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FedNow’s Future and What the Triple Clock Theory Says About It
July 17, 2023
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Four days from today, the Federal Reserve’s instant account-to-account payments rail will go live. FedNow’s launch on July 20 will bring the number of real-time rails in the U.S. to two. The first real-time rail to go live was RTP®, operated by The Clearing House, in 2017.

Judging by the barrage of press releases and PR pitches received by PYMNTS over the last several weeks, the launch of FedNow is to payments what the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2004 after an 86 year drought was to baseball: an historic milestone that was a long time in coming.

So, it seems, the race for instant payments in the U.S. is on.

In many ways, July 20 begins the countdown to ubiquitous instant account-to-account payments in the U.S. TCH with RTP® has been live for six years and counts 274 financial institutions and 65% of U.S. deposits connected to its rail as important milestones of its own. But as even TCH and its member banks will admit, traction around use cases has been scattered, the number of transactions low. TCH with RTP® hasn’t yet achieved the critical mass needed to ignite its payments platform. The introduction of FedNow creates competition for RTP® volume and potentially the real-time payments infrastructure for new use cases like merchant payments.

In addition to the U.S. Treasury, FedNow says that 56 “Early Adopters” are certified and ready to move money over its rails at launch. The profile of those early adopters leans heavily to small FIs — 41 of the 56 are FIs, many with profiles like 1st National Bank of Yuma, Buffalo Federal Bank and Consumers Cooperative Credit Union with assets of $550M, $174M and $2.8B respectively — even though four TCH founding members, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, US Bank and BNY Mellon, are also ready to roll on Thursday. There are fifteen technology providers like AdyenFiservFISJack HenryFinastra and ACI that banks and FinTechs can use to connect to the FedNow rails.

So, it seems, the race for instant payments in the U.S. is on.

Like any good competitive rivalry stimulated by a new entrant, the watercooler talk now is about how long it will take for either or both networks to reach the point where they support a large volume of transactions and use cases to drive those transactions and ignite real-time account-to-account payments in the U.S.

Knowing that answer — or even how to guess — will depend on the clock you’re using to time the race.

The Triple Clock Theory

Humans have been measuring time for more than five thousand years. It was 1500 BC when the Egyptians invented sundials and water clocks to, among other things, track the blocks of time between sunrise and sunset to better schedule the arrivals and departures of ships bringing goods into the country.

It was the Sumerians who created the base 60 numerical system in the 3rd millennium BC which would become the basis for timekeeping today: Hours were comprised of 60-minute intervals and minutes of 60 second intervals.  Mechanical clocks that followed in the mid-to-late 1200s were perfected over the subsequent three hundred years, making it possible for time to be measured systemically and consistently with precision everywhere in the world.

We measure time because there is a finite amount of it — in a day, in a week and over a lifetime. People use time as an organizing construct to manage their daily lives. Athletes count time because they want to beat their personal records. The amount of time that it takes for big things to happen makes news: whether it is how long it takes to capture escaped convicts or how long it might take for inflation to hit the Fed’s 2% target. People want to make the most of their time because it is the most precious asset they have. Wasting it is low on everyone’s list.

Counting time in the business world is how economists and business leaders measure productivity: the minutes, hours and days needed to complete a task, and the number of people required to deliver the expected outcome. Like people, businesses want to optimize how their workforce’s time is spent and are loathe to waste it, even though by some accounts we all waste 24 billion hours a year in unproductive meetings. At least we did until people could multitask under the table with mobile phones or when their cameras are off during Zoom calls.

But it turns out that businesses, themselves, have their own internal clocks — a measure of keeping time often set by how long they’ve been in the market, the maturity of the markets in which they operate, the number of competitors vying for market share and the tech they use to power, manage and measure their business performance. These internal clocks set the pace for how decisions are made and how effective businesses are in creating a market advantage by continually innovating the products and services that their customers value and want to use.

The Triple Clock Theory analysis helps companies anticipate relevant market dynamics to reset their internal clocks.

 

The Triple Clock Theory (TCT) is an original framework that my consulting colleagues and I have devised to help businesses understand the pace of their internal clocks so that they can better assess whether their clocks could be cleaned by rivals seen and unseen — pardon the pun. But more importantly, the TCT analysis uses data-driven analysis to help companies anticipate relevant market dynamics to reset their internal clocks to prevent that from happening.

