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Cross-chain Liquidity: The Next Iteration of Perp DEXs
June 05, 2024
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Key Takeaways

  • Derivatives in DeFi have shown significant growth, but the proliferation of new perp DEXs has led to fragmented liquidity across various DEXs and chains.
  • Vertex, known for its vertically-integrated DEX that includes spot, perpetual, and integrated money markets, is now tackling cross-chain liquidity fragmentation through horizontal integration with the launch of new Edge instances.
  • Vertex's integrated offerings and cross-margined account structure amplify the benefits of new instances: native cross-chain spot trading, optimized cross-chain basis trading, consistent interest rates, reduced bridging friction, and more.
  • Edge transforms the typical subtractive creation of new protocols on new chains, which fragments liquidity, into a synergistic, value-additive endeavor, which is groundbreaking for a multi-chain future.

The DeFi space has witnessed an impressive proliferation of perpetual decentralized exchanges, with over 150 different derivatives protocols spanning multiple blockchain networks. This rapid expansion, driven by the strong product-market fit of perp DEXs, has led to fragmented liquidity across various DEXs and chains, presenting a challenge for traders and investors. TVL in DeFi derivatives has surged from $1.8 billion to $3.4 billion since the beginning of this year, highlighting the increasing adoption and demand for these products.

Vertex, known for its vertically-integrated DEX that includes spot, perpetual, and integrated money markets, is now tackling cross-chain liquidity fragmentation through horizontal integration. Vertex Edge, Vertex’s latest product, addresses this by offering synchronous orderbook liquidity, effectively unifying liquidity across different chains. Essentially an enhancement to the Vertex sequencer, Edge extends its capabilities to operate across any supported ecosystem. To fully appreciate Edge's potential, let’s revisit Vertex’s architecture and understand how this upgrade integrates into its existing framework.

Vertex Overview

Vertex employs a hybrid orderbook AMM design. Its trading and risk engine, which encompasses all Vertex products such as spot, perpetuals, and money markets, operates onchain and is governed by smart contracts on Arbitrum. Meanwhile, the sequencer, acting as a high-performance orderbook that matches inbound orders from the protocol layer, operates offchain. This creates a hybrid model where the sequencer handles trade ordering and routing. In this system, the onchain AMM's pooled liquidity complements the bids and asks on the Vertex orderbook, serving as an additional market maker via smart contracts. The AMM liquidity is merged with liquidity from automated traders through the sequencer, providing users with a unified liquidity source. The sequencer ensures trades are filled with the best available liquidity, simultaneously utilizing limit orders and liquidity provider positions.

If the sequencer fails, the DEX defaults to a traditional xy=k model, ensuring the onchain AMM continues to function as the protocol's fallback, a mode referred to as "Slo-Mo Mode."

This liquidity model offers several clear advantages. Firstly, it guarantees more consistent liquidity since the DEX can always rely on the AMM when orderbook depth is insufficient. This makes it easier to bootstrap markets with passive AMM liquidity while still allowing for customization through limit orders on the orderbook.

Additionally, projects like Elixir facilitate easy liquidity deployment across orderbook exchanges. Users can select a pair to provide liquidity, and the protocol automatically deploys this liquidity through automated market making strategies. Currently, Elixir enhances orderbook liquidity on Vertex with 23 perp liquidity pools, adding $13.9M to Vertex’s orderbook on Arbitrum. Moreover, there are five additional pools providing spot liquidity, currently with $17.5M in TVL for Vertex.

As of now, Vertex presents a total cumulative volume of $88.72B and a user base of 26,650, with $81.37B coming from perpetuals trading. Over the past month, the total average daily trading volume for both perp and spot markets has averaged around $280M, and the TVL in money markets stands at $96.79M. Vertex gained significant traction during its initial incentives and token launch, capturing considerable market share in the perps market. Shortly after it declined as expected through the exit of mercenary liquidity, but since then, it has maintained a steady market share of around 7%, as illustrated in the chart below.

The Sequencer Orderbook

The Vertex sequencer is a custom, parallel EVM implementation of an offchain orderbook and trading engine built in Rust. Currently, the sequencer operates as an independent offchain node, with plans to decentralize it via Vertex governance in the future. The orderbook is a key feature that sets Vertex apart as a high-performance perp DEX. Compared to the onchain latency of distributed node consensus, it achieves average order-matching execution speeds of 5-15 milliseconds and supports 15,000 transactions per second (TPS), making it competitive with centralized exchanges. It complements the Vertex AMM by providing a low-latency, central-limit orderbook (CLOB) for traders who want to place limit orders, engage in faster trading, and execute automated strategies. Pairwise LPs from the AMM contribute to the orderbook, enhancing its liquidity.

