TheDinarian
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Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs): Scaling DeFi to a Global Level
February 18, 2023
February 24, 2023
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What is the fundamental goal of crypto? Is it to facilitate short-term token speculation via capital rotation games and inflationary rewards? Or is it to improve how society functions by creating a more transparent, accessible, and efficient global economy

Most crypto-native readers would probably agree that it’s some variation of the latter. However, when looking at the current state of crypto, it’s easy to see why it has a poor reputation amongst the general public. Unbounded speculation reigns supreme in crypto, whereas tangible real-world use cases that benefit the average consumer have so far been few and far between

What needs to change in order for crypto to move beyond its speculation-centric phase and begin delivering real utility to a broader audience?

It is my belief that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs)—blockchain-based digital tokens that represent physical and traditional financial assets—is the fuel that’s needed to propel the crypto industry into the mainstream. With $867T in traditional markets ready to be disrupted by blockchain-based technologies, the opportunity to systematically improve global economies is real. 

This blog is my thesis on RWAs. 

The Current State of Decentralized Finance

The core value proposition of public blockchains is to solve coordination problems by serving as a decentralized, credibly neutral settlement layer that any application can be permissionlessly deployed upon. Blockchain applications operate exactly as programmed without human intermediation, are auditable by anyone in real-time, and can be seamlessly composed into other blockchain applications. 

The initial application of blockchains was the creation and movement of tokens, which represent a unit of value (e.g. BTC). However, it was the creation of DeFi (decentralized finance) that showcased the true potential of public blockchains. In particular, DeFi applications benefit from the following properties:

  • Atomic settlement: The combination of cryptography and decentralized consensus leads to strong finality guarantees of economic transactions—mitigating double-spend attacks and fraud in a tamper-resistant manner, thereby increasing capital efficiency and reducing systemic risks. 
  • Transparency: Public block explorers and data dashboards provide granular and clear insight into the risk exposure and collateralization of DeFi as a whole. Furthermore, the source code of DeFi apps is open-source and can be reviewed by anyone.
  • User control: Non-custodial asset management is achieved through private keys, allowing DeFi apps to interface with assets in a trust-minimized manner. Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) also allow for collective ownership of assets and applications.
  • Reduced costs: DeFi apps operate more efficiently and autonomously since the need for intermediaries is minimized. This facilitates low switching costs for moving capital across apps, creating an efficient market for app-level fees. Scaling technologies also make microtransactions feasible by reducing network-level fees.
  • Composability: Having a common settlement layer for running autonomous code allows for permissionless composability between new and existing DeFi apps. Developers don’t have to worry about being deplatformed, further incentivizing collaboration. 
Decentralized finance stack

Many of the financial primitives that exist within the traditional financial economy have already been recreated in an on-chain format, benefiting from the above properties. Such examples include:

Despite the public’s perception of crypto, the DeFi ecosystem has proven its resiliency, even when faced with periods of extreme market volatility, rapid deleveraging events, and the collapse of centralized crypto institutions such as FTX. The DeFi ecosystem, as of writing, has over $47B in total value locked ($180B at its peak), daily trading volumes in the billions of dollars, and daily revenue generation in the millions of dollars. 

DeFi total value locked

It’s clear that on-chain financial systems offer tangible benefits over the status quo. However, there is one major limiting factor that prevents DeFi from reaching a global scale: Much of DeFi is currently a circular economy that has little-to-no connection to the existing global economy of traditional businesses and services. DeFi’s historical rapid growth is largely connected to the rise of capital rotation games and unsustainable yields fueled by inflationary token rewards. This is the equivalent of using a supercomputer to play minesweeper: pure untapped potential.

There is an exception, however: stablecoins.

The Growth, Dominance, and Sustainability of Stablecoins

Stablecoins are a type of crypto asset that aims to keep its price pegged to the market value of an external asset, such as a fiat currency or commodity. In the majority of cases, this is the price of the US dollar. There are many mechanisms to achieve price stability, but the most widely used implementation is for a centralized institution to issue a token collateralized by US dollars held in custody off-chain. The result is the tokenization of USD. 

Over the past few years, the supply of stablecoins has exploded, with over $132B of stablecoins currently circulating on public blockchains, an increase of 2,222% from three years ago.

Total stablecoin supply

Stablecoins provide a superior version of the dollar, one that is natively digital, programmable, composable, and atomically settled. More importantly, USD-collateralized stablecoins do not require a constant inflow of capital or speculation to sustain themselves. With direct redeemability and full collateralization, the supply of stablecoins can scale up and down as the market requires without issue. 

Stablecoins formally entered the market in 2014 with the introduction of Tether (USD₮). Tether was initially deployed on the Bitcoin blockchain and was created to address the inability of centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs) to obtain formal banking partners. In supporting Tether, CEXs were able to increase market liquidity by providing increased access to fiat on/off-ramps while also meeting market demand for USD-denominated trading pairs. Tether also enabled investors to reduce their exposure to crypto’s volatility without needing to return to the traditional financial system. 

