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🔼 2025 crypto predictions 🔼
January 14, 2025
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Here are my predictions for 2025.

  1. Total Crypto Market Capitalization Hit $4.5 Trillion

  2. Circle Gets Acquired or Forced to IPO/Go Public

  3. Stablecoin Supply Hit $300B

  4. ICO Platforms Raised More $ Than IDO Platforms

  5. AI Agents Market Cap Hit $50B

  6. Solana ETF Approved

  7. TON and Bitcoin Season 2 (TVL 2x by End of 2025)

 

1. Total Crypto Market Capitalization Hit $4.5 Trillion

As of the time of writing, we’re sitting at ~$3.5T. The basis of this prediction is simple. I’m betting that there’ll be one last leg in the bull market which will happen in 2025 or early 2026.

One of the reasons is that in 2026 Trump will be a lame-duck president and the pro-crypto/Republican effect that will impact the US financial market’s sentiment towards Bitcoin will be reverting to the mean by then. Meanwhile, 2025 is poised to become the year when more US-based institutional players will FOMO into crypto, given that many of them needed more preparation on the regulatory front and couldn’t just jump the gun in the last month of 2024 post-Trump’s victory. On top of that, we have the most successful ETFs ever and MicroStrategy’s contribution to the TradFi (3,3).

$150,000 per BTC will increase the total market cap by $1 Trillion. Not counting all the other altcoins’ contributions to the total industry market cap. $150,000 USD is roughly 1M RMB so maybe there’s some reflexivity there just like $100,000 BTC.

2. Circle Gets Acquired or Forced to IPO/Go Public

Circle is the issuer of the second largest stablecoin in the world, USDC. Despite being the runner-up, it doesn’t enjoy the same business moat as Tether. This is because the primary role of a stablecoin, at least in its current iteration, is as a digital-native eurodollar and shadow bank. Circle, given its tie to Coinbase and its preference for becoming the most compliant, US-first, regulatory-abiding entity, also relinquishes the large majority of its moat as a business.

The company tried going public via SPAC once, and then there was a rumor around its IPO, but I think the year 2025 will finally be it.

There are signs.

  • First, its move to New York is nothing but a branding exercise. I don’t think further explanation is necessary.

  • Second, its partner, Coinbase, is currently worth $66B. Less than 10% of Coinbase's market cap is enough to acquire Circle. The reason why they haven’t done this is to try and get an even better price from the Circle’s team. Cha-Chink!

3. Stablecoin Supply Hit $300B

Stablecoin is crypto’s top PMF. While some might say that it’s no longer nascent, remember that there were people who said that about crypto in 2017. TLDR — stablecoin’s market share as a percentage of the worldwide financial market is still tiny.

Last year I predicted that this number would hit $250B. It didn’t hit my target but the direction is correct. Stablecoin supply went from $136B in January 2024 to ~$200B by the end of the year. In 2025, I predict this trend will continue to rise exponentially and hit $300B. It’s the lowest-hanging fruit that US-based projects will try to expand into, given the incoming administration’s regulatory friendliness, with a stablecoin bill already in the works.

4. ICO Platforms Raised More $ Than IDO Platforms

We’re starting to see the comeback of fundraising platforms such as Echo and Legion. This does not consider the great work that experienced players such as CoinList have been doing. Still sticking to the same theme of a friendlier regulatory environment, I predict that these ICO platforms will raise more capital than IDOs in 2025.

Data from Cryptorank shows:

  • IDO platforms raised $650M+ in 2024, mostly dominated by Jupiter and Fjord.

  • ICO platforms raised $130M+ in 2024, mostly dominated by CoinList.

Echo’s data as of September 2024.

5. AI Agents Market Cap Hit $50B

At this point, you might be tired of hearing another VC pontificating about AI agents. But hey, you’re already here, so


Ever since GOAT unlocked the imagination of developers, the number of new crypto x AI agents that are conducting interesting onchain experimentation have skyrocketed. Having said that, I do think that this trend will continue into 2025 as it’s the only other “macro factor” other than the institutionalization of Bitcoin.