Several important properties are worth highlighting. The sequencer protects traders on Vertex from validator MEV on the underlying blockchain, as validators cannot order or front-run transactions. Additionally, due to the millisecond-level operation of Vertex’s sequencer, MEV extraction becomes less attractive. It is important to note that while the sequencer is offchain, it does not have custody over user assets—custody is managed by smart contracts on the underlying chain. Furthermore, the sequencer cannot censor transactions, halt trading, or block withdrawals. Although certain trust assumptions are necessary, specifically, that the sequencer operates impartially and does not favor any entities, the ability to avoid MEV concerns can be a significant advantage.

Cross-Margined Accounts

A key advantage of Vertex is the capital efficiency enabled by its cross-margined accounts. By default, Vertex consolidates a user's liabilities across their trading account to offset margins between positions, meaning a user’s entire portfolio serves as collateral for multiple open positions. While cross-margined collateral has become more common on perp DEXs, Vertex takes it further by allowing multiple types of positions, including lending and spot positions, to collectively serve as margin. Additionally, Vertex employs portfolio margining, which means that unrealized profits can be used as margin for existing or new positions, further enhancing trading flexibility and efficiency.

In practice, this means that accounts generally have lower margin requirements compared to having the same positions in separate, isolated margin accounts. Vertex also features an automatic risk management system that helps traders avoid liquidations. It automatically calculates and transfers margin between open positions to maintain the required margin levels, which is particularly useful in volatile market conditions and when executing complex trading strategies.

In addition to improving capital efficiency, cross-margined accounts on Vertex enhance practicality and reduce costs for common strategies like basis trading. With linked spot and perpetual markets, Vertex offers native markets for basis trading, which is typically more capital-intensive on other exchanges due to the need for separate markets for perpetual and spot positions. For example, if you are long spot ETH on Binance and short ETH, you must maintain the full margin for the perp contract since it doesn't account for the offsetting spot position. Vertex’s onchain risk engine recognizes this redundancy, significantly reducing the margin requirement for the ETH perpetual position, making arbitrage trading more capital-efficient. Additionally, Vertex’s integrated money market allows assets to serve as both collateral and available for borrowing to leverage spot positions. This closely aligns the basis rate with the borrowing rate of stablecoins.

These advantageous arbitrage conditions on Vertex have the potential to generate greater trading volumes and improved liquidity, as traders can execute profitable basis trade strategies with leverage and lower margin requirements.

Vertex’s Portfolio Overview provides easy access to overall portfolio health and risk indicators, streamlining management for multiple open positions. All positions are linked and managed together, offering a comprehensive view of a trader’s risk. An account’s health is determined by assigning weighted values to each balance and position. Vertex simplifies risk management by distinguishing between Initial Health and Maintenance Health. When Initial Health is depleted, the account enters Maintenance Mode, preventing new risk-taking actions like opening new positions. The remaining Maintenance Health acts as a buffer, allowing users to de-risk before facing liquidation. If Maintenance Health is fully depleted, the account becomes susceptible to liquidation.

In determining an account’s health, certain special cases can offer significant benefits to traders. As always, the devil is in the details. Spreads, which involve offsetting positions on the same underlying asset, are inherently less risky than individual spot and perpetual positions. Recognizing this, Vertex assigns health benefits to these spread positions, enabling a much larger capital efficiency.

Key Details

Liquidations

Spot oracle prices are utilized for liquidations, ensuring robust pricing and shielding users from temporary liquidity shortages that might affect spot prices. Additionally, an independent oracle price is in place for USDC, enabling accurate health calculations and trading even during USDC de-pegging events. Vertex Protocol adopts a multi-oracle approach, gathering prices from various providers. Presently, most Vertex markets rely on Stork, but the recent deployment of Chainlink Data Streams on Vertex initially supports ETH markets, with plans to expand to other markets.

Any user can buy assets from the liquidating account at a discount or settle its debts at a premium until the account's Initial Health surpasses zero. If an account's Initial Health exceeds zero at any point during the liquidation process, the liquidation halts.

Vertex Protocol earns 25% of the profits generated by liquidators, with these fees going to the insurance fund to safeguard protocol health. In the event of insolvency, the account's positions are exited at a loss, resulting in bad debt. Vertex's last lines of defense are then activated: USDC from the insurance fund is allocated to the insolvent account to compensate liquidators for undertaking the underwater positions. If the insurance fund is depleted, losses from underwater positions are distributed among other perpetual accounts in the market. If this isn't feasible, losses are spread across all USDC holders. Currently, the Insurance Fund holds 1.26M USDC on Arbitrum and 0.12M USDC on Blast, totaling approximately 1.4M USDC to offset bad debt. 

Fees

Vertex offers a competitive trading fee model, featuring low fees for takers and zero fees for makers across spot and perpetuals. The current taker fee structure entails a 2 bps fee for takers, applied only after a certain minimum order size. This effectively yields a total fee rate potentially smaller than 0.02%.

