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đŸ’„An Elegant Approach to ConsensusđŸ’„
Stefan Thomas @justmoon CEO and founder of Coil, co-creator of Interledger, and former CTO of Ripple
December 16, 2022
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It’s the age-old debate between Proof of Work and Proof of Stake, brought back to the forefront of people’s minds by Ethereum's successful merge back in September.

The critiques of both are well documented. One side will point to the fact that Bitcoin consumes energy at a significant scale. Others will highlight Ethereum’s new realities when it comes to concentration of power. Post merge, Lido plus three of the largest exchanges control over 50% of staked ETH.

Neither solves for governance, evidenced by the fact that both Bitcoin and Ethereum manage governance off-chain.

In this piece, I’ll argue that there’s a more direct solution; one that holds advantages over Proof of Work and Proof of Stake in terms of energy use and governance controls.

What’s neat is that this solution is based on the already existing, informal process that underlies both Proof of Work and Proof of Stake—and any other consensus mechanism for that matter.

That’s because consensus is something that humans do naturally and intuitively all the time. We can formalize that process and automate some of the more tedious parts. This is how we get to a foundational form of consensus without a lot of extra steps.

Proof of Work: How we got here

Decentralized, anonymous ledgers all face the same challenge. In designing a system that allows anyone to participate, you need a way to decide between equally valid ledgers to ensure that everyone stays in agreement. The obvious answer is some kind of voting mechanism. But as with any fair and equitable voting mechanism, you need to prevent any single person or entity from having more votes than they should.

One way to frame this is that the problem we’re trying to solve is a form of digital democracy.

Proof of Work’s approach requires participants to contribute computing power or hashing to the system. We can think of miners "voting" with their computing power by choosing one of the valid blockchains and attempting to extend it. After all, you can’t fake computing power. And as the value of the system grows and competition for computing power intensifies, the cost of outvoting the rest of the system goes up along with it.

That’s how we achieve consensus anonymously—Proof of Work in a nutshell.

Of course, computational power is essentially a proxy for energy consumption, and the last thing the world needs at the moment is wasted energy. We can minimize waste by using stranded or surplus energy but there is no way around the fact that any computer doing proof-of-work could always be doing useful calculations instead.

The last point I’ll make here is on governance. In the early days of Bitcoin, some protocol changes were indeed voted on and decided by miners. But that approach came to a head during the debate around block size and scalability, what Coindesk, at the time, described as a “constitutional crisis.” In some contexts, miners’ incentives aren’t aligned with the rest of the network. In the context of block size for example, miners prefer smaller blocks to force users to pay them higher fees.

Naturally, the community didn’t take that lying down and turned to extra-protocol forms of governance as a response as well as hard forks. Eventually, this put enough pressure on miners such that a compromise was reached. The point is that Bitcoin isn't governed purely by proof-of-work. Important strategic decisions are made through a political process outside of the protocol and not simply by the majority of miners.

Given these limitations, there has always been interest in potential alternatives to Proof of Work.

Proof of Stake: The popular alternative

If we think about consensus mechanisms as forms of democracy, then Proof of Stake would be a plutocracy. You might call it Proof of Wealth.

Instead of computing power, votes in a Proof of Stake system are counted proportional to the number of tokens a person or entity stakes. Assuming tokens have been broadly distributed among many unaffiliated participants, decentralization is achieved without the energy needs of Proof of Work.

Just as you can’t fake computing power, you also can’t create tokens out of thin air. Sure, a well-capitalized organization could buy up tokens to increase their voting power but that’s by design. As a rule, Proof of Stake is a consensus mechanism typically dominated by aggregators of tokens such as exchanges or DeFi platforms.

When those staked tokens are also tied to governance of the ledger itself, it creates a feedback loop, which tends toward inequality and power concentration. The more tokens you have, the more votes you have. If you can turn that power into greater profits, you can turn those profits back into greater power. Keep doing this and you will eventually fully control the system.

