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Defense Experts Game Out US-China War Over Taiwan; Dalio Warns Escalations 'Very Dangerous'

A group of American defense experts operating out of a 5th floor suite in Washington DC have been mapping out a hypothetical war between the United States and China over Taiwan.

"The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion," said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which has been simulating various war scenarios. "However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific."

In sessions that will run through September, retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials hunch like chess players over tabletops along with analysts from the CSIS think tank. They move forces depicted as blue and red boxes and small wooden squares over maps of the Western Pacific and Taiwan. The results will be released to the public in December. -Bloomberg

The base assumption is that China invades Taiwan to force unification, which the US responds to with its military. Another assumption (that's 'far from certain') is that Japan would grant 'expanded rights' to use US bases on its territory - but wouldn't intervene directly unless Japanese land is attacked.

Nuclear weapons are not part of the scenarios, and the weapons used in the simulation are the most likely to be deployed based on current capabilities of the nations involved.

News of the war game simulations come as China began test-firing missiles in recent days following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) visit to Taiwan.So far, 18 of 22 rounds of the simulation to date have resulted in Chinese missiles sinking a large part of the US and Japanese surface fleet, and would destroy "hundreds of aircraft on the ground," according to Cancian, a former White House defense budget analyst and retired US Marine.

"However, allied air and naval counterattacks hammer the exposed Chinese amphibious and surface fleet, eventually sinking about 150 ships," he added.

"The reason for the high US losses is that the United States cannot conduct a systematic campaign to take down Chinese defenses before moving in close," Cancian continued. "The United States must send forces to attack the Chinese fleet, especially the amphibious ships, before establishing air or maritime superiority."

"To get a sense of the scale of the losses, in our last game iteration, the United States lost over 900 fighter/attack aircraft in a four-week conflict. That’s about half the Navy and Air Force inventory."

According to the simulations, the Chinese missile force "is devastating while the inventory lasts," which makes US subs and long-range-capable bombers "particularly important." Also key, is Taiwan's defense capabilities, because its forces would be primarily responsible for countering Chinese landings from the South.

"The success or failure of the ground war depends entirely on the Taiwanese forces," said Cancian. "In all game iterations so far, the Chinese could establish a beachhead but in most circumstances cannot expand it. The attrition of their amphibious fleet limits the forces they can deploy and sustain. In a few instances, the Chinese were able to hold part of the island but not conquer the entire island."

"For the Taiwanese, anti-ship missiles are important, surface ships and aircraft less so," because surface ships "have a hard time surviving as long as the Chinese have long-range missiles available."

There have been no estimates so far on lives lost, or the sweeping economic impact of such a conflict between the US and China.

As Bridgewater's Ray Dalio notes, "The US-China Tit-For-Tat Escalations Are Very Dangerous."

Unfortunately, what is happening now between the US and China over Taiwan is following the classic path to war laid out in my book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.” If events continue to follow this path, this conflict will have a much larger global impact than the Russia-Ukraine war because it is between the world's leading superpowers that are economically much larger and much more intertwined.

For reasons previously explained, the Russia-Ukraine war is minor by comparison, though the two conflicts are related and the Russia-Ukraine war, like all wars, is having terrible consequences. For example, consider that China's share of world trade is over seven times larger than Russia's [1] and constitutes about 19% of all American manufactured goods imports. [2] Imagine if importing goods from China and doing business with China became the same as they are with Russia now. Imagine what the supply chain and economic impacts on the world would be. Imagine what sanctions on China would be like for the world. Supply chains would collapse, economic activity would dive, and inflation would soar. And that’s just what would happen to economies due to economic warfare which would pale in comparison to the impact that military warfare, which we are obviously dangerously close to, would have.

For reasons explained in my book, the situation that now exists between the United States and China is very similar to that which existed between powers immediately prior to World Wars I and II and many other immediate prewar periods. The chart below shows my US-China conflict gauge since 2000. As you can see, the readings for conflict between the US and China are the highest ever.

This index is composed of many indicators such as changes in military spending, personnel, and deployment; sentiment of each country's people about the other country; media attention given to the conflict, etc. The combination of military spending and attitudes toward each rival country has been particularly indicative. The chart below shows the shares of global military spending for the US and China which significantly understates China’s military spending because much government spending that supports the military is not included as direct military spending. Also, American military spending covers the world while Chinese military spending is more focused in the region. Knowledgeable parties tell me that China has significant military superiority around Taiwan.

