000 tonnes of gold they are declaring. Also, China and Russia probably have considerably more gold than they are declaring.

Instead, after the fake paper market in gold has collapsed, the price must be based on supply and demand of unencumbered physical gold or Free Gold. But that can only happen after the current financial system based on fake money, debt and derivatives no longer functions. 

CONSEQUENCES

But before that, the world must pay for the excesses of the last 50 years. The consequences will be dire as we are facing a major cataclysm or disorderly reset which will involve:

  • DEBT DEFAULTS – SOVEREIGN, CORPORATE  & PRIVATE

  • BURSTING OF EPIC BUBBLES IN STOCKS, BONDS & PROPERTY

  • MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS WITH NO DESIRE FOR PEACE

  • SECULAR FALL OF LIVING STANDARDS DUE TO HIGHER COST OF ENERGY & ENERGY SHORTAGES

  • FOOD SHORTAGES LEADING TO MAJOR FAMINE AND CIVIL UNREST

  • POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY & CORRUPTION

  • NO COUNTRY WILL AFFORD SOCIAL SECURITY OR PENSIONS

  • INFLATION HYPERINFLATION AND LATER DEFLATIONARY IMPLOSION

I sincerely hope that these predictions will not take place. Because if they do, everyone will suffer dramatically for an extended period. No one, rich or poor will avoid these problems.

I am naturally not predicting, like a Cassandra, (my 2017 article with a timely gold projection) that this disorderly reset will absolutely take place. Only future historians will tell us what actually happened.

But what I am saying is that the risk of a major catastrophe has never been higher in history, whenever it actually happens.

Physical gold and silver will not save you but clearly be the best financial insurance you can hold.

Most important is a support system of family and friends. Remember also that in addition to family and friends, some of the best things in life are free like nature, music, books and many hobbies.

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Fund Tokenization Prepares Asset Managers for ‘Perfect Storm’

Synopsis:

  • Great Wealth Transfer will see $84 trillion of intragenerational asset transfer over the next 20 years
  • Gen Y and Z investors favor investment in alternative asset types, which tokenization makes more investable for HNW clients
  • Tokenization encourages platform changes, and will ultimately bring additional operational benefits

A triumvirate of large-scale market changes are set to transform the asset management industry over the next decade.

With trillions of dollars worth of assets set to flow into the wallets of Gen X, Y, and Z investors, much of which will accumulate onchain, asset managers who move first to serve this new market will gain an advantage in capturing this revenue opportunity. The immediate opportunity is similar to when the ETF format was introduced in 1993, with first-mover State Street launching the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)—now one of the largest ETFs globally. The tokenized asset format is today’s generational opportunity.

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The forthcoming vicennial transformation of the industry will enable it to transform and emerge triumphant. Those at the forefront of this technology evolution stand to dominate and shape the future of asset management.

 

Great Wealth Transfer prompts global investment shake-up

The asset management industry is on the cusp of the largest wealth transfer event ever, set to last for the next two decades. Consulting firm Cerulli Associates estimates $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands as wealth passes from the baby boomer generation to Gen X, Y, and Z investors.

However, the investment behavior of these younger benefactors differs significantly from their forebears in two ways. Holding Web3 wallets and accounts on Robinhood, rather than brokerage accounts like their parents, millennials are opting for a more self-service model in their long-term holdings. Add to that the shift in risk appetite, searching for higher growth through less conventional asset types like private markets and crypto, and the need for the industry to transform quickly is clear.

Whilst the industry is not currently set up to offer this new investor class more customization, as opposed to one-size-fits-all product offerings, an 80% majority of asset managers believe customization for the masses will be an important investment strategy in the next five years.

 
 

                                          Ryan Lovell, Chainlink Labs

 

While asset managers could build their own proprietary blockchain infrastructure and smart contract systems from the ground up, that approach would require significant resources and specialized engineers, extend time to market, and be at higher risk of technical vulnerabilities or implementation errors. On the other hand, fully outsourcing the implementation would leave them with limited roadmap control, interoperability, and customizability, along with dependency risks.