This is less of an issue if the system is still in competition with other Layer 1s. We’re generally fine with corporations being governed by insiders such as shareholders or—in the case of co-ops—workers, as long as consumers still have a choice. If the company makes a bad product, you can buy a different one, and if they're an awful employer you can work someplace else. If an evil dictator takes over a corporation, it will lose customers and employees, a natural form of checks and balances.

Problems start when corporations become too entrenched and consumers lose that choice, which is when we typically see unchecked bad behavior. The same applies to a consensus system. While it still competes with other systems, those checks and balances continue to exist. But if it becomes universal, then unchecked concentration of power becomes everyone’s problem.

(It’s one reason why I’m so passionate about Interledger. With cross-blockchain interoperability, you get persistent competition between consensus systems, which serves as an additional layer of checks and balances. We’ll get into that more in a future post.)

Ethereum solves for this by taking governance off-chain, including, as they describe, both “social and technical processes.” But when power transitions from votes and well-defined rules within the system to more informal processes outside the system, it's difficult to guarantee transparency and fair representation. 

Just like Proof of Work, Proof of Stake defers the issue of governance.

Beyond questions around governance, a more common criticism highlights the circular logic inherent in any Proof of Stake system:

In order to know how many tokens each person has, you need to know the status of the current ledger.

In order to know the status of the current ledger, you need to know how the majority of the staked tokens has voted.

Any Proof of Stake system has this problem. Anyone who has access to the keys of previous validators could create an alternative ledger history that’s completely and equally valid. There are workarounds, such as creating regular ledger checkpoints, but this raises further questions—e.g. what is the next checkpoint, how are checkpoints determined, etc. An already nebulous off-chain governance system now must make even more arbitrary decisions.

Consequently, Proof of Stake requires myriad features that account for flaws and potential attack vectors that are inherent in its design. (Lyn Alden has a great writeup on this subject.)

There are potential regulatory hurdles as well. Hours after the Merge, SEC chief Gary Gensler told reporters that he thought Proof of Stake tokens looked like securities due to staking rewards.

All roads lead to Rome

So where does that leave us?

Proof of Work is simple, relatively reliable, and expends a ton of energy.

Proof of Stake is complex, logically awkward, and plutocratic.

Neither solves the question of governance.

Surely, there’s a better way.

In fact, there is—one that’s already working in the real world—but first, let’s take a step back and take a look at how we choose a consensus mechanism in the first place.

Think of it this way: Most people don’t consider the consensus mechanism itself when deciding who they want to be in consensus with. Maybe you heard about a cool gaming NFT project that you want to support. It happens to be on the Ethereum ledger, which is Proof of Stake.

Or maybe you’re looking for alternative assets as part of a diversified investment portfolio. You choose Bitcoin, which is Proof of Work. Or maybe you chose it because it’s the most popular and longest running.

In deciding what chain to participate in, you’ve made the decision based on your particular use case, needs, or target community.

In other words, the first choice you make isn’t about the consensus mechanism itself. Instead, it’s: Who do you want to be in consensus with?

Understanding consensus

Now that we’ve established this central choice that any participant needs to make, let’s take another step back.

What is consensus, anyway?

Here’s my definition: Consensus is a process of voluntary agreement.

In society, consensus establishes the ground rules for cooperation, enabling us to efficiently interact and transact with one another.

For example, I’m able to go to the grocery store to buy food and supplies because of consensus. There’s consensus on things like the monetary system, the legal system, languages, and certain social norms. If we can’t agree on how to make payment, how to settle disputes, or how to communicate, it’s going to be a tough time at the supermarket. Most likely, I won’t be able to buy my groceries and my grocer won’t be able to sell their products.

You and I might have different opinions on how our country should be run. We might be on the opposite sides of a political issue. But if my side loses the vote, I’ll still voluntarily agree to follow your rule so that we can collectively move forward. Despite our disagreements, we find a way to reach consensus such that progress can be made and peace maintained.

