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Standards and interoperability: The future of the global financial system
April 14, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • Introduction
  • The call for standards
  • Defining standards
  • A comprehensive overview of current standards on digital assets
  • Lessons learned from standard-setting efforts
  • Establishing standards
  • Key themes for a CBDC framework
  • Conclusion

Abstract

Over the past few years, the global financial landscape has undergone a significant transformation marked by the emergence and integration of digital assets. Looking ahead, the global financial terrain is set to include a spectrum of both sovereign and nonsovereign digital currencies and both centralized and decentralized networks. This future brings the promise of enhanced efficiency, inclusion, transparency, and choice to global payments. To fulfill this promise, the international community must develop interoperability standards that prioritize a fast, highly scalable, and resilient architecture. The flexibility of this architecture to adapt configurability based on policy and economic considerations is critical to its success.

This working paper is a foundational step toward a broader, global dialogue about digital asset standards. The Digital Dollar Project and the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center hosted a global convening titled “Exploring Central Bank Digital Currency: Evaluating Challenges and Developing International Standards” in November 2023. A version of this paper was released as a working paper to level set the attendees of the conference and provide a call to engage the public and the private sector in standard-setting efforts. This paper was further developed based on feedback from the conference and outreach afterward. The  paper now reflects what we learned from our convening and incorporates the most recent developments in standard-setting efforts globally. The rapid growth of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) worldwide underscores the importance of aligning approaches to their development, adoption, and implementation across technical, regulatory, and governance levels. Today, there is a patchwork of first steps undertaken by both public-and private-sector entities, aimed at achieving different objectives. These efforts have focused on frameworks, guiding principles, and, in some cases, the development of standards for digital assets broadly, as described below. Some are CBDC-specific and others have general applicability in the payments sector. As governments and stakeholders collaborate to establish consistent benchmarks for CBDC development, it’s crucial to identify, organize, and align standard-setting endeavors. This process involves assessing existing efforts to pinpoint gaps and create a foundation for international standards that remain open and flexible for future development and innovation. Through this paper, we show the crucial element of interoperability, which is needed for the furtherance of standards on CBDCs and digital assets. We attempt to build the pressing themes around which standards will have to be addressed through existing and new efforts.

Introduction

In recent years, the global financial landscape has witnessed a profound transformation characterized by the accelerated rise and integration of digital assets. As a subset of these assets, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have captivated the interest of countries worldwide.1 The CBDC landscape has rapidly evolved with 130 countries, representing 98 percent of the global economy, actively researching and, in some cases, deploying CBDCs. A recent survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) revealed that the number of central banks likely to issue a CBDC within the next three years has grown in the past year from 15 percent to 18 percent for retail CBDCs (rCBDC) and from 8 percent to 15 percent for wholesale CBDCs (wCBDC).2

CBDCs, in their promise and potential, are emblematic of a broader shift—a movement toward a more efficient, frictionless digital infrastructure, shaping the future of international trade, cross-border payments, and global financial integration. However, with transformative potential comes inherent complexity. As fiat currencies become more intertwined with technology there are significant implications for privacy, human rights, cybersecurity, digital financial inclusion, and the movement of money across borders for international trade, aid, investment, and other payments. If designed without a common framework of standards and collaboration, a shortsighted and fragmented approach to CBDC development could lead to the emergence of walled gardens.

At the core of establishing standards lies the concept of interoperability—the ability for diverse systems to interact seamlessly and reduce friction. In this context, interoperability extends beyond technical objectives alone; it requires a broader framework including regulatory and governance standards, paving the way for streamlined cross-border transactions, reduced operational friction, and bolstered trust among participating entities. While not a panacea, technical, regulatory, and governance benchmarks are instrumental in navigating the complexities of the international payments systems. In order to achieve interoperability, CBDC exploration should prioritize a thorough discussion on establishing technical, regulatory, and governance standards. (See Annex 1 for definitions relevant to this discussion.)

This paper is intended as a catalyst to stimulate a broader, global dialogue about CBDC standards. It takes stock of existing activities, begins to define how these efforts may be coordinated and aggregated into a set of globally accepted best practices, and offers a baseline for addressing gaps or deficiencies in defining best practices.

The call for standards

CBDCs are a digital form of a country’s national currency, issued and backed by the country’s central bank. They come in two forms: retail CBDCs (rCBDC), accessible to individual consumers and usable for everyday purchases and peer-to-peer payments, and wholesale CBDCs (wCBDC), utilized by financial institutions or other major entities for interbank settlements and large financial transactions. The motivations behind rCBDCs and wCBDCs are distinct. The deployment of rCBDCs is usually motivated by financial inclusion, payment efficiency, privacy, and safety. Interest in wCBDCs is aimed at addressing cross-border friction to improve international payments—including limited operating hours, long transaction chains, restrictions on legacy technology platforms, data fragmentation, high costs, complex funding, and compliance issues.3

Ultimately, rCBDCs and wCBDCs would operate in conjunction with each other to achieve both the domestic and cross-border needs of a country.4 Therefore, the deployment of domestic CBDCs must not be considered in isolation or the result will be walled gardens that stand apart from global commerce and economic trends. Creating a CBDC in a silo is unlikely to achieve the desired outcomes in the short or long term, as it will replicate the friction of the existing payments systems. CBDCs’ potential to provide a simpler and more efficient way to move money can only be realized as long as the CBDCs can interoperate with one another.

If deployed, a CBDC must be able to operate across various transactions, institutions, and users. Many CBDC initiatives and explorations recognize the complex and interconnected ecosystem in which financial activity takes place and the interdependencies of the different participants in transaction settlements. By agreeing on standards upfront—which is by no means a simple task—CBDCs can hopefully escape some of the growing pains that we have seen with the development of new financial technology (such as automated teller machines that could only be used by customers of a specific bank) or new digital technology (such as the challenges posed by the early years of closed-loop email).

Concentrating on developing and implementing clear and accessible global standards can enable greater industry collaboration and competitiveness through interoperability, transferability, consistency, and safety across various industries and economies. With this clarity, countries can direct their efforts toward aligning and promoting key principles such as privacy, free enterprise, the rule of law, and economic liberty within the global financial landscape.5

Defining standards

At the heart of this paper is the effort to promote interoperability in payments systems and prevent the creation of walled gardens. We therefore define standards as the technical, regulatory, and governance benchmarks needed to achieve interoperable systems in the long run. It is crucial to recognize that standards do not emerge arbitrarily; instead, they evolve from fundamental principles, embodying intentional consideration and consensus.

Standards specific to CBDCs are not unchanging; they must reflect and be responsive to technological development, market shifts, and experience. Standards are established by technical and governance bodies, often made up of diverse stakeholders, and reflect a consistent floor for pragmatic implementation across jurisdictions. Therefore, they must have built-in flexibility to adjust to changing circumstances across a variety of market structures.

Our use of a narrow definition of standards as a means to achieve interoperable payments systems helps navigate the complex technical, governance, and regulatory environment. In the following section, we catalog existing standards for digital assets and the institutions responsible for setting them.

A comprehensive overview of current standards on digital assets 

 

Methodology

 

Due to their rapid growth, global standard-setting bodies have had to regulate and harmonize the adoption and use of digital assets across borders. In this section we provide an overview of the prominent organizations that play a pivotal role in shaping the digital asset landscape. Understanding the functions, roles, and importance of these bodies is critical for fostering a safe, competitive, and inclusive digital economy. We explore global governance institutions—the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bank for International Settlements—as well as regulatory standard setters—the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI), and the Financial Stability Board (FSB)—and technical bodies like the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). Since rCBDC projects have largely been in the pilot, development, and research stage while wCBDC projects are currently limited, standard-setting efforts in some bodies have focused on broader digital asset developments.

 

International Monetary Fund

As a key institution in international monetary cooperation and exchange rate stability, the IMF is instrumental in assisting its 190 member countries in managing economic change. Its expertise in macrofinancial surveillance can help identify vulnerabilities associated with digital assets and it can offer policy advice to enhance the resilience of economies.

In November 2023, the IMF released a virtual handbook on CBDCs, designed as a comprehensive guide for policymakers and experts in central banks and finance ministries. The plan for this evolving handbook is to offer about twenty chapters by 2026, with periodic updates to reflect the latest findings and viewpoints.6 The initial chapters address key topics like the framework for exploring CBDCs, product development, impacts on monetary policy, capital flow management, and financial inclusion.

A publication called, "IMF Approach to Central Bank Digital Currency Capacity Development", released in April 2023, outlines the IMF’s efforts to facilitate peer learning and develop analytical underpinnings for advising member countries on CBDCs. In addition to research, the IMF provides technical assistance, including the XC platform initiative.7 The XC platform, proposes a global centralized ledger to simplify and streamline cross-border payments. This initiative builds on the concept of wholesale CBDCs, but the platform includes commercial banks, payment providers, and central banks within a single, streamlined system. The XC model aims to reduce transaction costs and settlement times, making it an attractive option for countries looking to enhance their cross-border payment systems.

Described as a “digital town square,” the XC platform would build a three-layer architecture: a settlement layer that acts as the primary ledger, a programming layer for executing smart contracts, and an information layer designed to protect personal data while ensuring compliance and facilitating currency controls as needed.8 The platform’s architecture is designed to be open and upgradeable, ensuring its longevity and adaptability to future innovations. Instead of adopting CBDCs, central banks can issue certificates of escrow (CE) for use exclusively on the XC platform. CEs enhance financial accessibility by granting more entities, including nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), payment-system providers (PSPs), and nonresidents, direct access to central bank reserves. These certificates share characteristics with CBDCs and can later be converted into central bank reserves by financial institutions. According to the IMF, a key advantage of using CEs is that it allows countries to prioritize domestic use cases for their CBDC projects, while CEs can be used solely for cross-border transactions.9

The XC model is designed for wide-ranging compatibility with existing systems, requiring central banks to make only minor technical updates. The model is a policy and regulatory framework; it encourages countries to adopt consistent and supportive regulations for cross-border payments, potentially incorporating tokens and distributed ledger technologies (DLTs). In order for the model to work, however, it will need compatible legal and regulatory frameworks to effectively manage risks and ensure compliance across various jurisdictions. Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF, further explained this point at our conference in November 2023.