Ryan Lovell, director of capital markets at Chainlink Labs, commented: “That’s why leading asset managers are taking a hybrid approach, leveraging both existing systems and Chainlink’s decentralized infrastructure to implement modular solutions that can scale across multiple blockchains.”

 

Industry transformation through tokenization

The launch of tokenized funds by firms such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity International has created a need for the fund administration industry to evolve to an onchain format. However, nearly all, 93% of fund services firms, have not automated data inputs, data checks, and key workflows, so their operations are still manually intensive, leading to increased operational costs, reduced liquidity, and missed investment opportunities. Standard transfer agent processing can take between one and three days for routine transactions, and between five and seven days for complex cases requiring additional compliance checks, cross-border settlements, or manual document verification.

“Operational efficiency is just the starting point of tokenizing funds,” said Lovell. “The real value is meeting the needs of future investors who are increasingly accumulating wealth across multiple blockchain networks.”

In order to reach this new onchain world, asset managers and their service providers may not want to make a huge investment to completely change their infrastructure, but instead adapt their existing systems to make them compatible with multiple blockchains.

For example, in November 2024, SBI Digital Markets, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink completed the implementation of a tokenized fund to demonstrate how existing fund administration processes can be successfully made compatible with tokenized funds.

SBI Digital Markets, as a custodian and fund distributor, used smart contracts, oracle networks, and multiple blockchains to automate its processes. One of the key components was the digital transfer agent smart contract, which used multiple oracle networks from Chainlink and its blockchain-agnostic architecture to create a unified golden record.

Lovell compared the digital transfer agent to an offchain/onchain coordinator that does everything that a traditional transfer agent does, but in digital form.

“It does not replace the existing system but enables firms to be compatible with blockchain and then offer a service that can scale to all their customers,” he said. “Asset managers should be demanding this from their service providers.”

The pilot showed that a tokenized fund could maintain its share register on one blockchain while using Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to enable the processing of intensive fund lifecycle activities such as subscriptions and redemptions on different blockchains while meeting institutional security and compliance standards.

Swift, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink also settled tokenized fund subscriptions and redemptions using the Swift network, which enables payments with fiat currencies across more than 11,500 financial institutions in over 200 countries.

                                     Winston Quek, SBI Digital Markets

Winston Quek, CEO at SBI Digital Markets, said in a statement: “This new way of launching fund structures and administering them via smart contracts empowers both fund managers and their service providers to deliver new onchain financial products and lower operational costs to investors, both things they are actively looking for.”

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“We allow all of those service providers to coordinate outside of their firewalls,” said Lovell. “Chainlink’s goal is to enable the TradFi and DeFi worlds to seamlessly connect, which increases utility.”

 

The Great Wealth Transfer is driving asset management onchain

With $84 trillion set to flow from baby boomers to Gen X, Y, and Z, their demand for alternative asset types and customization will shape the future of asset management. While today’s systems may be prohibitively expensive to offer these benefits at scale, tokenization changes the economics.

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The choice is clear for asset managers and service providers: embrace the tokenization revolution and lead the next era of finance or risk being left behind. Those who act now will not only gain a first-mover advantage but also shape the future of the industry.

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Stellar's Ecosystem Surges Forward: Smart Contracts, Lightning Speed, and Real-World Impact in 2025

The Stellar blockchain ecosystem is experiencing remarkable momentum in 2025, with groundbreaking technical achievements and expanding real-world adoption that position it as a major player in the decentralized finance landscape. From lightning-fast transaction speeds to innovative smart contract capabilities, Stellar is demonstrating that blockchain technology can deliver both performance and practical utility.

Technical Breakthroughs Drive Performance

The Stellar Development Foundation's Q1 2025 quarterly report reveals impressive technical milestones that showcase the network's maturation. The platform now processes an astounding 5,000 transactions per second with remarkably fast 2.5-second block times, putting it among the fastest blockchain networks in operation today.