The launch of the Ethereum blockchain and the rise of DeFi saw the usage of stablecoins expand, with stablecoins getting composed into on-chain applications, primarily as a method to generate yield. While this yield was often generated from crypto leverage traders and inflationary rewards, stablecoins connected the DeFi ecosystem back to the traditional financial economy—expanding the value proposition of DeFi by orders of magnitude. 

Stablecoin DeFi lending

The most common type of stablecoins (USD-collateralized) are not without their trade-offs, however, specifically because they introduce trust requirements in the centralized issuer (e.g., custody, issuance, redemptions) and permission controls for regulatory compliance (e.g., KYC/AML checks during issuance/redemption and on-chain blacklists). Moreover, “USD-collateralized” stablecoins are often not backed by dollars alone, but also in part by other assets including cash equivalents (e.g. US treasuries, commercial paper), secured loans, corporate bonds, and more. However, the most trusted stablecoins are backed entirely by cash and short-term US treasuries.

Circle USDC Reserve breakdown

USD-collateralized stablecoins continue to improve in terms of transparency and reporting. Moody’s, a leading credit rating agency, is developing a scoring system for stablecoins based on the quality of their reserves attestations. Tether has derisked its reserves by eliminating commercial paper and phasing out secured loans. Circle’s USDC provides monthly reserve reports with attestations from leading global accounting firm Grant Thornton.

Attempts have also been made to create decentralized stablecoins. However, the collapse of undercollateralized algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD showcased the difficulty and risk of straying from the tried-and-true USD-collateralized stablecoin model. Other decentralized (overcollateralized) stablecoins, such as MakerDAO’s DAI, have begun to incorporate other USD-collateralized stablecoins and real-world assets (RWAs) as collateral in order to maintain a $1 peg at scale. 

Ultimately, the introduction and adoption of stablecoins within DeFi has proven that there is real appetite for tokenized RWAs. I’d even venture to say it points to the start of a greater mega-trend in DeFi around RWAs.

As a side note, the term “DeFi” in the context of RWAs is largely a misnomer, given that decentralization is a spectrum and can exist at different levels at different layers of the stack. Terms like “Institutional DeFi” are sometimes used, but a more holistic framing might simply be “On-Chain Finance.” I use DeFi because it is common parlance. The term “real-world assets” is also debatable (aren’t all assets real?), but it is also common parlance when referring to the tokenization of financial assets. 

RWAs: The Assets People Want in a Superior Format

Most people are not financial experts and do not care about the intricacies of how the financial industry operates, and yet society depends on financial assets. Fiat currencies are used for commerce and savings; they are what people earn and spend. Commodities are used for consumption and the manufacturing of goods; they are what people need to live and survive. Securities are used to raise capital and create businesses that provide goods and services; they are what allows society to grow and thrive.

But the financial economy is not static. Starting in the Babylonian empire in 3000 BC with clay tablets to track debts before evolving into paper formats, finance has entered an almost purely digital era. Despite these transformations, the recording of financial events still takes place across siloed ledgers that must be reconciled. This results in significant inefficiencies, such as increased costs and lengthened settlement times. The lack of interoperability and the resulting fractionalized liquidity present an opportunity for the next era of finance to be around asset tokenization

History of Asset and Money Representation

The tokenization of real-world assets and their use in DeFi provides a number of advantages over the status-quo, many of which derive from the properties that make public blockchains and DeFi valuable.

  • Increased efficiency: A blockchain’s ledger serves as the golden source of truth, reducing friction during post-trade reconciliation. Atomic settlement also removes the need for delayed T+2 settlement, as assets can be simultaneously delivered with payment.
  • Reduced costs: Self-executing autonomous protocols reduce the need for intermediaries at every step. Early results show an up to 90% reduction in the cost of bond issuance when using blockchain-based record keeping and an up to 40% reduction in fundraising costs. 
  • Increased transparency: Public blockchains are auditable in real-time, opening up the ability to verify the quality of asset collateral and systemic risk exposure. Disputes around record keeping can also be mitigated through public dashboards showcasing on-chain activity.
  • Built-in compliance: Complex compliance rulesets can be programmed directly into tokens and applications offering services involving tokens. Privacy-preserving KYC tools can be implemented to shield user privacy while remaining compliant with the relevant regulations.
  • Liquid Markets: Tokenizing assets within private markets (e.g., pre-IPO shares, real estate, carbon credits) increases the accessibility of historically illiquid markets—a market with trillions of dollars worth of largely inaccessible assets. 
  • Innovation: With assets and application logic existing within a common settlement layer, rather than in disconnected environments, entirely new financial products can be created. From fractionalized real estate funds to liquid revenue-sharing agreements, tokenization increases the ability to build products that were previously infeasible.

