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How banks and businesses can prep for the FedNow instant-payment system
July 04, 2023
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FedNow will be the first of its kind central bank instant payment system in the US and could revolutionize how businesses and consumers pay and receive money. But not everyone is prepared for it.

After a pilot program that lasted six months, the US Federal Reserve System plans to launch its FedNow real-time payment system in July. But many banks and businesses could be caught flatfooted when it launches.

The central bank’s payment and settlement rail is designed to increase liquidity, especially for small businesses and supply chain participants who can get paid instantly for goods and services. It also creates a new way for employees, especially gig and hourly-rate employees, to get paid more quickly and frequently — perhaps every day.

The new system will allow banks, businesses, and consumers to send and receive payments in about 10 seconds anytime, any day. As with other payment systems, there are fees associated with the service, and banks will have to decide who foots the bill — merchants, consumers, neither, or both.

"Banks aren't 24/7 in their operations today," said Debbie Buckland, a director analyst in financial services for Gartner Research. "So, they'll have to have procedures set up to accomodate that liquidity management that happens in the middle of the night. Becasue if you give your customers the ability to do their banking in the middle of the night, they're going to do it."

Initally, FedNow will only let banks receive payments; the ability to send payments — and for consumers to be able to identify themselves by phone number and email only, as Venmo now allows — is expected to come later.

"The send part takes a little more work," Buckland said. "You have to have a vehicle for customers — both consumers and businesses — to initiate a real-time payment. That means adding that functionality to their digital and mobile channels. You need to be able to upgrade your product or turn on that service."

For consumers, the process is far easier. Those who want an instantaneous way to make payments, whether it's for a retail product or a mortgage installment, will need to download an app once their financial services provider offers it. 

There are two primary differences between FedNow and traditional payment systems such as automated clearinghouse services (ACH) and wire transfers, such as Western Union or the Fed’s own Fedwire service. ACH transactions settle just once at the end of a business day, and they settle in batches — not individually. Wire transfers are faster, but charge higher user fees. Wires are also not used for multiple or traditional batch transactions, and they’re still not real time; they can take several minutes or several days for remittances or cross-border payments.

For consumers not familiar with the ACH payment system, it's the funds transfer system used when employees sign up for direct deposit, make eChecks payments or authorize automatic payments to be deducted from their banking accounts.

FedNow is not a replacement for existing ACH and wire networks, but an additional payment option when real-time payments and settlements are needed.

Existing payment systems will be challenged by FedNow’s efficiency, and while the impact will be significant, it’s not likely to supplant other systems, according to Aaron Press, research director for Worldwide Payment Strategies at IDC.

“Electronic payments are growing fast enough in general that, even if other systems lose share, they won’t necessarily stop growing,” Press said. “But, they’re not taking this standing still. Every other payment system [operator] is thinking about how to position against FedNow. Even the [Federal Reserve] is thinking about the impact of FedNow on its own Fedwire service.”

The new system also means banks that adopt it will have to adjust to a 24/7 world where merchants or consumers might want to transfer funds between different third-party accounts at odd hours of the day or night. It also means banks won’t have a full business day, as they do now, to go through know-your-customer,  anti-money laundering, and anti-fraud processes. Those processes will have to be automated for real-time discovery.

For many banks, 'a real shift'

“For a lot of banks, this is a real shift in operational thinking,” Press said. “The margin of error is significantly smaller. The time to do things manually is essentially gone. We’re hearing a lot from banks and vendors who offer automation that there’s an increasing demand for automating a lot of tasks and workflows to better handle real-time messages.”

From a corporate standpoint, the use of FedNow is not just about being able to pay faster; it can be about paying slower or determining the last possible moment a payment must go out. For businesses that pay millions of dollars day in and out, holding onto money until it must be paid can amount to earnings.

“If you have an invoice with advantageous terms to pay at a certain time, you want to submit at last possible moment,” Press said. “FedNow gives you a lot of control over when precisely you pay. If those same invoices are paid over ACH, there’s some uncertainty to that.”

Retail merchants and others who want to offer consumers an instant-payment option will have to work with their payment providers, such as FISFiservJack Henry and Q2 to ensure the point-of-sales (POS) system has the proper APIs and ensure their systems are properly connected.

The FedNow instant-payment system will use the new ISO 20022 global financial messaging standard, meaning banks will need to be sure they can submit messages in that format. Many banks may already have the ability to submit messages through ISO 20022, because FedNow is actually the second real-time payment system.

In 2017, a consortium of banks called The Clearing House launched the Realtime Payments network or TCH RTP. But the network failed to achieve wide adoption because smaller banks were wary of using a payment system backed by their larger competitors. However, TCH RTP does use the ISO 20022 standard.

At its core, FedNow serves as an interbank instant-payment infrastructure. Banks, credit unions, and other eligible institutions have accounts at the Federal Reserve that allow them to hold reserves. Banks pay each other by transferring reserves from the paying bank’s Fed account to the receiving bank’s Fed account using several interbank payment options. FedNow is a new addition to the suite of options to make such transfers.

