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Power of Payments Ep. 24: Talking FedNow and real-time payments with Bottomline’s Jessica Cheney
March 01, 2023
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  • Jessica Cheney, VP of Product – Digital Banking Solutions at Bottomline Technologies, joins host Ismail Umar on this week’s podcast.
  • She discusses the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US, and how the launch of FedNow is going to impact the banking industry.

Welcome back to the Power of Payments podcast. I’m your host Ismail Umar, and today I’m joined by Jessica Cheney, VP of Product for the Digital Banking Solutions group at Bottomline Technologies.

Jessica has been with Bottomline for over a decade. Prior to that, she held similar roles at a number of other fintechs, and was also part of the commercial product management group at US Bank. She has been involved with real-time payments for many years now, and says she has a comprehensive outlook on how payments impact financial services from a commercial, fintech, and retail perspective.

In our conversation today, Jessica discusses the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US, and how the launch of FedNow – the Federal Reserve's instant payment service – is going to impact the banking industry. She also talks about how SMBs can use real-time payments to improve their day-to-day operations, and the overall impact that RTP adoption will likely have on banks, businesses, and consumers in the coming years.

The following excerpts were edited for clarity.

I lead the product management function for the banking segment of Bottomline Technologies. I've been there for about 11 years now. Prior to that, I was in similar roles at other fintech companies – S1 and Clear2Pay, most notably. I’ve also worked directly in the financial services industry in several areas. I was part of the commercial product management group at US Bank, and led the retail group at Skowhegan Savings Bank. So I sort of have a very comprehensive perspective on how payments impact the financial services world from a commercial perspective, a fintech perspective, and a retail perspective. I've also been involved with real-time payments since its conceptual launch with the Federal Reserve, for several years now. That really sparked my interest with the Fed Task Force, and I've been really involved in the industry ever since.

Given your expertise, what would you say is the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US compared to other parts of the world?

I think that, to answer that question, it really depends on how clinical we’re going to be in using the term ‘real-time payments.’ And that is a concept that's applicable in the US and throughout the world. The term is really an umbrella that covers many payment options, especially in the US: P2P payments from Zelle, Cash App, Venmo, Same Day ACH supported by NACHA, the Fed, and The Clearing House, RTP launched by The Clearing House in November 2017, and now FedNow launching the instant payment network that's coming live this summer. In general, to answer your question, I would describe this as an industry that’s continuing to grow, though a bit more slowly lately. The P2P space continues to drive most volume and growth. Zelle reported over 550 million transactions, representing the movement of over $155 billion in June. That’s a 27% growth from 2021. Venmo is reporting more than $63 billion moved in Q3, a 6% growth over their record year in 2021.

Now, Same Day ACH, and ACH in general in the US, is continuing to grow. It saw 6% growth in Q3, with Same Day seeing the most increase in use. There were 176 million Same Day ACH payments made. And that's a huge, 102% increase since Q3 2021. The RTP network has also seen huge growth, reporting 49 million transactions in Q4, moving about $22 billion, another 9% growth over Q3.

When I really dig into this a little bit deeper, though, I think that there are some things driving this. There's a recent American banking article that noted disbursements and rent payments are among the fastest-growing Zelle use cases. And that kind of indicates that more users are relying on Zelle’s speed to make last-minute billing deadlines. The number of companies including insurance providers, education and government agencies, using Zelle to transfer funds also dramatically increased, 87% in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the year before. So while all this growth seems impressive, I think the industry is actually on the brink of truly having breakout adoption. There’s a saying that goes, ‘A rising tide lifts all boats.’ This tide is growing in the RTP industry, aided by the FedNow launch, as well as more B2C and B2B adoption. The current economic condition is also ripe for assisting growth in real-time payments as personal and corporate liquidity management becomes more and more important.

Can you share your thoughts on the kind of impact FedNow is going to have on the financial industry?

The biggest thing is that the Fed has for a very long time been seen as the preferred payment network provider. And that's probably based on their perceived stability and competitive neutral reach to all financial institutions. The Clearing House, for example, has roughly 280 participating banks. The Fed has a built-in customer base of over 9000 financial institutions that FedNow will now be offered to. That sheer jump in volume of banks reached that will have access to real-time or instant payments will lead to a really game-changing adoption in the future. The launch of the FedNow service also removes the “let's wait and see” excuse that some banks have used when it comes to real-time payments. Many until this point have seen RTP as only the purview of the largest banks in the US. Just as an aside, The Clearing House members that were initial drivers of RTP, and those member banks, are among the largest in the US. What the launch of FedNow does is make RTP mainstream in America. The Fed and NACHA launched ACH and direct deposit in the mid-70s, and that helped make ACH mainstream. Today, 94% of Americans get paid that way. FedNow has the potential to do the same thing with real-time or instant payments.

