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đŸ’„Can BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) make money from Cryptocurrency Services?đŸ’„
BNY Mellon (BK) executives are betting cryptocurrency services can rescue their bank’s revenue growth.
November 13, 2022
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Bank of New York Mellon (BK) became the first of America’s eight systematically important banks to become a custody manager for cryptocurrency and other digital assets this fall, Reuters reports. To elaborate, the New York State Department of Financial Services gave BNY Mellon permission to hold digital currencies in its custody platform.

Consequently, BNY Mellon’s Digital Asset Custody platform is now live. BNY Mellon is building the platform with Chainlysis and Fireblocks. Chainanalysis monitors on-chain transactions and provides Know Your Transaction (KYT) and Know Your Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) or KYV services. Asset custody managers need KYT and KYV to deter money laundering and other illegal actions.

Fireblocks builds wallet infrastructure for cybersecurity, scalability and innovation. Thus, Fireblocks integrates BNY Mellon’s with the blockchain with multi-party computation (MPC).

BNY Mellon needs Digital Asset Custody Services

Currently, BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) manages digital assets in 21 funds. Those funds include the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and other crypto funds.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC: GBTC) had $13.191 billion in assets under management on 8 November 2022. Grayscale is the only fund, BNY Mellon currently supports, but they plan pure crypto funds.

BNY Mellon’s management believes custody of digital assets is a growing business. BNY Mellon claims to be the world’s largest asset custodian, with over $43 trillion in traditional assets under custody and $2 trillion payments cleared and settled daily.

The crypto markets are enormous. CoinMarketCap estimates the entire global Crypto Market Capitalization of was $811.13 billion on 9 November 2022. Plus, the Total Cryptocurrency 24-Hour Market Volume was $180.64 billion on 9 November 2022.

The Growing Cryptocurrency Market

Moreover, the most popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) had a $311.926 billion Market Cap and a 100.492 billion 24-Hour Market Volume on 9 November 2022. Plus, the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH) had a Market Capitalization of $141.49 billion and a 24-Hour Market Volume of $38.667 billion on 9 November 2022.

The value of other digital assets is growing. For example, the 24-Hour Market Volume for all stablecoins was $172.33 billion on 9 November 2022. Stablecoins comprised 95.4% of the Global Cryptocurrency 24-Hour Market Volume on 9 November 2022. Stablecoins are popular because they are digital assets make payments in fiat currencies such as the US Dollar.

Can BNY Mellon (BK) Cash in on Stablecoins?

The most popular stablecoin, Tether (USDT), had a Market Capitalization of $69.534 billion and a 24-Hour Market Volume of $111.945 billion on 8 November 2022. Tether’s popularity is high because of the growing strength Tether makes payments in US dollars.

I think stablecoins could be an enormous opportunity for BNY Mellon (BK) because stablecoin operators hold the fiat currency they use in trust accounts and payment systems. Stablecoin holdings can be enormous. For example, Tether held $66.409 billion in assets (mostly US Treasury bills) on 30 June 2022.

Similarly, in September 2022, they claim another popular stablecoin Binance USD (BUSD) had $22 billion in net assets. Those assets comprised $5.34 billion US Treasury Debt, $14.32 billion in US Treasury Collateralized Repurchase Agreements, and $1.59 billion in cash deposits.

Stablecoins are an enormous business. Notably, CoinMarketCap estimates stablecoins accounted for 95.4% of the total crypto 24-Hour market volume on 9 November 2022. BNY Mellon can cash in stablecoins by offering custody services for stablecoin operators or offering its own stablecoin.

I think Stablecoins resemble checks and checking accounts. For example, Binance now pays interest on its BUSD stablecoin. Hence, stablecoins could be natural products for banks to offer. Another way BNY Mellon could profit from stablecoins is to buy stablecoin organizations such as Circle (the company behind the popular USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin), Tether, or Binance.

Can BNY Mellon cash in on DeFi and Central Bank Digital Currencies?

Finally, decentralized finance (DeFi) digital assets had a 24-hour Market Volume of $8.07 billion on 9 November 2022, ConMaketCap estimates.

Defi comprises digital assets built for finance, such as decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and tokens issued by financial services platforms. DeFi accounted for just 4.47% of the Global 24-Hour Market Crypto Market Volume on 9 November 2022.