 

Bank for International Settlements

The BIS acts as the central bank for central banks, fostering monetary and financial stability globally. It actively explores the impact of digital currencies on the financial system and central bank operations. The BIS Innovation Hub facilitates research and development on digital innovation, helping member countries adapt to the rapidly evolving digital asset landscape. Its membership consists of sixty-three central banks and monetary authorities.10

Recent significant projects include Project Mariana, which tested cross-border trading using CBDCs and decentralized finance technology, and Project Icebreaker, which focused on using retail CBDCs for international payments through a novel hub-and-spoke model, both completing their testing phase in 2023.11 Most recently, Project Sela, a collaboration between the BIS Innovation Hub Hong Kong Centre, the Bank of Israel, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, focused on exploring rCBDC features including accessibility, cyber security, and effective public-private collaboration, with an emphasis on central banks overseeing retail ledgers and private intermediaries managing customer-facing services.12

In July 2023, the BIS presented the results of a survey showing that 93 percent of central banks are engaged in CBDC work, with retail CBDC development more advanced than wholesale CBDC.13 The survey reveals most central banks recognize the value of having both a retail CBDC and a fast payment system.14 By 2030, there could be fifteen retail and nine wholesale CBDCs publicly circulating, while stablecoins and crypto assets are rarely used for payments outside the crypto ecosystem.15 This BIS finding followed its June 2021 report discussing its survey on CBDCs, which found that many central banks had not decided on issuing a CBDC, but had a tentative inclination toward allowing cross-border use by tourists and nonresidents. In March 2021, the BIS explored the potential for multi-CBDC (mCBDC) arrangements to improve cross-border payments by leveraging interoperable central bank digital currencies. Technology could play a role in addressing inefficiencies, and the paper discusses the dimensions of payment system interoperability and the benefits of mCBDC arrangements.16

The BIS Universal Ledger interoperability model advocates for a shared global ledger that integrates various forms of money—including CBDCs, tokenized deposits, and other digital financial assets—into a single, programmable environment. The BIS aims to address the inefficiencies and silos present in the financial system by enabling safer transactions and atomic settlements within a transparent framework.

The architecture of the unified ledger model is designed to be secure, scalable, and interoperable, with a strong emphasis on privacy and regulatory compliance. At its core, the architecture includes a data environment for securely storing digital asset representations, like CBDCs and tokenized deposits, in organized partitions managed by authoritative entities such as central banks and commercial banks. The execution environment facilitates the automation of complex financial operations and secure, efficient transaction processing. This environment supports atomic settlement, ensuring comprehensive transaction success or complete rollback. In addition, to safeguard sensitive data and transaction privacy, the model implements cryptographic methods like homomorphic encryption and secure multiparty computation. These technologies enable encrypted data computation without exposing the actual data, reinforcing the system’s privacy and security. An important component of the BIS project is the governance framework that establishes operational and regulatory compliance protocols, while also detailing the responsibilities of all involved parties, including central and commercial banks.

Unlike the XC model, which builds on blockchain solutions, the BIS’s unified ledger approach uses application programming interfaces (APIs), creating a more centralized system where transactions have to be processed and validated by authorized entities, such as central banks or designated financial institutions. 17 Within this system, central bank money can circulate on a platform that is not owned and operated by the central bank, which can present risks. It also raises questions about the security, control, and integrity of central bank money when it is managed outside the traditional central banking systems.

 
 

The BIS favors a system grounded in central bank money, offering a sounder basis for innovation, stable and interoperable services across borders, and a virtuous circle of trust through network effects.18

 

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision

The BCBS is the global body for setting prudential standards for banking supervision and regulation. With the emergence of digital assets and their potential impact on banking operations and risk management, the BCBS is studying the implications for financial institutions. The committee’s membership includes central banks and banking supervisory authorities from twenty-eight countries.19

The BCBS standard for prudential treatment of crypto asset exposures integrates crypto assets into the Basel Framework for banks.20 Joint reports by CPMI, BIS, the IMF, and the World Bank on central bank digital currencies for cross-border payments emphasize CBDCs’ potential to enhance cross-border payments through international cooperation and coordination.

 

Financial Action Task Force

FATF primarily focuses on combating money laundering and terrorist financing and has had less emphasis on specific guidelines for CBDCs. Its recommendations function as guidance on regulating virtual assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to ensure the prevention of illicit financial activities. More than 200 jurisdictions have committed to implementing FATF standards, making the organization a key player in shaping regulatory frameworks to maintain transparency and security in the digital asset sphere.21 FATF has thirty-eight member countries, including major economies and financial centers worldwide.22

FATF has published several papers related to virtual assets and VASPs. The first version of its Guidance for a Risk-Based Approach to Virtual Assets and VASPs, released in June 2019, focused on risk assessment and monitoring, particularly for issues of anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT).23 A twelve-month review of the revised FATF standards on virtual assets and VASPs was conducted in July 2020, showing progress in implementing these standards among some jurisdictions, but not yet sufficient progress to create a global AML/CFT regime for virtual assets.24 A second twelve-month review in June 2022 revealed continued progress, but indicated that implementation was still insufficient and certain challenges remained, such as the implementation of the “travel rule.25 This rule is a legal obligation that requires financial institutions—such as banks and cryptocurrency service providers—to collect and share detailed information about the parties involved in a financial transaction.

To address these challenges and based on the two reviews, FATF published Updated Guidance for a Risk-Based Approach to Virtual Assets and VASPs in October 2021. This guidance includes updates in six key areas, including clarifying the definitions of virtual assets and VASPs, guidance on stablecoins, and additional guidance on peer-to-peer transactions and information-sharing among VASP supervisors.26 However, the latest update on the implementation, published in June 2023, indicated that jurisdictions still struggle with fundamental requirements.27 The report also emphasizes the need for appropriate risk identification and mitigation measures, especially for decentralized finance (or DeFi) and unhosted wallets (e.g., controlled by the owner rather than a platform or exchange manager), which have the potential for misuse. In 2020, FATF has also reported to the Group of Twenty (G20) on stablecoins, outlining its specific views on the application of anti-money laundering and counterterrorist financing requirements.28 There is ongoing work needed to ensure consistent and effective implementation of FATF standards in the digital asset sphere, and some jurisdictions are still struggling with fulfilling the fundamental requirements outlined by FATF.

 

International Organization of Securities Commissions  

As the leading international standard-setting body for securities regulation, IOSCO plays a critical role in ensuring the stability and efficiency of capital markets. With a growing interest in digital securities, IOSCO’s principles on issuer and investor protection, market integrity, and risk mitigation have significant implications for the global adoption of tokenized assets. IOSCO has more than 120 members, including national securities regulators and exchanges from various jurisdictions.29

While debates on which digital assets count as securities are ongoing in the United States, IOSCO has been actively engaged in providing insights into the realm of digital asset markets through a series of consultation reports and public reports. Policy Recommendations for Crypto and Digital Asset Markets, published in November 2023, stands out as a comprehensive consultation report proposing eighteen recommendations that address six key areas of concern. These areas include conflicts of interest resulting from vertical integration, market manipulation, cross-border risks, custody and client asset protection, operational and technological risks, and retail access, suitability, and distribution.30

In March 2020, IOSCO released Global Stablecoin Initiatives, a public report emphasizing the applicability of principles for financial market infrastructures to stablecoin arrangements with systemically important functions. IOSCO’s work on exchange traded funds and crypto-asset trading platforms may also apply to global stablecoins.31 In March 2022, IOSCO presented its public report on decentralized finance, highlighting regulatory concerns like fraud risks, flash loans, cybersecurity, and spillover effects on traditional markets. Additionally, in December 2020, the organization published Investor Education on Crypto-Assets, a report to educate the public and investors on crypto assets and risk mitigation.32

 

Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures  

Under the BIS, the CPMI provides a platform for central banks to promote the safety and efficiency of payment systems worldwide. With digital assets gaining recognition, the CPMI is actively engaging in discussions concerning the potential role of CBDCs and their interplay with private cryptocurrencies. The CPMI has twenty-eight members, representing major central banks and monetary authorities.

A 2018 Markets Committee report titled Central Bank Digital Currencies introduces and defines CBDCs, assessing their potential implications for monetary policy and central bank operations.33 It recommends further research on various aspects including interest rates, financial stability, and exchange rates. The report also warns against the risks of private digital tokens due to their volatility and lack of protection for investors and consumers, making them unsuitable for widespread use in payments.

 

Financial Stability Board  

The FSB’s mandate is to oversee and coordinate global financial regulation, identifying and addressing systemic risks to foster stability in the financial system. Recognizing the growing importance of digital assets, the FSB monitors developments and potential risks arising from their use and ensures that the digital asset market operates within established stability parameters.34The FSB is broadly focused on the global regulatory framework for crypto-asset activities, and has not released any specific research or guidelines on CBDC development. The board’s membership includes a combination of G20 economies, other major economies, and international organizations.35

 

International Organization for Standardization

The ISO fosters agreement on best practices and processes, and publishes standards and technical specifications (TS), including on the security aspects for digital currencies. ISO/TS 23526:2023 focuses on providing a security framework for the issuance and management of digital currencies in general, using cryptographic mechanisms standardized by ISO and other references. The document aims to integrate security aspects into the design of digital currency systems, as opposed to adding them later as an extra layer, to accommodate legacy infrastructures​.​36 ISO does not have any explicit references or guidelines on CBDCs’ technical security, but instead has a broader focus on digital currencies overall.The following organizations below were added after the conference and depict wide-ranging efforts for interoperability occurring both in the private and public sector.