Part of it is because not coming to consensus comes with huge costs. Ideally, we’d like to avoid a revolution or civil war. Or in blockchain parlance, a fork.

The key point, again, is that consensus is voluntary. You can claim that you’re actually Napoleon—no one can stop you. But you won’t be in consensus with the rest of society, which will create friction and increase your social and economic interaction costs. Because of this, it’s rare in practice to run into someone who strays too far from the norms of social consensus. The benefits of consensus outweigh the cost of not being Napoleon for most people most of the time.

We want to agree on transactions that have occurred. We might disagree on the exact order of when those transactions came in—this could be simply due to being located at different distances on the globe from where a transaction originated. But we seek agreement anyway because any order—as long as it is universally accepted—allows us to transact.

Proof of Association: A more direct approach

Here’s what we’ve established so far:

First, Proof of Work, Proof of Stake, and so on are consensus systems designed to achieve voluntary agreement.

Second, before we even get to the "how" of consensus, we first need to choose who we want to be in consensus with, which, in turn, is based on who we want to interact and transact with.

Third, consensus is voluntary—people reach consensus because it serves as a foundation for transacting with each other.

Given that, what if I could just describe who I want to be in consensus with and have an algorithm that keeps me in sync with the people I’ve selected?

Spoiler alert: You can—which brings us to the concept behind Proof of Association.

Instinctively, if we knew who we want to be in consensus with, all we would need to do is look at their ledger and make sure that ours is the same. If it is, we’re in sync; we’re in consensus. It is a little bit more complicated in practice, but not much.

The first step is to write down a list of those people or entities you’d like to be in consensus with.

Once you write down that list, you hand it over to a software program that will scan the network and listen for people on your list. When enough of those people vote for a particular ledger—a quorum—consensus is achieved. (Honest nodes commit to never changing their vote.)

Since you’re writing your own list, you don’t need to worry about voting spam. If someone joins the ledger with 10,000 nodes that nobody cares about, they'll simply be ignored.

And because everyone participating—voluntarily, of course—is incentivized to maintain and improve consensus, the system will naturally evolve toward a more robust and decentralized structure. That could mean:

  • Adding more reliable people or entities to your list
  • Removing unreliable people or entities
  • Aligning your list to be similar to the lists of other participants
  • Changing your list toward having a more diverse set of validators across people, organizations, and geographical locations

As a result, such a system will naturally iterate to create ever more trustworthy states. Just like our real-life interactions, trust is developed and strengthened over time. Someone might have a lot of influence over the network because they are included in a lot of other people's lists, but if, for any reason, they break bad and lose the trust of other participants, they can be quickly dropped by the rest of the network in a way that isn't typically possible with Proof of Work or Proof of Stake.

Here, the age-old adage applies—it takes a lifetime to build a good reputation, but it can be lost in an instant. In that sense, the power of even the most important node is always limited. Just as a media outlet which consistently offers unreliable information might lose subscribers, so too will a bad validator. In a system based on voluntary association, there is always a choice.

What's more, if a validator has too much influence, others may proactively diversify their list even if that validator is perfectly honest and reliable. Over time, there is an incentive toward greater and greater decentralization. Or, more precisely, the level of decentralization that most participants think of as optimal.

It's important to note that we're only talking about a single consensus system so long as there is enough overlap between different lists. The overlap doesn't need to be perfect—in fact, the slight differences are what allows for improvements over time. Generally, participants don't want the network to split so everyone is incentivized to try to keep their lists relatively in sync through communication and discourse. If there are irreconcilable differences between groups, their overlap might decrease and they might eventually split into separate networks. This sounds bad, but is actually just a reflection of the preferences of the members of both groups choosing to separate from each other. Consensus is voluntary and can only be maintained as long as people want it to be.

In general, the network and community will ultimately determine for itself the best inclusions for their lists, which will continuously optimize over time—a form of fluid, iterative democracy. You have your chosen representatives in your list. If the times change, you can vote for new ones at any time. Others who transact with you may notice your choice and change their selection in turn.