Sam Aarons, co-founder and CTO of middleware payments provider Modern Treasury, said the payments industry is excited about the promise of FedNow. Modern Treasury provides the translation layer for corporate accounting systems to transfer funds over a network using API calls systems. Bank systems are sorely outdated, however, and still rely on technology from the 1970s and 1980s.

"That’s also why Modern Treasury is excited about FedNow, because it is going to force a lot of people into figuring out what is a modern technology stack for payments," Aarons said. "As I like to say, what is a business day if money can arrive and leave your bank account 24/7, 365 [days a year]? Are you going to have accountants stay up at midnight to close the books? You need to change the software for your company that’s looking at the precipice of that."

While integration with FedNow is one issue, moving payment systems to be real-time is the bigger problem, according to Aarons.

"Where we usually see the hiccups is in fraud checking and [Know Your Customer]," he said. "A lot of those systems throw up a red flag when there's a questionable transaction, and then you have a day and a human can look at this payment. When you’re trying to send out payments in 10 seconds, you have to automate that or make your decision quickly. 'Yes, I can send this out,' or 'No, I can’t send this out.'"

A gig worker’s dream

One advantage to using FedNow is that organizations who employ gig or hourly workers can pay them at the end of a shift because the money transfers instantaneously. Today, when a gig worker is paid, it’s through a credited system and the actual money doesn’t transfer from bank to merchant until the next day. Gig workers, however, will need a bank account to be paid, versus a payroll debit card as many use today.

The United States is a follower in rolling out a central bank-based instant payment system. Forty to 50 other countries have already implemented same-day payment systems — and their uptake was fast, quickly reaching nearly ubiquitous use.

For example, Brazil’s Central Bank launched the Pix instant payment system in 2020; within a year, it had reached more than 100 million users and today it serves more than 150 million people. That suggests FedNow will be quickly adopted across banking and business sectors.

There’s a good reason for the quick uptake. When businesses are making thousands of payments a day to distributors and suppliers, it behooves everyone to get their money faster. Like Brazil's Pix, FedNow will allow companies to pay vendors, contractors, or any business partner instantly. And it will enable better cash-flow management because funds are instantly available, allowing for faster reinvestment.

Because most US companies now use the ACH system to make and receive payments, they experience next-day clearing for batch transfers, or they pay extraordinarily high fees for faster wire transfers

"FedNow represents huge advances for the businesses of today that are moving money around," Aarons said. “FedNow is an opportunity to deliver a great consumer experience, but also one for banks as well. It’s a really good opportunity for the US to catch up with the rest of the world.

"I think there's going to be a big lift-off when FedNow launches, and the hope is to get to universal coverage that we have with ACH and wire," Aarons said.

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🔗https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/altcoin-season-index/

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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PYTH: We'll Always Have Coldplay

Welcome back to The Epicenter, where crypto chaos meets corporate cringe.

But surprisingly, crypto has not been the most chaotic corner of the internet as of late.

That honor goes to the startup Astronomer, whose CEO’s cheating scandal broke the web in a glorious meme-fueled media frenzy. The company’s damage control? Hiring Gwyneth Paltrow as a “temporary spokesperson.” Do we think they’re grasping at straws or setting a new standard for PR?

Meanwhile, the markets didn’t blink. BTC is still flexing near its all-time highs. Michael Saylor’s bringing a bitcoin-adjacent money-market product to Wall Street. A pharma company just earmarked $700M to stack BNB, and analysts are calling time of death on the four-year crypto cycle. It’s a steady boom now, kittens.

A few things that are also worth noting: Winklevoss vs. JPMorgan, Visa’s take on stablecoins, and Robinhood’s Euro drama that defies the chillness of eurosummer.

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Closing Thoughts

From meme-fueled PR stunts to Bitcoin-backed money-market funds, this week reminded us that markets move fast—and headlines move faster. With Wall Street automating itself, fintechs beefing with banks, and even your smartphone becoming a miner, anything is possible. Stay curious, stay cynical, and as always—stay sharp and stay liquid. We’ll see you back here in two weeks.

— The Epicenter, powered by Pyth Network

 

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The fintech revolution is reshaping the way we manage, invest, and move money, breaking down traditional barriers and empowering individuals worldwide. As financial technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, a select group of innovative companies are leading the charge by offering groundbreaking solutions that redefine banking, payments, and digital assets. Whether you’re a savvy investor, an industry professional, or simply curious about the future of finance, discovering these trailblazing fintech companies is essential to understanding today’s dynamic financial landscape.

 

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2. Blue layer - The Carbon project funding platform

Bluelayer allows Carbon project developers to take from feasibility studies to issuing credits, tracking inventory, and managing orders. Developers of reforestation, conservation, direct air capture, and other projects can also directly report to industry registries. 

