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? The Dinarian on Locals brings you the latest in news, interviews, in-depth conversations, and stories from across the blockchain and global communities—within and beyond cryptocurrency ?. Experts delve into how blockchain technology is reshaping industries, enhancing business networks ?, transforming transaction workflows, and advancing distributed ledger systems ??. We also explore intriguing topics that may venture into the realm of conspiracies—and so much more!
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Stablecoin Provider Circle Eyes Public Listing in Q4 This Year: CFO

Amid concerns that USDC would fall to similar liquidity issues as Terra's stablecoin, Circle's chief financial officer Jeremy Fox-Geen sat down with Decrypt to demystify how the market's second-largest stablecoin operates.

Last week, Circle, the company behind the stablecoin, released its first monthly full breakdown of the assets backing the token.

The stablecoin provider highlighted that its USDC reserve is now held exclusively in cash and three-month U.S. Treasury bonds and is wholly separate from the firm's operations.

Per the firm's report, the total amount of USDC in circulation as of June 30 was 55,569,519,982 tokens, while reserve assets backing the U.S. dollar-pegged coin totaled $55.7 billion.

Of this amount, Circle had $13.58 billion in cash at regulated U.S. banks, such as Silvergate Bank, Bank of New York Mellon, and Silicon Valley Bank, among others. Another $42.1 billion is currently held in treasury bonds.

The disclosure came a little over a week after the firm's CEO Jeremy Allaire hit back at rumors that USDC would go the way of Terra, stating that financially the Boston-based company "is in the strongest position it has ever been."

This is what Fox-Geen affirmed with Decrypt, pointing out that Circle is a U.S. registered financial services company operating under the same regulatory framework that applies to payment companies like Apple with its Apple Pay product, PayPal, the operator of mobile payment service Venmo, or Block with its Cash App service.

"The framework we operate under is widely trusted. It is used by the largest payments companies and protects hundreds of tens if not hundreds of millions of individuals with billions of dollars of money in these systems," said Fox-Geen.

The Terra implosion and liquidity crisis
Responding to claims that Circle is losing money because the company is paying incentives to its reserve holders, with some of them using those funds to mint fresh USDC tokens, Fox-Geen said that "the crypto term for [such allegations] would be FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), … much of which is not just speculative, but is inaccurate."

"These are absurd rumors, and the people who wrote them don't understand how banks work. Circle does not pay any banks to hold fiat currency. That's not how banks work. Banks pay their customers interest to receive that fiat currency," he said.

According to him, even if Circle had such an arrangement with a bank, that arrangement would have been thoroughly documented and disclosed in the company's public SEC filings, which can be downloaded from the regulator's website.

"If it's not there, it's because it doesn't exist, because if it existed, as a U.S. financial services company under registration with the SEC, we have to disclose it subject to penalties, including on the officers of the company personally," said Fox-Geen, adding that "literally everything material about our companies have been documented and fully disclosed."

Circle's CFO agreed, though, that people's concerns can probably be justified after the meltdown of the Terra ecosystem and the liquidity crisis many firms now face. That's because USDC is also often used by those companies in their operations.

Recent headwinds for the industry started with the dramatic collapse of sister tokens Luna and UST in May, which resulted in at least $55 billion of investors' wealth being wiped out from the market. In the ensuing weeks, crypto lending company Celsius froze withdrawals from its platform and ultimately filed for bankruptcy, with crypto brokers Three Arrows Capital and Voyager Digital dealing with similar woes.

Fox-Geen, however, denied that Circle has any exposure to those companies since the law "unambiguously requires that the USDC reserves can only be held in a certain set of instruments."

"We are not allowed to lend them, borrow against them, or use them to pay our bills. The reserve is held in segregated accounts for the benefit of USDC customers, and under money transmission laws," said Fox-Geen. "And under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, the USDC reserve is afforded all of the protections that are available that are under those laws and regulations given to every other large mainstream payments."

When asked whether any crypto lending companies have ever approached Circle with requests to borrow from its USDC reserves, Jeremy said that although he's only been at the company for 18 months, he is not aware of anything like that happening in the history of the stablecoin.

"And [Circle] has always been clear that the USDC reserve cannot be used for any other purpose," said Fox-Geen.

He also stressed that Circle Yield, the company's short- and long-term yield interest rate product for institutional investors, would probably be the first foray into the digital asset markets for many Circle customers.

With such clientele in tow, the company wanted to ensure that it was supervised and regulated and "to make sure that it took as little risk as possible," he said.

"Circle Yield is issued as an unregistered security under the U.S. securities law, which is how these products need to be issued," said Fox-Geen. "And if we dig deeper, you'll see that the SEC or state regulators have sanctioned many people for issuing yield products that are not following the laws of the United States… So we had to find a regulator who was able to regulate a digital asset or any lending product."

Crypto lending companies, including Celsius and BlockFi, have been targeted by the SEC and regulators in New York, New Jersey, Texas, and other states since last year, with cease-and-desist letters issued or hefty fines paid.

