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Power of Payments Ep. 24: Talking FedNow and real-time payments with Bottomline’s Jessica Cheney
March 01, 2023
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  • Jessica Cheney, VP of Product – Digital Banking Solutions at Bottomline Technologies, joins host Ismail Umar on this week’s podcast.
  • She discusses the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US, and how the launch of FedNow is going to impact the banking industry.

Welcome back to the Power of Payments podcast. I’m your host Ismail Umar, and today I’m joined by Jessica Cheney, VP of Product for the Digital Banking Solutions group at Bottomline Technologies.

Jessica has been with Bottomline for over a decade. Prior to that, she held similar roles at a number of other fintechs, and was also part of the commercial product management group at US Bank. She has been involved with real-time payments for many years now, and says she has a comprehensive outlook on how payments impact financial services from a commercial, fintech, and retail perspective.

In our conversation today, Jessica discusses the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US, and how the launch of FedNow – the Federal Reserve's instant payment service – is going to impact the banking industry. She also talks about how SMBs can use real-time payments to improve their day-to-day operations, and the overall impact that RTP adoption will likely have on banks, businesses, and consumers in the coming years.

The following excerpts were edited for clarity.

I lead the product management function for the banking segment of Bottomline Technologies. I've been there for about 11 years now. Prior to that, I was in similar roles at other fintech companies – S1 and Clear2Pay, most notably. I’ve also worked directly in the financial services industry in several areas. I was part of the commercial product management group at US Bank, and led the retail group at Skowhegan Savings Bank. So I sort of have a very comprehensive perspective on how payments impact the financial services world from a commercial perspective, a fintech perspective, and a retail perspective. I've also been involved with real-time payments since its conceptual launch with the Federal Reserve, for several years now. That really sparked my interest with the Fed Task Force, and I've been really involved in the industry ever since.

Given your expertise, what would you say is the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US compared to other parts of the world?

I think that, to answer that question, it really depends on how clinical we’re going to be in using the term ‘real-time payments.’ And that is a concept that's applicable in the US and throughout the world. The term is really an umbrella that covers many payment options, especially in the US: P2P payments from Zelle, Cash App, Venmo, Same Day ACH supported by NACHA, the Fed, and The Clearing House, RTP launched by The Clearing House in November 2017, and now FedNow launching the instant payment network that's coming live this summer. In general, to answer your question, I would describe this as an industry that’s continuing to grow, though a bit more slowly lately. The P2P space continues to drive most volume and growth. Zelle reported over 550 million transactions, representing the movement of over $155 billion in June. That’s a 27% growth from 2021. Venmo is reporting more than $63 billion moved in Q3, a 6% growth over their record year in 2021.

Now, Same Day ACH, and ACH in general in the US, is continuing to grow. It saw 6% growth in Q3, with Same Day seeing the most increase in use. There were 176 million Same Day ACH payments made. And that's a huge, 102% increase since Q3 2021. The RTP network has also seen huge growth, reporting 49 million transactions in Q4, moving about $22 billion, another 9% growth over Q3.

When I really dig into this a little bit deeper, though, I think that there are some things driving this. There's a recent American banking article that noted disbursements and rent payments are among the fastest-growing Zelle use cases. And that kind of indicates that more users are relying on Zelle’s speed to make last-minute billing deadlines. The number of companies including insurance providers, education and government agencies, using Zelle to transfer funds also dramatically increased, 87% in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the year before. So while all this growth seems impressive, I think the industry is actually on the brink of truly having breakout adoption. There’s a saying that goes, ‘A rising tide lifts all boats.’ This tide is growing in the RTP industry, aided by the FedNow launch, as well as more B2C and B2B adoption. The current economic condition is also ripe for assisting growth in real-time payments as personal and corporate liquidity management becomes more and more important.

Can you share your thoughts on the kind of impact FedNow is going to have on the financial industry?