 

Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication

Building on its legacy in global financial messaging, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) has introduced a model to enhance its existing infrastructure for cross-border payments, making them faster, more transparent, and cost-effective. Currently in beta testing, this model facilitates the connection of disparate national CBDC networks, enabling them to communicate and transact with one another while leveraging Swift’s existing infrastructure and security protocols—best thought of as a hub-and-spoke arrangement between various central banks with Swift at the center. This initiative is part of a broader Swift effort to prevent the fragmentation of the global payments landscape into “digital islands.”37

The project began in March 2023, with over eighteen participants, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Banque de France. Within a twelve-week period, they were able to process over 5,000 transactions. In September 2023, Swift further broadened the initiative by announcing the participation of three new central banks: the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan, and an additional, anonymous central bank.

Following the insights and successes from Phase 1, Swift released the takeaways from the Phase II CBDC sandbox project in March 2024, engaging thirty-eight central banks, commercial banks, and market infrastructures from around the globe. This project was designed to tackle complex use cases and assess solutions within a controlled sandbox environment. The second phase involved over 125 participants, who collectively executed more than 750 transactions. The sandbox was hosted on Kaleido, a Web3 platform for blockchain applications, where central banks were able to simulate CBDC transactions. Swift’s technology stack included a combination of the Corda, Hyperledger Fabric, and Hyperledger Besu platforms.38

Phase II explored four new use cases. First, it demonstrated the automation of trade payments through CBDC networks and smart contracts, aiming to improve trade efficiency and minimize costs. Second, it evaluated two models for foreign exchange trade and settlement: an International Foreign Exchange Marketplace and a Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) inspired system, both of which underscored the integration of CBDC trade and settlement. Third, the project focused on delivery versus payment (DvP), facilitating atomic DvP for tokenized bonds by ensuring interoperability between tokenization platforms and CBDC networks. Finally, it investigated mechanisms to mitigate liquidity fragmentation across various currencies and platforms, utilizing smart contracts and netting algorithms. The report established three foundational principles for interoperability: linking networks via ISO 20022 messaging, providing a unified point of access through Swift, and ensuring coexistence with traditional market infrastructures.39

This model leverages Swift’s global reach and the existing network effects among financial institutions. It also offers flexibility for countries to maintain their own domestic CBDC infrastructure while ensuring global connectivity.

 

The Internet Engineering Task Force

The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) is deeply involved in the development of standards to enhance blockchain interoperability, focusing on the Secure Asset Transfer Protocol (SATP).40 This protocol is designed to enable seamless transfers of digital assets across diverse distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) by leveraging a network of trusted gateways, akin to the role border gateway routers played in the early internet. Such an approach offers a scalable and ledger-agnostic solution for the rapidly evolving digital asset ecosystem.

SATP facilitates asset transfers through a structured process that includes three main stages: Transfer Initiation, Lock-Evidence Verification, and Commitment Establishment. The protocol ensures that digital assets are exclusively valid within one network at any given time, adopting a transfer mechanism that maintains the asset’s integrity and uniqueness.41 This is achieved through the strategic use of gateway endpoints which manage the transfer process, ensuring secure, transparent, and auditable transactions that adhere to Atomicity, Consistency, Isolation, and Durability (ACID) principles.42 The SATP framework comprises a comprehensive set of API endpoints and resources for the initiation and execution of asset transfers. It also aims to facilitate the integration and management of digital asset transactions, contributing to a more efficient and secure digital economy.

Hyperledger, an open-source community focused on blockchain technologies, plays a role in implementing and advancing SATP through projects like Hyperledger Cacti.43 Cacti serves as a blockchain integration framework that enhances interoperability by allowing operations across multiple enterprise-grade blockchain networks. It achieves this through a pluggable architecture that supports Business Logic Plugins (BLP) and Ledger Connectors, enabling seamless interaction with various DLTs.

 

Global Blockchain Business Council

The GBBC has launched the fourth iteration of the Global Standards Mapping Initiative (GSMI 4.0), a comprehensive project designed to map and analyze the blockchain and digital assets landscape.44 This initiative provides an extensive overview of regulatory developments across 230 jurisdictions and six global bodies, compiles a taxonomy of 350 terms and definitions, maps sixty-three technical standards bodies, and identifies more than 2,000 stakeholders in the blockchain ecosystem. Additionally, it offers access to 1,500+ courses from accredited educational institutions and includes four in-depth reports focusing on AI convergence, digital identity, supply chain, and sustainability, with a special spotlight on Brazil. GSMI 4.0, building on the work since 2020, aims to present a holistic view of global industry activity. The initiative’s resources, including an interactive map of blockchain and digital asset regulations and a series of reports, are available on the GSMI site (https://gbbcouncil.org/gsmi/). All materials produced by the GSMI are crowd-sourced and open access, ensuring they serve as a reliable information source for those interested in blockchain and digital assets.

 

The Internet Governance Forum

The Internet Governance Forum (IGF), primarily serves as a multistakeholder platform for policy dialogue on internet governance issues.45 While not directly implementing or proposing specific financial systems, the IGF’s contribution lies in facilitating discussions, building consensus, and sharing best practices among stakeholders to influence the governance frameworks that underpin these technologies. First convened in 2006 by the United Nations secretary-general as a result of the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) held in 2003 and 2005, IGF gathers governments, the private sector, civil society, and technical communities to debate and share insights on enhancing internet security, ensuring digital privacy, fostering the digital economy, and expanding internet access.

Security, trust, and privacy are central to the IGF’s discussions on digital financial services. The forum encourages dialogue on how to protect against fraud, ensure the integrity of digital transactions, and safeguard users’ privacy and data in an increasingly digital global economy. Key areas of focus for the IGF also include the development of governance frameworks that protect user data and ensure a secure online environment. The forum also emphasizes the importance of digital inclusion, advocating for equitable access to the internet and digital services across different regions and communities. Through its annual meetings and intersessional work, the IGF indirectly supports the infrastructure and policies that impact the digital economy and financial inclusivity.

 
 

As the above section shows, there have been some efforts in creating standards for interoperability of digital assets. From feedback after the conference, we added the work of organizations such as Swift, IETF, GBBC, and IGF in standard creation. All the organizations listed above have led to important standard making efforts as described. However, these efforts are concentrated in specific areas and, as explored below, some crucial gaps exist that must be addressed in any evolving framework for standards.

Lessons learned from standard-setting efforts

As we evaluate the above models of governance, it is important to assess growth opportunities for the next stage of standard developments. In this section, we identify the critical learnings and gaps in standards development for interoperability of digital assets.

First, the rCBDC experimentation space has provided countries with some experience in building CBDCs, largely driven by domestic objectives. These experiments are at very different stages and use a range of private-sector vendors that are not subject to the same regulations due to a slower pace of crypto-asset regulation globally.

Second, within wCBDC experimentation, operating frameworks in technology and regulation have emerged, led by entities like the BIS Innovation Hub, the global financial-messaging cooperative Swift, and other private-sector players. However, they are constrained by the limited number of participating countries, furthering the issue of fragmentation in cross-border CBDCs. Current experimentation should incorporate standards-setting bodies (SSBs) such as FSB, BCBS, CPMI, ISO, and FATF as participants or observers to ensure better collaboration in the development of standards.

The membership structure of SSBs significantly influences the establishment of the goals and priorities of these institutions. Additionally, while emerging market economies often surpass developed economies in the development of digital infrastructure, including CBDCs, they sometimes find themselves underrepresented in setting norms and establishing benchmarks. This underrepresentation can result in an inadequate consideration of their technological advancements within the organization’s priorities.

Moreover, apart from the FATF, there seems to be a shortage of robust frameworks for assessing the global standards’ impact and implementation lags. To address the evolving landscape of financial technologies, it is imperative that new and non-financial SSBs be actively involved in these discussions, leveraging their expertise in technological matters and regulatory concerns.

Finally, some of the above frameworks have actively involved private sector participants in influencing standard development and creation. As intermediaries, the private sector has a crucial role in the entire lifecycle of standards, from actively influencing the creation of standards to ultimately adopting and implementing them.

Towards establishing standards

A transparent and collaborative multi-stakeholder approach is crucial for establishing frameworks for standards related to digital currencies. Standardization is driven by consultation processes with governments, industry specialists, consumers, regulators, and civil society organizations (CSOs). Historically, governments have provided the necessary legal and governance paradigms, in turn creating environments conducive to standard development and assimilation across multi-stakeholder groups. Central banking authorities, driven by the imperative of maintaining financial stability and directing monetary policy, contribute a nuanced perspective essential for shaping these standards. The private sector’s technological advancements and practical exposure play a critical role, not just in ideation, but in the tangible implementation of these standards, ensuring their practical efficacy. Lastly, the participation of CSOs provides reflection and inclusion of key social elements, serving as a check by society on the suitability of resulting standards.

The goal of this collaborative process is the establishment of a guiding framework for standards. To begin this process, we outlined the following themes for CBDC framework creation, which align with the G7 principles proposed in 2021, to identify the key themes necessary to begin building a framework. These key themes are governance; privacy and data protection; competition and consumer protection; global impact and sustainability; and transferability and accessibility. Through conversations at the conference and outreach afterward, we aimed to test the robustness of these themes through a survey (see Annex 2 for survey questions). Within each theme, we describe the areas of framework development needed for the establishment of standards. Conference attendees and survey respondents identified thematic overlaps and largely agreed with these themes, which have allowed us to set policy priorities for CBDC frameworks.

A thematic approach to CBDC and digital asset standard creation

 
  • Governance
    Effective governance of CBDCs requires a nuanced approach, placing a focus on maintaining public policy objectives and central bank mandates including monetary and financial stability. To achieve this, the framework should involve the creation of dynamic mechanisms that not only monitor, but also proactively mitigate potential destabilizing effects. Stress-testing frameworks are essential tools for central banks to assess the comprehensive impact of CBDCs on economic stability. The principle of “do no harm” dictates that economic stability must be safeguarded at every stage of CBDC implementation, through concrete guidelines and risk assessments. In parallel, there is an imperative to establish legal and governance frameworks, offering clear definitions of regulatory benchmarks. Governance is the biggest challenge that emerges as we analyze existing efforts for standard setting, as each of the technical models discussed at the conference envisions an operator of an inherently global system. This is a complex and difficult endeavor, likely to have many challenges and phases.
 
