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đź”® 2025 crypto predictions đź”®
January 14, 2025
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Here are my predictions for 2025.

  1. Total Crypto Market Capitalization Hit $4.5 Trillion

  2. Circle Gets Acquired or Forced to IPO/Go Public

  3. Stablecoin Supply Hit $300B

  4. ICO Platforms Raised More $ Than IDO Platforms

  5. AI Agents Market Cap Hit $50B

  6. Solana ETF Approved

  7. TON and Bitcoin Season 2 (TVL 2x by End of 2025)

 

1. Total Crypto Market Capitalization Hit $4.5 Trillion

As of the time of writing, we’re sitting at ~$3.5T. The basis of this prediction is simple. I’m betting that there’ll be one last leg in the bull market which will happen in 2025 or early 2026.

One of the reasons is that in 2026 Trump will be a lame-duck president and the pro-crypto/Republican effect that will impact the US financial market’s sentiment towards Bitcoin will be reverting to the mean by then. Meanwhile, 2025 is poised to become the year when more US-based institutional players will FOMO into crypto, given that many of them needed more preparation on the regulatory front and couldn’t just jump the gun in the last month of 2024 post-Trump’s victory. On top of that, we have the most successful ETFs ever and MicroStrategy’s contribution to the TradFi (3,3).

$150,000 per BTC will increase the total market cap by $1 Trillion. Not counting all the other altcoins’ contributions to the total industry market cap. $150,000 USD is roughly 1M RMB so maybe there’s some reflexivity there just like $100,000 BTC.

2. Circle Gets Acquired or Forced to IPO/Go Public

Circle is the issuer of the second largest stablecoin in the world, USDC. Despite being the runner-up, it doesn’t enjoy the same business moat as Tether. This is because the primary role of a stablecoin, at least in its current iteration, is as a digital-native eurodollar and shadow bank. Circle, given its tie to Coinbase and its preference for becoming the most compliant, US-first, regulatory-abiding entity, also relinquishes the large majority of its moat as a business.

The company tried going public via SPAC once, and then there was a rumor around its IPO, but I think the year 2025 will finally be it.

There are signs.

  • First, its move to New York is nothing but a branding exercise. I don’t think further explanation is necessary.

  • Second, its partner, Coinbase, is currently worth $66B. Less than 10% of Coinbase's market cap is enough to acquire Circle. The reason why they haven’t done this is to try and get an even better price from the Circle’s team. Cha-Chink!

3. Stablecoin Supply Hit $300B

Stablecoin is crypto’s top PMF. While some might say that it’s no longer nascent, remember that there were people who said that about crypto in 2017. TLDR — stablecoin’s market share as a percentage of the worldwide financial market is still tiny.

Last year I predicted that this number would hit $250B. It didn’t hit my target but the direction is correct. Stablecoin supply went from $136B in January 2024 to ~$200B by the end of the year. In 2025, I predict this trend will continue to rise exponentially and hit $300B. It’s the lowest-hanging fruit that US-based projects will try to expand into, given the incoming administration’s regulatory friendliness, with a stablecoin bill already in the works.

4. ICO Platforms Raised More $ Than IDO Platforms

We’re starting to see the comeback of fundraising platforms such as Echo and Legion. This does not consider the great work that experienced players such as CoinList have been doing. Still sticking to the same theme of a friendlier regulatory environment, I predict that these ICO platforms will raise more capital than IDOs in 2025.

Data from Cryptorank shows:

  • IDO platforms raised $650M+ in 2024, mostly dominated by Jupiter and Fjord.

  • ICO platforms raised $130M+ in 2024, mostly dominated by CoinList.

Echo’s data as of September 2024.

5. AI Agents Market Cap Hit $50B

At this point, you might be tired of hearing another VC pontificating about AI agents. But hey, you’re already here, so…

Ever since GOAT unlocked the imagination of developers, the number of new crypto x AI agents that are conducting interesting onchain experimentation have skyrocketed. Having said that, I do think that this trend will continue into 2025 as it’s the only other “macro factor” other than the institutionalization of Bitcoin.

AI is the only “macro tech” story — and unsurprisingly it’s impacting crypto, specifically on the agentic side because onchain transaction enables developers to experiment with crazy ideas much faster. Without permissionless blockchains, it would take ages for developers to file the necessary paperwork and legality around what they’re trying to achieve.