AI is the only “macro tech” story — and unsurprisingly it’s impacting crypto, specifically on the agentic side because onchain transaction enables developers to experiment with crazy ideas much faster. Without permissionless blockchains, it would take ages for developers to file the necessary paperwork and legality around what they’re trying to achieve.

  • The total market cap of all AI agents is ~$12B.

  • The total memecoin market cap is $110B.

  • The total memecoin market cap excluding DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE is $40B.

I’m predicting AI agents' market cap will do 4x by the end of 2025, surpassing the total market cap of memes excluding the big three.

6. Solana ETF Approved

Solana is also the biggest winner of this cycle. SOL price went from $20 to $200 within six months, and there’s a huge slew of memecoin trading infrastructure, printing 9-figure in annual net profit, built on top of Solana. Think PumpFun, Photon, GMGN, and many more.

“But sir those are all just speculation!” — if this is your gut reaction after reading the last sentence please do some more reflection.

Anyway, on the “real product” side, Solana is also pushing ahead with its PayFi narrative. They’re aware that DeFi is a perpetually onchain game with some offchain components, and that crypto won’t truly become mainstream without more “payment” focus use cases. You can see their initiatives by integrating with a lot of stablecoin providers (PYUSD incentives) and supporting projects that would support further stablecoin growth.

This strategy also aligns with Solana being a relatively US-centric project. Stablecoin is the lowest hanging fruit in Trump’s administration for anything crypto, and one of Solana’s biggest backers, Multicoin Capital, has a very strong friend in the white house. David Sacks, the White House’s AI and Crypto Czar, is one of Multicoin’s first investors (LP).

Thus, Solana has too much political goodwill in the White House, and it would be foolish to not capitalize on this momentum. The most EV+ positive action they can take is by pushing for Solana ETF. With Gensler out of the picture and the increasingly available compliant tools on the Solana blockchain, it shouldn’t be an impossible task. Hint: it will also help a lot with future unlocks ;)

7. TON and Bitcoin Season 2 (TVL 2x by End of 2025)

We had a decent stint of Bitcoin and Telegram/TON ecosystem mania in 2024, but those are quite short-lived. Since Q4, all attention has shifted to AI agents and meme trading instead. However, I do believe that it’s not over for these two ecosystems and what we witnessed last year was simply season 1, the appetizer that will prepare us for the main course in 2025.

At the time of writing, TON and Bitcoin ecosystem hold $270M and $6.5B in TVL respectively. I’m predicting this number will 2x by the end of 2025. Here are a few catalysts:

  • There’ll be an increasing effort in activating the capital currently owned by the OG Bitcoin whales. We’re already seeing an increasing number of protocols, both DeFi and new infrastructure, that are tapping into these cohorts. Ultimately, people want yield, even if their background might be a bit of a hard-money maxi. One of the better ways to convince these maxis is by showing that you don’t need to trust, just verify. The cryptographic technology in our space is already getting there with more tools such as TEE, FHE, and zkTLS potentially enabling new design architecture that will excite Bitcoin OG into participating.

  • Mandatory portco shill: TON is just starting and they’re cooking a lot of stuff. One of them is TAC, a new infrastructure that will make it seamless for users to interact between TON and EVMs. With more of these initiatives coming in 2025, I predict another mania created around TON/Telegram and will propel their TVL even higher.

Honorable mentions:

  1. Restaking-Fi Makes a Comeback. I’m still betting that there will be some ponzinomics created on top of restaking-fi or LRT-fi as restaking protocols are forced to look for ways to enhance their yield.

  2. A Berachain App Creates a New DeFi Ponzinomics. Proof-of-Liquidity will bring experimentation back to DeFi. The key is how to expand this excitement to more than just the DeFi nerds (please don’t be another Curve war).

  3. OP & ARB Lose TVL to New L2s and L1s. New chains such as Movement, Bera, Monad, and others will have more TVL than Optimism and Arbitrum by the end of 2025.