The biggest thing is that the Fed has for a very long time been seen as the preferred payment network provider. And that's probably based on their perceived stability and competitive neutral reach to all financial institutions. The Clearing House, for example, has roughly 280 participating banks. The Fed has a built-in customer base of over 9000 financial institutions that FedNow will now be offered to. That sheer jump in volume of banks reached that will have access to real-time or instant payments will lead to a really game-changing adoption in the future. The launch of the FedNow service also removes the “let's wait and see” excuse that some banks have used when it comes to real-time payments. Many until this point have seen RTP as only the purview of the largest banks in the US. Just as an aside, The Clearing House members that were initial drivers of RTP, and those member banks, are among the largest in the US. What the launch of FedNow does is make RTP mainstream in America. The Fed and NACHA launched ACH and direct deposit in the mid-70s, and that helped make ACH mainstream. Today, 94% of Americans get paid that way. FedNow has the potential to do the same thing with real-time or instant payments.

Once FedNow is launched, do you expect to see rapid adoption of real-time payments in the US, or do you think it will slowly build up over time?

Unfortunately, I think at least the next couple of years, we will continue to see a little bit of a slow adoption curve. And then we will reach a major launching point where we will have critical mass in both receivers and senders of real-time transactions. Too many banks have waded into this pool as receivers only, and not enough have jumped into the deep end to be senders as well. And you really can't have a network that is full of receivers but not senders and be successful.

Another unknown factor in how much interoperability will occur between these two networks will really impact adoption. Once we know that, and though the interoperability between the two networks is established, that's the linchpin of growth going forward. The networks have both been set up for interoperability, and they’re using similar message sets, similar operating guidelines and value propositions. But actual interoperability remains to be improved between the two.

A key point here is that eventually, the demand that we're seeing in the P2P space will also push into the business payments space. That, along with FedNow's reach, will really push adoption rates along. When payments become mainstream, their value is more widely understood, and that obviously drives demand as well.

Do you think there is a sufficient level of awareness among American businesses about what adopting real-time payments would mean for them? And what do you think is most important for FIs and businesses to understand about adopting real-time payments?

Unfortunately, I think the comprehension level of the value of RTP remains low. I’ll share a story with you. I was talking to a CFO of a midsize fintech about RTP about 18 months ago. And his initial question to me was, ‘Why on earth would I want to pay invoice faster? I want to hold on to my cash.’ So I went on to explain that RTP is actually the liquidity and cash management tool that helps him do that better than any other payment type out there. RTP lets you wait till the absolute last minute to pay an invoice, and either take advantage of payment terms offered or to get shipments released and delivered when needed.

I think lots of energy is now going into the education and benefits for businesses to use RTP to make payments, and RFP, request for payments, to get paid. First and foremost, I think that RTP and RFP are key business operating tools for small businesses. They help with liquidity management, financial planning, customer service, and efficiencies in both the accounts receivable and accounts payable processes.

First of all, liquidity management. As I mentioned before, RTP allows small businesses who are managing their cash really tightly to make payments at the absolute last minute. Sure, they can be scheduled in advance, but when cash is tight and you need to pay a vendor just in time, RTP provides that. RFP, or request for payment, is the ability to send an electronic invoice and request a real-time payment in response. This can really streamline the invoice to collection process for any small business and aid in reducing collection time. It is also a very cost-efficient way to send electronic invoices. Many merchant services providers are now offering instant settlement, providing access to funds immediately, which helps small businesses meet their immediate cash flow needs. What these merchant services are doing is, at the end of any particular sales period, where the small business will close out their credit card sales for the day, the merchant service company is providing settlement to these small businesses via RTP. On the flip side of this, RTP can also be used for instant payroll, and it can help many small businesses attract employees in this highly competitive labor market.

The other part of this that I haven't really talked about before is the fact that real-time payments can also have an accompanying real-time acknowledgment, meaning a payment that has been made by RTP can be acknowledged by the receiver. And that can also aid in reducing some of the financial anxiety that many small businesses are facing when they make just-in-time payments.

