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Chris Larsen's Ripple Effect
December 01, 2023
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Chris Larsen, cofounder and executive chairman of Ripple, a cryptocurrency company, has the Midas touch when it comes to making money and giving consumers more autonomy over theirs. In the mid-’90s, Larsen cofounded E-Loan, an online mortgage company, the first to allow consumers to access their FICO scores for free — a tool used by many lenders to determine if a person qualifies for a credit card, a mortgage or another loan. A decade later, he cofounded Prosper Marketplace, the country’s first peer-to-peer lending platform.

And like other Bay Area tech moguls — think Marc BenioffMark ZuckerbergSergey Brin, to name a few — Larsen is investing some of that hard-earned money back into the community. He made local and national news when he funded hundreds of high-tech surveillance cameras scattered throughout the City to help fight crime. He has financed TV ads to recruit police officers; provided grants to merchant associations to enliven retail corridors; and with his wife, Lyna Lam, and the Rippleworks Foundation, contributed $25 million to San Francisco State University, his alma mater. And just last month, Larsen and Gap board member Bob Fisher helped launch a $4 million advertising campaign — It All Starts Here — to help boost San Francisco’s tarnished reputation.

Larsen was born in San Francisco to a father who was an aircraft mechanic at SFO and a mother who was a freelance illustrator. He spent most of his childhood in Cupertino until he moved back to the City to get his B.S. from SF State. After graduation, he worked for Chevron and later earned an M.B.A. from Stanford University.

Recently, I sat down with the mild-mannered Larsen at his Ripple offices in the FiDi. We talked about transforming global finance, climate change and his unwavering belief in his hometown.

Meet Chris Larsen.

Tell me about this company, Ripple. Sure. So, we’re using blockchain technology. It’s one of the core technologies of where the world is going. Essentially a second internet, but instead of an information internet, it’s an internet of value. We think that’s a critical component if you’re really going to have a globalized world that works well for everybody.

That makes sense. Obviously, the whole world’s connected through data. There’s some issues there, but it’s brought the world together. People communicate for free anywhere. But with money — you wire money to Europe or to the Philippines — it can take multiple days. It’s incredibly expensive, and access is still blocked for billions of people in the world. So you have an incomplete global infrastructure. ... We’re making global payments that can move in seconds instead of days with no failure rates and extremely low costs so everybody can participate.

What was the origin of Ripple? Well, I go back now over 10 years, which is pretty early in the crypto markets. There was a group of people way smarter than me [who], when bitcoin got launched — in ’09 [and] caught on by 2011 — were fascinated by it, but thought it was too wasteful. It was kind of a head scratcher on why it had to be designed in a way that used so much electricity [due to the energy-intensive process of verifying computerized transactions]. So they felt they could build a better bitcoin in a system that used de minimis amounts of energy. And that’s what they did. I joined that project — before it was a company — in 2012 and went from there.

The industry has changed a lot in the last decade, I’m sure. And we’ve certainly seen dramatic volatility in the market in recent years. It’s a wild thing for a lot of reasons. It’s actually the first time fintech is global. Blockchain is, again, kind of a second internet, but for value. It’s global, it’s everywhere. That introduces a lot more dynamism. And it’s also dealing with money and value. So I think anytime you have that, you’re going to get the usual cast of characters as we read about in the press every day. Crazy characters, crooked characters, but also people doing some really groundbreaking work that will make things like remittances, cross border payments, and really the entire global economy work more efficiently. And that’s good for everybody.

Lots of eyes are on the trial of former crypto-billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. What effect have his alleged crimes had on the industry? Oh, it was absolutely catastrophic. Not only because what he did was obviously wrong, but he was so political. He must have given $50 million, mostly to Democrats. And his mom [Barbara Fried] ran Mind [the] Gap [pro-Democratic super PAC]. So I think they were pretty skilled at politics. When it blew up, all these politicians that were in his corner had to almost overcorrect and back away. A number of bills would have given the U.S. market clarity, which is something the U.S. drastically needs because we’re really falling behind places like the UK, which has very clear, very pro-consumer, pro-innovation rules. Singapore ... Dubai ... same thing. Very pro-consumer, tough rules, but very clear rules. And they’re attracting all of the companies that should be right here.

So the U.S.’s lack of clarity, and then Sam’s screw-up, which then made that worse, has actually been really bad for San Francisco.

How so? Because San Francisco was actually the global blockchain capital of the world from the beginning through maybe five years ago. And it isn’t anymore. Coinbase was here just down the street. They’re not here anymore. So, I don’t know, we’re at a 30 percent vacancy rate [in the downtown area]? I think it would be half that. [Ripple is] growing. We have 15 offices around the world. We’ve doubled our London office in the last two years. That’s a shame. That should all be right here.

