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đŸ’„Basel crypto rules: largest banks can have $20bn combined engagementđŸ’„
October 30, 2022
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(Dinarian Note: Click on the 1st link and you can read all the submissions from companies, Here is RIPPLES. Mind you, this is a startup company in San Fransisco writing to the Bank Of International Settlements, and YES XRP IS MENTIONED!)

The second crypto-asset consultation by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision closed at the end of September and it published the feedback received. One of the proposed rules limits the amount of bank cryptocurrency exposures to 1% of Tier 1 bank capital. Some of the feedback concluded that means that most of the world’s largest banks can have a combined $20 billion exposure to crypto-assets. 

The four most restrictive proposed Basel rules

There’s a lot of detail in the proposed Basel rules, but the four most significant issues are:

  1. Cryptocurrency exposures require a dollar-for-dollar set aside of tier 1 capital by banks
  2. Total cryptocurrency exposures are limited to 1% of Tier 1 capital
  3. DLT use for traditional assets attracts a 2.5% surcharge
  4. Cryptocurrency custody also has a dollar-for-dollar capital requirement.

We previously summarized the joint feedback from major trade associations.

Cryptocurrency exposure limit

The combined Tier 1 capital of 21 of the 30 globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) – excluding nine banks in China, Japan and Switzerland – totals $2 trillion, limiting their combined Group 2 crypto-asset (crytocurrencies) exposure to $20 billion. The crypto market is currently worth more than $950 billion. So together, the banks could have a maximum exposure of 2% to the whole cryptocurrency market.

The CME made a similar calculation, concluding that all its CME Clearing bank member firms could have a combined exposure of $20 billion.

Group 2 crypto-assets have a 1250% risk weighting, which means that banks have to set aside a dollar of capital for every dollar of cryptocurrency exposure. Although some hedging is now accounted for (up to 65%), in the absence of a cap, this would already disincentivize bank exposures.

Societe Generale observed that this “risks cementing control of these markets to non-banking players through excessively burdensome requirements.”

The World Federation of Exchanges and the Deutsche Börse had similar sentiments. “The proposed methodology has no precedent in financial market regulation when comparing it to other economically more volatile and less predictable asset classes (such as other complex financial instruments),” wrote the Deutsche Börse. “Exposure limits on individual asset classes for banks have to the best of our knowledge not even been proposed during the 2008 global financial crisis.”

A few large crypto exchanges also provided responses and they too objected to the cap, despite banks potentially being competition. Institutional adoption is viewed by many as a critical path to crypto-assets becoming mainstream.

Same activity, same risk, same treatment?

As much as the Tier 1 cap on cryptocurrencies was universally slated, so was the 2.5% infrastructure risk addon for Group 1 assets, which covers tokenized traditional assets and extremely conservative stablecoins.

“It is contradictory with the general ‘same activity, same risk, same treatment’ principle, acknowledged by the BCBS, especially for assets belonging to group 1a (tokenized traditional assets),” wrote BNP Paribas.

Societe Generale characterized it as “excessively conservative and lacks evidence-based justification. The use of DLT could lower the level of operational risks in institutions.”

Talking about the 2.5% surcharge on tokenizing conventional assets, the German Banking Industry Committee wrote, “there is a risk that this activity could move from the regulated financial sector to less regulated or completely unregulated sectors. This cannot be intended by the Basel Committee.”

The 2.5% addon “sets a precedent for applying capital penalties for the introduction of new technologies,” wrote the CME, which characterized it as a tax. “The stated aim of the FSB, International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) and the BCBS is to achieve a technology-neutral approach to cryptoasset regulation.”

The Deutsche Börse also pointed to the lack of technology neutrality regarding whether the blockchain infrastructure is permissioned or permissionless, because the Basel rules strongly favor permissioned DLT.

Additional burdens on activities that are already regulated

Different types of regulated institutions complained that they are already subject to prudential regulation and hence shouldn’t have additional burdens imposed.

For example, both the CME and CBOE stated that centrally cleared derivatives should be excluded from the 1% of Tier 1 capital exposure limits. 

Fnality, the DLT-based payments infrastructure, believes that the 2.5% DLT addon for tokenized conventional assets should not apply as it already complies with the Principles of Financial Market Infrastructures.

The World Federation of Exchanges asked for crypto-assets traded on regulated exchanges to be treated the same as their traditional counterparts. This especially relates to the 2.5% DLT addon, “particularly when the DLT is managed by an authorised exchange/CCP, which must and does take into account such risks.”

Crypto custody on the balance sheet

In April, the SEC imposed a new accounting rule, requiring crypto-asset custodians to put the assets they custody on their balance sheet. Normally assets owned by the banks’ clients don’t touch the balance sheet. The rule means that for every dollar of cryptocurrency under custody, a bank has to set aside a dollar of capital, which is not a viable business model. State Street described the rule as ‘insane’. The major custodians have all objected to the rule.

As an example, at the end of June 2022, BNY Mellon, the world’s largest conventional custodian, had assets under custody of $43 trillion with $21.8 billion of Tier 1 capital. 

Hence such a rule essentially blocks conventional custodians from participating in cryptocurrency custody beyond a tiny scale.

The first Basel proposal did not take account of custodied assets. But the second proposal published in June stated that crypto-asset exposures also apply to “activities, such as nonfiduciary custodial services, that may only give rise to operational risk.”

The Association of Global Custodians wrote, “Our members do not believe that it’s appropriate for the Committee to use the Second Consultation to redefine the current understanding of the term ‘exposure’ to include assets held in custody.” The American Bankers Association concurred.

Three of the world’s largest conventional custodians, BNY Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust, wrote a combined letter objecting to this, as well as the 2.5% DLT addon for conventional assets and the 1% Tier 1 cap. 

Stablecoins and basis risk

There was a fair amount of feedback about stablecoins. 

Our reading of the proposal is that tokenized bank deposits are considered Group 1a traditional assets as opposed to 1b stablecoins. Stablecoin issuer Circle seemed to think the same, but BNP Paribas asked for explicit clarification.

The proposed Basel rules include some fairly burdensome tests on stablecoins, so it’s unlikely that any current stablecoins would be considered Group 1. Failing that, they become Group 2 with its 1250% risk weighting or dollar-for-dollar capital requirement.

The first test relates to the ability of a user to redeem a stablecoin, and the second is for basis risk. That considers how often a stablecoin has lost its peg recently using a conservative 20 basis points.

Given banks are already prudentially regulated, BNP Paribas believes these tests should not apply to bank-issued stablecoins. The Basel proposals already state that to qualify as Group 1b, a stablecoin has to have a supervisor that imposes prudential capital and liquidity requirements. The proposals state that the Basel Committee is considering replacing the two tests with this supervision requirement.

FTX US made the logical point that if a stablecoin passes the redemption test, then the basis test is irrelevant because a user can redeem the stablecoin if the peg is lost. The redemption risk test is meant to work even in a crisis situation. However, regulators would probably argue that they are intentionally being prudent.

Stablecoin issuer Circle argued that its stablecoin is fully backed by cash and cash equivalents and hence “has reserve holdings that are safer than tokenised deposits, which the BCBS classifies as Group 1a”. It wants to see safely backed stablecoins treated the same as tokenized deposits.

Overall the feedback was more or less consistent in asking for more relaxed rules. The second round of proposals was in some ways more accommodating but considerably more restrictive in other significant aspects.

Shortly before the second consultation round started, the Chair of the Basel Committee Pablo Hernández de Cos, said, “diluting bank capital requirements because of a fear that crypto-asset activities will migrate outside the regulated banking system is not a convincing argument.”

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

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The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

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Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den
 the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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