Crypto Capos thoughts for the rest of 2025 and 2026
My thoughts for the rest of 2025 and 2026
Lately, I’ve been less vocal about my mid and long-term predictions. I’ve mostly focused on the short-term. That’s because, over the years, I’ve come to believe that the best approach is to focus on current data and the next moves. To stay flexible. It’s all about forecasts vs. adaptability.
But like everything in life, extremes rarely work. It can’t be 100% predictions, nor 0%. Same goes for adaptability. You need both. The key is finding the balance.
Still, this time it feels even more important to have some perspective about what could be coming next. Because if you’re not mentally or strategically prepared, the scale of what might unfold could truly catch you off guard.
Some of you will remember what I said back in 2023 and 2024. While my timing was off, the core thesis hasn’t changed. Let me explain:
During the 2020 COVID era, the Fed printed over 4 trillion USD to inject into the economy. It delayed the collapse, but didn’t solve anything. This was the start of a massive QE (Quantitative Easing) phase. Then, inflation hit, and the Fed had to reverse course. QT began (Quantitative Tightening), rates went up, and liquidity was pulled out. That’s been slowing down the economy for months.
Despite that, both #stocks and #BTC hit new highs. But now, interest rates are starting to come down. And historically, that’s been a sign that recession is on the way. I said this several times back in 2023 and 2024.
And this is what I mean when I say the inevitable is just being delayed: a major global reset. Not just any correction, but something comparable to 1929. A true depression. What many call “The Great Reset.” A shift towards a new system: digital economy, ISO 20022 standard, CBDCs… all of it. Estimated to unfold between late 2025 and early 2026.
Tariffs are just noise in the bigger picture. As Ray Dalio said a few days ago, they’re a distraction from what really matters. And in my view, stronger events are coming that will bring sharper corrections.
With that said, here’s how I see things across different timeframes:
Very short-term (next few days):
As I said recently, a rebound was expected, and we’re getting it. After the 90-day pause on tariffs, the market is reacting well. $BTC could move towards the $92k–$98k zone. Many altcoins could bounce 50%–100%.
Short-term (next few weeks):
Once resistance is hit, there’s a decent chance we’ll see another capitulation. Whether triggered by renewed tariff talk or something else (another pandemic scare, or escalating conflict), we’ll need to adapt as things develop. But the probability is high.
Medium-term (next few months, probably until September):
Overall, I expect a bullish trend. Whether after a potential shakeout event or directly from here, we could see some sort of altseason. Not as crazy as 2021, and definitely not like 2017. That won't happen until strong QE (probably 2027-2030).
Some alts might break highs, others won’t. But prices are now very oversold, and returns could be very good. Even if a black swan hits, that would only improve the accumulation zones forming since late March.
Mid / Long-term (late 2025 and 2026):
This is where things could get really ugly. Like I’ve said before, this “bull market” never felt like a real bull market. $BTC was pushed up artificially by ETFs and USDT/USDC minting. Meanwhile, many alts are still near their lows. This disconnect is concerning.
September might be a key pivot. If you look at the 2021 cycle, it’s very similar:
April–July 2021 = current February-April 2025
July–November 2021 = potentially late April to September 2025
November 2021 = bear market begins. Same could happen from September 2025 onward.
We’ve never seen how #Bitcoin behaves during a real crisis, especially not a global recession/depression. If that happens, expect extreme volatility, and probably the worst part of the cycle.
This isn’t meant to discourage anyone. There will be opportunities, especially in the next few months. But it’s better to be ready than caught off guard. Most importantly: stay flexible.
I’ll be expanding on all this in the coming weeks. Breaking it down point by point, adding charts and deeper context.
Important: This is just my opinion. None of this is financial advice. Always do your own research.