The chart below plots recent Gallop poll data and shows that 80% of Americans now have an unfavorable view of China—which is now on par with how Americans view Russia (and is up meaningfully over the past few years).

To put the existing level of conflict between China and the US in perspective, the table below compares the current US-China conflict gauge reading to past readings of other great conflicts. As shown, the current reading for the US and China is nearly 1.2 standard deviations above the average, which is a reading in the high end of the range of major conflicts. While this conveys a high level and risk of conflict, it should not be misinterpreted to mean that a worsening is to come. Sometimes, these moments of heightened conflict are followed by a stepping back from war. For example, the period leading into the Cuban Missile Crisis had a relatively high reading of 0.9, but wise heads prevailed, so a potential disaster was avoided.

There are many more measures that convey the changing picture that are explained in my book which I don’t have the space to show you here, but will continue to plot along with the historical analogies I outlined in the book. I will use them to paint as accurate a picture as I can about what's happening and put it into an historical context. The dot plot will speak for itself as to which path we are on.

As for what's now happening, the Chinese are responding to Nancy Pelosi’s visit by cutting off most relations and demonstrating that they can militarily control the area around Taiwan, which implies that China could shut Taiwan off from the rest of the world. Imagine that and its implications, e.g., imagine if semiconductor chips couldn't get out of Taiwan. China is also displaying its military power and it is crossing previously uncrossed lines of demarcation, thus closing in on Taiwan. [7]

Pelosi's visit was perceived by China as a move in favor of Taiwan's independence rather than toward one China with Taiwan part of China, and it is essentially challenging the US to stop it from doing what it is doing. The question is whether the US will respond with another escalation that will prompt another Chinese response, in the classic tit-for-tat acceleration into war, or if the sides will step back.

To gain a picture of the past and the forces that are driving the evolution of the US and China toward war (i.e. the Big Cycle) I suggest that you review Chapter 13 "US-China Relations and Wars." I suggest that you pay particular attention to my explanation of previous Taiwan Straits crises and why I said I would worry if we had a "Fourth Taiwan Crisis" which is the crisis that we are now having. To understand what is happening you must understand these things.

As I summarized on page 455 of that Chapter in the section "The Risk of Unnecessary War:" Stupid wars often happen as a result of a tit-for-tat escalation process in which responding to even small actions of an adversary is more important than being perceived as weak, especially when those on both sides don’t really understand the motivations of those on the other side. History shows us that this is especially a problem for declining empires, which tend to fight more than is logical because any retreat is seen as a defeat. Take the issue of Taiwan. Even though the US fighting to defend Taiwan would seem to be illogical, not fighting a Chinese attack on Taiwan might be perceived as being a big loss of stature and power over other countries that won’t support the US if it doesn’t fight and win for its allies. Additionally, such defeats can make leaders look weak to their own people, which can cost them the political support they need to remain in power. And, of course, miscalculations due to misunderstandings when conflicts are transpiring quickly are dangerous. All these dynamics create strong pulls toward wars accelerating even though such mutually destructive wars are so much worse than cooperating and competing in more peaceful ways. There is also risk of untruthful, emotional rhetoric taking hold in both the US and China, creating an atmosphere for escalation.

While the power of the forces behind the Big Cycle explained in "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” can be overwhelming, people still have choices that will affect the outcomes. This conflict is still a low-grade military conflict (which I call a Category 2 military conflict) because 1) it has not yet produced an exchange of bloodshed of people from the two major sides i.e., Chinese and/or Americans and 2) it is not taking place on either country’s homeland (though the Chinese would say Taiwan is part of their homeland even though it’s not part of mainland China). If either of these were to change, that would be the next big step up toward unimaginable all-out war which I still consider improbable.

A good thing is that sensible people on both sides are scared of war even though they don’t want to look like they are. A bad thing is that some people on both sides want to intensify the fight because to not do so in the face of the provocation wound be perceived as a sign of weakness. That dynamic of upping the ante to avoid looking like one is backing down has throughout history been shown to be a very dangerous dynamic. We have seen many historic cases which have led to terrible wars because neither side wanted to back down and only few in which sensible people stepped back from the brink when faced with the prospect of unacceptable destruction.

My hope is that China’s escalation will not lead to the next US escalation which will lead to the next Chinese escalation which, despite the strong desire of sensible people on both sides to avoid war, would lead to a war. But hope is not a strategy, so I will try to be as realistic as possible, navigate accordingly, and communicate well with you.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/defense-experts-game-out-us-china-war-over-taiwan-dalio-warns-escalations-very

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September 07, 2025
Utility, Utility, Utility

🚨Robinhood CEO - Vlad Tenev says: “It’s time to move beyond Bitcoin and meme coins into real-world assets!”