  • The total market cap of all AI agents is ~$12B.

  • The total memecoin market cap is $110B.

  • The total memecoin market cap excluding DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE is $40B.

I’m predicting AI agents' market cap will do 4x by the end of 2025, surpassing the total market cap of memes excluding the big three.

6. Solana ETF Approved

Solana is also the biggest winner of this cycle. SOL price went from $20 to $200 within six months, and there’s a huge slew of memecoin trading infrastructure, printing 9-figure in annual net profit, built on top of Solana. Think PumpFun, Photon, GMGN, and many more.

“But sir those are all just speculation!” — if this is your gut reaction after reading the last sentence please do some more reflection.

Anyway, on the “real product” side, Solana is also pushing ahead with its PayFi narrative. They’re aware that DeFi is a perpetually onchain game with some offchain components, and that crypto won’t truly become mainstream without more “payment” focus use cases. You can see their initiatives by integrating with a lot of stablecoin providers (PYUSD incentives) and supporting projects that would support further stablecoin growth.

This strategy also aligns with Solana being a relatively US-centric project. Stablecoin is the lowest hanging fruit in Trump’s administration for anything crypto, and one of Solana’s biggest backers, Multicoin Capital, has a very strong friend in the white house. David Sacks, the White House’s AI and Crypto Czar, is one of Multicoin’s first investors (LP).

Thus, Solana has too much political goodwill in the White House, and it would be foolish to not capitalize on this momentum. The most EV+ positive action they can take is by pushing for Solana ETF. With Gensler out of the picture and the increasingly available compliant tools on the Solana blockchain, it shouldn’t be an impossible task. Hint: it will also help a lot with future unlocks ;)

7. TON and Bitcoin Season 2 (TVL 2x by End of 2025)

We had a decent stint of Bitcoin and Telegram/TON ecosystem mania in 2024, but those are quite short-lived. Since Q4, all attention has shifted to AI agents and meme trading instead. However, I do believe that it’s not over for these two ecosystems and what we witnessed last year was simply season 1, the appetizer that will prepare us for the main course in 2025.

At the time of writing, TON and Bitcoin ecosystem hold $270M and $6.5B in TVL respectively. I’m predicting this number will 2x by the end of 2025. Here are a few catalysts:

  • There’ll be an increasing effort in activating the capital currently owned by the OG Bitcoin whales. We’re already seeing an increasing number of protocols, both DeFi and new infrastructure, that are tapping into these cohorts. Ultimately, people want yield, even if their background might be a bit of a hard-money maxi. One of the better ways to convince these maxis is by showing that you don’t need to trust, just verify. The cryptographic technology in our space is already getting there with more tools such as TEE, FHE, and zkTLS potentially enabling new design architecture that will excite Bitcoin OG into participating.

  • Mandatory portco shill: TON is just starting and they’re cooking a lot of stuff. One of them is TAC, a new infrastructure that will make it seamless for users to interact between TON and EVMs. With more of these initiatives coming in 2025, I predict another mania created around TON/Telegram and will propel their TVL even higher.

Honorable mentions:

  1. Restaking-Fi Makes a Comeback. I’m still betting that there will be some ponzinomics created on top of restaking-fi or LRT-fi as restaking protocols are forced to look for ways to enhance their yield.

  2. A Berachain App Creates a New DeFi Ponzinomics. Proof-of-Liquidity will bring experimentation back to DeFi. The key is how to expand this excitement to more than just the DeFi nerds (please don’t be another Curve war).

  3. OP & ARB Lose TVL to New L2s and L1s. New chains such as Movement, Bera, Monad, and others will have more TVL than Optimism and Arbitrum by the end of 2025.

  4. No Significant Stabelcoin Acquisition. After Bridge acquisition by Stripe, the mid curve take is to think that such an acquisition will be a “standard” moving forward. Reminder: Bridge is a unique case (exceptional founder, hard to get licenses, and somewhat of an acquihire) — most stablecoin founders are best serving the eurodollar offshore market.

  5. Move Is The Next Rust. Movement, Sui, and Aptos will lead the way for a new generation of onchain applications. The language and ecosystem will foster its own developer culture, similar to Solana and Rust in the early days.