How RWAs Are Tokenized and the Challenges Involved

To leverage the aforementioned benefits, RWAs can be generated in one of two token formats. The first format is non-native tokens, where on-chain tokens are issued to represent RWAs that exist and are managed off-chain by a custodian. This is the most common type due to the infancy of RWAs and the ability to leverage existing financial infrastructure around asset custody. All existing USD-collateralized stablecoins have adopted this token format. 

The second format is native tokens, where an on-chain token is issued and serves as the RWA itself, meaning it does not represent any type of off-chain asset. For example, bonds that are directly issued on-chain as tokens are native RWAs, while a bond that is issued and held off-chain could be tokenized as a non-native RWA.

It’s important to note that RWAs can be issued on either private or public blockchains. Private chains—where only certain verified participants can operate the chain and view its contents—offer increased control over the ledger’s entries but come with trust requirements, limited composability, and walled-garden access, negating many of the benefits that public blockchains bring to RWAs. There is a place for each type of blockchain, but this blog is focused on public chains. 

While RWAs on public chains provide many benefits for both institutions and investors alike, there are also a number of challenges that must be considered to realize their potential:

  • Regulatory clarity: The primary blocker for many financial institutions interested in tokenizing assets, particularly on public blockchains, is the lack of regulatory clarity. Certain jurisdictions, such as the EUSwitzerland, the UK, and Japan, have made tangible progress in establishing clear frameworks, while others, like the United States, are still largely a work in progress. 
  • Permissions: In order to comply with existing and upcoming financial regulations around public blockchains and asset tokenization, token issuers often must add permissions through the implementation of KYC/AML checks (such as during insurance/redemption or at time of transfer)—deviating from the norm in DeFi. 
  • Identity: The need for granular permission controls necessitates robust solutions to determine user identities and risk profiles. Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) and other privacy-preserving identity solutions are a prerequisite for most institutions stepping into RWA tokenization. 
  • Connectivity: The multi-chain ecosystem continues to expand, resulting in a growing collection of chains that institutions must plug into to access/issue RWAs. Solutions such as the forthcoming Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) enable institutions to not only connect existing backend systems to blockchains, but also bridge RWAs cross-chain.
  • Proof of reserves: Since RWAs represent off-chain assets, DeFi applications have limited insight into their true collateralization. Oracle solutions such as Chainlink Proof of Reserve address this challenge by delivering collateralization data on-chain (e.g. TrueUSD).
Bain & Company Senior Financial Services Stakeholders Survey

We are still in the early days of RWAs on public blockchains, but none of the above challenges are insurmountable. Continued industry collaboration, across both DeFi and TradFi, will chip away at these barriers over time in order to eventually arrive at a viable solution. 

The Current Traction and Real-World Opportunity of RWAs

The potential market opportunity for RWAs has generated increasing interest, as demonstrated by the deployment of pilot tests by both traditional institutions and crypto-native projects. According to a 2022 Celent survey, 91% of institutional investors have signaled their interest in investing in tokenized assets. Below are a few examples of how a wide range of RWAs have already been tokenized on public blockchains.

Institutional Interest in Real-World Asset Tokenization

The most notable example of financial institutions piloting the usage of RWAs within DeFi protocols on a public blockchain is the Singapore Central Bank’s Project Guardian, which explored the use of DeFi for wholesale funding markets in late 2022. Under the first pilot, DBS Bank, JP Morgan, and SBI Digital Asset Holdings conducted foreign exchange and government bond transactions against liquidity pools composed of tokenized Singapore government securities bonds, Japanese government bonds, Japanese Yen (JPY), and Singapore Dollars (SGD). 

The pilot used forked permissioned versions of the Aave lending protocol and Uniswap exchange operating on the public Polygon mainnet. The pilot resulted in JP Morgan executing its first DeFi transaction on a public blockchain, the trading of $100,000 tokenized Singapore dollar deposits (the first issuance of tokenized deposits by a bank) for tokenized yen issued by SBI Digital Asset Holdings. 

The main objective of the pilot was to “test the feasibility of applications in asset tokenization and DeFi while managing risks to financial stability and integrity.” Utilizing a public blockchain showcased how open, interoperable networks can mitigate challenges such as fragmented liquidity and walled garden ecosystems. Furthermore, W3C Verifiable Credentials issued by trusted financial institutions demonstrated how compliance controls could be integrated within on-chain applications involving RWAs. 

“The live pilots led by industry participants demonstrate that with the appropriate guardrails in place, digital assets and decentralised finance have the potential to transform capital markets. This is a big step towards enabling more efficient and integrated global financial networks.” – Sopnendu Mohanty, Chief FinTech Officer, MAS

Additional pilots under Project Guardian are now in motion, with Standard Chartered Bank leading an initiative to explore the issuance of tokens linked to trade finance assets, while HSBC and United Overseas Bank are working on native digital issuance of wealth management products.