Interestingly, a DAO is a digital corporation they build in the blockchain. DAO’s issue tokens that serve as investments similar to stock. Some DeFi platforms sell tokens linked to lending and other financial services. Thus, the digital asset market is enormous and growing.

A final digital assets opportunity for BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) is Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). A CBDC is a cryptocurrency or stablecoin a central bank, such as the Bank of England issues. I think CBDC could be popular because Mr. Market and consumers will treat them as fiat currencies. For example, people could view a Bank of England CBDC as pound sterling.

The New York Federal Reserve is researching and testing a wholesale CBDC (wCBDC) for use by banks and other financial institutions through its Project Cedar. The Fed has made no decision on a CBDC, yet it is developing one. I think there could be an enormous demand for a US Dollar wCBDC or CBDC because people could view it as a Digital Dollar.

Such demand could develop because the US Dollar is the global reserve currency and the world’s strongest currency. A reserve currency is the fiat currency banks and other institutions use for international transactions. One reason for BNY Mellon’s custody is its home in the USA, where it can convert assets into dollars and dollars into assets.

A Fed CBDC could grow BNY Mellon’s custody business because many people and institutions will want to convert assets into digital dollars.

Can BNY Mellon Reverse Negative Revenue Growth?

It is easy to see why BNY Mellon’s management is entering new markets. The bank is suffering from negative revenue growth.

For example, BNY Mellon’s revenue growth shrank by -16.34% in the quarter ending on 30 September 2022. Conversely, the revenues grew by 7.58% in the quarter ending on 30 June 2022.

Consequently, BNY Mellon’s quarterly revenues fell from $4.008 billion on 30 September 2021 and $4.229 billion on 30 June 2022 to $3.353 billion on 30 September 2022. I think the strong dollar and the economic chaos unleashed by the Ukraine are hurting BNY Mellon’s business, so managers are seeking additional sources of revenue.

BNY Mellon is Losing Money

Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) is losing money as its revenues fall.

For instance, BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) reported a quarterly operating loss of -$296 million on 30 September 2022. The quarterly operating income fell from $1.095 billion on 30 June 2022 and $1.162 billion on 30 September 2021.

Similarly, Mellon’s quarterly gross profit fell from $4.035 billion on 30 September 2021 and $4.254 billion on 30 June 2022 to $3.353 billion on 30 September 2022. Thus, BNY Mellon needs more revenue, income, and profit that digital assets could provide.

Conversely, BNY Mellon’s quarterly operating cash flow grew from $2.829 billion on 30 September 2021 to $3.429 billion on 30 June 2022 to $4.99 billion on 30 September 2022. In contrast, BNY Mellon’s quarterly ending cash flow fell from $101 million on 30 September 2021 to $82 million on 30 September 2022.

BNY Mellon is a Cash-Rich Company

BNY (BK) is a cash-rich company. For example, BNY Mellon reported a quarterly ending cash flow of $9.544 billion on 30 June 2022.

Impressively, BNY Mellon reported a quarterly financing cash flow of $30.095 billion on 30 June 2022. There were also quarterly investing cash flows of $19.931 billion on 31 March 2021 and $9.306 billion on 30 September 2022.

However, BNY Mellon pays off enormous amounts of debt. It reported quarterly financing cash flows of -$14.538 billion on 30 September 2022 and -$24.127 billion on 31 March 2022. Impressively, BNY Mellon’s total debts fell from $63.785 billion on 30 September 2021 to $28.177 billion on 30 September 2022.

Another reason BNY Mellon is moving into digital assets is that it has less cash. For instance, the cash and short-term investments fell from $200.119 billion on 30 September 2021 to $162.157 billion on 30 September 2022.

I consider BNY Mellon a value investment because it has enormous amounts of cash, growing cash flow, and shrinking debts. It’s also entering new markets such as digital assets custody that could generate enormous amounts of cash.

What Value does BNY Mellon (BK) have?

Moreover, BNY Mellon’s value is shrinking. For example, the total assets fell from $470.533 billion on 30 September 2021 to $427.953 billion on 30 September 2022.

Hence, another reason BNY Mellon (BK) is entering digital asset management is shrinking value. However, I think BNY Mellon is a value investment. This is a company with $427.953 billion in assets and a $42.10 stock price on 9 November 2022.

