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💥Can BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) make money from Cryptocurrency Services?💥

BNY Mellon (BK) executives are betting cryptocurrency services can rescue their bank’s revenue growth.

November 13, 2022

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) became the first of America’s eight systematically important banks to become a custody manager for cryptocurrency and other digital assets this fall, Reuters reports. To elaborate, the New York State Department of Financial Services gave BNY Mellon permission to hold digital currencies in its custody platform.

Consequently, BNY Mellon’s Digital Asset Custody platform is now live. BNY Mellon is building the platform with Chainlysis and Fireblocks. Chainanalysis monitors on-chain transactions and provides Know Your Transaction (KYT) and Know Your Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) or KYV services. Asset custody managers need KYT and KYV to deter money laundering and other illegal actions.

Fireblocks builds wallet infrastructure for cybersecurity, scalability and innovation. Thus, Fireblocks integrates BNY Mellon’s with the blockchain with multi-party computation (MPC).

BNY Mellon needs Digital Asset Custody Services

Currently, BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) manages digital assets in 21 funds. Those funds include the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and other crypto funds.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC: GBTC) had $13.191 billion in assets under management on 8 November 2022. Grayscale is the only fund, BNY Mellon currently supports, but they plan pure crypto funds.

BNY Mellon’s management believes custody of digital assets is a growing business. BNY Mellon claims to be the world’s largest asset custodian, with over $43 trillion in traditional assets under custody and $2 trillion payments cleared and settled daily.

The crypto markets are enormous. CoinMarketCap estimates the entire global Crypto Market Capitalization of was $811.13 billion on 9 November 2022. Plus, the Total Cryptocurrency 24-Hour Market Volume was $180.64 billion on 9 November 2022.

The Growing Cryptocurrency Market

Moreover, the most popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) had a $311.926 billion Market Cap and a 100.492 billion 24-Hour Market Volume on 9 November 2022. Plus, the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH) had a Market Capitalization of $141.49 billion and a 24-Hour Market Volume of $38.667 billion on 9 November 2022.

The value of other digital assets is growing. For example, the 24-Hour Market Volume for all stablecoins was $172.33 billion on 9 November 2022. Stablecoins comprised 95.4% of the Global Cryptocurrency 24-Hour Market Volume on 9 November 2022. Stablecoins are popular because they are digital assets make payments in fiat currencies such as the US Dollar.

Can BNY Mellon (BK) Cash in on Stablecoins?

The most popular stablecoin, Tether (USDT), had a Market Capitalization of $69.534 billion and a 24-Hour Market Volume of $111.945 billion on 8 November 2022. Tether’s popularity is high because of the growing strength Tether makes payments in US dollars.

I think stablecoins could be an enormous opportunity for BNY Mellon (BK) because stablecoin operators hold the fiat currency they use in trust accounts and payment systems. Stablecoin holdings can be enormous. For example, Tether held $66.409 billion in assets (mostly US Treasury bills) on 30 June 2022.

Similarly, in September 2022, they claim another popular stablecoin Binance USD (BUSD) had $22 billion in net assets. Those assets comprised $5.34 billion US Treasury Debt, $14.32 billion in US Treasury Collateralized Repurchase Agreements, and $1.59 billion in cash deposits.

Stablecoins are an enormous business. Notably, CoinMarketCap estimates stablecoins accounted for 95.4% of the total crypto 24-Hour market volume on 9 November 2022. BNY Mellon can cash in stablecoins by offering custody services for stablecoin operators or offering its own stablecoin.

I think Stablecoins resemble checks and checking accounts. For example, Binance now pays interest on its BUSD stablecoin. Hence, stablecoins could be natural products for banks to offer. Another way BNY Mellon could profit from stablecoins is to buy stablecoin organizations such as Circle (the company behind the popular USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin), Tether, or Binance.

Can BNY Mellon cash in on DeFi and Central Bank Digital Currencies?

Finally, decentralized finance (DeFi) digital assets had a 24-hour Market Volume of $8.07 billion on 9 November 2022, ConMaketCap estimates.

Defi comprises digital assets built for finance, such as decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and tokens issued by financial services platforms. DeFi accounted for just 4.47% of the Global 24-Hour Market Crypto Market Volume on 9 November 2022.

Interestingly, a DAO is a digital corporation they build in the blockchain. DAO’s issue tokens that serve as investments similar to stock. Some DeFi platforms sell tokens linked to lending and other financial services. Thus, the digital asset market is enormous and growing.

A final digital assets opportunity for BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) is Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). A CBDC is a cryptocurrency or stablecoin a central bank, such as the Bank of England issues. I think CBDC could be popular because Mr. Market and consumers will treat them as fiat currencies. For example, people could view a Bank of England CBDC as pound sterling.

The New York Federal Reserve is researching and testing a wholesale CBDC (wCBDC) for use by banks and other financial institutions through its Project Cedar. The Fed has made no decision on a CBDC, yet it is developing one. I think there could be an enormous demand for a US Dollar wCBDC or CBDC because people could view it as a Digital Dollar.