Writing lists doesn’t use a lot of energy nor does it concentrate power.

And this isn’t just theory. A consensus system based on this process has been operating for the last 10 years—the XRP Ledger.

What’s cool is that over those 10 years, the network has evolved precisely in the ways I just described. Natural incentives mean that the XRP Ledger is consistently becoming more robust and decentralized.

Today, most participants follow 35 validators spanning geographies around the world, including individual participants, exchanges, universities, and companies building on the network, like my own company, Coil. No entity controls more than two validators, or 5.7% of the vote.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, the governance process is formal and voting happens in-protocol using the same consensus process that is used to confirm transactions.

Over the years, validators have successfully passed 45 amendments to improve the system, including new features such as multisign, escrow, and most recently, NFT support. New amendments are constantly being voted on.

But this is not just about XRP Ledger. If blockchains are to serve important functions in our society, advocates must have better answers to questions around energy usage and governance. Such were the weight of those questions when Ethereum made the bold step of actually switching their consensus system.

I hope that, ultimately, this will lead more people toward Proof of Association. It would not only solve the problems of energy consumption and concentration of power, but also serve as a simpler, more robust, and transparent method of governance for blockchains.

What started as a first principles observation of the consensus process becomes the mechanism itself. The beauty here is that in making the principles of consensus explicit, the consensus mechanism becomes obvious.

 

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3I/ATLAS — Secret Laws Of Gravity
Unlocking the future of space travel through the precise calculation of time and orbital trajectories.

"My preliminary analysis suggests two principal hypotheses regarding the reported phenomenon known as '3I/Atlas':

  1. A Coordinated Psychological Operation (PsyOp): The phenomenon may constitute a calculated effort to manipulate public sentiment or induce fear, potentially preceding a planned, large-scale deception (referred to informally as 'Project Bluebeam').

  2. A Highly Anomalous Object: Alternatively, the phenomenon represents an authentic, significant anomaly warranting serious scientific or intelligence scrutiny.

Regardless of its origin, '3I/Atlas' represents an historically noteworthy development that necessitates close, informed observation."

 

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Abstract Introduction:

New data is now showing something that arrived early and its changing colors as we previously predicted.

In orbital mechanics where trajectories are calculated centuries in advance with accurate precision measured in seconds.

A 11-minute deviation is not a rounding error.

It’s not a typo in the database.

It’s not close enough.

"It’s Physically impossible.”

Now The longest government shutdown in U.S. history still blocking NASA releases while the object executed its closest Fly-by approaches to Mars, The Sun and Venus at the moment of maximum observational blackout.

But orbital mechanics don’t care about “government shutdowns.”

Our observations Don’t Stop.

And the math doesn’t wait for “Press releases.”

The math says this:

“If 3I/ATLAS is natural, it should have lost about 5.5 billion tons of mass.”

It didn't.

1. The 5.5 Billion Ton Problem:

Let’s start with what everyone agrees on: 3I/ATLAS “now” arrived earlier than pure gravitational predictions would allow. Even though we have been mentioning this trajectory change over 2 Weeks ago (October 21st Article HERE) TRACKING 3I/ATLAS .

The scientific consensus explanation? “Natural outgassing” the "rocket effect." As water ice sublimates near the Sun, it creates thrust, like a slow-motion rocket engine powered by evaporating ice. Comets do this all the time. It’s normal. It’s natural. It’s explainable.

Except for ONE problem.

“The Physics Don’t Add Up!”

To generate enough thrust to arrive approximately “11 minutes early” would require shedding a staggering amount of mass.

Our calculations show “over 5.5 billion tons” of gas ejected over the perihelion passage.

Think about that for a moment.

That’s not a little puff of vapor.

That’s not some gas leaking from surface cracks.

That’s 15% of the object’s total estimated mass.

If 3I/ATLAS lost that much material naturally, it would create a debris cloud larger than Jupiter’s magnetosphere—visible to amateur telescopes from Earth. Absolutely impossible to miss in professional observations, and bright enough to be catalogued by every sky survey on the planet.