Supplementing this model is the Vertex Maker Program, which incentivizes price makers with a rebate-based trading fee program and VRTX token incentives based on a scoring function prioritizing market support, uptime, and fees. All trading fees are paid in USDC, initially allocated to secure the protocol, fund ongoing expenses, seed VRTX liquidity, and drive value to the VRTX token via tokenomics mechanics. Additionally, Vertex charges a flat fee in USDC for interactions with the Sequencer to cover gas costs, with fees subject to change over time but expected to remain relatively stable within months of launch (e.g. 1 USDC for submitting a liquidation or minting/burnin LP tokens). 

The cross-chain fee accounting model maintains the same fee structure while distinguishing between fee payouts for cross-chain versus single-chain scenarios. In a cross-chain order match between two instances, the taker fee is charged on the taker chain, and the maker rebate is charged on the maker chain. In the Edge ecosystem, takers generally incur a 2bps fee and makers receive a 0.5bps rebate. So, in a cross-chain match between a taker on Blitz and a maker on Vertex, the taker fee on Blitz is 1bps, the maker rebate on Vertex is 0.5bps, and the fee accrual for Vertex is 0.5bps. This structure ensures that revenue accrues to the maker chain, keeping makers incentivized through token rewards and rebates. If the taker and maker are on the same chain, the taker fee is 1.5bps, with a 0.5bps fee accruing to the same chain.

UX

Vertex's 1-click trading (1CT) feature replicates the ease of trading on centralized exchanges, allowing users to opt-in while retaining manual signing as the default mode. 1CT simplifies trading by generating a secure private key for automated transaction signing, requiring two signatures upon activation. Users must confirm ownership at the start of each session, and 1CT enables trigger orders for uninterrupted trading. Vertex supports stop market, take profit, and stop loss orders (excluding stop limit), with trigger prices based on Mark Price or Last Price for the entire position size. Partial position orders and advanced trading strategies like TWAPs or scale orders are currently unavailable.

Vertex Edge - Cross-chain Liquidity

Vertex Edge introduces cross-chain liquidity through a synchronous orderbook, consolidating liquidity from various instances and settling transactions onchain at the source base layer. This extension of the sequencer's capabilities broadens its reach across supported base layer ecosystems, with the sequencer's state sharded and updated across all chains. Inbound orders from each chain are aggregated and matched against the total liquidity pool, with the sequencer (Edge) automatically hedging and rebalancing liquidity between chains. Essentially, Edge operates as a virtual market maker, focusing on resting liquidity (maker orders) across sharded states of Edge instances, while taker orders are submitted directly to Edge's unified liquidity layer from independent instances.

This innovation opens up possibilities for accessing unified liquidity on any chain. It's particularly beneficial for launching new perp DEXes on different early-stage chains, eliminating the need to attract liquidity initially, crucial for competitive price execution. Blitz on Blast, the inaugural instance by Vertex Edge, illustrates this transition: initially, volume predominantly stemmed from Edge, and is gradually drawing liquidity from the chain (Blast) over time. Since March 13th, shortly after Blitz’s launch on Blast, until May 22nd this year, Edge has contributed to 62% of Blitz’s maker volume. For total maker and taker volume, Edge’s contribution is 27%. As illustrated in the chart below, the trend indicates an increase in direct volume from Blast.

With each new Edge instance, benefits extend to both the new and existing instances. Increased liquidity in one instance translates to more liquidity available across all existing ones. Liquidity from non-Arbitrum instances, like Blitz, merges into a synchronous orderbook, combining liquidity from Vertex on Arbitrum and Blitz on Blast. Deploying on more chains adds liquidity rather than fragmentation, enhancing usage across all chains and providing value to apps on other chains. The chart below illustrates how Vertex, despite having more established liquidity, is progressively benefiting from Edge’s cross-chain liquidity.

It's crucial to highlight that matched orders are settled locally onchain to the user's origin chain, ensuring a net-positive impact on the local chain's blockspace demand. Each Edge instance showcases the combined orderbook liquidity of all interconnected chains on the app's trading interface, allowing access to this shared liquidity from any base layer.

Up next is Mantle, slated to receive its own Edge instance. With a TVL of $331.57M, approximately 11% of Arbitrum's TVL, Mantle stands to benefit significantly from access to deeper liquidity than currently available onchain. This expansion allows Mantle to accommodate a much broader user base.

Recently, the team unveiled plans to launch an Edge instance on Botanix, the Spiderchain EVM L2 on Bitcoin. The Edge deployment on Botanix introduces novel concepts for decentralizing the sequencer, with further details to be disclosed as development progresses. This move expands liquidity availability from Arbitrum and Blast to the Bitcoin L2 ecosystem, potentially bridging these two very separated worlds and catering to diverse user types.

Amplifying User Benefits

Vertex Edge's architecture facilitates multi-chain liquidity sharing through a unified, synchronous orderbook. However, thanks to Vertex's vertically integrated offerings (spot, perpetuals, and money markets) and cross-margined account structure, this entails more than just additional perp DEXs accessing consolidated liquidity. Instead, Vertex's design offers amplified benefits to all users across each instance and underlying network.

