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🌐 ISO 20022: to March and beyond – Deutsche Bank 🌐
January 08, 2023
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SWIFT plans to introduce a central Transaction Manager (TM) platform, which will be mandatory for all SWIFT users. This article provides an update on ISO 20022 payments standard migration so far...

The upcoming implementation of ISO 20022 in the high value payments (HVP) space is set to unlock a host of benefits for the cross-border payments industry – from improved compliance processes to the creation of innovative products and services. Deutsche Bank’s Joey Han explores how preparations are ramping up – and what we should expect as we transition into the ISO 20022 era

The origin of ISO 20022 dates back to 2004, when it was first recognised by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) as the global payment standard of the future. Eighteen years later, this future has nearly arrived. Once Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) and major payment market infrastructures (including T2, Fedwire/CHIPS and CHAPS) have migrated to the new standard over the next couple of years, ISO 20022 will apply to the entire spectrum of payments, including domestic, automated clearing house (ACH), real-time and high value cross-border payments.

The new standard is comprehensive in scope, flexible in nature and will act as a harmonised, global standard. This comes at a critical time for the industry, with calls for seamless and faster payments growing louder – and it is hoped that these attributes can provide the foundation for uplifted customer experience, streamlined compliance procedures, and a host of new, innovative services.

The decision to migrate HVP to ISO 20022 gave rise to a multi-year, industry-wide set of preparations – involving all key actors, from financial institutions and corporates, to clearing infrastructures and SWIFT.

Over the past few years, however, the proposed migration strate­gies have, for a variety of reasons, been somewhat of a moving target. Most recently, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced what is anticipated to be final change to its strategy, with the go-live date mov­ing from November 2022 to March 2023 to give participants additional time to complete their testing in a stable environment. In order to align with the ECB’s revised strategy – and to ensure the implementation is as straightforward as possible – both European Banking Authority (EBA) Clearing and SWIFT announced that they would also sync up their re­spective migrations. The Bank of England is scheduled to migrate in April 2023 (though a deadline extension is also being considered), followed by The Clearing House and The Federal Reserve Banks in November 2023 and March 2025 respectively.

The differences in migration timelines and scope, as well as the fact that some banks will migrate immediately, while others will wait, is introducing a host of challenges – and ultimately delaying the benefits the new, data-rich payment standard can bring. So, how are these challenges being addressed, and what are the main considerations going forward?

Full steam ahead in APAC

The migration of domestic, HVP systems in Asia Pacific (APAC) are al­ready well underway. In summer 2022, several ISO 20022 migrations took place across APAC. Paving the way for the rest of the world, Thailand’s RTGS system – known as Bank of Thailand Automated High-value Transfer Network (BAHTNET) – became one of the first payment infrastructures to introduce ISO 20022 this year, along with the Malaysian RTGS (RENTAS) and the Singaporean RTGS (MEPS+). Additionally, Australia will be going live in March 2023, with a co-existence period lasting until November 2024. New Zealand will also go live at the same time.

What can we learn from the early adoption of ISO 20022? Not all migrations are created equal. When moving to ISO 20022, banks operating in multiple markets have to navigate different geographical and regulatory conditions, as well as different technical approaches. Both a phased “like-for-like” approach and a “big-bang” approach will also impact the migration project, operations and end customer in different ways.

Also, while the rules for how to use ISO 20022 messages are based on the market practices outlined by High Value Payments Systems Plus (HVPS+) and are in line with Cross-Border Payments and Reporting Plus (CBPR+), they are still not the same in every market. Close attention is needed to spot and prepare for these subtle differences – or risk a higher volume of rejects and further issues in payments processing.

“The ISO 20022 migration is much more than just a new messaging format, it is the start of an entirely new era for payments”
Joey Han, Clearing Solutions Specialist, APAC, Institutional Cash Management at Deutsche Bank

Transaction management

Though several communities are already using ISO 20022, with the upcoming changes covering correspondent banking, the significance of the move to the new standard is much more far reaching. Cor­respondent banking largely relates to cross-border payments, but it also includes domestic payments between correspondents – or indirect participants – and their direct participants in the domestic HVP market infrastructures.

As part of its migration, SWIFT plans to introduce a central Transaction Manager (TM) platform, which will be mandatory for all SWIFT users. The TM will orchestrate transactions end-to-end, replacing the point-to-point messaging that is currently in use. The first interbank message in the payment chain will trigger the creation the Transaction Copy, which will then be updated with each subsequent message in line with strict data integrity rules. The improvements this will bring to end-to-end transaction integrity is one of the major drivers for the introduction of the platform. The technical deployment of the TM took place in November 2022, with no payment traffic expected until May 2023.

It will also play a key role in helping financial institutions navigate SWIFT’s co-existence phase (March 2023 to November 2025) – the period in which MT and ISO 20022 messages will remain interoperable – by removing the “weakest link” problem and mitigating the risk of data truncation. The TM will achieve this by maintaining a complete copy of the transaction data and reinstating any data that the intermediary agent could not include in the message type (MT) message. In line with the co-existence period – and the challenges it brings – many banks, such as Deutsche Bank, have promised to maintain their MT receiving capabilities throughout the entire co-existence period. 

A while longer to wait

Though the TM will be a great asset to the industry, it will not be the silver bullet from day one. Before the full benefits of the TM can be unlocked, there will be a short period where it will not process any bank traffic and the processing rules will not be applied. This means that when the CBPR+ messages go-live in March 2023, and the first financial institutions begin to process data-rich ISO 20022 payments, the TM rules will not be ap­plied to these transactions.