For up to date cryptocurrencies available through Robinhood:
https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/coin-availability/

00:00:24
September 06, 2025
3 Companies Control 80% Of U.S. Banking👀

3 companies. 80% of U.S. banking. You need to know their names.

Watch us break it down in the latest Stronghold 101

00:03:58
September 06, 2025
We Have Been Lied To, For Far To Long!

Impossible Ancient Knowledge That DEBUNKS Our History!

Give them a follow:

Jays info:
@TheProjectUnity on X
youtube.com/c/ProjectUnity

Geoffrey Drumms info:
@TheLandOfChem on X
www.youtube.com/@thelandofchem

00:18:36
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading
Pyth Network DAO

Beyond revenue, the Phase 2 proposal asks for the DAO to consider whether and how the network can deliver value back to the community.

This new product could fuel the DAO, and the DAO should consider whether it wants to support buybacks, rewards, and strengthening the network for all stakeholders.

Looking ahead to Phase 3: Total market coverage.

→ 200–300 new symbols added each month
→ 3K+ by year-end, 10K+ in 2026
→ Complete coverage across: trading venues, OTC markets, permissioned & unpermissioned DeFi

Pyth will become the most comprehensive financial data layer in the world.

https://x.com/PythNetwork/status/1963255788698484942

🚨BREAKING: Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet warns of a supply chain attack in the JavaScript ecosystem after an NPM account compromise.

He advises users to carefully verify every transaction if using a hardware wallet, and to avoid on-chain transactions entirely if they don’t.

Stay safe.

https://x.com/CoinDesk/status/1965110299456847944

$ETH ETF outflow of $96,700,000 🔴 yesterday.

BlackRock sold $192,700,000 in Ethereum.

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The Great Onboarding: US Government Anchors Global Economy into Web3 via Pyth Network

For years, the crypto world speculated that the next major cycle would be driven by institutional adoption, with Wall Street finally legitimizing Bitcoin through vehicles like ETFs. While that prediction has indeed materialized, a recent development signifies a far more profound integration of Web3 into the global economic fabric, moving beyond mere financial products to the very infrastructure of data itself. The U.S. government has taken a monumental step, cementing Web3's role as a foundational layer for modern data distribution. This door, once opened, is poised to remain so indefinitely.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially partnered with leading blockchain oracle providers, Pyth Network and Chainlink, to distribute critical official economic data directly on-chain. This initiative marks a historic shift, bringing immutable, transparent, and auditable data from the federal government itself onto decentralized networks. This is not just a technological upgrade; it's a strategic move to enhance data accuracy, transparency, and accessibility for a global audience.

Specifically, Pyth Network has been selected to publish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, starting with quarterly releases going back five years, with plans to expand to a broader range of economic datasets. Chainlink, the other key partner, will provide data feeds from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), including Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This crucial economic information will be made available across a multitude of blockchain networks, including major ecosystems like Ethereum, Avalanche, Base, Bitcoin, Solana, Tron, Stellar, Arbitrum One, Polygon PoS, and Optimism.

This development is closer to science fiction than traditional finance. The same oracle network, Pyth, that secures data for over 350 decentralized applications (dApps) across more than 50 blockchains, processing over $2.5 trillion in total trading volume through its oracles, is now the system of record for the United States' core economic indicators. Pyth's extensive infrastructure, spanning over 107 blockchains and supporting more than 600 applications, positions it as a trusted source for on-chain data. This is not about speculative assets; it's about leveraging proven, robust technology for critical public services.

The significance of this collaboration cannot be overstated. By bringing official statistics on-chain, the U.S. government is embracing cryptographic verifiability and immutable publication, setting a new precedent for how governments interact with decentralized technology. This initiative aligns with broader transparency goals and is supported by Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, positioning the U.S. as a world leader in finance and blockchain innovation. The decision by a federal entity to trust decentralized oracles with sensitive economic data underscores the growing institutional confidence in these networks.

This is the cycle of the great onboarding. The distinction between "Web2" and "Web3" is rapidly becoming obsolete. When government data, institutional flows, and grassroots builders all operate on the same decentralized rails, we are simply talking about the internet—a new iteration, yes, but the internet nonetheless: an immutable internet where data is not only published but also verified and distributed in real-time.