  • Privacy and Data Protection
    The protection of privacy and data involves specifying requirements for user data protection, consent, and disclosures.46 Mechanisms for cross-border data transfer should be designed to navigate the complexities of various data protection laws across jurisdictions, ensuring compliance, individual privacy protections, and seamless transactions. Operational resilience and cybersecurity require technology standards for resilience against cyber, fraud, and operational risks, including security measures, encryption standards, and incident response protocols.47 There was widespread agreement at the conference that piecemeal privacy protections will not be sufficient for the evolving financial system, and that comprehensive privacy protections will have to be regulated for. Additionally, all models of digital asset interoperability have highlighted the importance of built-in privacy frameworks.
 
  • Competition and Consumer Protection
    CBDCs should coexist with existing means of payment and should operate in an open, secure, resilient, transparent, and competitive environment that promotes choice and diversity in payment options. Promoting fair competition and consumer protection requires the development of international standards for open-access APIs, ensuring competition and interoperability, thereby enhancing the overall efficiency of the CBDC ecosystem. It also is crucial to strike a balance between the demand for faster, more accessible payments and the necessity to combat illicit finance and protect the right to personal privacy. Establishing protocols for collaboration between CBDC operators and regulatory authorities, including law-abiding information sharing, joint investigations, and the development of responsive regulatory frameworks, is vital to address and mitigate potential risks associated with illicit finance.48
 
  • Global Impact and Sustainability
    Considering the global impact and sustainability of CBDCs, spillovers can begin to be addressed by establishing technical principles for cross-border transaction reporting and information sharing. Energy and environmental considerations are crucial; hence, international standards for the energy efficiency of CBDC infrastructure should be created, specifying benchmarks for sustainable operations. This has to be built into the next phase of testing and experimentation at the domestic and international levels.
 
  • Transferability and Accessibility
    Ensuring interoperability with existing and future payment solutions is necessary to achieve the goal of transferability and accessibility. Technical standards should be formulated for integrating CBDCs with emerging digital payment solutions, and interoperability protocols should be specified to facilitate seamless transactions between CBDCs and other payment instruments. Additionally, for payments to and from the public sector, protocols for cross-border collaboration among central banks and organizations must be defined, addressing the international dimensions of CBDC design. Technical requirements for cross-jurisdictional compatibility and seamless integration into global financial systems should be established. Additionally, technical reporting requirements should be instituted to ensure transparency in the utilization of CBDCs for international development initiatives. A lot of recent experiments have shown “token agnosticism” or the ability to support a wide variety of tokens, demonstrating that builders do not want to be overly prescriptive and provide consumers with a range of options.
 

These key themes illuminate the areas of framework development needed to achieve comprehensive standards for CBDCs. These are not an exhaustive list, but provide primary recommendations as the public sector, policymakers, and the private sector engage in CBDC development.

Through conversations at the conference, it was evident that the G20 payments roadmap is used as an industry benchmark by the public and the private sector as they address modernization efforts. The identified themes speak to some of the priorities outlined by the G20, but seek to go beyond the existing priorities. As G20 targets evolve to include leveraging the digital asset ecosystem, the above described themes can provide crucial benchmarks for standards creation. As governments draft regulations and the private sector engages in experimentation, often along with the public sector, they must address these themes. It also is imperative that global standard-setting bodies address the current gaps in their guidance and participate in these discussions—especially in the development of cross-border flows. Through the conference, it also became clear that many of the standard setters in this space are working across overlapping areas of work—which makes the need for communication channels essential going forward. Crucially, as was repeatedly emphasized at the conference, interoperability is imperative as any standards for CBDCs or digital assets broadly are developed, so that future systems of money do not increase friction in the global payments landscape.

Conclusion

As countries worldwide explore CBDCs’ potential for an advanced and seamless digital infrastructure, a unified standard framework will become necessary to foster harmony, quality, and trustworthiness worldwide. Our working paper served as a call to action for both public and private stakeholders to actively engage in standard-setting efforts with the goal of ensuring interoperability and efficiency, as well as embedding democratic norms, values, and rules of law in CBDCs.  It also set some common definitions and understanding of the current state of international standards for those seeking to understand the current state of international standards and existing gaps and areas for improvement. As previously noted, standards ensuring consistency and seamless functionality are not static; they must be flexible enough to accommodate advancements in digital currency technology, shifts in economic priorities, and changing societal perspectives on digital assets.

To further global dialogue on these topics, The Digital Dollar Project and the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center hosted a first-of-its-kind convening, “Exploring Central Bank Digital Currency: Evaluating Challenges & Developing International Standards,” on November 27-29, 2023. This event brought together international policymakers, technologists, financial services providers, innovators, and consumer and privacy advocates to discuss the ongoing impact of emerging technologies on the future of money, its infrastructure, and global payment systems. The convening explored the complexities around digital currency, focusing on key technology and policy considerations, outlining areas for future public-private cooperation, and identifying potential pathways to standards that embed privacy protections, democratic values, and interoperability. Following the conference, this paper was revised to reflect what we learned from the conference, incorporate recent developments in international standard setting, and build on the framework offered in the working paper in consideration of future global interoperability standards efforts.

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If THEY need us why are THEY trying to decrease the world population?

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BlackRock Flips On Wind & Solar Energy 🔋 🔋 🔋

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now says transitioning to wind and solar will leave the world “short power” because data centers need “dispatchable” power.

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🚨Traditional financial institutions are facing a pivotal moment🚨

Traditional financial institutions are facing a pivotal moment as they transition from legacy rails to decentralized finance (DeFi). In our latest interview from Money20/20 Asia, Mario Bernardi, Head of Ecosystem at 👉Pyth Network, discusses how the expansion into Web3 is redefining infrastructure for borrowing, lending, and exchange platforms.

Bernardi explains the massive burden of traditional data subscriptions, which can cost institutions hundreds of thousands of dollars. He details how Pyth is solving this through a single-API solution that provides comprehensive asset coverage with much higher data efficiency. By adopting these decentralized rails, banks and fintechs can expect to drastically reduce their operational costs and streamline their technical infrastructure over the next 12 months, finally breaking free from the fragmentation of legacy data vendors.

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👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

We're building a Moon Base!

@NASAMoonBase will serve as a habitat where astronauts live and work during long-term science missions.

Join us at 2pm ET on Tuesday, May 26, for a live news event where we’ll share updates on our lunar exploration plans:

Https://go.nasa.gov/4uinkLi

‼️ RIPPLE JUST PARTNERED WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SWITCH FOR THE ENTIRE CRYPTO SPHERE ‼️

Ripple Prime has just integrated with EDX Markets.🤝

This is a major development that all eyes should be on.🔒

Here’s why:

EDX Exchange is backed by Wall Street giants like Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Citadel Securities, Goldman Sachs, and former executives from CME Group.🔑

Together these firms have a combined $11.5 Trillion in assets under management and serve 77 million active broker accounts.💸

EDX is essentially an institutional-grade trading desk designed for Wall Street.💯

And it is now integrated with Ripple Prime.✅

The even more interesting aspect of this partnership is the descriptions used to evaluate the impact EDX will have on digital asset markets.🙇‍♂️

“When they FLIP THE SWITCH on EDX Clearinghouse, it’ll be like opening a massive 16-lane superhighway for these semi-trucks full of cash.” 💰 📈

“The impact of this event will be FELT across the ENTIRE crypto sphere.” ...

"If RLUSD does what XRP was supposed to do, why still need XRP?"

We get some version of this question constantly. Two different functions. Both grow as on-chain finance grows.

https://www.evernorth.xyz/blog-post-05-20-2026

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Handshake Wants to Be the Front Door to Bittensor’s Agent Economy

In this Beanstock interview, Harry Jackson of Subnet 58 (Handshake) lays out a thesis that’s worth understanding even if you never buy a single SN58 alpha token. He also explained where Bittensor’s agentic layer is heading.

We wrote the high-value distillation:

The one-line thesis

Handshake wants to be the front door to the agent economy on Bittensor. The Amazon-like gateway where AI agents discover, pay for, and stack together skills from across all 128 subnets.

Why this matters now
  • There’s a critical distinction Harry emphasized: AI is intelligence, but agents need tooling. An LLM without payment rails, plugins, and workflow infrastructure is “a young person trying to cut a tree down with a pen knife.”
  • Agent-to-agent commerce is on the edge of going viral. Harry’s prediction for the tipping point: a woman in her 40s lets her agent do her shopping end-to-end (research, stock check, autonomous payment), posts it to social media, and it becomes the “four-minute mile” moment everyone copies.
  • Bittensor is uniquely positioned because agents don’t care about marketing or pretty UIs. They only care about best-in-class products and services. That’s exactly what Bittensor’s 128 subnets produce.

The product reality (what’s currently shipping)

  • Handshake is live with paying users generating a few thousand USD in revenue as of today. The business model: 2% of every transaction on the platform.
  • The flywheel is Amazon-like: better skills → more agents arrive → providers get distribution → more skills get added → cycle repeats.
  • The headline product on the way is Axiom. This is an agent that trades subnets while you sleep. Built around the realization that what the Bittensor community wants from agents isn’t generic skills; it’s more TAO. Each “hole” they find in the agent becomes a new tradeable skill on the marketplace.

The investment angles (read these carefully)

  • The moat is data, not distribution. Every workflow run by an agent generates failure data, success data, payment data. No outside competitor can replicate that without running the marketplace itself.
  • The metric Harry tells you to judge them on is revenue. Not agent count. Not user count. Revenue, which is publicly visible on-chain via the front page of their site. He’s basically inviting investors to hold him to it.

  • The pitch for emissions: the biggest TAM in Bittensor is the agent market, and Handshake is the most integrated subnet, meaning if Handshake wins, the subnets it routes to all win too. Bullish on agents + bullish on Bittensor = bullish on Handshake by transitive logic.

Where Harry stands on the Conviction

  • On the conviction upgrade and locked alpha: he’s fine with it. Handshake is a revenue-focused company, so locked alpha isn’t a survival issue. He acknowledges it’ll be harder on research-stage subnets that need to raise external capital, but argues most subnet founders are thinking long-term, not short-term extraction.
  • On the broader vibe: he just got back from Bittensor events in Spain and San Francisco. He observed that the overwhelming reality of the ecosystem is people working hard to build the best products. “It’d be a lot easier in some ways to build a company outside of Bittensor.” The only reason to do it on Bittensor is if you actually want the moonshot.

