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🔼 2025 crypto predictions 🔼
January 14, 2025
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Here are my predictions for 2025.

  1. Total Crypto Market Capitalization Hit $4.5 Trillion

  2. Circle Gets Acquired or Forced to IPO/Go Public

  3. Stablecoin Supply Hit $300B

  4. ICO Platforms Raised More $ Than IDO Platforms

  5. AI Agents Market Cap Hit $50B

  6. Solana ETF Approved

  7. TON and Bitcoin Season 2 (TVL 2x by End of 2025)

 

1. Total Crypto Market Capitalization Hit $4.5 Trillion

As of the time of writing, we’re sitting at ~$3.5T. The basis of this prediction is simple. I’m betting that there’ll be one last leg in the bull market which will happen in 2025 or early 2026.

One of the reasons is that in 2026 Trump will be a lame-duck president and the pro-crypto/Republican effect that will impact the US financial market’s sentiment towards Bitcoin will be reverting to the mean by then. Meanwhile, 2025 is poised to become the year when more US-based institutional players will FOMO into crypto, given that many of them needed more preparation on the regulatory front and couldn’t just jump the gun in the last month of 2024 post-Trump’s victory. On top of that, we have the most successful ETFs ever and MicroStrategy’s contribution to the TradFi (3,3).

$150,000 per BTC will increase the total market cap by $1 Trillion. Not counting all the other altcoins’ contributions to the total industry market cap. $150,000 USD is roughly 1M RMB so maybe there’s some reflexivity there just like $100,000 BTC.

2. Circle Gets Acquired or Forced to IPO/Go Public

Circle is the issuer of the second largest stablecoin in the world, USDC. Despite being the runner-up, it doesn’t enjoy the same business moat as Tether. This is because the primary role of a stablecoin, at least in its current iteration, is as a digital-native eurodollar and shadow bank. Circle, given its tie to Coinbase and its preference for becoming the most compliant, US-first, regulatory-abiding entity, also relinquishes the large majority of its moat as a business.

The company tried going public via SPAC once, and then there was a rumor around its IPO, but I think the year 2025 will finally be it.

There are signs.

  • First, its move to New York is nothing but a branding exercise. I don’t think further explanation is necessary.

  • Second, its partner, Coinbase, is currently worth $66B. Less than 10% of Coinbase's market cap is enough to acquire Circle. The reason why they haven’t done this is to try and get an even better price from the Circle’s team. Cha-Chink!

3. Stablecoin Supply Hit $300B

Stablecoin is crypto’s top PMF. While some might say that it’s no longer nascent, remember that there were people who said that about crypto in 2017. TLDR — stablecoin’s market share as a percentage of the worldwide financial market is still tiny.

Last year I predicted that this number would hit $250B. It didn’t hit my target but the direction is correct. Stablecoin supply went from $136B in January 2024 to ~$200B by the end of the year. In 2025, I predict this trend will continue to rise exponentially and hit $300B. It’s the lowest-hanging fruit that US-based projects will try to expand into, given the incoming administration’s regulatory friendliness, with a stablecoin bill already in the works.

4. ICO Platforms Raised More $ Than IDO Platforms

We’re starting to see the comeback of fundraising platforms such as Echo and Legion. This does not consider the great work that experienced players such as CoinList have been doing. Still sticking to the same theme of a friendlier regulatory environment, I predict that these ICO platforms will raise more capital than IDOs in 2025.

Data from Cryptorank shows:

  • IDO platforms raised $650M+ in 2024, mostly dominated by Jupiter and Fjord.

  • ICO platforms raised $130M+ in 2024, mostly dominated by CoinList.

Echo’s data as of September 2024.

5. AI Agents Market Cap Hit $50B

At this point, you might be tired of hearing another VC pontificating about AI agents. But hey, you’re already here, so


Ever since GOAT unlocked the imagination of developers, the number of new crypto x AI agents that are conducting interesting onchain experimentation have skyrocketed. Having said that, I do think that this trend will continue into 2025 as it’s the only other “macro factor” other than the institutionalization of Bitcoin.

AI is the only “macro tech” story — and unsurprisingly it’s impacting crypto, specifically on the agentic side because onchain transaction enables developers to experiment with crazy ideas much faster. Without permissionless blockchains, it would take ages for developers to file the necessary paperwork and legality around what they’re trying to achieve.