Pyth Network stands as tangible proof that this technology serves a vital purpose. It demonstrates that the industry has moved beyond abstract "crypto tech" to offering solutions that address real-world needs and are now actively sought after and understood by traditional entities. Most importantly, it proves that Web3 is no longer seeking permission; it has received the highest validation a system can receive—the trust of governments and markets alike.

This is not merely a fleeting trend; it's a crowning moment in global adoption. The U.S. government has just validated what many in the Web3 space have been building towards for years: that Web3 is not a sideshow, but a foundational layer for the future. The current cycle will be remembered as the moment the world definitively crossed this threshold, marking the last great opportunity to truly say, "we were early."

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US Dept of Commerce to publish GDP data on blockchain

On Tuesday during a televised White House cabinet meeting, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced the intention to publish GDP statistics on blockchains. Today Chainlink and Pyth said they were selected as the decentralized oracles to distribute the data.

Lutnick said, “The Department of Commerce is going to start issuing its statistics on the blockchain because you are the crypto President. And we are going to put out GDP on the blockchain, so people can use the blockchain for data distribution. And then we’re going to make that available to the entire government. So, all of you can do it. We’re just ironing out all the details.”

The data includes Real GDP and the PCE Price Index, which reflects changes in the prices of domestic consumer goods and services. The statistics are released monthly and quarterly. The biggest initial use will likely be by on-chain prediction markets. But as more data comes online, such as broader inflation data or interest rates from the Federal Reserve, it could be used to automate various financial instruments. Apart from using the data in smart contracts, sources of tamperproof data 👉will become increasingly important for generative AI.

While it would be possible to procure the data from third parties, it is always ideal to get it from the source to ensure its accuracy. Getting data directly from government sources makes it tamperproof, provided the original data feed has not been manipulated before it reaches the oracle.

Source

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List Of Cardano Wallets

Well-known and actively maintained wallets supporting the Cardano Blockchain are EternlTyphonVesprYoroiLaceADAliteNuFiDaedalusGeroLodeWalletCoin WalletADAWalletAtomicGem WalletTrust and Exodus.

Note that in case of issues, usually only queries relating to official wallets can be answered in Cardano groups across telegram/forum. You may need to consult with specific wallet support teams for third party wallets.

Tips

  • Its is important to ensure that you're in sole control of your wallet keys, and that the keys used can be restored via alternate wallet providers if a particular one is non-functional. Hence, put extra attention to Non-Custodial and Compatibility fields.
  • The score column below is strictly a count of checks against each feature listed, the impact of specific feature (and thus, score) is up to reader's descretion.
  • The table represents current state on mainnet network, any future roadmap activities are out-of-scope.
  • Info on individual fields can be found towards the end of the page.
  • Any field that shows partial support (eg: open-source field) does not score the point for that field.

Brief info on fields above

  • Non-Custodial: are wallets where payment as well as stake keys are not shared/reused by wallet provider, and funds can be transparently verified on explorer
  • Compatibility: If the wallet mnemonics/keys can easily (for non-technical user) be used outside of specific wallet provider in major other wallets
  • Stake Control: Freedom to elect stake pool for user to delegate to (in user-friendly way)
  • Transparent Support: Easy approachability of a public interactive - eg: discord/telegram - group (with non-anonymous users) who can help out with support. Twitter/Email supports do not count for a check
  • Voting: Ability to participate in Catalyst voting process
  • Hardware Wallet: Integration with atleast Ledger Nano device
  • Native Assets: Ability to view native assets that belong to wallet
  • dApp Integration: Ability to interact with dApps
  • Stability: represents whether there have been large number of users reporting missing tokens/balance due to wallet backend being out of sync
  • Testnets Support: Ability to easily (for end-user) open wallets in atleast one of the cardano testnet networks
  • Custom Backend Support: Ability to elect a custom backend URL for selecting alternate way to submit transactions transactions created on client machines
  • Single/Multi Address Mode: Ability to use/import Single as well as Multiple Address modes for a wallet
  • Mobile App: Availability on atleast one of the popular mobile platforms
  • Desktop (app,extension,web): Ways to open wallet app on desktop PCs
  • Open Source: Whether the complete wallet (all components) are open source and can be run independently.

Source

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💳 PayPal: 
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XRP: r9pid4yrQgs6XSFWhMZ8NkxW3gkydWNyQX
XLM: GDMJF2OCHN3NNNX4T4F6POPBTXK23GTNSNQWUMIVKESTHMQM7XDYAIZT
XDC: xdcc2C02203C4f91375889d7AfADB09E207Edf809A6

 

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