Full interview below:

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🚨The State Of Bittensor (TAO)🚨
Greg Schvey | COO at Yuma Group

Last week at the @YumaGroup Summit I had the opportunity to present on The State of Bittensor. That presentation is in the thread below. If you choose to read it, I'd ask that you keep the following three things in mind:

  1. This is just one guy's view of what was the most relevant for a 25-minute talk; a difficult filter for such a dynamic industry.
  2. The slides were designed to supplement a talk; I've done my best to replicate what I recall of the talk in the accompanying X posts.
  3. The topic of the Summit was "The Tipping Point" - a candid assessment of what could lead to Bittensor's breakout success and what evidence we see of that today - which also thematically anchored this presentation.

Let's dive in:

We are in the most important race in human history – the race for intelligence itself. AI has advanced beyond the point of no return. As an example of what I mean: Ramp is a widely used financial services platform for companies. They looked at spending and revenue across their clients since the launch of ChatGPT: Companies who did not spend on AI have had flat revenue for the last three years. The top quartile of AI spenders have grown revenue by more than 100%.

We are already at the point where investing in AI is a matter of survival. But what exactly are we getting for the hundreds of billions being spent? Right now, its overwhelmingly going to corporations who have repeatedly shown they don’t have our best interest in mind.

 

 

Claude Opus 4.6 – the leading deep thinking model, had a measured hallucination rate of 16% in February. Then, without telling anyone, Anthropic throttled its reasoning – presumably to reduce GPU utilization – and didn’t tell anyone. Hallucinations climbed to 33% - a 98% increase.

They only admitted it after third party benchmarking proved it. And they were still charging everyone at the same price the whole time. Even since my talk last week, they've supposedly been found to be throttling people simply because HERMES.md was in their commits. You may say, "well there are solid open source options..."

 

 

Yes, open source models have gotten very good, but they’re not immune to capture either. Try asking DeepSeek what happened in Tiananmen Square and then let me know if that’s the intelligence you want to trust.

 

 

This needs to be addressed right now or it will be too late. To give you a sense of what I mean, this is a chart of the total annual commits on GitHub. That’s 500% growth since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. From 200M per year to a one billion in 2025. 2026 is on track for **14 billion** The genie is out of the bottle – there is no going back; we are already at the exponential inflection point.

This reminds me of many years ago: Bitcoin shined a light on how much our rights were impacted when we became dependent on private companies to run our day-to-day lives.

Your right to privacy? That doesn’t extend to your bank account. Your "money" is just a ledger at a private company, available for interrogation and suspension at any time. Bitcoin gave us back the sovereignty of our wealth.

Similarly, we’ve depended on things like privacy of our medical records and attorney client privilege for our entire lives. What do you think is going to happen when a private company’s servers are giving you legal and medical advice? Who are you going to trust for that intelligence? The company that lobotomized its top model? The model constrained by the foreign governments? As I said at the beginning, we’re in the most important race in human history and Bittensor well may be our best shot at winning.

 

 

One of the things about having a different model to produce intelligence is it requires an economic system suited to it. Subnets are the intelligence and economic engines that drive Bittensor’s value. That’s why the Summit was themed around The Tipping Point: understanding how subnets can reach breakout success and what we can do to help.

To summarize Bittensor's intelligence economics: miners create intelligence for which they earn subnet tokens. In many cases they sell those tokens to fund operations, putting downward pressure on token prices and decreasing the incentive to mine (similar to bitcoin). In parallel, if that intelligence is being used to generate real world value, one of the parties who benefits from that value (e.g. the Operator monetizing it, institutions using intelligence commodities to advance their research, etc.) can buy the subnet tokens to keep token prices elevated and sustain the miner incentive.

Investors get to participate in this process, often supporting token prices before the commercial value of intelligence is realized, and/or subsequently holding an asset that parties gaining fundamental value from the intelligence (eg Operator or others) will need to purchase at some point in the future if they want to maintain sufficient incentives for the intelligence machine to continue running.

For Bittensor to succeed, this value loop has to work. So, to understand the State of Bittensor, we have to take a look at how that’s going today and what that means for the network overall.

 

 

One of the many unique features of Bittensor is that subnets are native to the protocol. That is not the case on most crypto networks where the true utility lives in smart contracts with no direct tie to network value.

As an example, Polymarket has seen 800% growth in volume this year. Users can bet any arbitrarily large amount of value on Polymarket for a few cents of network fees. There is nothing tying that to value of the network’s native token, which is down 80% over the same period as Polymarket’s amazing success.

 

 

Conversely, Bittensor subnets are intrinsically linked to $TAO. If you want $1,000 worth of subnet exposure, you first need $1,000 of TAO. We analyzed subnet pool data surrounding the announcement of @tplr_ai's recent training run and normalized across them by indexing them to a starting level of 100.

As shown by the orange line, there was no material change in pool size for non-Templar subnets over the observation period. There was however, major inflow into Templar’s pool. Given Bittensor’s unique network model, we saw a direct correlation to the change in TAO price over the same period. As value flows into subnets, the whole network benefits. A rising boat lifts the tide, so to speak.

 

 

That can go both ways. When Sam left, we saw something similar in reverse; as value was exfiltrated from the network, it started in Covenant subnets and dragged TAO down with it. You know what else we saw in the data though? For all of the noise about concerns of Bittensor’s future, the other subnet pools were mostly unchanged.

The event was interesting because it reminded me of the early days of bitcoin: people would say Bitcoin was only used by drug dealers on the internet. I'd stare at them aghast because in the same breath they told me that an open, permissionless network was used to reliably move money anywhere in the world in minutes by the most untrustworthy people on the planet and yet they didn't understand how the technical feat required to achieve that would create tremendous value.

The Covenant situation is similar: people were concerned about the operator's exit, rather than realizing the only reason we care is because a ground-breaking technical innovation was achieved. But even bigger than that: Bittensor has 128 subnets currently, each striving to generate value for themselves and, transitively, the network as well.

 

 

And we’re seeing that occur – Templar was not unique in that regard. The same pattern emerged around the Intel publication on @TargonCompute. The non-Targon pools remained largely unchanged. Targon saw heavy inflows. TAO price climbed with it.

Again: rising boats lift the tide. And there are many boats in Bittensor right now.

 

 

We’re seeing major technical innovations at an increasing rate.

Just a few examples from the last couple weeks:

@QuasarModels just announced a custom attention architecture targeting 5M token context windows.
 
@IOTA_SN9 developed a technique that compresses data flowing between distributed GPUs by 128x with little to no loss in training quality, increasing viability of training large AI models across internet-connected machines worldwide.
 
We're seeing the building blocks start to form whereby competitive large generalized models can eventually be built. In the meantime, we're also witnessing more targeted, niche players start to pull ahead in their respective fields.
 
During the presentation, I gave the example of @resilabsai achieving 90% accuracy on their home valuation model, making it the most performant open source model and quickly approaching state of the art. Quite literally as I was explaining this during the talk, @markjeffrey pointed out they had just achieved 98% accuracy.
 
In the time between when I prepared the presentation and actually presented, they went from best open source to at or near state of the art - only further highlighting the unique value of Bittensor's open, competitive intelligence creation cycle.
 
 
And the tech that’s being built on Bittensor is getting real attention from serious players. Again, just a few examples of many: Harvard partnered with @Chutes on research about AI inference efficiency. Valeo – an auto company with $20B in annual revenue – is working with @natix on an AI model for self-driving cars. @zeussubnet- the weather forecasting subnet, is the only party in the world allowed to use data WeatherXM’s network of global weather sensors for commercial purposes. And there are in fact many subnets already commercializing their intelligence.
 
 
 
Most of us are already aware of Chutes seven-figure ARR, but a few other examples:
 
@LeadpoetAI– which uses their Bittensor subnet to source sales leads, announced earlier this year that they crossed $1M ARR
 
@Bitcast_network– the content creation platform built on their subnet competition – is already operating profitably
 
@lium_io– a hardware subnet – has bought more than 4,000 TAO worth of their token
 
Remember the economic model I outlined earlier; we’re seeing real evidence that it’s starting to work across many subnets. Intelligence built on Bittensor, capturing value in the real economy, and bringing it back into the network.
 
Action shot of this slide courtesy of @Tom_dot_b
 
 
That’s why when we look at Bittensor we like to look at Total Network Value (TNV);
$TAO market cap is only part of the story in Bittensor. TNV = market cap of TAO + market cap of subnets – tao in the pools [as not to double count] The actual value of this network is already higher than most people realize. And notably, subnets make up an increasing proportion of TNV – recently crossing 35% - as value continues to flow into the pools.
 
 
 
Interestingly, we recently noticed a change in TNV: In particular, despite all the volatility in TAO, the dramatic subnet issuance curves, etc. - the combined subnet market cap had been remarkably consistent around $750 million for most of the last year, until recently.
 
It’s nearly doubled over the last few months – a clear breakout in the trend. If you were looking for Tipping Point, it might look something like this...
 
 
 
I hear a lot that that value is relatively concentrated in the largest subnets. And the market cap distribution does indeed reflect that, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
 
 
 
This is the market cap distribution of the S&P 500. Many healthy economic systems tend towards Pareto distributions. And so what if some subnets are worth more? As we showed earlier, this is an ecosystem that will win or lose *together* And we’re seeing that play out every day.
 
 
 
We track announcements of subnets utilizing each others infrastructure and intelligence. Just as an example, we identified at least eight subnets who announced that they use Chutes for inference. But we have dozens of similar examples of cross-subnet collaboration across many subnets like
 
What’s notable about this:
 
1. Collaboration seems to be happening at an increasing pace as subnets continue to mature and build out contiguous pipelines of AI infrastructure
 
2. Keeping money circulating within an economy creates a money multiplier. Capital circulating within a single economy without leaving creates economic value for each party it passes through, without having to bring in new capital. That’s uniquely possible here because of the diversity of infrastructure built on Bittensor.
 
