The case pitting blockchain firm Ripple and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is nearing a conclusion, with both parties having presented their final submissions. Notably, in the course of the hearing, Ripple has recorded minor wins, with the presiding judge ruling in favor of the firm on specific elements. 

Interestingly, based on the favorable ruling, several legal experts have maintained that Ripple stands a chance of winning the case. In particular, United States attorney Jeremy Hogan has predicted possible outcomes ahead of the verdict, noting that there is a chance for both parties to emerge victorious, he said in a YouTube video posted on December 9.

Below are Hogan’s four possible outcomes from the Ripple vs SEC case.

Ruling 1: Ripple wins 

In his first prediction, Hogan noted that Ripple could win if the summary judgment reads that XRP was not sold as a security. He noted that the basis for the prediction was that Ripple has no legal obligations to the purchaser of XRP. According to Hogan: 

However, he cautioned that Ripple might win based on the legal obligation argument if it appeals the case. 

Ruling 2: Ripple loses

In his second prediction, Hogan cautioned that despite the public perception that Ripple might win the case, the company stands a significant chance of losing the suit. He noted that the chance of Ripple losing stands at almost 30%.

He suggested that the judge could rule in favor of the SEC if the evidence by the regulator proves that Ripple used the sales from XRP to build its business of powering cross-border payments. 

“The one thing the SEC did a good job of in its earlier briefs is laying out all of the statements, emails, and YouTube videos of various Ripple employees talking about the price of XRP. I mean, they had eight years worth of work from. Judge Torres would look at all those statements and agree with the SEC,” Hogan added. 

Furthermore, Hogan pointed out that if Ripple loses the case, the company can withstand the financial storm that might ensue. 

Ruling 3: A draw 

In fact, Hogan stated that the case could go to a draw, noting that there is a 19.1% chance the judge could not rule in favor of either party and ‘split the baby.’

“Judge Torres splits the baby and decides that early sales of XRP were sales of securities, but at some point, the sales lose that designation and become a non-security sale,” he added. 

However, with the implication of the case on the general cryptocurrency market, Hogan pointed out that the possibility of the case going into a draw is minor. He believes that the judge needs to make a reasoned judgment based on the evidence submitted by both parties. 

Ruling 4: Unexpected ruling

In his final prediction, the attorney noted that there is always room for the judge to issue an unexpected verdict, noting it’s something common in litigations. 

“The fourth possibility would be something no one has really contemplated, and that does happen in litigation sometimes. In conclusion, the legal brief’s official lawsuit prediction is a 50.12% chance of Ripple winning a 29.88% chance the SEC wins,” Hogan concluded. 

Indeed, crypto market enthusiasts are closely monitoring how the case outcome will impact the price of Ripple’s native token, XRP. It is worth noting that XRP has recorded minor gains in the past whenever the court ruled in favor of the blockchain firm. 

Part of the wins for Ripple includes the judge’s ruling to allow the presentation of documents linked to former SEC Division Director William Hinman. The documents entailed a speech by Hinman where he said Ethereum (ETH) was a security. 

At the same time, Ripple rallied after the court accepted supportive briefs from companies utilizing the XRP technology and cryptocurrency industry groups. 

Furthermore, Ripple appears to be ignoring the legal troubles, with investors continuing to show trust in the company. As reported by Finbold, Ripple has attained a valuation of $15 billion to emerge as the 10th largest startup in the United States and the only crypto firm in the top ten list.

XRP price analysis

As things stand, XRP is changing hands at $0.39 with daily losses of about $0.5%. 

Notably, the case ruling will likely be a bullish sentiment for XRP if the court rules in favor of Ripple. However, XRP is likely to correct if the case goes against the firm. 

At the moment, XRP’s momentum towards the crucial $0.50 has been derailed by the general crypto market consolidations. Additionally, with no positive news from the Ripple case, XRP continues to trade below the crucial $.40 support position. If XRP breaches the level, bulls need to step up and push the token to $0.45.

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