With TM functionality not expected to be offered until May 2023, end-to-end preservation of rich data will not be guaranteed on any mes­sages until then. Because of this, many financial institutions – including Deutsche Bank – are recommending that market participants avoid using the enriched data during the first few months of the migration phase to help reduce and mitigate any possibility of data truncation. This is in line with recommendations from the Payments Market Practice Group (PMPG).

From May 2023, the TM is scheduled to go through a three-stage, build-up approach to ensure platform stability and mitigate concentra­tion risk. Over the course of the build-up period, SWIFT will be closely monitoring the payment channels and watching for high levels of traffic. If, at any particular time, an extraordinarily high volume of messages was detected, SWIFT would be able to react and help reduce the number of payments being routed through the TM by introducing additional routing criteria. Under current plans, SWIFT aims to achieve this by broadening or shortening the unique end-to-end transaction reference (UETR) range, as required. For instance, if a UETR range is limited to 1A-10, this means that only transactions with a UETR that includes the last two characters from this range will be routed via the TM.

Translation and truncation

SWIFT’s in-flow translation will act as a central translation engine to sup­port banks already using ISO 20022, as well as those that continue to use MT messages. ISO 20022 messages will be translated to MT and delivered as multi-format (ISO 20022 with embedded translated MT) messages. By translating ISO 20022 messages to the MT equivalent and delivering both formats to the receiver, the tool will play a critical role in supporting the co-existence phase, as well as compliance processes. A non-ISO 20022 enabled institution, for example, will use the ISO 20022 format to perform the necessary compliance due diligence, and use the MT format for processing.

But that is not to say there won’t still be issues with truncation. If a non- ISO 20022 enabled institution is acting as an intermediary in a transaction, it will not be able to send on the rich ISO 2022 data it receives – and will instead send on a truncated MT message.

There are two main types of truncations: those that are indicated by a “+” in the body of the truncated messages (for ISO elements with direct MT equivalents), and those that aren’t (for ISO elements without direct MT equivalents). In the latter case, the elements unique to ISO will be mapped into the non-equivalent elements in fields 70 and 72. If the available space in these fields were filled, the elements of a lower translation priority would be dropped from the message.

The in-flow translation will, therefore, be particularly important during the first few months of the migration. With the TM not fully operational by until May 2023, the in-flow translation will provide a much-needed additional layer of protection. The translation report – that comes with each translated message – will identify instances of truncation, as well as provide detailed information on the translated MT. Where truncation is identified, CBPR+ has provided a standard, global template to be used for additional data requests.

Carry on testing

With the migration now in sight, what is left to do? Many of our clients have been reaching out to us asking about the possibilities of testing. In this respect, we have been as accommodating as possible regarding bilateral tests. And while it is clearly not feasible to test with every client, we have also taken steps to facilitate self-service activities.

For example, Deutsche Bank recently launched the DB Institutional Cash Management (ICM) Portal on SWIFT MyStandards. The portal aims to provide ICM usage guidelines (UGs) for pacs.008, pacs.009 and pacs.009COV, which are based on CBPR+ and enriched with Deutsche Bank annotations. These can be used as the basis for any testing activity on MyStandards.

As the deadline approaches, it is worth remembering the reason these efforts are being made. The ISO 20022 migration is much more than just a new messaging format, it is the start of an entirely new era for payments. It is a huge opportunity to fundamentally reassess and greatly improve existing business models and solutions. In doing so, it will help the payments community meet the changing needs of their clients – both now and in the future.

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Why the global financial system needs ISO 20022?

SWIFT: “Why the global financial system needs ISO 20022?â€đŸ˜¶â€đŸŒ«ïž

OFFICIAL ISO 20022 VIDEO CONFIRMS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN ISO MESSAGES AND DISTRIBUTED LEDGER TECHNOLOGY (DLT)Watch closely.👇

Source: Smqkedqg

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From Token Narratives ep. 66

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👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading
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,,The reason we are gathered here today is to go back to our roots, before all of the defi and cefi rugs and corrupt individuals attempted to take us away from the scented garden of trustlessness."

Simple message - you have failed, you are not the keepers of Ryoshi's vision.
In a recent post from @ShibainuCoin about Shibarium, we can read:
,,While we always respect anyone who chooses to use ...

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Pyth Network (PYTH) To Rally Higher? This Emerging Fractal Setup Saying Yes!

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

But while the short-term dip might look discouraging, PYTH’s chart is showing something far more interesting: a price structure that mirrors the exact same bullish breakout pattern that sent Skale (SKL) soaring by triple digits earlier this month.

PYTH Mirrors SKL’s Breakout Structure

A glance at SKL’s daily chart reveals a textbook falling wedge formation — a well-known bullish reversal pattern. Once SKL broke above the wedge and printed a higher high followed by a higher low, it flipped both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages into firm support. That technical shift triggered a 148% rally in just days.

PYTH appears to be tracing the same path.

Like SKL, PYTH has already broken out from its falling wedge and formed a higher high and higher low. It is now consolidating just beneath a critical confluence of resistance, with the 100-day MA at $0.1235 and the 200-day MA at $0.1481 — a setup eerily similar to SKL’s pre-breakout structure.

What’s Next for PYTH?

For the bullish fractal to fully play out, PYTH will need to close decisively above the $0.1235–$0.1481 zone, ideally on rising volume. A confirmed breakout could open the door to the first upside target of $0.21, representing roughly 78% potential gains from current levels.

However, confirmation is key. Until PYTH clears these moving average hurdles, it remains vulnerable to extended consolidation or even a false breakout. Still, the fractal similarity to SKL is hard to overlook — and if history repeats, PYTH bulls could be on the verge of a major move.

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Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎
👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

  • Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
  • Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
  • Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

  • Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
  • Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
  • Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

  • Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
  • Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
  • Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

  • Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
  • Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

  1. Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
  2. Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

  • Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
  • Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

  • Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
  • Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
  • Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
  • Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
  • Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

 

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications. 

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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