How do you think the current macroeconomic conditions and market volatility will impact the adoption and effectiveness of real-time payments?

I think that it’s absolutely going to have an impact. We don't have to look too far to see proof of that. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of cashless, contactless, and real-time payments grew like crazy. You just have to look at the volumes from Zelle, Venmo, and Cash App to see that impact. But today's economic conditions are driving consumers and businesses away from wanting to use credit or credit cards as means of payment – the interest rate’s just way too high. Companies and consumers alike do need to wait till the last minute to make key payments for things like rent and utilities, but they also need the financial certainty that these last-minute payments have been acknowledged. And RTP can do that.

Looking into the future, what kind of impact do you think the adoption of real-time payments is going to have on banks, businesses and consumers in the coming years?

I really think that RTP is the next revolution in payments. I think it’ll be a soft change. We've evolved into real-time payments in the P2P space being mainstream. And that will continue to flow into the B2B and B2C aspects of this industry. Financial institutions are already making investments to take advantage of this. It’s just going to be the next expectation, just like the expectation we have that the phones we carry in our pockets are mini-computers and basically can do everything that we want to be done instantaneously. That's the natural evolution and the next wave of payments in the industry.

There's a couple of things that I did want to mention, though. I think that people get hung up on the speed of these payments. But there are other aspects of RTP that also add value. The added value to this also takes advantage of some of the other things that we've grown very accustomed to. And that’s the instant communication that goes along with these payment types. There’s the ability to have these real-time payments instantly acknowledged. There are communication vehicles built into the payment rails that allow the sender and receiver to communicate with each other about questions that they have, either about the amounts that have been received or the amounts that have been requested to be paid. Again, it kind of takes what’s become very mainstream in our personal lives, with the use of instant messaging and texting, and goes along with the natural change in payments that’s occurring. I think that's the key to why RTP is the next revolution in payments.

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PYTH NETWORK IS FINALLY IN THE TOP 100

The universe confirms with an 888

❤️ the synchronicity ✨️

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$MYX is the native token of @MYX_Finance, a 👉 Pyth pilled perpetual DEX, and its feed is now live across 100+ blockchains.

https://x.com/PythNetwork/status/1958892001346429006

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Pyth Network (PYTH) To Rally Higher? This Emerging Fractal Setup Saying Yes!

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

But while the short-term dip might look discouraging, PYTH’s chart is showing something far more interesting: a price structure that mirrors the exact same bullish breakout pattern that sent Skale (SKL) soaring by triple digits earlier this month.

PYTH Mirrors SKL’s Breakout Structure

A glance at SKL’s daily chart reveals a textbook falling wedge formation — a well-known bullish reversal pattern. Once SKL broke above the wedge and printed a higher high followed by a higher low, it flipped both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages into firm support. That technical shift triggered a 148% rally in just days.

PYTH appears to be tracing the same path.

Like SKL, PYTH has already broken out from its falling wedge and formed a higher high and higher low. It is now consolidating just beneath a critical confluence of resistance, with the 100-day MA at $0.1235 and the 200-day MA at $0.1481 — a setup eerily similar to SKL’s pre-breakout structure.

What’s Next for PYTH?

For the bullish fractal to fully play out, PYTH will need to close decisively above the $0.1235–$0.1481 zone, ideally on rising volume. A confirmed breakout could open the door to the first upside target of $0.21, representing roughly 78% potential gains from current levels.

However, confirmation is key. Until PYTH clears these moving average hurdles, it remains vulnerable to extended consolidation or even a false breakout. Still, the fractal similarity to SKL is hard to overlook — and if history repeats, PYTH bulls could be on the verge of a major move.

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Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎
👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

  • Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
  • Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
  • Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

  • Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
  • Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
  • Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

  • Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
  • Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
  • Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

  • Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
  • Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

  1. Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
  2. Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

  • Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
  • Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

  • Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
  • Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
  • Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
  • Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
  • Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

 

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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