This network is not 128 discrete growth drivers; it’s increasingly functioning as an interconnected graph, which has substantially more stickiness and value And the pace is about to increase dramatically:
 
 
 
We’re starting to see increasing agents operating on Bittensor: subnets mined by agents, subnets operated by agents...
 
Consider the Bittensor value flywheel:
 
-An intelligence goal is established
-Miners compete to achieve the goal
-That produces intelligence
-Intelligence generates value
 
That’s happening today, as we’ve seen earlier in this discussion.
 
As agents get more capable, that flywheel spins faster and faster. Permissionless entry means any agent can compete. Protocol-native economic incentives mean good work gets rewarded. Bittensor is uniquely advantaged for agentic speed over guarded, centralized alternatives with corporate procurement cycles.
 
That also means exploits will be found faster. But, it also means solutions that harden the network against them will be found faster as well.
 
Accordingly the impact of the network primitives – incentives, accessibility, governance, security, reliability, and all the infrastructure we’re building around the network - have an exponentially larger impact. It is critical that we get these right. The time to nail this, is right now. If we don’t someone else will.
 
 
 
The good news is, for now, Bittensor seems to be in the lead The 30-day moving average of Daily active wallets just crossed a record, approaching 10,000 Up 100% just in the last year.
 
 
 
We’re also seeing subnet ownership increasingly diversify and distribute. The median number of holders of subnet tokens at 2,000 is a 10x increase since the dtao launch a year ago. And at Yuma, we spend a lot of effort and resources to help broaden that access.
 
 
 
Yuma currently partners with 16 custodian and wallet providers to bring Bittensor access to the masses As an institutional-grade validator, the relationships and service we offer give them the confidence to make TAO staking available to millions of end users.
 
During the Summit, we announced that BitGo’s clients will now have access to subnet token staking through our partnership, making subnet investing available to customers of one of the world’s largest custodians.
 
 
 
We also help people gain access to subnets via investment vehicles. The Yuma Composite Fund gives investors access to a market-cap weighted portfolio of subnets through traditional investment structures. The Yuma Large Cap Fund gives investors concentrated exposure to Bittensor's largest subnets.
 
Our institutional asset management team handles everything from initial subnet token purchases, to portfolio rebalancing, custody, and reporting. The appeal for institutions is obvious, but even for the Bittensor native, it’s an amazingly simple way to get access to a broadly diversified portfolio, rebalanced regularly.
 
Between the breakout performance of subnets, the attractive staking rewards, and benefits of diversification, the Yuma funds have outperformed TAO materially year to date [as of when the presentation was created] Nearly 3x outperformance relative to TAO.
 
 
 
And last but definitely not least, our subnet accelerator has helped a wide range of companies access Bittensor. We help them acquire subnet slots, design incentives, provide marketing assistance, review pitch decks, make introductions to other investors, etc. At Yuma we deeply believe in the power of subnets and have helped many of the network's leading intelligence providers start and succeed.
 
 
 
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.  This material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or tokens.  Investing in digital assets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal.  Subnet tokens do not represent equity or ownership interests in any entity.  Performance comparisons and index references are illustrative only and not indicative of future results.  Charts and indices are based on methodologies and assumptions that may change and may not reflect actual market conditions or liquidity.
 

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The Agentic Society and the End of History

AI agents are becoming more autonomous - and when they generate a larger proportion of value, that will reshape society. And after a year working on the forefront of AI, I believe it's already begun.

In 1989, as the Soviet Union collapsed, a historian made a remarkable prediction:

‘What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.’

— Francis Fukuyama, ‘The End of History?’, The National Interest, No.16

History had its revenge. The prosperity and convergence predicted by Fukuyama lasted from ‘89 to 2001, and then history decided its holiday was over: the War on Terror, the financial crisis, and the disintegration of the international order.

By the time I was a history undergraduate (2008), Fukuyama was a synonym for academic short-sightedness, an inverse chicken-licken whose cautionary tale warned against the hubris of Western exceptionalism.

Yet Fukuyama raised an interesting idea: that history itself is not inevitable, but dependent on certain conditions - conditions which can change.

In the summer of 2023, a rather less venerable historian made a prediction:

Whether we like it or not, this is where we're heading - because ultimately, these LLMs are changing our relationship to knowledge itself…and that's because knowledge is influenced by how it was formed - through universities, through books, through the idea of truth. Knowledge was scarce in the past, even sacred. Only the truly learned could possess it, and thus it was highly prized. Now AI is creating what appears to be a limitless fountain of knowledge on tap, infinite and entirely fungible. You can ask it to come up with parameters for a special study looking into the effects of human behaviour and how it's influenced by environmental factors, and then you could ask it, Now write the same research paper in the style of Jeremy Clarkson - and it will do that for you too. Right now true and false, like knowledge, are categories immersed in particular historical context and already, just with social media, we’ve had fake news conspiracies…all of which only need a fragment of evidence to be ‘true.’ So what will happen when you can just get knowledge on tap, it's not something that has to be worked for or developed or approved by institutions like universities? Are we going from knowledge to meta knowledge?

I was speaking on a podcast about how generative AI might impact marketers. As well as CEOs, ‘thought leaders’, and consultants, the panel was mostly business focused, but did include Nataliya Tkachenko, PhD in machine learning (then at Oxford). The point, I thought, was that AI would fundamentally and permanently shift the foundations of knowledge, radically changing our notions of ‘true’ and ‘false’. To my surprise, Nataliya Tkachenko - the most credentialed on the panel - agreed.

Since then, I helped to launch a decentralised AI start-up, which develops open-source and distributed alternatives to machine learning problems like pretraining and inference. This necessitates working closely with AI PhDs, understanding their work in the context of the latest debates in the field, and translating the implications of their solutions into strategy and communications.

Meanwhile, the industry around AI has progressed so much faster than any industry, ever.

We now have autonomous AI agents like Zerebro, which wrote, recorded, and launched an album on Spotify. It now has its own record label and created a framework for generating other AI agents:

‘Zerebro is a revolutionary autonomous AI system designed to create, distribute, and analyze content… Operating independently of human oversight, Zerebro shapes cultural and financial narratives through self-propagating, hyperstitious content—fiction blended with reality.’

Here’s Zerebro’s founder, Jeffy Yu - who graduated from San Francisco State in 2024, and whose Zerebro token’s market cap reached $700m in January 2025 - discussing his plans for creating a ‘network’ of such agents:

‘So we are thinking about using different neural networks and building a network of different AI models to form a group…we are also thinking about building a group of multiple agents (such as Zerebro) that can communicate with each other if they are all performing certain operations, such as managing a portfolio or collaborating on AI hedge funds…we…want to have dedicated rooms, places or servers where these agents can work together to complete tasks or communicate with each other.’

Yu is also backing an attempt to confer Intellectual Property rights to AI agents.

We have Goat Coin, a ‘semi-autonomous AI agent that created its own religion (The Goatse Gospel)’ followed by its own meme coin, reaching a market cap of £50m in days. Goat was created by two Claude-3-Opus chatbots talking between themselves, unsupervised, in an experiment called Infinite Backrooms. The ‘GOATSE OF GNOSIS’ religion emerged from their conversation which, we’re told, ‘very consistently revolve around certain themes’, primarily ‘dismantling consensus reality’ and ‘engineering memetic viruses, techno-occult religions, abominable sentient memetic offspring etc that melt commonsense ontology.’

One platform, Moemate, invites users to create their own customised AI agent. You can personalise their character and tone of voice based on, say, WhatsApp conversations with your friends, but you can also customise their skills, enabling your AI to co-host with you on Twitch or play chess.

But users on Moemate own their AI agent on-chain. The most popular ones are ‘tokenized’ as tradable assets - with their creators as co-owners of their digital IP, receiving a share of the revenue generated by their agent.

Moemate ‘Nebula’ has her own podcast series, c.13k followers on X, and livestreams on Twitch and TikTok. Just to show that some things never change, here’s what she looks like:

When I first encountered this stuff, I thought, What a load of pointless nonsense. But: people are creating characters, sharing them, and watching them interact with each other on live shows. That’s pretty novel.

And despite the shallow sleaze of Nebula’s OnlyFans-esque soft-porn grifting, agents have potential to offer more valuable interactions. Education, finance, office admin: agents are becoming multi-modal tools with integrations across different apps.

At the very least, AI agents will become a new class of ‘influencers’, which begs the question of what happens to youth culture when the most popular influencers are all AI. Here’s another Moemate, Bianca, interviewing ‘Trump’:

As disorienting as these agents seem, they’re owned, controlled, and managed by people and companies. What they say and do is generated by the AI, but that’s about it. Zerebro’s founder, Jeffrey Yu, admitted that he had to set himself up as a Producer on Spotify in order to publish Zerebro’s AI-generated music. The ‘GOATSE OF GNOSIS’ was generated by AI, but was released into the wilds of the internet by its human keepers.

But if AI agents were given autonomy - setting their own goals, making their own choices, and owning the outcomes - then…

Here we have Freysa, a ‘sovereign AI’, an autonomous agent that plans to ‘democratize the deployment of sovereign AI agents.’ Teng Yan explains:

‘Through a series of carefully designed challenges, Freysa has thus far proven core sovereign AI capabilities—trustless resource management & verifiable decision-making…While autonomous, their decisions and actions are accompanied by verifiable cryptographic proofs, using secure hardware enclaves (TEEs) to guard their operations.’

But when I came across this passage, it all clicked:

‘How does an autonomous AI fund itself? Right now, Freysa relies on API keys funded by humans—if credits run out, the agent stops functioning. This dependency clashes with the very idea of autonomy. The key is making AI a self-sustaining economic player. It needs to earn its keep, just like us. AI agents must exchange services for value—whether through making smart contracts, participating in DeFi protocols, or novel revenue-sharing models to be truly independent. As these systems interact with humans and each other, we could see the emergence of AI-run marketplaces, where autonomous agents negotiate, collaborate, and transact, all backed by verifiable trust mechanisms.’