  4. No Significant Stabelcoin Acquisition. After Bridge acquisition by Stripe, the mid curve take is to think that such an acquisition will be a “standard” moving forward. Reminder: Bridge is a unique case (exceptional founder, hard to get licenses, and somewhat of an acquihire) — most stablecoin founders are best serving the eurodollar offshore market.

  5. Move Is The Next Rust. Movement, Sui, and Aptos will lead the way for a new generation of onchain applications. The language and ecosystem will foster its own developer culture, similar to Solana and Rust in the early days.

2025 will be an even more exciting year for crypto.

Now that regulatory concerns are somewhat out of the way, we have a lot of work to do. We're truly in the roaring 2020s (have you seen CES?!), and it would be a shame if crypto is not further integrated with other technologies of this decade.

 

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XRP is no longer a speculative digital asset it is now the centerpiece of a rapidly unifying global financial infrastructure, positioned to power everything from crossborder payments and institutional treasury to real world asset tokenization and decentralized liquidity.

Here’s a high-level overview of what’s happening

Ripple has launched its enterprise grade stablecoin RLUSD, which is now live on both XRPL and Ethereum (via burn-to-mint bridging). It’s already being used in DeFi protocols like Aave, integrated into BitMEX listings, and deployed in $25M philanthropic initiatives to showcase its utility, transparency, and real-time settlement capabilities.

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đŸ”čIndustry Impact: The move is seen as a significant milestone for both Ripple and the broader crypto industry. It demonstrates growing institutional acceptance of blockchain-based payment solutions and could accelerate the adoption of digital assets in mainstream financial infrastructure.

đŸ”čPotential...

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Fund Tokenization Prepares Asset Managers for ‘Perfect Storm’

Synopsis:

  • Great Wealth Transfer will see $84 trillion of intragenerational asset transfer over the next 20 years
  • Gen Y and Z investors favor investment in alternative asset types, which tokenization makes more investable for HNW clients
  • Tokenization encourages platform changes, and will ultimately bring additional operational benefits

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With trillions of dollars worth of assets set to flow into the wallets of Gen X, Y, and Z investors, much of which will accumulate onchain, asset managers who move first to serve this new market will gain an advantage in capturing this revenue opportunity. The immediate opportunity is similar to when the ETF format was introduced in 1993, with first-mover State Street launching the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)—now one of the largest ETFs globally. The tokenized asset format is today’s generational opportunity.

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The forthcoming vicennial transformation of the industry will enable it to transform and emerge triumphant. Those at the forefront of this technology evolution stand to dominate and shape the future of asset management.

 

Great Wealth Transfer prompts global investment shake-up

The asset management industry is on the cusp of the largest wealth transfer event ever, set to last for the next two decades. Consulting firm Cerulli Associates estimates $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands as wealth passes from the baby boomer generation to Gen X, Y, and Z investors.

However, the investment behavior of these younger benefactors differs significantly from their forebears in two ways. Holding Web3 wallets and accounts on Robinhood, rather than brokerage accounts like their parents, millennials are opting for a more self-service model in their long-term holdings. Add to that the shift in risk appetite, searching for higher growth through less conventional asset types like private markets and crypto, and the need for the industry to transform quickly is clear.

Whilst the industry is not currently set up to offer this new investor class more customization, as opposed to one-size-fits-all product offerings, an 80% majority of asset managers believe customization for the masses will be an important investment strategy in the next five years.

 
 

                                          Ryan Lovell, Chainlink Labs

 

While asset managers could build their own proprietary blockchain infrastructure and smart contract systems from the ground up, that approach would require significant resources and specialized engineers, extend time to market, and be at higher risk of technical vulnerabilities or implementation errors. On the other hand, fully outsourcing the implementation would leave them with limited roadmap control, interoperability, and customizability, along with dependency risks.

Ryan Lovell, director of capital markets at Chainlink Labs, commented: “That’s why leading asset managers are taking a hybrid approach, leveraging both existing systems and Chainlink’s decentralized infrastructure to implement modular solutions that can scale across multiple blockchains.”