This performance leap isn't just about raw numbers—it represents Stellar's commitment to creating infrastructure that can handle real-world demand. Whether it's cross-border payments, asset tokenization, or decentralized applications, the network's enhanced capabilities provide the foundation for scalable blockchain solutions.

Smart Contracts Get Smarter with Soroban

One of the most significant developments has been the launch and continued evolution of Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform. The introduction of Contract Copilot represents a major advancement in developer experience, enabling faster and safer smart contract development through enhanced tooling and guidance.

This focus on developer experience is crucial for ecosystem growth. By lowering barriers to entry and improving the development process, Stellar is positioning itself to attract innovative projects and talented developers who might otherwise choose competing platforms.

New Token Standards Meet Market Needs

The Stellar Development Foundation has introduced new token standards developed specifically based on feedback from developers and institutional users. This responsive approach to platform development demonstrates Stellar's commitment to building technology that meets actual market needs rather than theoretical requirements.

These standards are particularly important as institutional adoption continues to grow, with organizations requiring robust, compliant, and flexible token frameworks for their blockchain initiatives.

Global USDC Integration Expands Utility

The integration of USDC across Stellar's global network represents a significant milestone for practical cryptocurrency adoption. Stablecoins like USDC provide the price stability necessary for everyday transactions and business operations, making them crucial for blockchain platforms seeking real-world utility.

This integration is particularly impactful in emerging markets, where access to stable digital currencies can provide financial services to underbanked populations and facilitate more efficient cross-border transactions.

Industry Events Build Community Momentum

The Stellar ecosystem's growing influence is evident in its presence at major industry events. The foundation's participation as a sponsor at Consensus 2025 in Toronto and Digital Assets Week in New York demonstrates its commitment to engaging with builders, investors, and institutional leaders across the blockchain space.

These events serve as crucial networking opportunities and platforms for showcasing innovative projects within the Stellar ecosystem. Recent Meridian events have highlighted creative projects like Skyhitz and HoneyCoin, illustrating the collaborative spirit and diverse applications being built on the platform.

Real-World Impact in Emerging Markets

Perhaps most importantly, Stellar's growth isn't just about technical metrics—it's about real-world impact. The platform's focus on emerging markets addresses genuine financial inclusion challenges, providing efficient payment rails and access to digital financial services where traditional banking infrastructure may be limited.

This practical approach to blockchain implementation sets Stellar apart from projects that focus primarily on speculative trading or theoretical use cases. By solving actual problems for real users, Stellar is building sustainable demand for its technology.

Looking Ahead: Enterprise-Grade Infrastructure

Stellar positions itself as offering enterprise-grade asset tokenization alongside its DeFi capabilities and payment infrastructure. This comprehensive approach makes it attractive to institutions looking for a single platform that can handle multiple blockchain use cases.

The combination of fast transactions, low costs, smart contract capabilities, and regulatory-conscious development creates a compelling value proposition for enterprises considering blockchain adoption.

The Road Forward

As 2025 progresses, Stellar's ecosystem appears well-positioned for continued growth. The technical infrastructure improvements, developer-focused enhancements, and real-world adoption initiatives create a strong foundation for expanding use cases and user adoption.

The blockchain industry has seen many projects promise revolutionary capabilities, but Stellar's focus on delivering measurable performance improvements and practical solutions suggests a mature approach to blockchain development. With transaction speeds that rival traditional payment systems and growing institutional adoption, Stellar is demonstrating that blockchain technology can move beyond experimental phases into mainstream utility.

For developers, institutions, and users looking for blockchain solutions that prioritize both performance and practical applicability, Stellar's 2025 developments represent significant progress toward a more accessible and useful decentralized financial ecosystem.