Let’s talk a little bit about AI because San Francisco is, for all intents and purposes, the AI capital of the world right now. How do we make sure AI doesn’t leave SF, similar to what happened with blockchain? I think it should be a lesson learned on what happened with blockchain. I love our leaders around here, but our leaders should have done more to fight for it. We can be pro-consumer, and we can embrace innovation, and that’s good for the state, it’s good for the City, it’s good for everybody. Instead of push[ing] it out to our competitors. So I hope with AI, people have gotten this.

Clearly, we need regulation, but it seems we need to regulate in a more creative and modern way than we did decades ago. Do you agree? That’s a great point. ... Regulation has got to be faster. It’s got to be more balanced ... embracing innovation, which always has an element of uncertainty. So you have to respond quickly. I think in the U.S. we have a particular challenge. We go to London or Singapore or Dubai, the advantage they have is the regulators, the capital market folks, and the innovators are all in the same city. So they all mix. And here we’ve got capital markets in New York generally, you’ve got regulation in D.C., and you’ve got innovation out here. And that doesn’t mix all that well. It’s too far, and the timelines are not in sync. That’s a real challenge here. So we’ve got to get more dialogue. It’d be nice to put fintech regulators, AI regulators, at Stanford or Berkeley or right here in the City.

Before Ripple, you cofounded E-Loan and Prosper Marketplace, all of which give consumers more agency over their own money and more transparency. Was that a mission of yours, or just a good business niche? When I was growing up, my dad was an aircraft mechanic at SFO. I just remember he was always really angry every time he had to go take out a home equity line or finance a car. I think he felt like he was taken advantage of. The motto of the finance industry, particularly pre-internet, is “in confusion there’s profit.” When you go to the car dealer, the car dealer is not telling you your credit score. … So what does that mean as far as price? That’s how they make their money. And that’s not right. So it is a little bit of “Schwabifying” because Charles Schwab was the first to introduce fair pricing before the internet. But I think with the internet you can do much more of that because you can show everything. You take out the commission person. Ripple’s a little bit different in that we’re enterprise, and we can actually have more impact by focusing on the technology, bringing it to existing platforms, and then that makes them more competitive and more effective. So it’s a bit of a tweak.

I’ve read about Ripple using blockchain to help poor populations, like farmers in Uganda, sell carbon credits at a fair price. Talk about how consumers benefit from this technology. The remittance flows on the planet are enormous. U.S. to Philippines, Saudi Arabia to Bangladesh, for example. Those are big flows, and those are generally people who are probably living paycheck to paycheck, if even that. So if you can have systems that allow prices to come down, have more access, that’s going to be a good thing for everybody. We like those kinds of things. You raise the farmer and the carbon. I like that you brought that one up. I think that is a real opportunity.

Farming could actually be a huge sink for carbon. The Global South farmers are subsistence, so wouldn’t it be awesome if [they] could change the way [they] work the soils, grab more carbon, and then if there’s a good effective market [with] transparency ... if [the carbon credits are] resold, they get a cut of the resale. That’s something you can do really well with blockchain technology — tokenizing carbon assets. We actually just launched something called Centigrade, which is a B Corp, a more benefit corporation. We did that with [green energy nonprofit] Rocky Mountain Institute to improve the voluntary carbon credit markets.

That’s actually happening now? Yeah. That’s a big goal for us. Climate’s a big focus that I work on personally, but also with the company. And there’s lots of ways we can use the technology to make that better. Same with sustainability credits, which I think will also be an emerging market. So not just carbon. This is actually happening to a small country called Niue. It’s a country of 1,200 people in the South Pacific, but they have an enormous ocean acreage that’s part of the country. The same with Palau, 20,000 people, but they have oceans the size of France. So these are huge opportunities to protect the oceans. But these are poor countries. They can’t just give up all their fishing rights because they’ll go broke, but maybe they can do sustainability credits, where now we put that on a blockchain, tokenize it, and then anybody in the world can buy a sustainability credit. That’s what Niue’s doing. It’s called ocean conservation commitments. And that’s potentially a great source of financing sustainability.

Aside from your business endeavors, you’re also very active in philanthropy and politically active in your hometown of San Francisco. Why is that important to you? In San Francisco, we just started going down the rabbit hole. We [were], I think probably like every San Franciscan, victims of the smash-and-grab problem. We live in Russian Hill right by the Lombard Steps, which was literally ground zero at one point. This was maybe seven years ago; [now president and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco] Alex Bastian used to work for [District Attorney] George Gascón, and they had done something creative with Union Square — the Union Square BID [Business Improvement District] — [putting] camera networks all around. They had smash and grabbers, a crew that was running in the stores and stealing … but the camera networks are effective. If you talk to the police, they’re really good at making cases. We talked to the DA, same thing. It’d be nice if we can extend that now to live access for the police. That’s been controversial, but they put a police officer on top of that building, they have access. I don’t really understand why that’s controversial. You could put AI tools in that would identify guns. That already works today.