Through Vertex's spot market, users will be able to trade native spot assets across chains without needing to access the network of any specific asset. This is a significant step in the roadmap that will be key to reduce friction between networks and bridging risks. With the synchronized orderbook aggregating liquidity, sellers on one chain gain access to buyers on multiple chains, optimizing market depth and potentially reducing slippage.

Additionally, Vertex's cross-margined accounts with spot and perpetual products enhance basis trading opportunities across ecosystems, further optimizing market efficiency through Edge. Unified funding rates on Edge streamline trading, mitigating liquidity fragmentation.

Edge's money markets enable users to maintain collateral on their preferred chain without asset bridging, again reducing friction and expanding collateral options to enhance liquidity and trading efficiency. The synchronous orderbook layer retains Vertex's embedded money markets through cross-margin accounts, ensuring consistent interest rates across chains. This consistency facilitates easier cross-chain spot trading, enabling traders to access assets in different ecosystems without the need for stablecoin bridging, optimizing yields for passive lenders.

App Layer Alignment

Vertex Edge offers three distinct benefits to base layer networks: increased blockspace demand, better onchain liquidity, and reduced development/integration costs. Vertex Edge's batched settlement model increases blockspace demand, as evidenced by Vertex contracts consistently ranking among the top gas spenders on Arbitrum in 2024. This alignment encourages more blockchains to integrate Vertex Edge, possibly offering native incentives such as the Arbitrum STIP.

Edge's cross-chain liquidity access alleviates obstacles for users moving assets between chains, and retaining onchain capital by diminishing outflows seeking better DEX liquidity. Each new chain added to Vertex Edge's network enhances liquidity for all chains, creating a virtuous cycle of growth and liquidity. Additionally, Vertex Edge reduces development costs and resources for launching DEXs on L2s by leveraging existing liquidity, avoiding the need for extensive new technology development and deep liquidity creation.

Implications For The Token

VRTX functions as a utility token within the Vertex ecosystem, providing several benefits to users. It primarily serves as an incentive for the Vertex community, rewarding user activity, efforts, and transaction volume within the Vertex Protocol. These rewards vary based on contributions and commitments, encouraging ongoing participation over the long-term.

Staking VRTX is necessary to join the protocol's incentive program, signaling a user's commitment and adherence to standards. Staked VRTX generates voVRTX, a non-transferable token that acts as a multiplier for incentives, proportional to the staking duration. Users who stake longer (up to 183 days) can earn 1 to 2.5 times more rewards. Besides staking, voVRTX can also be earned through active and consistent participation, making it a comprehensive incentive model. This system encourages continuous contributions, creating a positive feedback loop.

Vertex's primary revenue comes from trading fees, which scale with trading volume. Up to 50% of trading fee revenue, excluding sequencer fees, is allocated to the Protocol Treasury for rewards, with the specific percentage determined each epoch based on the protocol's needs.

Just recently on May 16th, the team announced a VRTX Buyback & Burn program to replace the previous Buyback & Stake, meaning that VRTX purchased with protocol revenue will be periodically sent to a burn address instead of staked moving forward. It is designed to use a portion of retained protocol revenue from the Vertex protocol (e.g., trading fees) to purchase VRTX on a forward-looking basis.

The expansion to other chains through Edge instances is set to generate more trading fee revenue, leading to progressively more VRTX being burnt. With a fixed total supply of 1 billion tokens, and 90.85% of it to be distributed over the five years following the TGE, this supply reduction could drive significant value back to the token. Notably, 34% of the supply is allocated to ongoing incentives to be distributed over the next 6+ years, starting from Epoch 8. As more tokens are burnt due to rising revenue and fewer incentives are given out over time (as per the emission schedule), this could create buying pressure. The portion of revenue allocated to Buyback & Burn will vary based on the protocol's needs.

Risks

Cross-margined accounts offer significant capital efficiency and advantages for strategies like basis trading. However, they also present higher solvency risks compared to isolated margin systems. An example of this vulnerability is the Mango Markets hack in October 2022. Although oracle design and security measures have improved since then, it is important to acknowledge that more complex margin systems can inherently provide more opportunities for exploitation.

The Insurance Fund’s capability to cover bad debt in extreme scenarios must also be monitored. As new Edge instances are launched, it takes time for protocol revenue from liquidations to sufficiently bolster individual insurance funds. However, funds can be utilized where necessary in emergencies and losses can be socialized, resulting naturally in a poor user experience but avoiding protocol insolvency.

The offchain sequencer is a single point of failure, with its consequences increasing with the addition of more instances. This risk is mitigated by the Slo-Mo fallback, which allows trading against AMM liquidity. However, execution in this mode is not as efficient, potentially leading to losses and high opportunity costs, which may not be ideal at times for sophisticated and professional traders.