1.1 ~ The Plume Paradox:

Here’s where it gets interesting:

No such cloud has yet to be observed.

Not by Hubble. Not by JWST. Not by ground-based observatories. Not by the Mars orbiters that watched it pass at 30 million kilometers.

The brightness remained within “expected limits.” The coma showed stable & geometric shifting features. The tail structure now disappeared (but that’s another story). The main one is that: “The debris cloud that should exist — simply doesn’t.”

This isn't a minor discrepancy.

This is complete, mathematical failure of the natural comet hypothesis.

Part 2: The Industrial Signature:

So if natural sublimation didn't create the thrust, what did?

The answer is hidden in the chemistry—specifically, in what shouldn’t be there. “The Nickel Anomaly.” When multiple astronomers analyzed 3I/ATLAS’s spectral signature, they found something extraordinary: “nickel vapor” (Ni) at extreme distances from the Sun, where temperatures should be far too cold for metals to vaporize naturally.

Nickel doesn't just evaporate on its own at those temperatures.

It needs HELP.

And there’s only one known process—natural or industrial—that produces a volatile nickel-carbon compound at cold temperatures which we have said several times previously;

Nickel Tetracarbonyl: Ni(CO)₄

This is not a natural cosmic process.

This is an “industrial chemical pathway” used on EARTH for metal refinement!!!

It forms at 120°C and decomposes at 180°C allowing nickel to vaporize at temperatures where water ice would remain frozen solid.

It is LITERALLY, an industrial refrigerant for metal processing.

The presence of Ni(CO)₄ in the plume tells us two things:

  • The core is not ice — It’s a nickel-rich, engineered structure.
  • The process is not passive sublimation — it’s an active, controlled system.

The nickel vapor isn’t contamination.

It’s not a coincidence.

It’s Exhaust.

3. Secret Gravity (SOEG) Model:

This is where our research team proposes something NEW.

We call it The “Self-Optimizing Ejection Guidance (SOEG) Model”

A Brand New Scientifically defensible framework that explains the acceleration not as chaotic outgassing, but as “controlled propulsion.”

The SOEG Model (Project EE / 3IE)

The System:
‱ Volatile Reservoir — CO₂ ice + Nickel-rich metallic core.
‱ Solar Heating — Perihelion triggers sublimation at optimal moment.
‱ Magnetic Ionization — Internal magnetic field ionizes nickel vapor into plasma.
‱ Anisotropic Jets — Plasma channeled through focused nozzles. (not random cracks)
‱ Thrust Optimization — Maximum momentum transfer with minimal mass loss.

Unlike natural cometary outgassing—which is chaotic, omnidirectional, and wildly inefficient. The SOEG Model Fully Represents: (CONTROLLED, DIRECTIONAL, OPTIMIZED PROPULSION.)

It’s the engineering solution to interstellar navigation: Using a “magnetofluidic drive” that uses the Sun’s + Nearby Planets & Star energy to activate a propulsion system that was BUILT.

The secret is in the magnetic field. By ionizing the nickel-carbon vapor into a high-velocity plasma jet, the system achieves thrust efficiencies that natural sublimation could never match.

This isn’t science fiction. This is “magnetohydrodynamics” the same physics that powers experimental plasma thrusters being developed by NASA and ESA for deep-space missions.

The difference?

We’re building prototypes


Someone else already perfected it.

4. The Scientific Statistical Test:

Here’s what makes it undeniable.

Natural comets exhibit HIGH temporal variance in their acceleration parameters.

Technical terms like (A₁) and (A₂) that describe how thrust changes over time. Natural outgassing is messy, chaotic & unpredictable.

Our Prediction:

We formally predict that when sufficient post-perihelion data is published — expected from JUICE observations (data release February 2026) and ground-based telescopes through December 2025— 3I/ATLAS WILL show:

  • (A₂ parameter near zero) — phase-locked rotational coherence.
  • Temporal drift < 0.5σ — stability far beyond natural variance.
  • “Thrust vector alignment” with rotational axis — body-fixed engine signature.

