Bitcoin hit $82,000 on Thursday after the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate. By Friday it was back below $79,000. That is how fast the macro can take back what legislation giveth.
The culprit is the bond market.
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.54%, its highest since May 2025, after hotter than expected CPI and PPI data stoked fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The 30-year yield crossed 5%. The 2-year broke above 4%. All in the same session.
Crypto-linked equities got hit harder than Bitcoin. Coinbase dropped nearly 6%. Circle fell 7.4%. Strategy slid 5.4%. Bitcoin miners MARA and Hut 8 each lost around 7%.
CME FedWatch now prices more than a 44% probability of a Fed rate hike by December, a sharp reversal from expectations of multiple cuts at the start of 2026. At the start of the year traders expected two cuts. Now they are pricing a hike.
Bitcoin has now failed to close above its 200-day moving average at $82,228 on five consecutive attempts this month…
Five tries. Five rejections. The ceiling is real.
The CLARITY Act tailwind is real. The macro headwind is also real. Right now the headwind is winning.
Watch the bond market.
It is running the show. ☕
https://www.cnbc.com/markets/bonds/