Source: The Dinarian ⚡ Claude AI

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Soroban Security Audit Bank: Raising the Standard for Smart Contract Security

The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) is deeply committed to helping ensure that the highest security standards are available for projects building on the Stellar network. Last year SDF launched the Soroban Security Audit Bank, an initiative to provide projects access to auditing experts and tooling that are proven to help prevent hacks by catching potential bugs, inefficiencies, and security flaws before contracts go live. Through the Soroban Security Audit Bank, we’re empowering teams building on Soroban with comprehensive security audits from leading audit firms, enhanced readiness support, and robust tooling, significantly elevating the ecosystem’s safety and efficiency.

Since launch, the Soroban Security Audit Bank has successfully conducted over 40 essential audits, deploying over $3 million to support security of the smart contracts on Stellar. Check it out!

 

Ecosystem Success Stories: How the Soroban Audit Bank Drives Security Forward

By making automated formal verification available to developers, in addition to allocating significant budget for securing many of the top DeFi protocols built on top of Stellar, SDF has established a new security standard in the Web3 ecosystem. Mooly Sagiv, Co-Founder of Certora
SDF has been a strong partner as we’ve worked with teams across the Stellar ecosystem. SDF’s Audit Bank initiative allows for a smooth and streamlined review process, and is a clear reflection of the Stellar ecosystem’s enhanced commitment to security. Robert Chen, CEO of OtterSec
 

Leading projects within the Soroban ecosystem have highlighted the impact of the Audit Bank

Finding a good auditor is difficult, expensive, and high-stakes. The Audit Bank streamlines the process and supports ecosystem projects with security review at critical growth milestones. Markus Paulson, Co-Founder of Script3
The audit firms we worked with deeply understood the full ecosystem and the underlying protocols used. Their expertise and the tools from the Audit Bank strengthened our security and supported user and investor trust. Esteban Iglesias Manríquez, Co-Founder of Palta.Labs

What's New in 2025: Enhanced Audit Support for Soroban Builders

Teams building financial protocols, high-dependency data services, high-traction dApps funded by the Stellar Community Fund are able to request an audit and will typically be matched with a reputable audit firm within two weeks. We recently restructured the program for this year to enhance audit efficiency and incentivize accountability, and rapid and complete vulnerability remediation:

  • Complimentary Initial Audit: Projects will need to contribute 5% of the audit cost upfront, but this co-payment amount is eligible for a full refund, provided that critical, high, and medium vulnerabilities identified are swiftly remediated within 20 business days of receiving the initial audit report (learn more).
  • Incentivized Security at Key Traction Milestones: Complimentary, extensive follow-up audits are available as projects achieve critical traction milestones (e.g., $10M and $100M TVL). These audits include deeper assessments such as formal verification or competitive audits, significantly boosting project security at pivotal stages.
  • Advanced Security Tooling: Projects can enhance their security self-serve through complimentary or discounted access to specialized tooling, which provide vulnerability detection and formal verification capabilities (see full list of available tooling). These tools are encouraged to capture ‘easy-to-spot’ issues prior to audit as well as a final check post-audit to increase the effectiveness and thoroughness of audits.
  • Enhanced Audit Readiness Support: Projects receive structured preparation support, including the implementation of best practices and security standards based on the STRIDE threat modeling framework. This ensures project teams are thoroughly prepared, optimizing audit efficiency and minimizing delays.

Get Started Today

If you're already funded through the Stellar Community Fund, meet the criteria and ready to secure your smart contracts, check your email for an invitation to submit an audit request–if you haven’t received one, contact [email protected].

If you haven't built on Stellar yet, we encourage you to start your journey with the Stellar Community Fund to become eligible for future security audits and ecosystem support. For any broader questions on the program, contact [email protected].

Also, we’re organizing an exciting series of workshops–join us for the kick-off on Soroban Security Best Practices on Friday, May 30, 2025 at 2 PM ET on @StellarOrg. Together, we're shaping a secure and resilient future for smart contracts on Stellar.

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