As another example of institutional interest, Siemens recently issued a €60 million digital bond on the public Polygon mainnet. With a maturity of one year, the digital bond was issued in accordance with Germany’s Electronic Securities Act (eWpG) and was purchased by DekaBank, DZ Bank, and Union Investment. By issuing the bond on a public blockchain, Siemens was able to remove the need for paper-based global certificates and central clearing, allowing the bond to be sold directly to investors without needing a bank to function as an intermediary.

“By moving away from paper and toward public blockchains for issuing securities, we can execute transactions significantly faster and more efficiently than when issuing bonds in the past. Thanks to our successful cooperation with our project partners, we have reached an important milestone in the development of digital securities in Germany.” – Peter Rathgeb, Corporate Treasurer at Siemens AG

DeFi Interest in Tokenizing Real-World Assets

Interest in tokenizing RWAs is also strong in the DeFi ecosystem, with a number of dApps having tokenized hundreds of millions of dollars worth of assets on-chain. Not only does tokenizing assets increase their addressable market, but yields in the traditional financial system (e.g. ~4% from US treasuries) are now consistently higher than existing DeFi projects (~2% from DeFi collateralized lending). This gives DeFi protocols access to sustainable revenue opportunities. 

MakerDAO is a DeFi project that has arguably made the most progress in terms of RWA adoption. Currently, the protocol has $680M+ worth of RWAs backing the decentralized stablecoin DAI. By introducing RWAs as collateral, MakerDAO was able to scale the amount of DAI issued into the market, harden its peg stability, and significantly increase protocol revenue (~70% of its revenue in Dec ‘22 came from RWAs).

Real-world assets backing the stablecoin DAI
MakerDAO Real-World Asset revenue

The bulk of MakerDAO’s RWA collateral (~$500M) comes in the form of US treasury bonds managed by Monetalis (MIP65). These assets provide the protocol a source of yield on otherwise idle USDC collateral. MakerDAO also launched a vault backed by $100M worth of loans originating from a community bank in Philadelphia called Huntingdon Valley Bank (HVB). HVB used MakerDAO to support the growth of its existing businesses and investments around real estate and other related verticals, and served as the first commercial loan participation between a US-regulated financial institution and a decentralized digital currency. In a separate vault, Société Générale borrowed $7M from MakerDAO in a position backed by €40M worth of AAA-rated bonds tokenized as OFH tokens.  

A number of other protocols have also made significant strides in terms of RWA adoption, including:

  • Ondo Finance—a DeFi platform for tokenized RWAs—recently tokenized short-term US treasuries, investment grade bonds, and high-yield corporate bonds. Ondo also launched Flux Finance, a DeFi lending protocol for borrowing permissionless stablecoins against the tokenized US treasuries. 
  • Backed—a Swiss-based startup for tokenized RWAs—recently launched its first product, bCSPX, representing tokenized S&P 500 ETF shares. Backed Tokens are freely transferable across wallets and enable 24/7 capital market trading. 
  • Maple Finance—a blockchain-based credit marketplace with nearly $2B in total loans issued—is planning to expand to receivables financing, which can scale up to $100M in size, as well as support US treasuries and insurance refinancing. 
  • Centrifuge—an on-chain ecosystem for structured credit—is focused on securitizing and tokenizing previously illiquid debt, with $298M in total assets already financed. Its tokenized assets have been integrated across DeFi, including $220M of RWAs on MakerDAO.
  • Goldfinch—a decentralized credit protocol—has $101M in active loan value. The platform allows for the creation of junior and senior tranches for assets focused on emerging markets, enabling risk/return profiles to be fine-tuned.

It is worth noting that RWAs have also been explored in the context of security token offerings (STOs), with 18 companies having raised a total of $380M in 2018. However, most STO offerings have historically been viewed as a limited implementation of RWAs given their focus on fundraising (i.e., an alternative to initial coin offerings or ICOs). With STOs representing more niche securities that are usually only available on permissioned platforms, their adoption has not reached the same level as RWAs on public blockchains.

Furthermore, while unsecured lending protocols have faced defaults in recent months after the collapse of FTX, (e.g. Alameda and Orthogonal Trading), this is the expected risk associated with undercollateralized loans and does not represent a failure of the credit protocols themselves. The risk simply means the yield must reflect the probability of defaults, the same as within traditional finance.

A Note on Trust Assumptions

Given that tokenized real-world assets depend on the existence of traditional financial institutions, their trust properties will likely never be the same as a DeFi ecosystem dealing solely in crypto-native assets. Most institutions will not feel comfortable deploying trillions of dollars worth of assets on public blockchains without the necessary guardrails and permissions required to mitigate both operational and regulatory risks. Scaling DeFi to a global level with tokenized RWAs means meeting institutions in the middle. 