If ALL 3 conditions are met.

The probability that 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet drops below 0.01% (a >4σ statistical rejection).

This is not speculation. This is a time-stamped, falsifiable prediction.

By February — March 2026, we will either be proven right or wrong.

The data doesn’t care about our theories. It only cares about what actually happens.

5. The Blue Hue đŸ””:

Now there’s one more piece of evidence—and it’s visible to the naked eye (well, through a telescope). “The Color Anomaly.”

Natural comets scatter sunlight off dust particles, producing a yellowish-red glow. At 1.36 AU from the Sun, 3I/ATLAS should have appeared reddish-orange from thermal emission.

Instead, observers noted something strange: “A distinct blue fluorescence” in the coma.

What Blue Light Means?

Blue emission in a comet’s coma comes from highly ionized species—primarily “CO” (carbon monoxide ions) and certain excited metallic vapors. This requires enormous, “FOCUSED” energy to achieve.

You don’t get this level of ionization from passive solar heating. You get it from ~ Active Plasma Generation. The blue hue is the visible proof of the SOEG engine operating at perihelion. It’s the "engine glow" of a magnetofluidic drive generating high-energy plasma to achieve maximum thrust efficiency.

Compare:
- Natural comets (Hale-Bopp, NEOWISE, 67P, Etc.): Usual Yellowish-red dust scattering.
- Expected for 3I/ATLAS at 1.36 AU: Reddish-orange thermal glow.
- Observed in 3I/ATLAS: Distinct “Blue” plasma fluorescence.

This isn't subtle.

This is the difference between reflected sunlight and an active thruster firing.

5.5 ~ Convergence of Evidence:

Let's put it all together.

The Self-Optimizing Ejection Guidance (SOEG) Model is not speculation. It’s not wild theorizing. It’s one of the only frameworks that coherently explains:

✅ The early arrival— non-gravitational acceleration without natural explanation.

✅ The missing 5.5-billion-ton debris cloud — controlled thrust with minimal mass loss.

✅ The Ni(CO)₄ industrial signature — engineered propulsion chemistry.

✅ The blue plasma glow — active ionization system visible during perihelion.

✅ The statistical impossibility — phase-locked stability beyond natural variance. (pending verification)

However each piece of evidence, standing alone, is anomalous but potentially explainable.

Together, they form an interlocking pattern that demands a technological origin.

But then there’s the Silence.

Venus conjunction: Still offline.

This is not incompetence.

This is recognition.

THEY know something we’re still calculating.

December 19, 2025: 3I/ATLAS reaches closest approach to Earth at 167 million miles.

“If the calculations are correct, the 5.5-billion-ton debris cloud should be impossible to miss. Every telescope on the planet will be watching.”

All of this new information scheduled to be released should definitely include the following: High-resolution spectroscopy, morphological analysis, particle environment data and MOST CRITICALLY the astrometric parameters that will confirm or refute our SOEG model’s predictions.

“If the A₂ parameter shows phase-locked stability, the SOEG model is confirmed.”

Conclusion:

The Numbers Don’t Lie. The orbital path was not set by gravity alone. The acceleration was not powered by ice. The chemistry was not natural. And the timing is not “coincidental.”

3I/ATLAS is a message written in orbital mechanics, plasma physics, and industrial chemistry—a message we have “74 days” left to fully decode.

The mathematics are clear.

The predictions are calculated.

We don't have to speculate about what it is.

“We just have to (wait) for the complete data packet to arrive.”

And when it does, one of two things will happen:

Either the natural hypothesis survives (unlikely, given the evidence). Or we confirm what the numbers have been screaming to us since October are TRUE.

“Something pushed it. Something controlled it. Something arrived exactly when it needed to.”

Or The A-parameters will lock.

The plasma signature will confirm.