👉 Carbon investing and tax credits are heavily incentivized but need transparent data. By focusing on the developers, Bluelayer can ensure the data, reporting, and credits lifecycle is all managed at the source. This is smart.

3. Akirolabs - Modern Procurement for enterprise

Akiro is a "strategic" procurement platform aiming to help enterprise customers identify risks, value drivers, and strategic levers before issuing an RFP. It aims to bring in multiple stakeholders for complex purchasing decisions at multinationals. 

👉 Procurement is a great wedge for multinational corporate transformation. Buying anything in an enterprise that uses large-scale ERPs is a nightmare of committees and spreadsheets. Turning an oil tanker-sized organization around is difficult, but the right suppliers can have a meaningful impact in the short term. That only works if you can buy from them. Getting people on the same page with a single platform is a great start.

4. NeoTax - Automated Tax R&D Credits

NeoTax allows companies to connect their engineering tools to calculate available tax advantages automatically. Once calculated, the tax fillings are clearly labeled with supporting evidence for the IRS.

👉 AWS and GCP log files and data are a goldmine. Last week, I covered Bilanc, which uses log files to figure out per-account unit economics. Now, we calculate R&D tax credits. The unlock here is LLM's ability to understand unstructured data. The hard part is understanding the moat, but time will tell.

In an era where technology and finance are increasingly intertwined, these four fintech companies stand out as catalysts for positive change. By driving progress in digital payments, asset management, lending, and decentralized finance, they are not only making financial services more accessible and efficient—they are also paving the way for a more inclusive and empowered global economy. Staying informed about their innovations can help you seize new opportunities and take part in the future of finance.

 

👀Things to know 👀

 

PayPal issued low guidance and warned of a “transition year.” The stock is down 8% in extended trading despite PayPal reporting a 9% growth in revenue and 23% EBITDA. Gross profit is down 4% YoY. PayPal's total revenues were $29Bn for the year

Adyen reported 22% revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 46% for the full year. Adyen's total revenues were $1.75bn for the full year. The margin was down from 55% the previous year, impacted by hiring ahead of growth.

🤔 PayPal’s Braintree (unbranded) is losing market share in the US, while Adyen is winning it. eCommerce is growing ~9 to 10% YoY, and PayPal’s transaction revenue grew by 6.7%. The higher interest rate environment meant interest on balances dragged up the total revenue figure. Their core business is losing market share. Adyen is outgrowing the market by ~12%.

🤔 The PayPal button (branded) is losing to SHOP Pay and Apple Pay. The branded experience from Apple and Shopify is delightful for users; it’s fast and helps with small details like delivery tracking. That experience translates to higher conversion (and more revenue) for merchants.

🤔 The lack of a single global platform hurts PayPal, but it helps Adyen. In the earnings call, the new CEO admitted their mix of platforms like Venmo, PayPal, and Braintree are holding them back. They aim to combine and simplify, but that’s easier said than done.

🤔 Making a single platform from PayPal, Venmo, and Braintree won’t be easy. There’s a graveyard of payment company CEOs who tried to make “one platform” from things they acquired years ago. It’s crucial if they’re going to grow that they get their innovation edge back. Adyen has one platform in every market.

🤔 PayPal’s UK and European acquiring business is a bright spot. The UK and EU delivered 20% of overall revenue, growing 11% YoY. Square and Toast don’t have market share here, while iZettle, which PayPal acquired in 2018, is a strong market player. Overall though, it’s yet another tech stack and business that’s not part of a single global platform.

The two banks provided accounts to UK front companies secretly owned by an Iranian petrochemicals company. PCC has used these entities to receive funds from Iranian entities in China, concealed with trustee agreements and nominee directors. 

🤔 This is the headline every bank CEO fears. Oof. Shares of both banks have been down since the news broke, but this will no doubt involve crisis calls, committees, appearing in front of the regulator, and, finally, some sort of fine.

🤔 The "risk-based approach" has been arbitraged. A UK company with relatively low annual revenue would look "low risk" at onboarding. One business the FT covered looked like a small company at a residential address to compliance staff. They'd likely apply branch-level controls instead of the enterprise-grade controls you'd see for a large corporation. 

🤔 Hiring more staff won't fix this problem; it's a mindset and technology challenge. In theory, all of the skill and technology that exists to manage risks with large corporate customers (in the transaction banking divisions) are available to the other parts of a bank. In practice, they're not. Most banks lack a single data set and the ability for compliance officers in one team to see data from another part of the org. Getting the basics right with data and tooling is incredibly hard and will involve a multi-year effort. 

🤔 These things are rarely the failure of an individual or department; the issue is systemic. While two banks are named in this headline, the issue is everywhere. Banks need more data and better data to train better AI and machine learning. That all needs to happen in real-time as a compliment to the human staff. Throwing bodies at this won't solve the visibility issue teams have.

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