The perpetuals landscape is highly competitive and liquidity is known to be mercenary, with the current craze for points programs and typical inflationary token rewards making user retention challenging. Nonetheless, Vertex’s market share has remained relatively stable since its token launch, and its ability to expand into multiple protocols with additive liquidity is promising for its future.

Final Thoughts

Vertex Edge’s cross-chain liquidity addresses the growing need to aggregate liquidity in an increasingly fragmented blockchain landscape. As more blockchains (L1s, L2s, L3s) are created, trying to convince users to use one protocol on one network can become futile. Edge embraces the multi-chain future, finding a solution to unify liquidity across chains. By ensuring that deployment on more chains means increased liquidity for every chain, Edge offers a future-proof approach. Edge transforms the typical subtractive creation of new protocols on new chains, which fragments liquidity, into a synergistic, value-additive endeavor. This perspective is groundbreaking for a multi-chain future, allowing users to trade on their preferred chains without missing out on the best price execution and overall trading experience. For anyone who believes in the multi-chain future, Vertex is a standout project in the perps landscape.

App layer alignment with the underlying network means that more blockchains can welcome Vertex Edge into their ecosystems, potentially offering native incentives. This boosts adoption, especially if Edge launches on established networks to leverage local liquidity and users. While competition is stronger on these chains, the value add could be significant.

Low trading costs and increasing liquidity can sustainably attract more volume and drive value to the token. With the initial token phase incentives involving a 7-month lock period concluding soon, and with monthly emissions on a fixed schedule, combined with growing protocol revenue leading to more tokens being bought and burnt, the token could have a clearer path for value accrual.

Finally, improvements to the perp DEX trading UX, including reduced latency and fees, along with deep cross-chain liquidity that Edge offers, are paving the way for perp DEXs to gain market share from CEXs, growing the total market and changing market dynamics.

This research report has been funded by Unlimited Technologies PTE. By providing this disclosure, we aim to ensure that the research reported in this document is conducted with objectivity and transparency. Blockworks Research makes the following disclosures: 1) Research Funding: The research reported in this document has been funded by Unlimited Technologies PTE. The sponsor may have input on the content of the report, but Blockworks Research maintains editorial control over the final report to retain data accuracy and objectivity. All published reports by Blockworks Research are reviewed by internal independent parties to prevent bias. 2) Researchers submit financial conflict of interest (FCOI) disclosures on a monthly basis that are reviewed by appropriate internal parties. Readers are advised to conduct their own independent research and seek the advice of a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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USDC "wins" the Hyperliquid deal by securing dominant distribution and deeper integration into one of crypto's fastest-growing on-chain perpetuals platforms, in exchange for sharing most of the USDC reserve yield (up to ~90%) back with Hyperliquid.
 
Background on the Deal: Hyperliquid had ~$5–6B in USDC deposits (a huge chunk of total USDC supply, often cited around 7–8%). Previously, the interest/yield on those reserves (~$180–250M annually at prevailing rates) mostly flowed to Circle (issuer) and Coinbase (key partner/treasury handler), with little returning to Hyperliquid.
 
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How USDC Wins: 🔑 Key Advantages

Massive, sticky distribution in a high-growth venue: Hyperliquid is a leading on-chain perp DEX. USDC gains preferred status as the quote asset for most trading pairs, reducing friction vs. bridging/swapping other stables. This concentrates liquidity, improves efficiency, and funnels more capital flows through USDC.

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Handshake Wants to Be the Front Door to Bittensor’s Agent Economy

In this Beanstock interview, Harry Jackson of Subnet 58 (Handshake) lays out a thesis that’s worth understanding even if you never buy a single SN58 alpha token. He also explained where Bittensor’s agentic layer is heading.

We wrote the high-value distillation:

The one-line thesis

Handshake wants to be the front door to the agent economy on Bittensor. The Amazon-like gateway where AI agents discover, pay for, and stack together skills from across all 128 subnets.

Why this matters now
  • There’s a critical distinction Harry emphasized: AI is intelligence, but agents need tooling. An LLM without payment rails, plugins, and workflow infrastructure is “a young person trying to cut a tree down with a pen knife.”
  • Agent-to-agent commerce is on the edge of going viral. Harry’s prediction for the tipping point: a woman in her 40s lets her agent do her shopping end-to-end (research, stock check, autonomous payment), posts it to social media, and it becomes the “four-minute mile” moment everyone copies.
  • Bittensor is uniquely positioned because agents don’t care about marketing or pretty UIs. They only care about best-in-class products and services. That’s exactly what Bittensor’s 128 subnets produce.

The product reality (what’s currently shipping)

  • Handshake is live with paying users generating a few thousand USD in revenue as of today. The business model: 2% of every transaction on the platform.
  • The flywheel is Amazon-like: better skills → more agents arrive → providers get distribution → more skills get added → cycle repeats.
  • The headline product on the way is Axiom. This is an agent that trades subnets while you sleep. Built around the realization that what the Bittensor community wants from agents isn’t generic skills; it’s more TAO. Each “hole” they find in the agent becomes a new tradeable skill on the marketplace.