Once FedNow is launched, do you expect to see rapid adoption of real-time payments in the US, or do you think it will slowly build up over time?

Unfortunately, I think at least the next couple of years, we will continue to see a little bit of a slow adoption curve. And then we will reach a major launching point where we will have critical mass in both receivers and senders of real-time transactions. Too many banks have waded into this pool as receivers only, and not enough have jumped into the deep end to be senders as well. And you really can't have a network that is full of receivers but not senders and be successful.

Another unknown factor in how much interoperability will occur between these two networks will really impact adoption. Once we know that, and though the interoperability between the two networks is established, that's the linchpin of growth going forward. The networks have both been set up for interoperability, and they’re using similar message sets, similar operating guidelines and value propositions. But actual interoperability remains to be improved between the two.

A key point here is that eventually, the demand that we're seeing in the P2P space will also push into the business payments space. That, along with FedNow's reach, will really push adoption rates along. When payments become mainstream, their value is more widely understood, and that obviously drives demand as well.

Do you think there is a sufficient level of awareness among American businesses about what adopting real-time payments would mean for them? And what do you think is most important for FIs and businesses to understand about adopting real-time payments?

Unfortunately, I think the comprehension level of the value of RTP remains low. I’ll share a story with you. I was talking to a CFO of a midsize fintech about RTP about 18 months ago. And his initial question to me was, ‘Why on earth would I want to pay invoice faster? I want to hold on to my cash.’ So I went on to explain that RTP is actually the liquidity and cash management tool that helps him do that better than any other payment type out there. RTP lets you wait till the absolute last minute to pay an invoice, and either take advantage of payment terms offered or to get shipments released and delivered when needed.

I think lots of energy is now going into the education and benefits for businesses to use RTP to make payments, and RFP, request for payments, to get paid. First and foremost, I think that RTP and RFP are key business operating tools for small businesses. They help with liquidity management, financial planning, customer service, and efficiencies in both the accounts receivable and accounts payable processes.

First of all, liquidity management. As I mentioned before, RTP allows small businesses who are managing their cash really tightly to make payments at the absolute last minute. Sure, they can be scheduled in advance, but when cash is tight and you need to pay a vendor just in time, RTP provides that. RFP, or request for payment, is the ability to send an electronic invoice and request a real-time payment in response. This can really streamline the invoice to collection process for any small business and aid in reducing collection time. It is also a very cost-efficient way to send electronic invoices. Many merchant services providers are now offering instant settlement, providing access to funds immediately, which helps small businesses meet their immediate cash flow needs. What these merchant services are doing is, at the end of any particular sales period, where the small business will close out their credit card sales for the day, the merchant service company is providing settlement to these small businesses via RTP. On the flip side of this, RTP can also be used for instant payroll, and it can help many small businesses attract employees in this highly competitive labor market.

The other part of this that I haven't really talked about before is the fact that real-time payments can also have an accompanying real-time acknowledgment, meaning a payment that has been made by RTP can be acknowledged by the receiver. And that can also aid in reducing some of the financial anxiety that many small businesses are facing when they make just-in-time payments.

How do you think the current macroeconomic conditions and market volatility will impact the adoption and effectiveness of real-time payments?

I think that it’s absolutely going to have an impact. We don't have to look too far to see proof of that. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of cashless, contactless, and real-time payments grew like crazy. You just have to look at the volumes from Zelle, Venmo, and Cash App to see that impact. But today's economic conditions are driving consumers and businesses away from wanting to use credit or credit cards as means of payment – the interest rate’s just way too high. Companies and consumers alike do need to wait till the last minute to make key payments for things like rent and utilities, but they also need the financial certainty that these last-minute payments have been acknowledged. And RTP can do that.

Looking into the future, what kind of impact do you think the adoption of real-time payments is going to have on banks, businesses and consumers in the coming years?

I really think that RTP is the next revolution in payments. I think it’ll be a soft change. We've evolved into real-time payments in the P2P space being mainstream. And that will continue to flow into the B2B and B2C aspects of this industry. Financial institutions are already making investments to take advantage of this. It’s just going to be the next expectation, just like the expectation we have that the phones we carry in our pockets are mini-computers and basically can do everything that we want to be done instantaneously. That's the natural evolution and the next wave of payments in the industry.

There's a couple of things that I did want to mention, though. I think that people get hung up on the speed of these payments. But there are other aspects of RTP that also add value. The added value to this also takes advantage of some of the other things that we've grown very accustomed to. And that’s the instant communication that goes along with these payment types. There’s the ability to have these real-time payments instantly acknowledged. There are communication vehicles built into the payment rails that allow the sender and receiver to communicate with each other about questions that they have, either about the amounts that have been received or the amounts that have been requested to be paid. Again, it kind of takes what’s become very mainstream in our personal lives, with the use of instant messaging and texting, and goes along with the natural change in payments that’s occurring. I think that's the key to why RTP is the next revolution in payments.