 

Industry transformation through tokenization

The launch of tokenized funds by firms such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity International has created a need for the fund administration industry to evolve to an onchain format. However, nearly all, 93% of fund services firms, have not automated data inputs, data checks, and key workflows, so their operations are still manually intensive, leading to increased operational costs, reduced liquidity, and missed investment opportunities. Standard transfer agent processing can take between one and three days for routine transactions, and between five and seven days for complex cases requiring additional compliance checks, cross-border settlements, or manual document verification.

“Operational efficiency is just the starting point of tokenizing funds,” said Lovell. “The real value is meeting the needs of future investors who are increasingly accumulating wealth across multiple blockchain networks.”

In order to reach this new onchain world, asset managers and their service providers may not want to make a huge investment to completely change their infrastructure, but instead adapt their existing systems to make them compatible with multiple blockchains.

For example, in November 2024, SBI Digital Markets, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink completed the implementation of a tokenized fund to demonstrate how existing fund administration processes can be successfully made compatible with tokenized funds.

SBI Digital Markets, as a custodian and fund distributor, used smart contracts, oracle networks, and multiple blockchains to automate its processes. One of the key components was the digital transfer agent smart contract, which used multiple oracle networks from Chainlink and its blockchain-agnostic architecture to create a unified golden record.

Lovell compared the digital transfer agent to an offchain/onchain coordinator that does everything that a traditional transfer agent does, but in digital form.

“It does not replace the existing system but enables firms to be compatible with blockchain and then offer a service that can scale to all their customers,” he said. “Asset managers should be demanding this from their service providers.”

The pilot showed that a tokenized fund could maintain its share register on one blockchain while using Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to enable the processing of intensive fund lifecycle activities such as subscriptions and redemptions on different blockchains while meeting institutional security and compliance standards.

Swift, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink also settled tokenized fund subscriptions and redemptions using the Swift network, which enables payments with fiat currencies across more than 11,500 financial institutions in over 200 countries.

                                     Winston Quek, SBI Digital Markets

Winston Quek, CEO at SBI Digital Markets, said in a statement: “This new way of launching fund structures and administering them via smart contracts empowers both fund managers and their service providers to deliver new onchain financial products and lower operational costs to investors, both things they are actively looking for.”

In addition to lowering costs, using blockchains increases transparency and allows real-time reconciliation between the fund distributor and the fund issuer. Lovell highlighted that Chainlink can also use the same architecture to enable investors who want to hold tokens that are backed by offchain assets, settle these tokens across any blockchain, incorporate data that is needed to process transactions onchain, such as NAV data, and coordinate payments between distributors and the asset managers.

In the U.S. there are requirements around private and public funds and Chainlink enables asset managers to consolidate and consume onchain record keeping while fulfilling regulatory obligations. U.S. funds also require the distributor to onboard users and buy and sell the fund while the custodian and fund accountant provide reporting data.

“We allow all of those service providers to coordinate outside of their firewalls,” said Lovell. “Chainlink’s goal is to enable the TradFi and DeFi worlds to seamlessly connect, which increases utility.”

 

The Great Wealth Transfer is driving asset management onchain

With $84 trillion set to flow from baby boomers to Gen X, Y, and Z, their demand for alternative asset types and customization will shape the future of asset management. While today’s systems may be prohibitively expensive to offer these benefits at scale, tokenization changes the economics.

Tokenized funds by BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity International have already proven the demand for onchain assets, while a solution by SBI Digital Markets, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink has demonstrated the operational efficiencies of blockchain technology and how onchain assets can be provided at scale.

The choice is clear for asset managers and service providers: embrace the tokenization revolution and lead the next era of finance or risk being left behind. Those who act now will not only gain a first-mover advantage but also shape the future of the industry.

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Stellar's Ecosystem Surges Forward: Smart Contracts, Lightning Speed, and Real-World Impact in 2025

The Stellar blockchain ecosystem is experiencing remarkable momentum in 2025, with groundbreaking technical achievements and expanding real-world adoption that position it as a major player in the decentralized finance landscape. From lightning-fast transaction speeds to innovative smart contract capabilities, Stellar is demonstrating that blockchain technology can deliver both performance and practical utility.