TCT posits that an incumbent business clock operates at a slower speed than a new entrant clock when introducing a product or service into the same competitive market. The rationale is as obvious as it is simple: Incumbents have created the market, acquired customers, created barriers to entry and have the assets — and a running head start — to sustain and grow their lead. Once a big incumbent machine gets its gears in motion, its momentum carries it forward, at least in theory. Incumbents assume that their clocks don’t have to move as fast because they have a big lead — until, of course, they see faster-paced competitors nipping at their heels.

As newbies, challengers’ clocks must move rapidly because they face a different reality: They lack clients, market position and the deep pockets to lollygag around. New entrants typically use different tools to help their clocks operate at a faster speed and shape their competitive advantage. Those tools could be anything from a new business model, pricing framework, data or payments capabilities, or user experience. Sometimes powerful new entrants bring all of that wrapped around better and more agile tech that makes switching easy and eliminates friction that still exists in how business is done in that market. They are also leaner so they can move fast.

Then there is the third clock, the technology clock, which is one of the sources of market disruption or competitive opportunity for both incumbents and new entrants. The technology clock can either speed up or slow down their respective internal clocks. New, breakthrough tech can create a better, faster and cheaper way to deliver the same product or service — or spawn new challengers that use it to leapfrog existing players. Predicting who will gain the most from the influence of the technology clock on their business is not always obvious since the technology clock does not always advantage new entrants.

Generative AI and LLMs are the most recent example of this third technology clock, but there have been others over the years. Most interesting about the Gen AI clock is its ability to not only change the pace of business, but the fundamental ways in which business is done.

In a matter of a few short months, the intellectual value of its potential has been internalized by every business worldwide. Open-source models are eliminating the barriers to entry that often come along with accessing and integrating powerful tech into business.

Both are fast-tracking Gen AI’s own path to critical mass and ubiquity.

Watching the Real-Time Payments Clock

In 2017, it was the real-time payments technology clock that set out to disrupt how money moved between bank accounts in the U.S. and the rails that, until then, cleared and settled those transactions.

Fundamentally changing the speed for clearing and settling payments was the promise of the first new U.S. payments rail in 40 years, RTP®. The press release announcing the launch described the participation of its then twenty-five owner banks, the biggest of the big in the U.S., along with their expectations of introducing a host of new scenarios using real-time payments and new markets that would see it as a differentiating value proposition for their own products and services.

The stated goal then was to reach ubiquity by 2020 — meaning that every financial institution in the U.S. would be connected to RTP® rails and use it to innovate client-facing payments in those three years post-launch.

The internal clocks at both the Fed and TCH will run a lot faster now that there’s competition for real-time payments transactions.

Six years later, the U.S. remains a long way from ubiquity and adoption of account-to-account real-time payments even though 11 times more banks are members of the RTP® network today than at launch and nearly two-thirds of U.S. bank deposits are connected to it. Being connected means that those banks can move transactions over it — if they develop use cases around it and promote them.

Of course, adoption and use go together to a degree. It is hard to get substantial transaction use without widespread network adoption. But ubiquitous adoption doesn’t guarantee widespread transaction use, which requires use cases that banks market and customers buy.

Now, most people in and around the payments ecosystem say that the introduction of FedNow will move the U.S. more quickly to that real-time payments ubiquity. The CFPB’s desire to accelerate open banking in the U.S. will create more demand for real-time account-to-account payments and move more banks to connect to a real-time network. Merchants, who for decades have tried to find alternatives to card rails for accepting payments, may view FedNow as that alternative.

All of those dynamics will likely quicken the pace of the internal clocks at both the Fed and TCH now that there’s competition for real-time payments transactions. I don’t think its market entry necessarily gives FedNow an edge.

The FedNow Real-Time Payments Clock

In many ways, it makes the march of both rails to ignition — which requires ubiquitous adoptions and widespread use for transactions — more challenging.

For FedNow to scale, early adopters will have to see success — and see it quickly.

Igniting a new payments network requires volume and scale — and how quickly that happens is vital. Having early adopters connect is one thing, but having them transact is another, as the TCH experience shows. If that takes too long for whatever the reason, early adopters will lose interest — and the traction necessary to create the network effects that drive scale will slow. They will likely shift to other real-time payments alternatives.

The less obvious part of the FedNow challenge is the current lack of interoperability between FedNow and RTP®. Unlike the two ACH networks that are also operated by TCH and the Fed, there is currently no ability for a bank to originate a real-time payment on one rail and a bank not connected to that same rail to receive it. Also notable at the FedNow launch are the number of big banks that aren’t connected, at least not yet, but are part of the TCH RTP® scheme — including Bank of America, Citi, and PNC.