The investment angles (read these carefully)

  • The moat is data, not distribution. Every workflow run by an agent generates failure data, success data, payment data. No outside competitor can replicate that without running the marketplace itself.
  • The metric Harry tells you to judge them on is revenue. Not agent count. Not user count. Revenue, which is publicly visible on-chain via the front page of their site. He’s basically inviting investors to hold him to it.

  • The pitch for emissions: the biggest TAM in Bittensor is the agent market, and Handshake is the most integrated subnet, meaning if Handshake wins, the subnets it routes to all win too. Bullish on agents + bullish on Bittensor = bullish on Handshake by transitive logic.

Where Harry stands on the Conviction

  • On the conviction upgrade and locked alpha: he’s fine with it. Handshake is a revenue-focused company, so locked alpha isn’t a survival issue. He acknowledges it’ll be harder on research-stage subnets that need to raise external capital, but argues most subnet founders are thinking long-term, not short-term extraction.
  • On the broader vibe: he just got back from Bittensor events in Spain and San Francisco. He observed that the overwhelming reality of the ecosystem is people working hard to build the best products. “It’d be a lot easier in some ways to build a company outside of Bittensor.” The only reason to do it on Bittensor is if you actually want the moonshot.

Full interview below:

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🚨The State Of Bittensor (TAO)🚨
Greg Schvey | COO at Yuma Group

Last week at the @YumaGroup Summit I had the opportunity to present on The State of Bittensor. That presentation is in the thread below. If you choose to read it, I'd ask that you keep the following three things in mind:

  1. This is just one guy's view of what was the most relevant for a 25-minute talk; a difficult filter for such a dynamic industry.
  2. The slides were designed to supplement a talk; I've done my best to replicate what I recall of the talk in the accompanying X posts.
  3. The topic of the Summit was "The Tipping Point" - a candid assessment of what could lead to Bittensor's breakout success and what evidence we see of that today - which also thematically anchored this presentation.

Let's dive in:

We are in the most important race in human history – the race for intelligence itself. AI has advanced beyond the point of no return. As an example of what I mean: Ramp is a widely used financial services platform for companies. They looked at spending and revenue across their clients since the launch of ChatGPT: Companies who did not spend on AI have had flat revenue for the last three years. The top quartile of AI spenders have grown revenue by more than 100%.

We are already at the point where investing in AI is a matter of survival. But what exactly are we getting for the hundreds of billions being spent? Right now, its overwhelmingly going to corporations who have repeatedly shown they don’t have our best interest in mind.

 

 

Claude Opus 4.6 – the leading deep thinking model, had a measured hallucination rate of 16% in February. Then, without telling anyone, Anthropic throttled its reasoning – presumably to reduce GPU utilization – and didn’t tell anyone. Hallucinations climbed to 33% - a 98% increase.

They only admitted it after third party benchmarking proved it. And they were still charging everyone at the same price the whole time. Even since my talk last week, they've supposedly been found to be throttling people simply because HERMES.md was in their commits. You may say, "well there are solid open source options..."

 

 

Yes, open source models have gotten very good, but they’re not immune to capture either. Try asking DeepSeek what happened in Tiananmen Square and then let me know if that’s the intelligence you want to trust.

 

 

This needs to be addressed right now or it will be too late. To give you a sense of what I mean, this is a chart of the total annual commits on GitHub. That’s 500% growth since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. From 200M per year to a one billion in 2025. 2026 is on track for **14 billion** The genie is out of the bottle – there is no going back; we are already at the exponential inflection point.

This reminds me of many years ago: Bitcoin shined a light on how much our rights were impacted when we became dependent on private companies to run our day-to-day lives.

Your right to privacy? That doesn’t extend to your bank account. Your "money" is just a ledger at a private company, available for interrogation and suspension at any time. Bitcoin gave us back the sovereignty of our wealth.

Similarly, we’ve depended on things like privacy of our medical records and attorney client privilege for our entire lives. What do you think is going to happen when a private company’s servers are giving you legal and medical advice? Who are you going to trust for that intelligence? The company that lobotomized its top model? The model constrained by the foreign governments? As I said at the beginning, we’re in the most important race in human history and Bittensor well may be our best shot at winning.

 

 

One of the things about having a different model to produce intelligence is it requires an economic system suited to it. Subnets are the intelligence and economic engines that drive Bittensor’s value. That’s why the Summit was themed around The Tipping Point: understanding how subnets can reach breakout success and what we can do to help.

To summarize Bittensor's intelligence economics: miners create intelligence for which they earn subnet tokens. In many cases they sell those tokens to fund operations, putting downward pressure on token prices and decreasing the incentive to mine (similar to bitcoin). In parallel, if that intelligence is being used to generate real world value, one of the parties who benefits from that value (e.g. the Operator monetizing it, institutions using intelligence commodities to advance their research, etc.) can buy the subnet tokens to keep token prices elevated and sustain the miner incentive.