Notably, the actual regulator overseeing Circle Yield is the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA), whom Fox-Geen described as a "forward thinking" and "one of the most respected offshore financial regulators" that helps the company "to withstand the scrutiny of the most demanding customers."

Circle Yield's core feature is that the offering is said to be fully secured with Bitcoin.

The product is also over-collateralized, stressed Fox-Geen, which "is not how most borrowing and lending businesses in crypto or in digital assets work."

But what is over-collateralization and how does it work?

"When we lend that USDC to our borrowing customer, the borrowing customer gives us 125% of the value of the loan in Bitcoin, which is held in an independent collateral agent with a fully perfected security interest," he explained.

If there were ever a default on the loan, Circle would thus be entitled to that Bitcoin.

This, in turn, begs the question what happens if the price of Bitcoin falls?

To secure the over-collateralization, Circle says it uses margin calls, which, as detailed by Fox-Geen, occur twice a day, seven days a week.

"If Bitcoin was to fall from the 125%, for example, down to 100%, or lower, we would then make a margin call to the customers to whom we have lent USDC. And they would then deposit more Bitcoin that we have to take the collateral back to 125%. Similarly, if Bitcoin goes up, they can have some of their collateral back to sustain it at 125%," he said.

Amid the latest volatility in crypto markets, Fox-Geen said that this mechanism "performed exactly as it was supposed to perform all the way through the tunnel."

Margin calls were met on time" flawlessly," Circle Yield remained over-collateralized all the time, and customers suffered no losses.

He also acknowledged that Circle Yield's current rates—which dropped from the initial 10.75% in November 2020 to a mere half a percent on both short and long fixed-income terms —are "not very attractive" and that right now, "there is very little borrowing demand for USDC."

"The reason for this is the laws of corporate finance apply to digital asset markets just the same as they apply to every other asset market," said Fox-Geen, adding that "rates will evolve" as the markets stabilize.

Circle expected to go public this year
As for the company's plans to go public via a SPAC deal signed last year with Concord Acquisition Corp., Fox-Geen expects the process will be completed at some point in the fourth quarter of this year.

Currently, the S-4 filing containing all information about the company is in a comment and review process with the SEC, with the latest amendment published last Monday.

Fox-Geen explains that if a company files for a traditional IPO, this process happens in private, and everything is disclosed at the end of the process. However, going public through a SPAC deal means that this entire process occurs in public.

"As for now, we remain under a common review process with the SEC, they have a job to do, and it's an important job," he said. "This is a novel industry. We're a novel company, and their job is to ensure that the disclosures are complete and accurate."

According to him, this process takes longer for crypto companies, as, for example, was the case with Coinbase.

"Although the timing of that is not in our hands, it is in the hands of the SEC; our current expectation is that we will emerge as a public company sometime in the fourth quarter of this year," added Fox-Geen.

https://decrypt.co/105337/stablecoin-provider-circle-eyes-public-listing-in-q4-this-year-cfo

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⚠️ MAJOR CONFIRMATION DIRECTLY FROM SWIFT ⚠️

‼️MAJOR CONFIRMATION DIRECTLY FROM SWIFT: “WE ARE UPGRADING ISO 20022 DATA FIELDS TO INCLUDE DIGITAL ASSET TRANSACTIONS VIA APIs”‼️

Listen closely.👂👇

Op: Smqkedqg

00:01:31
The EU moved the Digital Euro for the ECB forward (CBDC)

The EU moved the Digital Euro for the ECB forward yesterday on Dec 24 2025, just before Xmas

Same playbook as 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act was passed while Congress & the public were preparing for Xmas.

Monetary reform passes when no one’s watching 👁

00:01:42
Any Of This Sound Familiar?

This is their playbook!

00:02:32
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🔥 UPDATE: The biggest potential IPOs in 2026 could be major market events.

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$80 SHFE Silver. 🚨 A $8.13 spread vs COMEX

This isn’t a breakout.
This is a statement.

Chinese SHFE silver at $80.
COMEX at $71.87.
Spread: $8.13 never seen in history.
That’s not volatility.
That’s paper losing control of physical pricing.

Banksters are cooked.

An $8 spread is nearly impossible to manage.

A true Christmas gift from China. 🎄

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ELON IS BUILDING ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA TO SAVE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE

Elon says this is one of xAI’s most important projects yet.

It starts as Grokipedia, but the real goal is Encyclopedia Galactica.

  • The name will officially become Encyclopedia Galactica once the project has earned it, even just slightly

  • It is designed as a massive open source repository of all knowledge about the Universe

  • Anyone can access it, with no gatekeepers, no paywalls, and no centralized control

  • xAI plans to create many copies and distribute them periodically across the solar system

  • Copies could be placed on Earth, the Moon, Mars, and deep space to preserve knowledge

  • The purpose is survival level redundancy in case civilization collapses or slips into barbarism

  • The project explicitly takes inspiration from the destruction of the Library of Alexandria

This is not about AI chats.

It’s about memory.

If humanity fails, Galactica is meant to remember.

Source: @xAI, @grok, @elonmusk

...

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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den… the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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