In the absence of interoperability, achieving real-time payments ubiquity in the U.S. will require that every bank in the U.S. — all 10,000 of them — be connected to both TCH and FedNow rails. Persuading banks to do that will require the availability of use cases that are compelling enough for consumers and corporates to integrate and support. That seems ambitious and even improbable, particularly since most banks haven’t adopted either network.

Achieving real-time payments ubiquity in the U.S. will require that every bank in the U.S. — all 10,000 of them — be connected to both TCH and FedNow rails.

More likely is that the big banks and technology partners connected to both will create that missing ubiquity by becoming the real-time payments orchestration layer for banks and other third parties. The decision they then face is how to route transactions.

Since pricing over the network is identical, those decisions will hinge on transaction limits, fraud and security protections, acceptance and the preference of their partners, whose real-time payments use cases today may already be satisfied by existing RTP® rails.

It will also rest with which rail can support important future use cases like Request for Payment, given its potential to ignite mainstream real-time payments use by consumers for bill pay — and in a timeframe that is relevant for end users. The consumer protections required of that use case remain a work in progress for FedNow.

That’s not to say that TCH and RTP® have a cake walk to critical mass and ubiquity, either.

The RTP® Real-Time Payments Clock

The lack of an effective RTP® ignition strategy at launch is why connectivity to two-thirds of bank deposits hasn’t turned into 100% connectivity, more transaction volume, and a more powerful set of use cases at scale. RTP®’s biggest competitor today isn’t FedNow, but Same-Day ACH and wires, both of which have ubiquity and deliver a faster payments outcome that banks know how to monetize. Push to debit transactions over card rails support instant payouts for B2C use cases like insurance claims and gaming payouts and check the instant payments box for those use cases using money mobility rails — and on a global scale.

TCH with RTP® and the Fed with FedNow may both think they can operate on a slow clock.

There’s also inertia on the part of corporates who haven’t yet invested in real-time payments integration because they aren’t sure that every bank account they want to send money can receive a real-time payment. Until they move their ERPs to the cloud, their batch-based ERP systems don’t allow them to post payments in real time either, muting their sense of urgency.

Larger corporates see its potential in solving for the nuisance “edge case payments” that are today mostly sent the old-fashioned way with checks but need the ubiquity problem solved first.  Banks, corporates and FinTechs could decide that the workaround for the instant ubiquity challenge is to offer choice — RTP® or FedNow will become one of several options, but not the only way to clear and settle good funds instantly.

Watching the Clock and Getting to Critical Mass

The FedNow launch on Thursday makes the U.S. unique in the world to have both a central bank and private sector instant account-to-account payments rails. The rationale for the introduction of FedNow was to create a redundant set of rails so FIs have a choice, much as they do when processing ACH transactions today.

In some ways, TCH with RTP® and the Fed with FedNow may both think they can operate on a slower clock –and for different reasons. They are owned and run by large incumbents with staying power and money. They have important relationships that they can leverage to drive volume and scale. But unless one of them can get to ubiquity quickly and banks develop and market use cases to move large volumes of transactions over these rails, both could stall.

That’s where the technology clock comes in — as well as the fast clock for smaller and more nimble rivals who may use technology to create something better, faster and cheaper.

As they say, only time will tell.

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The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

But while the short-term dip might look discouraging, PYTH’s chart is showing something far more interesting: a price structure that mirrors the exact same bullish breakout pattern that sent Skale (SKL) soaring by triple digits earlier this month.

PYTH Mirrors SKL’s Breakout Structure

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Like SKL, PYTH has already broken out from its falling wedge and formed a higher high and higher low. It is now consolidating just beneath a critical confluence of resistance, with the 100-day MA at $0.1235 and the 200-day MA at $0.1481 — a setup eerily similar to SKL’s pre-breakout structure.

What’s Next for PYTH?

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However, confirmation is key. Until PYTH clears these moving average hurdles, it remains vulnerable to extended consolidation or even a false breakout. Still, the fractal similarity to SKL is hard to overlook — and if history repeats, PYTH bulls could be on the verge of a major move.

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Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎
👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

  • Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
  • Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
  • Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

  • Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
  • Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
  • Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

  • Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
  • Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
  • Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

  • Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
  • Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

  1. Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
  2. Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

  • Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
  • Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

  • Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
  • Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
  • Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
  • Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
  • Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

 

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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