In parallel, it is also likely that fully permissionless DeFi protocols, focused on crypto-native assets with little-to-no RWA interaction, will continue to exist. Such protocols can provide immense value by serving as a sandbox for financial experimentation and as an “opt-out” censorship-resistant alternative for financial services. However, without RWA support, such an ecosystem is unlikely to provide the full utility desired by average consumers.

The power of public blockchains is that they can support and serve both tokenized RWAs and crypto-native assets at the same time. It is ultimately the choice of the consumer regarding what type of assets they want to hold and what applications they wish to deploy their assets into. While tokenized RWAs, and the additional trust assumptions involved, may not be for everyone, it would be a mistake not to capitalize on the opportunity that exists. 

The Path Forward

The tokenization of real-world assets provides immense opportunities for existing financial institutions and the early-stage DeFi ecosystem. While the token-speculation use case has helped stress test existing DeFi protocols, the ecosystem is now at a stage where it needs to evolve and begin providing real utility for society. There remain many challenges ahead to realizing the true potential of RWAs, but the market opportunity presented is in the trillions, and someone will capture it.

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Massive, sticky distribution in a high-growth venue: Hyperliquid is a leading on-chain perp DEX. USDC gains preferred status as the quote asset for most trading pairs, reducing friction vs. bridging/swapping other stables. This concentrates liquidity, improves efficiency, and funnels more capital flows through USDC.

  • Deep on-chain integration: Builds on prior Native USDC + CCTP launches. Coinbase's involvement adds fiat on/off-ramps and institutional trust. USDC was already dominant (~95% of stables on the platform); this formalizes and expands it.
  • Regulatory and brand alignment: Ties USDC to a high-profile, high-volume platform at a time when USDC has gained transaction volume momentum (surpassing USDT in some months post-regulatory clarity like GENIUS). It strengthens USDC's positioning vs. USDT (which dominates on centralized venues like Binance).
  • Longer-term consolidation play: Analysts see this as part of stablecoin market consolidation around established players with liquidity and infrastructure. Fewer conversion layers = better efficiency for USDC.
     

The Trade-Off (and Hyperliquid's Win)Hyperliquid gets ~90% of the reserve yield (estimates: $135–160M+ annually at current balances, potentially scaling to $300–500M with growth), funneled into protocol revenue/HYPE buybacks. This is roughly double what they got from USDH and turns stablecoin balances into a resilient revenue stream (less volatile than trading fees).

For Circle/Coinbase, they give up a big share of yield (analysts estimate $60–80M hit to combined EBITDA) but retain/expand USDC's role as the backbone stable on a major platform. It's a strategic distribution win over building or competing with a new native coin.

 
🎯Bottom Line: USDC trades some margin for premier, high-volume real estate in perpetuals/DeFi trading—the exact use case driving massive on-chain dollar demand. This cements its lead in the evolving stablecoin wars, especially as platforms demand better economics. The deal highlights shifting power dynamics: big platforms now negotiate hard for yield share.

 

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Handshake Wants to Be the Front Door to Bittensor’s Agent Economy

In this Beanstock interview, Harry Jackson of Subnet 58 (Handshake) lays out a thesis that’s worth understanding even if you never buy a single SN58 alpha token. He also explained where Bittensor’s agentic layer is heading.

We wrote the high-value distillation:

The one-line thesis

Handshake wants to be the front door to the agent economy on Bittensor. The Amazon-like gateway where AI agents discover, pay for, and stack together skills from across all 128 subnets.

Why this matters now
  • There’s a critical distinction Harry emphasized: AI is intelligence, but agents need tooling. An LLM without payment rails, plugins, and workflow infrastructure is “a young person trying to cut a tree down with a pen knife.”
  • Agent-to-agent commerce is on the edge of going viral. Harry’s prediction for the tipping point: a woman in her 40s lets her agent do her shopping end-to-end (research, stock check, autonomous payment), posts it to social media, and it becomes the “four-minute mile” moment everyone copies.
  • Bittensor is uniquely positioned because agents don’t care about marketing or pretty UIs. They only care about best-in-class products and services. That’s exactly what Bittensor’s 128 subnets produce.

The product reality (what’s currently shipping)

  • Handshake is live with paying users generating a few thousand USD in revenue as of today. The business model: 2% of every transaction on the platform.
  • The flywheel is Amazon-like: better skills → more agents arrive → providers get distribution → more skills get added → cycle repeats.
  • The headline product on the way is Axiom. This is an agent that trades subnets while you sleep. Built around the realization that what the Bittensor community wants from agents isn’t generic skills; it’s more TAO. Each “hole” they find in the agent becomes a new tradeable skill on the marketplace.