2025 will be an even more exciting year for crypto.

Now that regulatory concerns are somewhat out of the way, we have a lot of work to do. We're truly in the roaring 2020s (have you seen CES?!), and it would be a shame if crypto is not further integrated with other technologies of this decade.

 

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At this point, you’re the gatekeeper to the digital economy. Everything else follows or fades away once regulations take effect.

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👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
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Jed McCaleb, the co-founder and Chief Architect of the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), remains actively involved with Stellar as of 2025. He continues to serve on the SDF’s board and is recognized as the Chief Architect, helping to guide the technical vision and development of the Stellar network. The SDF, under his and other leaders' guidance, is focused on expanding real-world asset tokenization and aims to power $3 billion in real-world asset value on-chain by the end of 2025.

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Musk Turns On Starlink to Save Iranians from Regime’s Internet Crackdown

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a visionary behind SpaceX, has flipped the switch on Starlink, delivering internet to Iranians amid a brutal regime crackdown.

This move comes on the heels of Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the Islamic Republic cuts off online access.

The former Department of Government Efficiency chief activated Starlink satellite internet service for Iranians on Saturday following the Islamic Republic's decision to impose nationwide internet restrictions.

As the Jerusalem Post reports, that the Islamic Republic’s Communications Ministry announced the move, stating, "In view of the special conditions of the country, temporary restrictions have been imposed on the country’s internet."

This action followed a series of Israeli attacks on Iranian targets.

Starlink, a SpaceX-developed satellite constellation, provides high-speed internet to regions with limited connectivity, such as remote areas or conflict zones.

Elizabeth MacDonald, a Fox News contributor, highlighted its impact, noting, "Elon Musk turning on Starlink for Iran in 2022 was a game changer. Starlink connects directly to SpaceX satellites, bypassing Iran’s ground infrastructure. That means even during government-imposed shutdowns or censorship, users can still get online, and reportedly more than 100,000 inside Iran are doing that."

During the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, Starlink enabled Iranians to communicate and share footage globally despite network blackouts," she added.

MacDonald also mentioned ongoing tests of "direct-to-cell" capabilities, which could allow smartphone connections without a dish, potentially expanding access and supporting free expression and protest coordination.

Musk confirmed the activation, noting on Saturday, "The beams are on."

This follows the regime’s internet shutdowns, which were triggered by Israeli military actions.

Adding to the tension, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people on Friday, urging resistance against the regime.

"Israel's fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,” he said.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch, called on military and security forces to abandon the regime, accusing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a Persian-language social media post of forcing Iranians into an unwanted war.

Starlink has been a beacon in other crises. Beyond Iran, Musk has leveraged Starlink to assist people during natural disasters and conflicts.

In the wake of hurricanes and earthquakes, Starlink has provided critical internet access to affected communities, enabling emergency communications and coordination.

Similarly, during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Musk activated Starlink to support Ukrainian forces and civilians, ensuring they could maintain contact and access vital information under dire circumstances.

The genius entrepreneur, is throwing a lifeline to the oppressed in Iran, and the libs can’t stand it.

Conservative talk show host Mark Levin praised Musk’s action, reposting a message stating that Starlink would "reconnect the Iranian people with the internet and put the final nail in the coffin of the Iranian regime."

"God bless you, Elon. The Starlink beams are on in Iran!" Levin wrote.

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GENIUS Act lets State banks conduct some business nationwide. Regulators object

The Senate passed the GENIUS Act for stablecoins last week, but significant work remains before it becomes law. The House has a different bill, the STABLE Act, with notable differences that must be reconciled. State banking regulators have raised strong objections to a provision in the GENIUS Act that would allow state banks to operate nationwide without authorization from host states or a federal regulator.

The controversial clause permits a state bank with a regulated stablecoin subsidiary to provide money transmitter and custodial services in any other state. While host states can impose consumer protection laws, they cannot require the usual authorization and oversight typically needed for out-of-state banking operations.

The Conference of State Bank Supervisors welcomed some changes in the GENIUS Act but remains adamantly opposed to this particular provision. In a statement, CSBS said:

“Critical changes must be made during House consideration of the legislation to prevent unintended consequences and further mitigate financial stability risks. CSBS remains concerned with the dramatic and unsupported expansion of the authority of uninsured banks to conduct money transmission or custody activities nationwide without the approval or oversight of host state supervisors (Sec. 16(d)).”