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They don't want you healthy, But they don't want you dead either. They just want you sick!

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Full Video Presentation: Dr. Jack Kruse / Nourish Vermont 2017
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Continued Learning:👇📚
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🚨Beware Authentication Scam!!!🚨

Scammers have found a new way to exploit those "Verify you're human" captchas. If a prompt asks you to type in a series of commands (like Windows + R followed by Control V), DO NOT DO IT.

This isn't a security check—it's a trick to force you to download and run malware on your device. 💻☣️

Once they have your credentials, they can:
📧 Steal your email account.
🏦 Access your banking and shopping info.

How to stay safe:
✅ Real human verification will never ask you to type in complex system commands. They'll only ask for letters, numbers, or to click on a picture.
✅ If you’ve already done this, disconnect from the internet immediately, run a malware scan from a different device, and update your passwords. 🛡️

Stay vigilant out there! 🛡️⚠️

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Chutes is gaining attention as a decentralized AI inference platform that claims to combine real usage, cryptographic verification, confidential computing, and open-source infrastructure into a working production system. The thesis is simple: instead of trusting Big Tech clouds with AI workloads, users get a distributed compute layer built around verification and privacy.

🔑 Key points

🔹 Chutes is live in production and reportedly scaled to more than 1,170 active GPU nodes, including large numbers of Nvidia H200s and Blackwell-class hardware.

🔹 The platform says it has processed nearly 38 trillion tokens since launch across 53 deployed applications and more than 700,000 registered users.

🔹 The team reportedly cut unprofitable usage programs, reduced total token volume, and still improved revenue efficiency, with revenue per GPU rising sharply after removing subsidized traffic.

🔹 Chutes is using post-quantum cryptography, trusted execution environments, and Nvidia confidential ...

🚨 Chutes is being framed as a Hyperliquid-style breakout for decentralized AI inference, with live revenue, verified GPU infrastructure, and a direct challenge to centralized cloud AI 🚨
🚨 JPMorgan’s criticism of the CLARITY Act is fueling a fresh power struggle over who gets to write America’s crypto rules 🚨

A new clash is emerging between legacy finance and crypto legislation after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reportedly warned that the CLARITY Act could let crypto firms offer bank-like products without bank-level oversight. The dispute is quickly turning into a larger fight over regulation, competitiveness, and who controls the future architecture of digital finance in the United States.

🔑 Key points

🔹 Jamie Dimon reportedly called the CLARITY Act a threat to the financial system, arguing it could allow crypto firms to offer yield-like products while avoiding the capital, reserve, and oversight burdens traditional banks face.

🔹 Senator Cynthia Lummis pushed back publicly, framing the issue as a global strategic race and warning that if the U.S. does not set digital asset standards, other powers will.

🔹 The core tension is whether the bill creates legitimate regulatory clarity or simply opens the door to regulatory arbitrage for crypto platforms operating outside the traditional banking...

🚨 JPMorgan’s criticism of the CLARITY Act is fueling a fresh power struggle over who gets to write America’s crypto rules 🚨
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Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

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💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🚨 Spot HYPE ETFs near $900 million in volume as early demand signals strong institutional interest 🚨

Spot HYPE ETFs are off to a hot start, with trading volume reportedly nearing $900 million as investors pile in early. The strong launch suggests that institutions are paying attention to Hyperliquid exposure in ETF form.

🔑 Key highlights:

🔹️ Spot HYPE ETF volume has nearly reached $900 million early in its launch window.

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🔹️ HYPE is increasingly being viewed as a serious market asset rather than just a niche crypto trade.

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🚨 BIG NEWS: Root Reborn #2759 dropped on Github.

Simply put: $TAO's Root Reborn changes root staking from a Sell Machine into a Reinvestment Machine

Right now, root staking earns yield by taking subnet dividends and automatically selling them back into $TAO.

That means every block, root yield, creates sell pressure on the very subnet tokens that are supposed to give $TAO value.

So Root Reborn changes that.

Instead of dumping subnet alpha into $TAO, validators would choose where that root yield gets reinvested across subnets.

So the flow changes from:

Subnet Dividends = Auto-Sold into $TAO to Subnet Dividends, Reinvested Into Subnet Baskets, which Compounds Over Time.

This could change everything.

It reduces automatic sell pressure on subnets.

It creates more buy pressure for selected subnets.

It lets root yield compound instead of leaking out.

It makes validators more important again because they actively curate where capital goes.

It makes $TAO’s Risk-Free Rate cleaner because the yield is backed by ...