  • The total market cap of all AI agents is ~$12B.

  • The total memecoin market cap is $110B.

  • The total memecoin market cap excluding DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE is $40B.

I’m predicting AI agents' market cap will do 4x by the end of 2025, surpassing the total market cap of memes excluding the big three.

6. Solana ETF Approved

Solana is also the biggest winner of this cycle. SOL price went from $20 to $200 within six months, and there’s a huge slew of memecoin trading infrastructure, printing 9-figure in annual net profit, built on top of Solana. Think PumpFun, Photon, GMGN, and many more.

“But sir those are all just speculation!” — if this is your gut reaction after reading the last sentence please do some more reflection.

Anyway, on the “real product” side, Solana is also pushing ahead with its PayFi narrative. They’re aware that DeFi is a perpetually onchain game with some offchain components, and that crypto won’t truly become mainstream without more “payment” focus use cases. You can see their initiatives by integrating with a lot of stablecoin providers (PYUSD incentives) and supporting projects that would support further stablecoin growth.

This strategy also aligns with Solana being a relatively US-centric project. Stablecoin is the lowest hanging fruit in Trump’s administration for anything crypto, and one of Solana’s biggest backers, Multicoin Capital, has a very strong friend in the white house. David Sacks, the White House’s AI and Crypto Czar, is one of Multicoin’s first investors (LP).

Thus, Solana has too much political goodwill in the White House, and it would be foolish to not capitalize on this momentum. The most EV+ positive action they can take is by pushing for Solana ETF. With Gensler out of the picture and the increasingly available compliant tools on the Solana blockchain, it shouldn’t be an impossible task. Hint: it will also help a lot with future unlocks ;)

7. TON and Bitcoin Season 2 (TVL 2x by End of 2025)

We had a decent stint of Bitcoin and Telegram/TON ecosystem mania in 2024, but those are quite short-lived. Since Q4, all attention has shifted to AI agents and meme trading instead. However, I do believe that it’s not over for these two ecosystems and what we witnessed last year was simply season 1, the appetizer that will prepare us for the main course in 2025.

At the time of writing, TON and Bitcoin ecosystem hold $270M and $6.5B in TVL respectively. I’m predicting this number will 2x by the end of 2025. Here are a few catalysts:

  • There’ll be an increasing effort in activating the capital currently owned by the OG Bitcoin whales. We’re already seeing an increasing number of protocols, both DeFi and new infrastructure, that are tapping into these cohorts. Ultimately, people want yield, even if their background might be a bit of a hard-money maxi. One of the better ways to convince these maxis is by showing that you don’t need to trust, just verify. The cryptographic technology in our space is already getting there with more tools such as TEE, FHE, and zkTLS potentially enabling new design architecture that will excite Bitcoin OG into participating.

  • Mandatory portco shill: TON is just starting and they’re cooking a lot of stuff. One of them is TAC, a new infrastructure that will make it seamless for users to interact between TON and EVMs. With more of these initiatives coming in 2025, I predict another mania created around TON/Telegram and will propel their TVL even higher.

Honorable mentions:

  1. Restaking-Fi Makes a Comeback. I’m still betting that there will be some ponzinomics created on top of restaking-fi or LRT-fi as restaking protocols are forced to look for ways to enhance their yield.

  2. A Berachain App Creates a New DeFi Ponzinomics. Proof-of-Liquidity will bring experimentation back to DeFi. The key is how to expand this excitement to more than just the DeFi nerds (please don’t be another Curve war).

  3. OP & ARB Lose TVL to New L2s and L1s. New chains such as Movement, Bera, Monad, and others will have more TVL than Optimism and Arbitrum by the end of 2025.

  4. No Significant Stabelcoin Acquisition. After Bridge acquisition by Stripe, the mid curve take is to think that such an acquisition will be a “standard” moving forward. Reminder: Bridge is a unique case (exceptional founder, hard to get licenses, and somewhat of an acquihire) — most stablecoin founders are best serving the eurodollar offshore market.

  5. Move Is The Next Rust. Movement, Sui, and Aptos will lead the way for a new generation of onchain applications. The language and ecosystem will foster its own developer culture, similar to Solana and Rust in the early days.

2025 will be an even more exciting year for crypto.