The National Conference of State Legislatures expressed similar concerns in early June, stating:

“We urge you to oppose Section 16(d) and support state authority to regulate financial services in a manner that reflects local conditions, priorities and risk tolerances. Preserving the dual banking system and respecting state autonomy is essential to the safety, soundness and diversity of our nation’s financial sector.”

Evolution of nationwide authorization

Section 16 addresses several issues beyond stablecoins, including preventing a recurrence of the SEC’s SAB 121, which forced crypto assets held in custody onto balance sheets. However, the nationwide authorization subsection was added after the legislation cleared the Senate Banking Committee, with two significant modifications since then.

Originally, the provision applied only to special bank charters like Wyoming’s Special Purpose Depository Institutions or Connecticut’s Innovation Banks. Examples include crypto-focused Custodia Bank and crypto exchange Kraken in Wyoming, plus traditional finance player Fnality US in Connecticut. Recently the scope was expanded to cover most state chartered banks with stablecoin subsidiaries, possibly due to concerns about competitive advantages.

Simultaneously, the clause was substantially tightened. The initial version allowed state chartered banks to provide money transmission and custody services nationwide for any type of asset, which would include cryptocurrencies. Now these activities can only be conducted by the stablecoin subsidiary, and while Section 16(d) doesn’t explicitly limit services to stablecoins, the GENIUS Act currently restricts issuers to stablecoin related activities.

However, the House STABLE Act takes a more permissive approach, allowing regulators to decide which non-stablecoin activities are permitted. If the House version prevails in reconciliation, it could result in a significant expansion of allowed nationwide banking activities beyond stablecoins.

Is it that bad?

As originally drafted, the clause seemed overly permissive.

The amended clause makes sense for stablecoin issuers. They want to have a single regulator and be able to provide the stablecoin services throughout the United States. But it also leans into the perception outside of crypto that this is just another form of regulatory arbitrage.

The controversy over Section 16(d) reflects concerns about creating a regulatory gap that allows banks to operate interstate without the oversight typically required from either federal or state authorities. As the two Congressional chambers work toward reconciliation, lawmakers must decide whether stablecoin legislation should include provisions that effectively reduce traditional banking oversight requirements.

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If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

đź”— Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

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Dubai regulator VARA classifies RWA issuance as licensed activity
Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) leads global regulatory framework - makes RWA issuance licensed activity in Dubai.

Real-world assets (RWAs) issuance is now licensed activity in Dubai.

~ Actual law.
~ Not a legal gray zone.
~ Not a whitepaper fantasy.

RWA issuance and listing on secondary markets is defined under binding crypto regulation.

It’s execution by Dubai.

Irina Heaver explained:

“RWA issuance is no longer theoretical. It’s now a regulatory reality.”

VARA defined:

- RWAs are classified as Asset-Referenced Virtual Assets (ARVAs)

- Secondary market trading is permitted under VARA license

- Issuers need capital, audits, and legal disclosures

- Regulated broker-dealers and exchanges can now onboard and trade them

This closes the gap that killed STOs in 2018.

No more tokenization without venues.
No more assets without liquidity.

UAE is doing what Switzerland, Singapore, and Europe still haven’t:

Creating enforceable frameworks for RWA tokenization that actually work.

Matthew White, CEO of VARA, said it perfectly:

“Tokenization will redefine global finance in 2025.”

He’s not exaggerating.

$500B+ market predicted next year.

And the UAE just gave it legal rails.

~Real estate.
~Private credit.
~Shariah-compliant products.

Everything is in play.

This is how you turn hype into infrastructure.

What Dubai is doing now is 3 years ahead of everyone else.

Founders, investors, ecosystem builders:

You want to build real-world assets onchain.

Don’t waste another year waiting for clarity.

Come to Dubai.

It’s already here.

 

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🙏 Donations Accepted 🙏

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below 📲
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

đź”— Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

Or Buy me a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/thedinarian

Your generosity keeps this mission alive, for all! Namasté 🙏 Crypto Michael ⚡  The Dinarian

 

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