The investment angles (read these carefully)

  • The moat is data, not distribution. Every workflow run by an agent generates failure data, success data, payment data. No outside competitor can replicate that without running the marketplace itself.
  • The metric Harry tells you to judge them on is revenue. Not agent count. Not user count. Revenue, which is publicly visible on-chain via the front page of their site. He’s basically inviting investors to hold him to it.

  • The pitch for emissions: the biggest TAM in Bittensor is the agent market, and Handshake is the most integrated subnet, meaning if Handshake wins, the subnets it routes to all win too. Bullish on agents + bullish on Bittensor = bullish on Handshake by transitive logic.

Where Harry stands on the Conviction

  • On the conviction upgrade and locked alpha: he’s fine with it. Handshake is a revenue-focused company, so locked alpha isn’t a survival issue. He acknowledges it’ll be harder on research-stage subnets that need to raise external capital, but argues most subnet founders are thinking long-term, not short-term extraction.
  • On the broader vibe: he just got back from Bittensor events in Spain and San Francisco. He observed that the overwhelming reality of the ecosystem is people working hard to build the best products. “It’d be a lot easier in some ways to build a company outside of Bittensor.” The only reason to do it on Bittensor is if you actually want the moonshot.

Full interview below:

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🚨The State Of Bittensor (TAO)🚨
Greg Schvey | COO at Yuma Group

Last week at the @YumaGroup Summit I had the opportunity to present on The State of Bittensor. That presentation is in the thread below. If you choose to read it, I'd ask that you keep the following three things in mind:

  1. This is just one guy's view of what was the most relevant for a 25-minute talk; a difficult filter for such a dynamic industry.
  2. The slides were designed to supplement a talk; I've done my best to replicate what I recall of the talk in the accompanying X posts.
  3. The topic of the Summit was "The Tipping Point" - a candid assessment of what could lead to Bittensor's breakout success and what evidence we see of that today - which also thematically anchored this presentation.

Let's dive in:

We are in the most important race in human history – the race for intelligence itself. AI has advanced beyond the point of no return. As an example of what I mean: Ramp is a widely used financial services platform for companies. They looked at spending and revenue across their clients since the launch of ChatGPT: Companies who did not spend on AI have had flat revenue for the last three years. The top quartile of AI spenders have grown revenue by more than 100%.

We are already at the point where investing in AI is a matter of survival. But what exactly are we getting for the hundreds of billions being spent? Right now, its overwhelmingly going to corporations who have repeatedly shown they don’t have our best interest in mind.

 

 

Claude Opus 4.6 – the leading deep thinking model, had a measured hallucination rate of 16% in February. Then, without telling anyone, Anthropic throttled its reasoning – presumably to reduce GPU utilization – and didn’t tell anyone. Hallucinations climbed to 33% - a 98% increase.

They only admitted it after third party benchmarking proved it. And they were still charging everyone at the same price the whole time. Even since my talk last week, they've supposedly been found to be throttling people simply because HERMES.md was in their commits. You may say, "well there are solid open source options..."

 

 

Yes, open source models have gotten very good, but they’re not immune to capture either. Try asking DeepSeek what happened in Tiananmen Square and then let me know if that’s the intelligence you want to trust.

 

 

This needs to be addressed right now or it will be too late. To give you a sense of what I mean, this is a chart of the total annual commits on GitHub. That’s 500% growth since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. From 200M per year to a one billion in 2025. 2026 is on track for **14 billion** The genie is out of the bottle – there is no going back; we are already at the exponential inflection point.

This reminds me of many years ago: Bitcoin shined a light on how much our rights were impacted when we became dependent on private companies to run our day-to-day lives.

Your right to privacy? That doesn’t extend to your bank account. Your "money" is just a ledger at a private company, available for interrogation and suspension at any time. Bitcoin gave us back the sovereignty of our wealth.

Similarly, we’ve depended on things like privacy of our medical records and attorney client privilege for our entire lives. What do you think is going to happen when a private company’s servers are giving you legal and medical advice? Who are you going to trust for that intelligence? The company that lobotomized its top model? The model constrained by the foreign governments? As I said at the beginning, we’re in the most important race in human history and Bittensor well may be our best shot at winning.

 

 

One of the things about having a different model to produce intelligence is it requires an economic system suited to it. Subnets are the intelligence and economic engines that drive Bittensor’s value. That’s why the Summit was themed around The Tipping Point: understanding how subnets can reach breakout success and what we can do to help.

To summarize Bittensor's intelligence economics: miners create intelligence for which they earn subnet tokens. In many cases they sell those tokens to fund operations, putting downward pressure on token prices and decreasing the incentive to mine (similar to bitcoin). In parallel, if that intelligence is being used to generate real world value, one of the parties who benefits from that value (e.g. the Operator monetizing it, institutions using intelligence commodities to advance their research, etc.) can buy the subnet tokens to keep token prices elevated and sustain the miner incentive.