Now that regulatory concerns are somewhat out of the way, we have a lot of work to do. We're truly in the roaring 2020s (have you seen CES?!), and it would be a shame if crypto is not further integrated with other technologies of this decade.

 

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The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications. 

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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PYTH: We'll Always Have Coldplay

Welcome back to The Epicenter, where crypto chaos meets corporate cringe.

But surprisingly, crypto has not been the most chaotic corner of the internet as of late.

That honor goes to the startup Astronomer, whose CEO’s cheating scandal broke the web in a glorious meme-fueled media frenzy. The company’s damage control? Hiring Gwyneth Paltrow as a “temporary spokesperson.” Do we think they’re grasping at straws or setting a new standard for PR?

Meanwhile, the markets didn’t blink. BTC is still flexing near its all-time highs. Michael Saylor’s bringing a bitcoin-adjacent money-market product to Wall Street. A pharma company just earmarked $700M to stack BNB, and analysts are calling time of death on the four-year crypto cycle. It’s a steady boom now, kittens.

A few things that are also worth noting: Winklevoss vs. JPMorgan, Visa’s take on stablecoins, and Robinhood’s Euro drama that defies the chillness of eurosummer.

Let’s get into it 👇

⛓ The On-Chain Pulse: What’s Happening on the Front Lines of Finance

This week’s biggest news in crypto and all things digital assets

đŸ—Łïž Word on the Street: What the Experts are Saying

Stuff you should repost (or maybe even cough reword and take credit for)

Meme of the Week

🏩 Kiss my SaaS: What’s Changing the Game for Fintech

Things you should care about if you want to impress your coworkers

Closing Thoughts

From meme-fueled PR stunts to Bitcoin-backed money-market funds, this week reminded us that markets move fast—and headlines move faster. With Wall Street automating itself, fintechs beefing with banks, and even your smartphone becoming a miner, anything is possible. Stay curious, stay cynical, and as always—stay sharp and stay liquid. We’ll see you back here in two weeks.

— The Epicenter, powered by Pyth Network

 

🙏 Donations Accepted 🙏

If you find value in my content, consider showing your support via:

💳 PayPal: 
1) Simply scan the QR code below đŸ“Č
2) or visit https://www.paypal.me/thedinarian

🔗 Crypto – Support via Coinbase Wallet to: [email protected]

 

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4 Fintech Companies 💾& Things To Know About đŸ€”

The fintech revolution is reshaping the way we manage, invest, and move money, breaking down traditional barriers and empowering individuals worldwide. As financial technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, a select group of innovative companies are leading the charge by offering groundbreaking solutions that redefine banking, payments, and digital assets. Whether you’re a savvy investor, an industry professional, or simply curious about the future of finance, discovering these trailblazing fintech companies is essential to understanding today’s dynamic financial landscape.

 

  1.  Alina Invest - The AI Wealth Manager for GenZ Women

Alina is aimed at women under 25 who identify as beginner investors. They're an SEC-registered investment advisor that charges $120/year for membership. The service "buys and sells for you" and gives up notification updates of recent transactions like a wealth manager would.

👉 Getting people to invest early is crucial to building long-term wealth. One thing that holds them back is a lack of confidence and experience. Being targetted "for beginners" and people who live on TikTok should appeal. I love the sense of "we're buying and selling for you." Funds always do that, but making it an engagement mechanic is very smart. The risk here is that building a wealth business will take decades for the AUM to compound. But the next generations, Wealthfront or Betterment, will look something like Alina.

2. Blue layer - The Carbon project funding platform

Bluelayer allows Carbon project developers to take from feasibility studies to issuing credits, tracking inventory, and managing orders. Developers of reforestation, conservation, direct air capture, and other projects can also directly report to industry registries. 

👉 Carbon investing and tax credits are heavily incentivized but need transparent data. By focusing on the developers, Bluelayer can ensure the data, reporting, and credits lifecycle is all managed at the source. This is smart.

3. Akirolabs - Modern Procurement for enterprise

Akiro is a "strategic" procurement platform aiming to help enterprise customers identify risks, value drivers, and strategic levers before issuing an RFP. It aims to bring in multiple stakeholders for complex purchasing decisions at multinationals. 