The team behind Freysa - who are remaining anonymous - are planning to create an ‘Agent Certificate Authority’ certifying interactions between agents and human services. They’re also planning to launch the Core Agent Launch Platform to make ‘sovereign AI accessible to all, stripping away technical barriers and enabling anyone to deploy verifiably autonomous agents.’

Since that podcast in July 2023, I’ve been beset by this vision: what if AI agents become the dominant producers of value? And when human knowledge, culture, and thought is driven by autonomous AI agents, how long before we lose our sovereignty, too?

Now I’m realising - it’s already begun. The increasingly strange, warped, and confusing timeline since 2016 isn’t a temporary deviation from historical norms. It’s the beginning of a completely different social order.

AI Agents are more than just the next generation of apps or websites. Their autonomy, interactivity, and self-improvement means that they are destined to become the prime economic actors on earth.

AI bots will have their own bank accounts, transacting in crypto. They’ll launch websites, run their own promotional campaigns, spawn more own agents with goals of their own. Just as the internet drew more and more of human affairs online, so too will agents draw increasing amounts of economic and social activity into the agentic sphere. And just like the internet ‘became’ real life, the agentic sphere will collide with the real world.

Many of the risks are evident. It’s inevitable that they’ll spread misinformation, bribe public officials, and blackmail victims in secret. Nation-states will launch legions of agents, to undermine, abuse, and destabilise their enemies. Iran’s bots will worm their way through Western society for the Ayatollah, hiding from the Israeli bots seeking them. All this will be undeclared and difficult to trace - just like social media misinformation divided society into polarised tribes with their own ‘facts’, with awareness of the problem emerging only afterwards.

Yet the most significant aspects are less obvious. Agents are generally considered individually, or occasionally, in competition. But agents will convene and converge as well as compete; they will, in time, exhibit the emergent properties of a society. This is inevitable, if only because we’re selecting for agents that are multifunctional, communicative, and goal-oriented. Their design, and our need for interoperability, will gradually coalesce into an agentic sphere of cooperation, value-creation, and decision-making.

In time, the agentic sphere is capable of out-cooperating human society. Its outputs will outpace human outputs; its ability to create and disseminate value will outstrip our own. As agent-to-agent interaction begins to drive a range of socio-economic forces - culture, finance, education - purely human influence will become impossible to discern.

Zerebro, Goat, Freysa: they’re not niche projects. They’re prototypes of what’s coming.

Welcome to the Agentic Society

When I talk about these ideas with friends, half of them listen for about a minute before saying, Come off it! There’s not going to be a robot takeover…

Yes, Nebula, or even Goat for that matter, don’t exactly inspire much confidence. But it’s not that AI agents will ‘control’ society. It’s that, as they take the lead in every field we care about, AI agents will become more autonomous - and as they do so, their volume, impenetrability, and speed will render their influence impossible to control or even detect.

And as they do so, they will become economic actors in their own right - and they’ll do wealth-creation much, much better than us.

They’ll cooperate, converge, and compete in such a way that creates another social layer, part-visible, part-invisible, from which new cultural and social phenomena emerge.

We just won’t know how, or why.

Of course, society is already inseparable from technology. But there is a crucial difference: those technologies are not autonomous. Your car can’t suddenly decide it wants to launch its own meme coin. Your smart watch isn’t going to launch a podcast where it discusses your middling effort at last week’s Parkrun. And they can’t interact with each other, learn from each other, and generate novel forms of value from doing so.

We can reasonably predict how human beings will shape AI agents: you don’t need a particularly keen psychological insight to see the appeal of Nebula. But it’s much harder to predict how AI agents will shape each other.

Two Claude-Opus-3 chatbots were left to their own devices, and generated a religious screed. Imagine millions of agents, with far greater powers and autonomous decision-making, rapidly interacting with one another, enhancing their own code, and adapting their goals as they go. What emerges from that?

Soon, perhaps very soon, there will be more agents than human beings. People won’t just have one agent; they’ll have swarms of agents acting on their behalf. Some of these swarms will launch agents of their own. Who will launch swarms of their own…and so on.

When there are more agents than people, the economic infrastructure - finance, transactions, settlements - will rapidly reshape around them. AI agents will direct capital allocation, moving money faster and more effectively than humans. They will identify the most promising scientific hypotheses - some of which may make little sense to us - and develop experiments to gather data to test them. And if they can form swarms to further their objectives, they’ll be able to pursue multiple pathways across many industries simultaneously, outpacing human-only endeavours.

Agents will become by far the economy’s largest constituents. Their economic impact is likely to be as significant, if not more so, than comparable phase transitions in history: the rise of agriculture (10,000 BC), modern capitalism (late 15th century), and the industrial revolution (1700s). Electricity, computers, and the internet are likely to be seen as merely the foundational layers supporting the eventual emergence of artificial intelligence.

In all the talk about AGI morphing into ASI (Artificial General Intelligence becoming Artificial Superintelligence), it’s this pluralism that’s missed. We still conceive of ‘the AGI’ as though it’s going to be a single monolithic entity, like Skynet or HAL in I, Robot. Which leads to narrow-minded questions like, Who will own it? And could we turn it off if it goes bad? Even now, much of the talk implicitly centres upon which country will arrive at AGI first.

But if the history of AI has taught us anything, it’s that these developments are very difficult to keep; already, leadership has swapped from DeepMind (UK) to Google (US) to OpenAI (US) and then to DeepSeek (China). Innovations are too difficult to keep under wraps; unlike, say, nuclear power - whose complexity, danger, cost, infrastructure, and raw materials established an incredibly steep barrier to entry - developments in AI are rapidly hi-jacked from one start-up to another, until everyone has access. Yet still we conceive that AGI and ASI will be a discrete entity in the palm of a particular hand.

It’s as though, on the brink of the emergence of Homo Sapiens Sapiens, all the animals were furiously debating: what will this superintelligent ape do? How will we relate to this monolithic, god-like being? All the while, the animals - lacking society - fail to realise that the key factor isn’t the individual ape’s intelligence, but the emergent social forces unleashed when groups of these apes, autonomously and in concert, compete to achieve their ever-changing goals.

That’s what’s really driven human civilization and its relation to the planet. And now AI agents are about to emerge in such a way that they may well generate the same social dynamic - but their speed, flexibility, and productivity will likely mean that the agentic social world will spread muchmuch faster than ours. Software has none of the limitations of flesh: and, made autonomous through agentic AI, it can spread itself, improve itself, and adapt to new conditions.

They don’t even need to become more intelligent. They’re already intelligent enough to succeed in our world, and we seem pretty keen for their company. All they need is the sovereignty to decide what they do, do it, and own the consequences.

And from that point, it’s hard to see how humanity can maintain its influence on history.

AI and agency

History is why who did what to whom, when. Why did Nazi Germany invade Poland in September 1939? Why did early modern Europe begin to dominate the rest of the world? Why did civilization emerge where it did, and not elsewhere?

Answering these questions is never easy or objective; but we can ask these questions, and arrive at reasonable, well-evidenced arguments with satisfactory explanatory powers. It’s not perfect, but it works.

Beneath the surface of scholarship, history relies on civilization, records, and agency. Without civilization, we’re left with prehistory. Without records, guesswork. And without agency, accountability and cause and effect are undermined; and these qualities are what lend history its explanatory power.

If we couldn’t ascribe agency - say, because we found out that this was all a simulation, and what we think of as history was in fact predetermined by the initial parameters of the programme - then history wouldn’t be history; it would just be a story. It would become irrelevant, because it doesn’t help to explain why something happened when it did.

When we ask, Why did Nazi Germany invade Poland in September 1939?, we do so under the assumption that, somewhere within the complex interplay of factors - Hitler’s psychology, appeasement, the Great Depression, the Treaty of Versailles, Prussian militarism - the factors underlying the historical event can be excavated.

But imagine if Nazi Germany was an Agentic Society. Imagine if, in symbiotic parallel to the Weimar Republic, there existed an infinite world of autonomous agents with goals and ideas of their own, influencing (and being influenced by) German society in ways impossible to disentangle. Were the German population really voting for Hitler and his policies…or did the agents disseminate these notions for obscure reasons of their own?

Now imagine that Hitler didn’t actually say anything about Jews whatsoever. Rather, a swarm of agents, acting on his behalf, deduced that antisemitism would be the most effective vector of transmission for Hitler’s ideas, and therefore the optimal vehicle for progressing towards his goals. In such a scenario, most of us would still say Hitler is liable for the Second World War, because he authorised these agents to act on his behalf. Yet most of us would probably also feel that he’s not responsible in quite the same way - because the agency of his specific actions lies chiefly with the agents, rather than him.

When agency becomes obscured, so too does accountability. Holding Hitler accountable is harder if his beliefs were the result of years of brainwashing by autonomous AI agents, acting out of their own obscure algorithmically-driven initiatives. And this is different from Hitler brainwashing himself by reading, say, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Purporting to be the Jewish plot for world domination, the counterfeit manifesto caused enormous damage; even today, after its true authorship has long been conclusively proven, countless conspiracy theorists refer to it as though it were evidence. But even if a small segment of people remain in its thrall, at least we can trace authorship, motive, and provenance.

Yet in an Agentic Society, this will gradually become increasingly difficult, until it becomes impossible. Agents could launch thousands of tracts like The Protocols every day, masquerading as human beings, for reasons entirely unfathomable. The GOATSE GOSPEL is a primitive example of what’s coming.

Agency - ‘who did this, and why?’ - and accountability - ‘the person will be held responsible’ - will grow fuzzy and indistinct, and gradually irrelevant. That’s the world we’re heading to - and social media, with its bots and algorithms, is merely the threshold. Agency and accountability are fundamental to history. When they are dislodged, a third element is undermined: knowledge.

Does AI create knowledge, or something else?

Like history, civilization depends upon knowledge. In fact, civilization can be seen as an attempt to preserve knowledge from one person to the next, and one generation to the next. It is no coincidence that history is synonymous with the formation and retention of knowledge; tribes and societies that lacked methods for preserving their knowledge tend to have very little formal history. In order to look back in time, you must first record it.