The debris cloud will be absent.

And the institutional silence will make perfect sense.

Because you don’t announce a discovery like this through a press release.

You announce it through a “Calculated Strategy.”

Analogy Conclusion:

The orbital path was set by laws that were not known,
For where the starlight failed, a force was subtly sown.

No dust and ice, but Nickel in the plume’s blue gleam,
A pulse of hidden power, of controlled, forgotten dreams.

The A-Parameter locks, The true secret of the sphere,
The Simultaneous Truth arrives, When all the numbers are near.

— Earth Exists

Additional Reference & Data Source Links đŸ–‡ïž:

EARTH EXISTS Documentation:
- [Previous article. 35 Days of Silence — 3I/ATLAS]

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BlackRock Is Manipulating The Price Of Bitcoin👀

Blackrock possess a strategic depth that goes far beyond initial appearances. When the general market perceives selling and traders respond with emotion, these major players are often operating on a much more profound level. They adeptly identify and leverage every available mechanism to influence market dynamics. Their power isn't in direct control of the asset, but in understanding how to move the market without ever taking direct ownership.

What entity has become the most prominent corporate champion of Bitcoin ($BTC)?

It's the one with the massive treasury holdings, known as Microstrategy.

 

However, the major strategic challenge lies here: the size of their Bitcoin position is fundamentally linked to their external financing, typically in the form of debt.

This reliance on significant debt creates an inherent vulnerability—a dependence on creditors and shareholders. When an entity's position is highly leveraged, that dependence makes them susceptible to market manipulation or strategic pressure from external financial forces.

When a highly leveraged corporate holder of a significant asset (like $BTC) faces external financial stress, that pressure inevitably transfers to the asset itself.

Blackrock's goal isn't to induce a market crash, but rather to establish a dominant position and control.

Any substantial sale of major cryptocurrencies like $BTC or $ETH initiated by Blackrock, can be interpreted not as routine trading, but as a deliberate effort to manipulate market sentiment and pricing.

Blackrock is deploying a sophisticated combination of tactics: they simultaneously generate market volatility through strategic sales of the asset ($BTC) while accumulating shares in key corporate holders (the stock symbolized by $MSTR).

The deeper intent is to leverage this equity stake to direct the corporate strategy of the highly leveraged Bitcoin champion.

With a sufficiently large ownership percentage, this influence becomes highly effective. The resulting market power is therefore a function of both manipulating price movement and controlling corporate policy.

Is Microstrategy (the company represented by the $MSTR stock) vulnerable to this kind of pressure? The evidence suggests yes.

A substantial stake held by Blackrock grants them effective leverage to influence and manipulate the company itself.

When the company's shares experience a significant decline, the leadership is often compelled to take action, potentially buying back their own stock. This action is driven by the fact that falling share prices directly intensify financial and market pressure on the entire organization.

If the stock of Microstrategy continues a sustained decline, lenders will inevitably begin to re-evaluate and revise the terms of existing loans. This is a critical point of failure for the entire strategy.

The fundamental operational model of this corporate champion works like a closed loop:

  • It secures debt financing (taking loans) to acquire $BTC.

  • Alternatively, it issues new equity (selling shares) to acquire $BTC.

Crucially, the ongoing interest payments on this substantial debt are often managed by the mechanism of issuing even more shares, creating a continuous cycle of dilution and reliance on a high stock price.

A major consequence of rising leverage is the escalating cost of borrowing, requiring Microstrategy to source even larger amounts of capital.

The most straightforward solution—to issue and sell more stock—proved to be insufficient.

In fact, the situation worsened: the company’s recent attempt to raise funds through a stock offering did not fully sell out. This failure directly resulted in a significant liquidity shortfall, hamstringing Microstrategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations and continue its asset acquisition strategy.

And the ultimate shock came when Microstrategy—the very entity that vowed it would never liquidate its holdings—began to sell.

These weren't insignificant trades; the sales were valued at billions of dollars.