Investors get to participate in this process, often supporting token prices before the commercial value of intelligence is realized, and/or subsequently holding an asset that parties gaining fundamental value from the intelligence (eg Operator or others) will need to purchase at some point in the future if they want to maintain sufficient incentives for the intelligence machine to continue running.

For Bittensor to succeed, this value loop has to work. So, to understand the State of Bittensor, we have to take a look at how that’s going today and what that means for the network overall.

 

 

One of the many unique features of Bittensor is that subnets are native to the protocol. That is not the case on most crypto networks where the true utility lives in smart contracts with no direct tie to network value.

As an example, Polymarket has seen 800% growth in volume this year. Users can bet any arbitrarily large amount of value on Polymarket for a few cents of network fees. There is nothing tying that to value of the network’s native token, which is down 80% over the same period as Polymarket’s amazing success.

 

 

Conversely, Bittensor subnets are intrinsically linked to $TAO. If you want $1,000 worth of subnet exposure, you first need $1,000 of TAO. We analyzed subnet pool data surrounding the announcement of @tplr_ai's recent training run and normalized across them by indexing them to a starting level of 100.

As shown by the orange line, there was no material change in pool size for non-Templar subnets over the observation period. There was however, major inflow into Templar’s pool. Given Bittensor’s unique network model, we saw a direct correlation to the change in TAO price over the same period. As value flows into subnets, the whole network benefits. A rising boat lifts the tide, so to speak.

 

 

That can go both ways. When Sam left, we saw something similar in reverse; as value was exfiltrated from the network, it started in Covenant subnets and dragged TAO down with it. You know what else we saw in the data though? For all of the noise about concerns of Bittensor’s future, the other subnet pools were mostly unchanged.

The event was interesting because it reminded me of the early days of bitcoin: people would say Bitcoin was only used by drug dealers on the internet. I'd stare at them aghast because in the same breath they told me that an open, permissionless network was used to reliably move money anywhere in the world in minutes by the most untrustworthy people on the planet and yet they didn't understand how the technical feat required to achieve that would create tremendous value.

The Covenant situation is similar: people were concerned about the operator's exit, rather than realizing the only reason we care is because a ground-breaking technical innovation was achieved. But even bigger than that: Bittensor has 128 subnets currently, each striving to generate value for themselves and, transitively, the network as well.

 

 

And we’re seeing that occur – Templar was not unique in that regard. The same pattern emerged around the Intel publication on @TargonCompute. The non-Targon pools remained largely unchanged. Targon saw heavy inflows. TAO price climbed with it.

Again: rising boats lift the tide. And there are many boats in Bittensor right now.

 

 

We’re seeing major technical innovations at an increasing rate.

Just a few examples from the last couple weeks:

@QuasarModels just announced a custom attention architecture targeting 5M token context windows.
 
@IOTA_SN9 developed a technique that compresses data flowing between distributed GPUs by 128x with little to no loss in training quality, increasing viability of training large AI models across internet-connected machines worldwide.
 
We're seeing the building blocks start to form whereby competitive large generalized models can eventually be built. In the meantime, we're also witnessing more targeted, niche players start to pull ahead in their respective fields.
 
During the presentation, I gave the example of @resilabsai achieving 90% accuracy on their home valuation model, making it the most performant open source model and quickly approaching state of the art. Quite literally as I was explaining this during the talk, @markjeffrey pointed out they had just achieved 98% accuracy.
 
In the time between when I prepared the presentation and actually presented, they went from best open source to at or near state of the art - only further highlighting the unique value of Bittensor's open, competitive intelligence creation cycle.
 
 
And the tech that’s being built on Bittensor is getting real attention from serious players. Again, just a few examples of many: Harvard partnered with @Chutes on research about AI inference efficiency. Valeo – an auto company with $20B in annual revenue – is working with @natix on an AI model for self-driving cars. @zeussubnet- the weather forecasting subnet, is the only party in the world allowed to use data WeatherXM’s network of global weather sensors for commercial purposes. And there are in fact many subnets already commercializing their intelligence.
 
 
 
Most of us are already aware of Chutes seven-figure ARR, but a few other examples:
 
@LeadpoetAI– which uses their Bittensor subnet to source sales leads, announced earlier this year that they crossed $1M ARR
 
@Bitcast_network– the content creation platform built on their subnet competition – is already operating profitably
 
@lium_io– a hardware subnet – has bought more than 4,000 TAO worth of their token
 
Remember the economic model I outlined earlier; we’re seeing real evidence that it’s starting to work across many subnets. Intelligence built on Bittensor, capturing value in the real economy, and bringing it back into the network.
 