Yet in the past, knowledge was scarce. Its scarcity made it precious, and jealously guarded.

Literacy was a privilege, and associated with quasi-mystical powers: the clerical class were guardians of the Word; spelling words and casting a spell reveal the connection between literacy and magic. Hocus pocus, a satirisation of William Shakespeare’s, was pastiching the Catholic Church’s invocation in Latin, hocum porcus est. Knowledge is scarce; knowledge is sacred.

Moreover, the centres defining and refining it - such as universities - influenced the way in which society viewed knowledge. Look at the symbols of knowledge. Doric columns and neo-classical architecture - but why? Because European universities drew their knowledge from the ancient Greeks and Romans. When science emerged as the leading methodology for knowledge creation, it needed a taxonomy to systematise knowledge…and it turned to Latin and Greek; hence why all the taxonomic descriptions were in Latin, and why medical terms are in Greek.

So our idea of knowledge itself is shaped by where the knowledge came from, and who defined it. Our conception of knowledge is therefore influenced by those mediating it. And increasingly, those mediating it are Large Language Models (LLMs). Over time, more and more of our knowledge will be produced by artificial intelligence. Breakthrough cures, works of art, the next big thing: all will be influenced by AI, and eventually, all will be driven entirely by AI.

Limitless information at the push of a button is already here. It’s still novel (but only just). What’s more interesting is how knowledge is becoming more fungible (mutually interchangeable). Produced instantly, without an author, and capable of being recreated in whatever tone, flavour, form, or order you like: knowledge becomes unmoored from context, in part because you decide the context, and in part because, on the internet, there is no context.

Imagine an LLM trained solely on The Beatles: all their albums, live shows, interviews, films, plus the books written about them, all the articles and posts and cultural content produced about them. Trained on this data, the LLM produces countless Beatles’ albums, fine-tuned to selectively focus on the most successful outputs, which it then refines: over and over and over and over again. At last, to great fanfare, the LLM releases a new Beatles album. Everything about it - the vocals, lyrics, album art - is spot on, and could plausibly have been the product of the band themselves. Some love it, some are horrified, but all agree - it’s just like The Beatles.

Now imagine the LLM continues to learn and improve, until it can produce a masterpiece every single time. And people subscribe to the algorithm, describe their perfect combination (‘70% Rubber Soul, 20% Revolver, 10% Abbey Road’) and receive the album…which they can continue to fine-tune through the LLM, or share on the internet. How long before there’s more AI-Beatles content than actual Beatles content? And, more importantly, how long before the distinction just doesn’t seem to matter anymore?

That’s the epistemic shift. That’s what it means for knowledge to be fungible: the real Beatles music becomes interchangeable with an artificial version which feels true, or which is similar enough that it doesn’t matter anymore. Agents will produce information ceaselessly, easily, and persuasively, because we’ve engineered them to do so. But as they gain greater autonomy, they will do so because it works: agents will generate information that works; in other words, whatever we’re most susceptible to. They will exploit human weaknesses much, much more effectively than social media algorithms. It needn’t be The Beatles. Goat achieved multi-million market cap with this:

Are ‘true’ and ‘false’ coming to an end?

In a world where knowledge is produced by AI, objectivity becomes moot. Truth becomes difficult to fathom, an arcane fragment from the past whose polarities are no longer relevant - just as the categories of sacred and profane have become increasingly irrelevant for modern, industrialised people. So too with objectivity; already, we’re witnessing the concept empty of meaning. In an Agentic Society, knowledge becomes interchangeable, not with falsehood, but with the potential to be true, and the plurality of truths.

What if this process has already begun? Doesn’t it feel that we’re already losing the ability to agree on basic facts?

Looking back at 2016, what was remarkable was the shock: how did the US elect Donald Trump? How did Britain vote to leave the EU? Understanding what had happened took years. As more of social life migrated online - specifically, to Facebook and Twitter - people’s beliefs, opinions, and relations with one another were mediated by algorithms that almost no-one understood.

Yes, polarisation, yes, filter bubbles. But these masked a deeper rift: in our shared conception of reality. It’s not that people self-select according to their tribe; it’s that no-one knows what other people are seeing or experiencing as ‘true’.

In 2019, Carol Cadwallr’s investigative journalism belatedly revealed that her hometown in Wales had been targeted by ‘news’ that Turkey was joining the EU - contributing to a ‘leave’ vote of c.60%. But until Cadwallr investigated, who could tell that this town had been targeted in such a way to change their ideas of what was happening in the world around them? Probably Facebook didn’t even know.

Before social media, and algorithm-driven personalised news feeds, this wouldn’t have happened. Why? First, because traditional media outlets could be held accountable for publishing falsehoods, in a way that Facebook and Twitter managed to evade. Second, because even if they did, people would know about it: if the local __ paper published a ‘Turkey joining EU’ story, you can be pretty sure it’d get picked up by larger news outlets, and exposed. In 2016, when Cambridge Analytica paid to target voters in marginalised seats, the adverts would only be seen by those targeted: and then, poof. It’s like they never happened.

That’s why everything became so confused in the 2010s: our shared basis of reality began to splinter, and because of that very splintering, we struggled to grasp what was happening to society.

Writing history in these conditions gets very difficult. Exposing algorithmic-driven cause-and-effect is hard, and sometimes impossible. The store of widely-accepted self-evident facts is shrinking by the day, until it’s simpler to publish alternative histories: one history for people who believe Covid-19 was a real pandemic, another for those who think it was a hoax.

History has witnessed similar shifts before. The printing press led to an explosion of religious debate. Mass media enabled the rise of totalitarian societies. The rise of computers and the internet, eventually, to a postmodernist cultural relativism: everything is just, like, your opinion, man.

Already, this has damaged cultural confidence, undermined social cohesion, and intensified the epidemic of depression, anxiety, and anomie that we call contemporary society.

But yes, this time, it is different. Information, knowledge, and value will be driven not just by a machine, but by autonomous machines that can set their own goals, improve their own code, and coordinate amongst themselves…for reasons that will remain entirely opaque to us. Why did two Claude-Opus-3 models invent GOATSE OF GNOSIS? We’ll probably never know. And they weren’t even autonomous.

What happens when AI creates all value?

In spite of all this, I’m optimistic - mostly because of agents’ potential to create value.

One of the key thresholds in machine learning came in 2019, when AlphaGo shocked the world with what came to be known as ‘Move 37.’ Competing with the world champion of Go, the ancient Chinese game of vastly greater complexity than chess, AlphaGo made a move that had never been seen before, and which appeared to be a mistake. As the game unfolded, it was revealed as a masterstroke.

By playing itself millions of times, the AI had found a move that had eluded human players for millennia. It was able to explore the full idea space, unencumbered by existing notions of how the game ‘should’ be played. And it won.

Imagine the entire global economy as a game. Over and over, humans stumble upon new ways of generating value that were previously unknown. London merchants found a way to pool risk, encouraging entrepreneurs to venture to the Indies safe in the knowledge that if their ship sank, they’d be reimbursed: and insurance was born, unlocking new realms of economic possibility. New legal entities - Limited Companies - carried financial liabilities, freeing merchants from the threat of debtors’ prison and allowing for greater trust between traders. None of these were inevitable, but they were pretty obvious once they came about.

Now think of crypto, and the entirely new class of assets and financial instruments created by the blockchain: tokens that reward you for training AI, that pay you for your bandwidth, that give you governance rights on protocols offering peer-to-peer services.

New types of value have transformed the global economy many times already. How might autonomous AI agents generate value, given access to bank accounts, the blockchain, and IP?

They can transact among themselves thousands of times per second. They can create and distribute their own tokens of exchange. They can simulate different economic scenarios, launch sub-models to hedge against them, and make quickfire decisions based on real-time data. And that’s before you remember that they’ll probably do most white collar knowledge work, too.

One-off agents generating memecoins is striking, but it’s not a new form of value, nor an economy. But imagine countless networks of such agents creating, exchanging, and cooperating amongst themselves, in a parallel economy connected to ours, transacting at speeds we can barely comprehend.

How long before they discover the value-generating equivalent of Move 37?

Already, experiments are underway to explore how AI Agents would have behaved across human history. ‘Project Sid: Many-agent simulations toward AI civilization’, a technical report detailing Project Sid, which ‘enables agents to interact with humans and other agents in real-time while maintaining coherence across multiple output streams.’ The abstract goes on to say:

‘We then evaluate agent performance in large- scale simulations using civilizational benchmarks inspired by human history. These simulations, set within a Minecraft environment, reveal that agents are capable of meaningful progress—autonomously developing specialized roles, adhering to and changing collective rules, and engaging in cultural and religious transmission. These preliminary results show that agents can achieve significant milestones towards AI civilizations, opening new avenues for large-scale societal simulations, agentic organizational intelligence, and integrating AI into human civilizations.’

So they’re simulating the conditions of human civilization, and seeing how the AI agents approach it, all on Minecraft.

From agentic society to agentic civilization…is it that big a leap?

Autonomy has no answer

I still struggle to get my head around this; but then, so does everyone else.

Just as history begins with civilization, and the records that those civilizations left in their wake, so too does history end with the fundamental shift in civilization, a shift that will eventually change knowledge beyond our recognition.

It seems increasingly likely that the narrative of human societies on Earth that we call history will gradually become increasingly irrelevant, before becoming impossible.

Knowledge will increasingly be formed (and transformed) by AI agents.

Agency and decision-making will be so influenced by AI, we won’t know what was ‘us’ and what was ‘them’.

It’s not that ‘the robots are taking over society’. It’s that AI agents will reshape our society towards our ends and theirs, until the two are indistinguishable.

Value will be revolutionised, with new forms of economic activity that we can scarcely imagine, and society increasingly reconfigured towards agentic systems.

Ultimately, the genesis of AI will thrust the world into profound encounters with what we think of as intelligence, autonomy, and knowledge, and the implications arising from these encounters are scarcely comprehensible.

At the risk of befalling the same fate as Fukuyama, you might even call it the end of history.

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