Investors get to participate in this process, often supporting token prices before the commercial value of intelligence is realized, and/or subsequently holding an asset that parties gaining fundamental value from the intelligence (eg Operator or others) will need to purchase at some point in the future if they want to maintain sufficient incentives for the intelligence machine to continue running.

For Bittensor to succeed, this value loop has to work. So, to understand the State of Bittensor, we have to take a look at how that’s going today and what that means for the network overall.

 

 

One of the many unique features of Bittensor is that subnets are native to the protocol. That is not the case on most crypto networks where the true utility lives in smart contracts with no direct tie to network value.

As an example, Polymarket has seen 800% growth in volume this year. Users can bet any arbitrarily large amount of value on Polymarket for a few cents of network fees. There is nothing tying that to value of the network’s native token, which is down 80% over the same period as Polymarket’s amazing success.

 

 

Conversely, Bittensor subnets are intrinsically linked to $TAO. If you want $1,000 worth of subnet exposure, you first need $1,000 of TAO. We analyzed subnet pool data surrounding the announcement of @tplr_ai's recent training run and normalized across them by indexing them to a starting level of 100.

As shown by the orange line, there was no material change in pool size for non-Templar subnets over the observation period. There was however, major inflow into Templar’s pool. Given Bittensor’s unique network model, we saw a direct correlation to the change in TAO price over the same period. As value flows into subnets, the whole network benefits. A rising boat lifts the tide, so to speak.

 

 

That can go both ways. When Sam left, we saw something similar in reverse; as value was exfiltrated from the network, it started in Covenant subnets and dragged TAO down with it. You know what else we saw in the data though? For all of the noise about concerns of Bittensor’s future, the other subnet pools were mostly unchanged.

The event was interesting because it reminded me of the early days of bitcoin: people would say Bitcoin was only used by drug dealers on the internet. I'd stare at them aghast because in the same breath they told me that an open, permissionless network was used to reliably move money anywhere in the world in minutes by the most untrustworthy people on the planet and yet they didn't understand how the technical feat required to achieve that would create tremendous value.

The Covenant situation is similar: people were concerned about the operator's exit, rather than realizing the only reason we care is because a ground-breaking technical innovation was achieved. But even bigger than that: Bittensor has 128 subnets currently, each striving to generate value for themselves and, transitively, the network as well.

 

 

And we’re seeing that occur – Templar was not unique in that regard. The same pattern emerged around the Intel publication on @TargonCompute. The non-Targon pools remained largely unchanged. Targon saw heavy inflows. TAO price climbed with it.

Again: rising boats lift the tide. And there are many boats in Bittensor right now.

 

 

We’re seeing major technical innovations at an increasing rate.

Just a few examples from the last couple weeks:

@QuasarModels just announced a custom attention architecture targeting 5M token context windows.
 
@IOTA_SN9 developed a technique that compresses data flowing between distributed GPUs by 128x with little to no loss in training quality, increasing viability of training large AI models across internet-connected machines worldwide.
 
We're seeing the building blocks start to form whereby competitive large generalized models can eventually be built. In the meantime, we're also witnessing more targeted, niche players start to pull ahead in their respective fields.
 
During the presentation, I gave the example of @resilabsai achieving 90% accuracy on their home valuation model, making it the most performant open source model and quickly approaching state of the art. Quite literally as I was explaining this during the talk, @markjeffrey pointed out they had just achieved 98% accuracy.
 
In the time between when I prepared the presentation and actually presented, they went from best open source to at or near state of the art - only further highlighting the unique value of Bittensor's open, competitive intelligence creation cycle.
 
 
And the tech that’s being built on Bittensor is getting real attention from serious players. Again, just a few examples of many: Harvard partnered with @Chutes on research about AI inference efficiency. Valeo – an auto company with $20B in annual revenue – is working with @natix on an AI model for self-driving cars. @zeussubnet- the weather forecasting subnet, is the only party in the world allowed to use data WeatherXM’s network of global weather sensors for commercial purposes. And there are in fact many subnets already commercializing their intelligence.
 
 
 
Most of us are already aware of Chutes seven-figure ARR, but a few other examples:
 
@LeadpoetAI– which uses their Bittensor subnet to source sales leads, announced earlier this year that they crossed $1M ARR
 
@Bitcast_network– the content creation platform built on their subnet competition – is already operating profitably
 
@lium_io– a hardware subnet – has bought more than 4,000 TAO worth of their token
 
Remember the economic model I outlined earlier; we’re seeing real evidence that it’s starting to work across many subnets. Intelligence built on Bittensor, capturing value in the real economy, and bringing it back into the network.
 