The key question now becomes: Does this sudden, massive reversal signal the imminent collapse of Microstrategy, or is it simply a necessary, albeit drastic, maneuver of 'business as usual' under extreme duress?

There appear to be two primary strategic objectives behind Blackrock's calculated moves:

  • Scenario A (Direct Dominance): Blackrock aims to neutralize its most prominent competitor (the corporate Bitcoin accumulator) in order to seize the title as the largest holder of $BTC.

  • Scenario B (Indirect Control): The institution’s goal is to establish absolute market control and influence, preferring to leverage Microstrategy to execute the most aggressive or politically difficult actions.

The outright financial destruction of Microstrategy is highly improbable. Such an action would trigger a severe market crash that could take years to fully repair.

The far more intelligent strategy is integration and control.

Under this model, Microstrategy remains operational, while Blackrock secretly dictates strategy. This allows Microstrategy to absorb the market blame for any necessary but controversial manipulation, a classic and often dirty tactic used by high-powered financial entities.

In the immediate future, the market will continue to exhibit strong reactions to the strategic maneuvers of Blackrock.

When they execute sales, it instantly captures headlines, is aggressively amplified by the media, and causes fearful retail traders ('weak hands') to panic and exit their positions.

Every decrease in price that results from this panic directly translates into a superior entry point for Blackrock. This clearly illustrates that the current market environment is driven purely by emotion, making it a survival game reserved only for those with the strongest resolve.

In the long run, the nature of $BTC will likely shift, moving away from its original ideals of being completely free and decentralized.

The vast majority of the available supply is projected to become highly concentrated within a small number of major corporations and investment funds.

Consequently, the price cycles will no longer be reliably tied to events like halvings or popular narratives. Instead, they will be driven primarily by government and central bank policy decisions, overarching macroeconomic conditions, and the internal political maneuverings of the world's most dominant funds and corporations.

Blackrock's goal is not to eliminate $BTC; instead, they are focused on constructing an elaborate system of control around the asset.

Microstrategy (the stock symbolized by $MSTR) remains a powerful tool, but it now operates under terms and directives that the company's leadership no longer fully dictates.

Since direct command over the decentralized asset is impossible, control is established through strategic influence over the largest corporate and fund custodians. Moving forward, Blackrock will be the primary entity determining the market's trajectory.

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A Request for NASA to Release Scientific Data on 3I/ATLAS

During my recent podcast interview with Joe Rogan (accessible here), I had mentioned the unfortunate circumstances, under which NASA had not released for four weeks the images collected by the HiRISE camera onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. These images were taken on October 2–3, 2025, when the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS passed within 30 million kilometers from Mars. The images are extremely valuable scientifically because they possess a spatial resolution of 30 kilometers per pixel, about 3 times better than the spatial resolution achieved in the best publicly available image from the Hubble Space Telescope, taken on July 21, 2025 (accessible here and analyzed here). Whereas the Hubble image was taken from an edge-on perspective since Earth and the Sun were separated by only ~10 degrees relative to distant 3I/ATLAS, the HiRISE image offers a sideways perspective, valuable in decoding the mass loss geometry and glow around as it approached the Sun.

The delay in the data release was argued to be the result of the government shutdown on October 1, 2025. Nevertheless, conspiracy theorists suggested that it may have to do with evidence for extraterrestrial intelligence in the HiRISE images. When asked about it, I suggested that the delay is probably not a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence but rather of terrestrial stupidity. We should not hold science hostage to the shutdown politics of the day. The scientific community would have greatly benefited from the dissemination of this time-sensitive data as astronomers plan follow-up observations in the coming months.

Joe Rogan suggested that I contact the interim NASA administrator, Sean Duffy. The following day, I corresponded with congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna regarding a related formal request from NASA. Following our exchange, Representative Luna wrote a brilliant letter to NASA’s acting administrator Duffy.

We all owe a debt of deep gratitude for the visionary support displayed by Representative Luna to frontier science through her letter, attached below.

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

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