Such demand could develop because the US Dollar is the global reserve currency and the world’s strongest currency. A reserve currency is the fiat currency banks and other institutions use for international transactions. One reason for BNY Mellon’s custody is its home in the USA, where it can convert assets into dollars and dollars into assets.

A Fed CBDC could grow BNY Mellon’s custody business because many people and institutions will want to convert assets into digital dollars.

Can BNY Mellon Reverse Negative Revenue Growth?

It is easy to see why BNY Mellon’s management is entering new markets. The bank is suffering from negative revenue growth.

For example, BNY Mellon’s revenue growth shrank by -16.34% in the quarter ending on 30 September 2022. Conversely, the revenues grew by 7.58% in the quarter ending on 30 June 2022.

Consequently, BNY Mellon’s quarterly revenues fell from $4.008 billion on 30 September 2021 and $4.229 billion on 30 June 2022 to $3.353 billion on 30 September 2022. I think the strong dollar and the economic chaos unleashed by the Ukraine are hurting BNY Mellon’s business, so managers are seeking additional sources of revenue.

BNY Mellon is Losing Money

Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) is losing money as its revenues fall.

For instance, BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) reported a quarterly operating loss of -$296 million on 30 September 2022. The quarterly operating income fell from $1.095 billion on 30 June 2022 and $1.162 billion on 30 September 2021.

Similarly, Mellon’s quarterly gross profit fell from $4.035 billion on 30 September 2021 and $4.254 billion on 30 June 2022 to $3.353 billion on 30 September 2022. Thus, BNY Mellon needs more revenue, income, and profit that digital assets could provide.

Conversely, BNY Mellon’s quarterly operating cash flow grew from $2.829 billion on 30 September 2021 to $3.429 billion on 30 June 2022 to $4.99 billion on 30 September 2022. In contrast, BNY Mellon’s quarterly ending cash flow fell from $101 million on 30 September 2021 to $82 million on 30 September 2022.

BNY Mellon is a Cash-Rich Company

BNY (BK) is a cash-rich company. For example, BNY Mellon reported a quarterly ending cash flow of $9.544 billion on 30 June 2022.

Impressively, BNY Mellon reported a quarterly financing cash flow of $30.095 billion on 30 June 2022. There were also quarterly investing cash flows of $19.931 billion on 31 March 2021 and $9.306 billion on 30 September 2022.

However, BNY Mellon pays off enormous amounts of debt. It reported quarterly financing cash flows of -$14.538 billion on 30 September 2022 and -$24.127 billion on 31 March 2022. Impressively, BNY Mellon’s total debts fell from $63.785 billion on 30 September 2021 to $28.177 billion on 30 September 2022.

Another reason BNY Mellon is moving into digital assets is that it has less cash. For instance, the cash and short-term investments fell from $200.119 billion on 30 September 2021 to $162.157 billion on 30 September 2022.

I consider BNY Mellon a value investment because it has enormous amounts of cash, growing cash flow, and shrinking debts. It’s also entering new markets such as digital assets custody that could generate enormous amounts of cash.

What Value does BNY Mellon (BK) have?

Moreover, BNY Mellon’s value is shrinking. For example, the total assets fell from $470.533 billion on 30 September 2021 to $427.953 billion on 30 September 2022.

Hence, another reason BNY Mellon (BK) is entering digital asset management is shrinking value. However, I think BNY Mellon is a value investment. This is a company with $427.953 billion in assets and a $42.10 stock price on 9 November 2022.

Plus, BNY Mellon pays an impressive dividend. For instance, BK Mellon has scheduled nine 37₵ dividends between 10 November 2022 and 12 November 2024. Overall, BNY Mellon shares delivered a $1.48 forward dividend and a 3.52% dividend yield on 9 November 2022.

If you are seeking a dividend-paying stock that could profit from cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, CBDCs, and other digital assets, BNY Mellon is worth examining.

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Pyth Network (PYTH) To Rally Higher? This Emerging Fractal Setup Saying Yes!

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

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PYTH Mirrors SKL’s Breakout Structure

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For the bullish fractal to fully play out, PYTH will need to close decisively above the $0.1235–$0.1481 zone, ideally on rising volume. A confirmed breakout could open the door to the first upside target of $0.21, representing roughly 78% potential gains from current levels.

However, confirmation is key. Until PYTH clears these moving average hurdles, it remains vulnerable to extended consolidation or even a false breakout. Still, the fractal similarity to SKL is hard to overlook — and if history repeats, PYTH bulls could be on the verge of a major move.

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August 16, 2025

Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎

👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

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thedinarian@thedinarian

August 02, 2025

Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics:

The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

Crypto Season:
- Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
- Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
- Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
Crypto Alt Season:
- Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
- Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
- Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
- May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

Current Status (August 2025):

The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.
Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

Key Indicators to Watch:

Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.
Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.
Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.
Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

Expert Predictions for 2025:

Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.
There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

Signal	Alt Season Trigger	Status (Aug 2025)
Altcoin Season Index (ASI)	>75	~37
Bitcoin dominance	<60%	~61–62% (near trigger)
Altcoin trading volume	Sustained surge across many alts	Rising, but not explosive
Ethereum outperformance	ETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700	Near, ETH ~$3,500
Market narratives	AI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows	Strengthening

Bottom Line:
Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon. This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications.

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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