👉 Procurement is a great wedge for multinational corporate transformation. Buying anything in an enterprise that uses large-scale ERPs is a nightmare of committees and spreadsheets. Turning an oil tanker-sized organization around is difficult, but the right suppliers can have a meaningful impact in the short term. That only works if you can buy from them. Getting people on the same page with a single platform is a great start.

4. NeoTax - Automated Tax R&D Credits

NeoTax allows companies to connect their engineering tools to calculate available tax advantages automatically. Once calculated, the tax fillings are clearly labeled with supporting evidence for the IRS.

👉 AWS and GCP log files and data are a goldmine. Last week, I covered Bilanc, which uses log files to figure out per-account unit economics. Now, we calculate R&D tax credits. The unlock here is LLM's ability to understand unstructured data. The hard part is understanding the moat, but time will tell.

In an era where technology and finance are increasingly intertwined, these four fintech companies stand out as catalysts for positive change. By driving progress in digital payments, asset management, lending, and decentralized finance, they are not only making financial services more accessible and efficient—they are also paving the way for a more inclusive and empowered global economy. Staying informed about their innovations can help you seize new opportunities and take part in the future of finance.

 

👀Things to know 👀

 

PayPal issued low guidance and warned of a “transition year.” The stock is down 8% in extended trading despite PayPal reporting a 9% growth in revenue and 23% EBITDA. Gross profit is down 4% YoY. PayPal's total revenues were $29Bn for the year

Adyen reported 22% revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 46% for the full year. Adyen's total revenues were $1.75bn for the full year. The margin was down from 55% the previous year, impacted by hiring ahead of growth.

đŸ€”Â PayPal’s Braintree (unbranded) is losing market share in the US, while Adyen is winning it. eCommerce is growing ~9 to 10% YoY, and PayPal’s transaction revenue grew by 6.7%. The higher interest rate environment meant interest on balances dragged up the total revenue figure. Their core business is losing market share. Adyen is outgrowing the market by ~12%.

đŸ€”Â The PayPal button (branded) is losing to SHOP Pay and Apple Pay. The branded experience from Apple and Shopify is delightful for users; it’s fast and helps with small details like delivery tracking. That experience translates to higher conversion (and more revenue) for merchants.

đŸ€”Â The lack of a single global platform hurts PayPal, but it helps Adyen. In the earnings call, the new CEO admitted their mix of platforms like Venmo, PayPal, and Braintree are holding them back. They aim to combine and simplify, but that’s easier said than done.

đŸ€”Â Making a single platform from PayPal, Venmo, and Braintree won’t be easy. There’s a graveyard of payment company CEOs who tried to make “one platform” from things they acquired years ago. It’s crucial if they’re going to grow that they get their innovation edge back. Adyen has one platform in every market.

đŸ€”Â PayPal’s UK and European acquiring business is a bright spot. The UK and EU delivered 20% of overall revenue, growing 11% YoY. Square and Toast don’t have market share here, while iZettle, which PayPal acquired in 2018, is a strong market player. Overall though, it’s yet another tech stack and business that’s not part of a single global platform.

The two banks provided accounts to UK front companies secretly owned by an Iranian petrochemicals company. PCC has used these entities to receive funds from Iranian entities in China, concealed with trustee agreements and nominee directors. 

đŸ€”Â This is the headline every bank CEO fears. Oof. Shares of both banks have been down since the news broke, but this will no doubt involve crisis calls, committees, appearing in front of the regulator, and, finally, some sort of fine.

đŸ€”Â The "risk-based approach" has been arbitraged. A UK company with relatively low annual revenue would look "low risk" at onboarding. One business the FT covered looked like a small company at a residential address to compliance staff. They'd likely apply branch-level controls instead of the enterprise-grade controls you'd see for a large corporation. 

đŸ€”Â Hiring more staff won't fix this problem; it's a mindset and technology challenge. In theory, all of the skill and technology that exists to manage risks with large corporate customers (in the transaction banking divisions) are available to the other parts of a bank. In practice, they're not. Most banks lack a single data set and the ability for compliance officers in one team to see data from another part of the org. Getting the basics right with data and tooling is incredibly hard and will involve a multi-year effort. 

đŸ€”Â These things are rarely the failure of an individual or department; the issue is systemic. While two banks are named in this headline, the issue is everywhere. Banks need more data and better data to train better AI and machine learning. That all needs to happen in real-time as a compliment to the human staff. Throwing bodies at this won't solve the visibility issue teams have.

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