Plus, BNY Mellon pays an impressive dividend. For instance, BK Mellon has scheduled nine 37â‚” dividends between 10 November 2022 and 12 November 2024. Overall, BNY Mellon shares delivered a $1.48 forward dividend and a 3.52% dividend yield on 9 November 2022.

If you are seeking a dividend-paying stock that could profit from cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, CBDCs, and other digital assets, BNY Mellon is worth examining.

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🚹CEO of Ripple - Brad Garlinghouse at the Banking Committee talking about Ripple and XRP!
00:04:43
And it’s not AI or crypto, like THEY claim

đŸ‡ș🇾 SEC BURGUM: “LAWMAKERS BROKE THE GRID, NOT DATA CENTERS”

U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum just called out the real reason your energy bill is climbing, and it’s not AI or crypto.

Electricity in New England costs 3x more than in North Dakota and he says that’s thanks to bad energy policy, not data centers.

He slammed subsidies for unreliable sources like offshore wind, saying some projects cost $11B for 1GW of intermittent power, versus $1–2B for 24/7 reliable supply.

Burgum laid into what he called “climate extremists,” accusing them of prioritizing flashy green experiments over building energy systems that actually work.

The result is sky-high bills for electricity that cuts out when the weather does, while lawmakers pat themselves on the back for feel-good “net zero” policies that don’t add up.

Burgum:

“A lot of the higher prices that you're seeing are not related to the AI data centers.

The policy choices of the last 5 years, driven by sometimes ...

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🚹Interview with Jack McDonald CEO of Standard Custody & Trust🚹

Jack McDonald, Co-Founder of PolySign alongside Arthur Britto Timestamps for the Video listed below

Timestamps:
0:50 — Founded PolySign with Arthur Britto.
0:57 — Founding of Standard Custody.
1:01 — Ripple acquires Standard Custody.
1:20 — Why Ripple entered stablecoins and custody
1:40 — Discussion regarding Ripple and USDC
2:40 — Acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road.
3:12 — Hidden Road’s client base
4:15 — Ripple pledges $25 million
4:46 — Forward-looking commentary

OP: @ProfRipplEffect

00:06:55
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚹 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🚹 TRUMP: U.S. TO COLLECT 25% OF NVIDIA H200 CHIP SALES TO CHINA 🚹

In a dramatic policy pivot, President Trump announced (8 Dec 2025) that Nvidia will be allowed to export its H200 AI chips to approved Chinese customers—but Washington will skim one-quarter of every dollar of revenue, turning silicon sales into a de-facto tariff and national-security dividend.

🔑 Deal Breakdown

  • Revenue Share: 25 % of gross H200 sales to China must be remitted to the U.S. Treasury; Trump dubbed it “a tremendous deal for America”.

  • Chip Scope: H200 only—one generation behind the current Blackwell line; Blackwell & upcoming Rubin remain export-blocked.

  • Customer Filter: Commerce Department vetting of end-users; military-linked entities excluded, commercial data-centres & hyperscalers approved case-by-case.

  • Strategic Rationale: White House argues the levy keeps U.S. tech dominant, slows Chinese indigenous AI and creates a new revenue stream without lifting the full embargo.

💡 Market & Geopolitical Impact

  • ...

🚹 CFTC LAUNCHES CRYPTO PILOT PROGRAM FOR TOKENIZED COLLATERAL IN DERIVATIVES MARKETS 🚹

On 8 Dec 2025 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) kicked off a first-of-its-kind pilot that lets futures commission merchants (FCMs) accept Bitcoin, Ether and USDC (or other payment stablecoins) as margin collateral for futures and swaps—a move Acting Chair Caroline Pham says “establishes clear guardrails” while modernising U.S. derivatives plumbing .

🔑 Pilot Mechanics

  • Eligible Assets: BTC, ETH, USDC (and other payment stablecoins) can be posted as initial or variation margin; tokenised T-bills and RWA collateral are on the roadmap for Phase 2 .

  • Who Can Play: FCMs & DCOs that meet enhanced custody, liquidity and reporting thresholds; first three months require weekly position disclosures and same-day alerts for any operational hiccup .

  • Leverage Unlocked: A registered FCM can now fund a leveraged crude-oil swap with BTC margin—no need to liquidate into cash before market open, cutting ...

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Trump To Slash AI Regulations đŸ‡ș🇾
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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den
 the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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