So there’s a lot of things we can do. We like the camera network for public safety. We’ve got to do more with the police because we have a police crisis where you don’t have enough of them. That’s a nationwide problem, but it’s worse here in the City because of the very anti-police police commission, which has prevented tools from getting out there. ... So the morale is bad. Maybe only 20 percent of San Francisco cops live in the City anymore. A lot of them actually live out of state, believe it or not.

Out of state? Out of state. So they’re supposed to be able to get back in the City within four hours of an emergency. That’s just not going to happen. So you’ve got a real problem with public safety resources that’s very solvable, so that’s one big area. And then another area has been trying to help small business through having [Avenue] Greenlight, which is supporting the 34 merchant districts in the City, and then allowing small grants to go to those small businesses or to the district to do things like lighting or signage or cleaning things just to make the environment better for these small businesses [that] have been hanging on in some tough times. Although I think things are a lot better now.

San Francisco has an almost $14 billion annual budget, and you’re talking about privately funding cameras in neighborhoods, helping small businesses and our retail corridors. You have even paid for ads to recruit police officers. So, why is private philanthropy necessary when we have these kinds of resources in the City? It’s a great question. A $14 billion budget is a lot of money. I think the problem is it’s a lot of money, but it’s all tied up in this bureaucratic mess. To try to get cameras funded by the city, it’d probably be a five-year debate. And I think it would just get bogged down. Whereas private philanthropy — we probably have four and a half million dollars put into the camera networks — can deploy that quickly to the CBDs [Community Benefit Districts] or the BIDs. ... If we had to pay for license plate readers, we would do that. Again, another needlessly controversial area that’s super effective, especially since all the smash-and-grab crews are driving stolen cars with just-stolen plates. The number of stolen cars is just astronomical, and it’s mostly all being done to commit other crimes. And if you had license plate readers, you would tag them instantly. They’re avoiding any town that has license plate readers.

Any evidence that the cameras, Avenue Greenlight, grants and police recruitment ads are making a difference? Yeah, we talked to [SFPD] Chief [Bill Scott]. He says the cameras are just absolute game changers, so that’s great. We know that that’s working. On the police recruitment, it was the highest police academy numbers that we had in three years. Now part of that could have been a combination of wages going up, bonuses. The ads were meant for morale and for recruiting. So we might fire that up again. So I think that does work, and having [Avenue] Greenlight for sure. Actually, we’re super happy with that one because it’s relatively small grants, and they make the small businesses feel like they’re being helped. So we’ve got to get more of the bigger business community to help the smaller.

Despite some of the issues we’ve discussed, what do you think gives San Francisco its competitive advantage? There’s nothing like San Francisco, and you can’t replicate it. It’s such a mix of things. You’d never come up with anything like this place again. I love it. The weather, the food, the views. ... So we’ve got our problems, but it’s an awesome place. And my parents met in the City, too. They’re no longer with us, but working on the city stuff, I always feel like they’re happy about it.

I’ve heard people ask you, so I know what you’re going to say, but would you ever consider running for office? I’m just not wired for that.

So what’s next for Chris Larsen? Oh, well, geez. Getting older. There’s less tomorrows than yesterdays, as they say. I think we’re on the right path, but climate’s going to take many years. Climate’s actually really fun to work in.

I have two boys. I want to make sure that they’re growing up in a decent world, and it’s not on fire all the time. This is totally solvable too. But we’ve got to really go before there’s some tipping points. ... It’ll be one of the greatest wealth generators of all time.

Is there a certain philosophy or credo that you live by? I’m trying to tell my kids this, but we shouldn’t assume [that] the way the world is was somehow designed by experts. So we shouldn’t be afraid to challenge stuff.

This interview has been condensed for length and edited for clarity.

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Pyth Network (PYTH) To Rally Higher? This Emerging Fractal Setup Saying Yes!

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

But while the short-term dip might look discouraging, PYTH’s chart is showing something far more interesting: a price structure that mirrors the exact same bullish breakout pattern that sent Skale (SKL) soaring by triple digits earlier this month.

PYTH Mirrors SKL’s Breakout Structure

A glance at SKL’s daily chart reveals a textbook falling wedge formation — a well-known bullish reversal pattern. Once SKL broke above the wedge and printed a higher high followed by a higher low, it flipped both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages into firm support. That technical shift triggered a 148% rally in just days.

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What’s Next for PYTH?

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Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎
👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

  • Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
  • Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
  • Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

  • Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
  • Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
  • Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

  • Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
  • Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
  • Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

  • Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
  • Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

  1. Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
  2. Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

  • Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
  • Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

  • Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
  • Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
  • Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
  • Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
  • Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

 

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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