Technical Breakthroughs Drive Performance

The Stellar Development Foundation's Q1 2025 quarterly report reveals impressive technical milestones that showcase the network's maturation. The platform now processes an astounding 5,000 transactions per second with remarkably fast 2.5-second block times, putting it among the fastest blockchain networks in operation today.

This performance leap isn't just about raw numbers—it represents Stellar's commitment to creating infrastructure that can handle real-world demand. Whether it's cross-border payments, asset tokenization, or decentralized applications, the network's enhanced capabilities provide the foundation for scalable blockchain solutions.

Smart Contracts Get Smarter with Soroban

One of the most significant developments has been the launch and continued evolution of Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform. The introduction of Contract Copilot represents a major advancement in developer experience, enabling faster and safer smart contract development through enhanced tooling and guidance.

This focus on developer experience is crucial for ecosystem growth. By lowering barriers to entry and improving the development process, Stellar is positioning itself to attract innovative projects and talented developers who might otherwise choose competing platforms.

New Token Standards Meet Market Needs

The Stellar Development Foundation has introduced new token standards developed specifically based on feedback from developers and institutional users. This responsive approach to platform development demonstrates Stellar's commitment to building technology that meets actual market needs rather than theoretical requirements.

These standards are particularly important as institutional adoption continues to grow, with organizations requiring robust, compliant, and flexible token frameworks for their blockchain initiatives.

Global USDC Integration Expands Utility

The integration of USDC across Stellar's global network represents a significant milestone for practical cryptocurrency adoption. Stablecoins like USDC provide the price stability necessary for everyday transactions and business operations, making them crucial for blockchain platforms seeking real-world utility.

This integration is particularly impactful in emerging markets, where access to stable digital currencies can provide financial services to underbanked populations and facilitate more efficient cross-border transactions.

Industry Events Build Community Momentum

The Stellar ecosystem's growing influence is evident in its presence at major industry events. The foundation's participation as a sponsor at Consensus 2025 in Toronto and Digital Assets Week in New York demonstrates its commitment to engaging with builders, investors, and institutional leaders across the blockchain space.

These events serve as crucial networking opportunities and platforms for showcasing innovative projects within the Stellar ecosystem. Recent Meridian events have highlighted creative projects like Skyhitz and HoneyCoin, illustrating the collaborative spirit and diverse applications being built on the platform.

Real-World Impact in Emerging Markets

Perhaps most importantly, Stellar's growth isn't just about technical metrics—it's about real-world impact. The platform's focus on emerging markets addresses genuine financial inclusion challenges, providing efficient payment rails and access to digital financial services where traditional banking infrastructure may be limited.

This practical approach to blockchain implementation sets Stellar apart from projects that focus primarily on speculative trading or theoretical use cases. By solving actual problems for real users, Stellar is building sustainable demand for its technology.

Looking Ahead: Enterprise-Grade Infrastructure

Stellar positions itself as offering enterprise-grade asset tokenization alongside its DeFi capabilities and payment infrastructure. This comprehensive approach makes it attractive to institutions looking for a single platform that can handle multiple blockchain use cases.

The combination of fast transactions, low costs, smart contract capabilities, and regulatory-conscious development creates a compelling value proposition for enterprises considering blockchain adoption.

The Road Forward

As 2025 progresses, Stellar's ecosystem appears well-positioned for continued growth. The technical infrastructure improvements, developer-focused enhancements, and real-world adoption initiatives create a strong foundation for expanding use cases and user adoption.

The blockchain industry has seen many projects promise revolutionary capabilities, but Stellar's focus on delivering measurable performance improvements and practical solutions suggests a mature approach to blockchain development. With transaction speeds that rival traditional payment systems and growing institutional adoption, Stellar is demonstrating that blockchain technology can move beyond experimental phases into mainstream utility.

For developers, institutions, and users looking for blockchain solutions that prioritize both performance and practical applicability, Stellar's 2025 developments represent significant progress toward a more accessible and useful decentralized financial ecosystem.