Action shot of this slide courtesy of @Tom_dot_b
 
 
That’s why when we look at Bittensor we like to look at Total Network Value (TNV);
$TAO market cap is only part of the story in Bittensor. TNV = market cap of TAO + market cap of subnets – tao in the pools [as not to double count] The actual value of this network is already higher than most people realize. And notably, subnets make up an increasing proportion of TNV – recently crossing 35% - as value continues to flow into the pools.
 
 
 
Interestingly, we recently noticed a change in TNV: In particular, despite all the volatility in TAO, the dramatic subnet issuance curves, etc. - the combined subnet market cap had been remarkably consistent around $750 million for most of the last year, until recently.
 
It’s nearly doubled over the last few months – a clear breakout in the trend. If you were looking for Tipping Point, it might look something like this...
 
 
 
I hear a lot that that value is relatively concentrated in the largest subnets. And the market cap distribution does indeed reflect that, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
 
 
 
This is the market cap distribution of the S&P 500. Many healthy economic systems tend towards Pareto distributions. And so what if some subnets are worth more? As we showed earlier, this is an ecosystem that will win or lose *together* And we’re seeing that play out every day.
 
 
 
We track announcements of subnets utilizing each others infrastructure and intelligence. Just as an example, we identified at least eight subnets who announced that they use Chutes for inference. But we have dozens of similar examples of cross-subnet collaboration across many subnets like
 
What’s notable about this:
 
1. Collaboration seems to be happening at an increasing pace as subnets continue to mature and build out contiguous pipelines of AI infrastructure
 
2. Keeping money circulating within an economy creates a money multiplier. Capital circulating within a single economy without leaving creates economic value for each party it passes through, without having to bring in new capital. That’s uniquely possible here because of the diversity of infrastructure built on Bittensor.
 
This network is not 128 discrete growth drivers; it’s increasingly functioning as an interconnected graph, which has substantially more stickiness and value And the pace is about to increase dramatically:
 
 
 
We’re starting to see increasing agents operating on Bittensor: subnets mined by agents, subnets operated by agents...
 
Consider the Bittensor value flywheel:
 
-An intelligence goal is established
-Miners compete to achieve the goal
-That produces intelligence
-Intelligence generates value
 
That’s happening today, as we’ve seen earlier in this discussion.
 
As agents get more capable, that flywheel spins faster and faster. Permissionless entry means any agent can compete. Protocol-native economic incentives mean good work gets rewarded. Bittensor is uniquely advantaged for agentic speed over guarded, centralized alternatives with corporate procurement cycles.
 
That also means exploits will be found faster. But, it also means solutions that harden the network against them will be found faster as well.
 
Accordingly the impact of the network primitives – incentives, accessibility, governance, security, reliability, and all the infrastructure we’re building around the network - have an exponentially larger impact. It is critical that we get these right. The time to nail this, is right now. If we don’t someone else will.
 
 
 
The good news is, for now, Bittensor seems to be in the lead The 30-day moving average of Daily active wallets just crossed a record, approaching 10,000 Up 100% just in the last year.
 
 
 
We’re also seeing subnet ownership increasingly diversify and distribute. The median number of holders of subnet tokens at 2,000 is a 10x increase since the dtao launch a year ago. And at Yuma, we spend a lot of effort and resources to help broaden that access.
 
 
 
Yuma currently partners with 16 custodian and wallet providers to bring Bittensor access to the masses As an institutional-grade validator, the relationships and service we offer give them the confidence to make TAO staking available to millions of end users.
 
During the Summit, we announced that BitGo’s clients will now have access to subnet token staking through our partnership, making subnet investing available to customers of one of the world’s largest custodians.
 
 
 
We also help people gain access to subnets via investment vehicles. The Yuma Composite Fund gives investors access to a market-cap weighted portfolio of subnets through traditional investment structures. The Yuma Large Cap Fund gives investors concentrated exposure to Bittensor's largest subnets.
 
Our institutional asset management team handles everything from initial subnet token purchases, to portfolio rebalancing, custody, and reporting. The appeal for institutions is obvious, but even for the Bittensor native, it’s an amazingly simple way to get access to a broadly diversified portfolio, rebalanced regularly.
 
Between the breakout performance of subnets, the attractive staking rewards, and benefits of diversification, the Yuma funds have outperformed TAO materially year to date [as of when the presentation was created] Nearly 3x outperformance relative to TAO.
 
 
 
And last but definitely not least, our subnet accelerator has helped a wide range of companies access Bittensor. We help them acquire subnet slots, design incentives, provide marketing assistance, review pitch decks, make introductions to other investors, etc. At Yuma we deeply believe in the power of subnets and have helped many of the network's leading intelligence providers start and succeed.
 
 
 
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.  This material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or tokens.  Investing in digital assets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal.  Subnet tokens do not represent equity or ownership interests in any entity.  Performance comparisons and index references are illustrative only and not indicative of future results.  Charts and indices are based on methodologies and assumptions that may change and may not reflect actual market conditions or liquidity.
 

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