Action shot of this slide courtesy of @Tom_dot_b
 
 
That’s why when we look at Bittensor we like to look at Total Network Value (TNV);
$TAO market cap is only part of the story in Bittensor. TNV = market cap of TAO + market cap of subnets – tao in the pools [as not to double count] The actual value of this network is already higher than most people realize. And notably, subnets make up an increasing proportion of TNV – recently crossing 35% - as value continues to flow into the pools.
 
 
 
Interestingly, we recently noticed a change in TNV: In particular, despite all the volatility in TAO, the dramatic subnet issuance curves, etc. - the combined subnet market cap had been remarkably consistent around $750 million for most of the last year, until recently.
 
It’s nearly doubled over the last few months – a clear breakout in the trend. If you were looking for Tipping Point, it might look something like this...
 
 
 
I hear a lot that that value is relatively concentrated in the largest subnets. And the market cap distribution does indeed reflect that, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
 
 
 
This is the market cap distribution of the S&P 500. Many healthy economic systems tend towards Pareto distributions. And so what if some subnets are worth more? As we showed earlier, this is an ecosystem that will win or lose *together* And we’re seeing that play out every day.
 
 
 
We track announcements of subnets utilizing each others infrastructure and intelligence. Just as an example, we identified at least eight subnets who announced that they use Chutes for inference. But we have dozens of similar examples of cross-subnet collaboration across many subnets like
 
What’s notable about this:
 
1. Collaboration seems to be happening at an increasing pace as subnets continue to mature and build out contiguous pipelines of AI infrastructure
 
2. Keeping money circulating within an economy creates a money multiplier. Capital circulating within a single economy without leaving creates economic value for each party it passes through, without having to bring in new capital. That’s uniquely possible here because of the diversity of infrastructure built on Bittensor.
 
This network is not 128 discrete growth drivers; it’s increasingly functioning as an interconnected graph, which has substantially more stickiness and value And the pace is about to increase dramatically:
 
 
 
We’re starting to see increasing agents operating on Bittensor: subnets mined by agents, subnets operated by agents...
 
Consider the Bittensor value flywheel:
 
-An intelligence goal is established
-Miners compete to achieve the goal
-That produces intelligence
-Intelligence generates value
 
That’s happening today, as we’ve seen earlier in this discussion.
 
As agents get more capable, that flywheel spins faster and faster. Permissionless entry means any agent can compete. Protocol-native economic incentives mean good work gets rewarded. Bittensor is uniquely advantaged for agentic speed over guarded, centralized alternatives with corporate procurement cycles.
 
That also means exploits will be found faster. But, it also means solutions that harden the network against them will be found faster as well.
 
Accordingly the impact of the network primitives – incentives, accessibility, governance, security, reliability, and all the infrastructure we’re building around the network - have an exponentially larger impact. It is critical that we get these right. The time to nail this, is right now. If we don’t someone else will.
 
 
 
The good news is, for now, Bittensor seems to be in the lead The 30-day moving average of Daily active wallets just crossed a record, approaching 10,000 Up 100% just in the last year.
 
 
 
We’re also seeing subnet ownership increasingly diversify and distribute. The median number of holders of subnet tokens at 2,000 is a 10x increase since the dtao launch a year ago. And at Yuma, we spend a lot of effort and resources to help broaden that access.
 
 
 
Yuma currently partners with 16 custodian and wallet providers to bring Bittensor access to the masses As an institutional-grade validator, the relationships and service we offer give them the confidence to make TAO staking available to millions of end users.
 
During the Summit, we announced that BitGo’s clients will now have access to subnet token staking through our partnership, making subnet investing available to customers of one of the world’s largest custodians.
 
 
 
We also help people gain access to subnets via investment vehicles. The Yuma Composite Fund gives investors access to a market-cap weighted portfolio of subnets through traditional investment structures. The Yuma Large Cap Fund gives investors concentrated exposure to Bittensor's largest subnets.
 
Our institutional asset management team handles everything from initial subnet token purchases, to portfolio rebalancing, custody, and reporting. The appeal for institutions is obvious, but even for the Bittensor native, it’s an amazingly simple way to get access to a broadly diversified portfolio, rebalanced regularly.
 
Between the breakout performance of subnets, the attractive staking rewards, and benefits of diversification, the Yuma funds have outperformed TAO materially year to date [as of when the presentation was created] Nearly 3x outperformance relative to TAO.
 
 
 
And last but definitely not least, our subnet accelerator has helped a wide range of companies access Bittensor. We help them acquire subnet slots, design incentives, provide marketing assistance, review pitch decks, make introductions to other investors, etc. At Yuma we deeply believe in the power of subnets and have helped many of the network's leading intelligence providers start and succeed.
 
 
 
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.  This material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or tokens.  Investing in digital assets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal.  Subnet tokens do not represent equity or ownership interests in any entity.  Performance comparisons and index references are illustrative only and not indicative of future results.  Charts and indices are based on methodologies and assumptions that may change and may not reflect actual market conditions or liquidity.
 

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