Source: The Dinarian ⚡ Claude AI

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Soroban Security Audit Bank: Raising the Standard for Smart Contract Security

The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) is deeply committed to helping ensure that the highest security standards are available for projects building on the Stellar network. Last year SDF launched the Soroban Security Audit Bank, an initiative to provide projects access to auditing experts and tooling that are proven to help prevent hacks by catching potential bugs, inefficiencies, and security flaws before contracts go live. Through the Soroban Security Audit Bank, we’re empowering teams building on Soroban with comprehensive security audits from leading audit firms, enhanced readiness support, and robust tooling, significantly elevating the ecosystem’s safety and efficiency.

Since launch, the Soroban Security Audit Bank has successfully conducted over 40 essential audits, deploying over $3 million to support security of the smart contracts on Stellar. Check it out!

 

Ecosystem Success Stories: How the Soroban Audit Bank Drives Security Forward

By making automated formal verification available to developers, in addition to allocating significant budget for securing many of the top DeFi protocols built on top of Stellar, SDF has established a new security standard in the Web3 ecosystem. –Mooly Sagiv, Co-Founder of Certora
SDF has been a strong partner as we’ve worked with teams across the Stellar ecosystem. SDF’s Audit Bank initiative allows for a smooth and streamlined review process, and is a clear reflection of the Stellar ecosystem’s enhanced commitment to security. –Robert Chen, CEO of OtterSec
 

Leading projects within the Soroban ecosystem have highlighted the impact of the Audit Bank

Finding a good auditor is difficult, expensive, and high-stakes. The Audit Bank streamlines the process and supports ecosystem projects with security review at critical growth milestones. –Markus Paulson, Co-Founder of Script3
The audit firms we worked with deeply understood the full ecosystem and the underlying protocols used. Their expertise and the tools from the Audit Bank strengthened our security and supported user and investor trust. –Esteban Iglesias Manríquez, Co-Founder of Palta.Labs

What's New in 2025: Enhanced Audit Support for Soroban Builders

Teams building financial protocols, high-dependency data services, high-traction dApps funded by the Stellar Community Fund are able to request an audit and will typically be matched with a reputable audit firm within two weeks. We recently restructured the program for this year to enhance audit efficiency and incentivize accountability, and rapid and complete vulnerability remediation:

  • Complimentary Initial Audit: Projects will need to contribute 5% of the audit cost upfront, but this co-payment amount is eligible for a full refund, provided that critical, high, and medium vulnerabilities identified are swiftly remediated within 20 business days of receiving the initial audit report (learn more).
  • Incentivized Security at Key Traction Milestones: Complimentary, extensive follow-up audits are available as projects achieve critical traction milestones (e.g., $10M and $100M TVL). These audits include deeper assessments such as formal verification or competitive audits, significantly boosting project security at pivotal stages.
  • Advanced Security Tooling: Projects can enhance their security self-serve through complimentary or discounted access to specialized tooling, which provide vulnerability detection and formal verification capabilities (see full list of available tooling). These tools are encouraged to capture ‘easy-to-spot’ issues prior to audit as well as a final check post-audit to increase the effectiveness and thoroughness of audits.
  • Enhanced Audit Readiness Support: Projects receive structured preparation support, including the implementation of best practices and security standards based on the STRIDE threat modeling framework. This ensures project teams are thoroughly prepared, optimizing audit efficiency and minimizing delays.

Get Started Today

If you're already funded through the Stellar Community Fund, meet the criteria and ready to secure your smart contracts, check your email for an invitation to submit an audit request–if you haven’t received one, contact [email protected].

If you haven't built on Stellar yet, we encourage you to start your journey with the Stellar Community Fund to become eligible for future security audits and ecosystem support. For any broader questions on the program, contact [email protected].

Also, we’re organizing an exciting series of workshops–join us for the kick-off on Soroban Security Best Practices on Friday, May 30, 2025 at 2 PM ET on @StellarOrg. Together, we're shaping a secure and resilient future for smart contracts on Stellar.

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