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Bittensor $TAO ripped 30%+ in a week 🚀

10 Bittensor Subnets worth watching

1️⃣ Chutes (SN64)

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2️⃣ Targon (SN4)

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  • $10.5M Series A raised
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3️⃣ Ridges AI (SN62)

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4️⃣ Gradients (SN56)

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5️⃣ Lium (SN51)

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6️⃣ Hippius (SN75)

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7️⃣ NOVA (SN68)

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How USDC Wins the Hyperliquid Deal🤔
 
USDC "wins" the Hyperliquid deal by securing dominant distribution and deeper integration into one of crypto's fastest-growing on-chain perpetuals platforms, in exchange for sharing most of the USDC reserve yield (up to ~90%) back with Hyperliquid.
 
Background on the Deal: Hyperliquid had ~$5–6B in USDC deposits (a huge chunk of total USDC supply, often cited around 7–8%). Previously, the interest/yield on those reserves (~$180–250M annually at prevailing rates) mostly flowed to Circle (issuer) and Coinbase (key partner/treasury handler), with little returning to Hyperliquid.
 
In late 2025, Hyperliquid ran an RFP for a native stablecoin (USDH) to capture that revenue. Native Markets won the community vote, and USDH launched as an "Aligned Quote Asset" (AQA).
 

In May 2026, Native Markets sold USDH brand assets to Coinbase. USDH is being sunsetted over time (with feeless conversions/redemptions to USDC/fiat), and USDC becomes the primary/official Aligned Quote Asset on Hyperliquid. Coinbase acts as the main treasury deployer; Circle handles minting, redemptions, and cross-chain (e.g., CCTP).

 

How USDC Wins: 🔑 Key Advantages

Massive, sticky distribution in a high-growth venue: Hyperliquid is a leading on-chain perp DEX. USDC gains preferred status as the quote asset for most trading pairs, reducing friction vs. bridging/swapping other stables. This concentrates liquidity, improves efficiency, and funnels more capital flows through USDC.

  • Deep on-chain integration: Builds on prior Native USDC + CCTP launches. Coinbase's involvement adds fiat on/off-ramps and institutional trust. USDC was already dominant (~95% of stables on the platform); this formalizes and expands it.
  • Regulatory and brand alignment: Ties USDC to a high-profile, high-volume platform at a time when USDC has gained transaction volume momentum (surpassing USDT in some months post-regulatory clarity like GENIUS). It strengthens USDC's positioning vs. USDT (which dominates on centralized venues like Binance).
  • Longer-term consolidation play: Analysts see this as part of stablecoin market consolidation around established players with liquidity and infrastructure. Fewer conversion layers = better efficiency for USDC.
     

The Trade-Off (and Hyperliquid's Win)Hyperliquid gets ~90% of the reserve yield (estimates: $135–160M+ annually at current balances, potentially scaling to $300–500M with growth), funneled into protocol revenue/HYPE buybacks. This is roughly double what they got from USDH and turns stablecoin balances into a resilient revenue stream (less volatile than trading fees).

For Circle/Coinbase, they give up a big share of yield (analysts estimate $60–80M hit to combined EBITDA) but retain/expand USDC's role as the backbone stable on a major platform. It's a strategic distribution win over building or competing with a new native coin.

 
🎯Bottom Line: USDC trades some margin for premier, high-volume real estate in perpetuals/DeFi trading—the exact use case driving massive on-chain dollar demand. This cements its lead in the evolving stablecoin wars, especially as platforms demand better economics. The deal highlights shifting power dynamics: big platforms now negotiate hard for yield share.

 

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Handshake Wants to Be the Front Door to Bittensor’s Agent Economy

In this Beanstock interview, Harry Jackson of Subnet 58 (Handshake) lays out a thesis that’s worth understanding even if you never buy a single SN58 alpha token. He also explained where Bittensor’s agentic layer is heading.

We wrote the high-value distillation:

The one-line thesis

Handshake wants to be the front door to the agent economy on Bittensor. The Amazon-like gateway where AI agents discover, pay for, and stack together skills from across all 128 subnets.

Why this matters now
  • There’s a critical distinction Harry emphasized: AI is intelligence, but agents need tooling. An LLM without payment rails, plugins, and workflow infrastructure is “a young person trying to cut a tree down with a pen knife.”
  • Agent-to-agent commerce is on the edge of going viral. Harry’s prediction for the tipping point: a woman in her 40s lets her agent do her shopping end-to-end (research, stock check, autonomous payment), posts it to social media, and it becomes the “four-minute mile” moment everyone copies.
  • Bittensor is uniquely positioned because agents don’t care about marketing or pretty UIs. They only care about best-in-class products and services. That’s exactly what Bittensor’s 128 subnets produce.

The product reality (what’s currently shipping)

  • Handshake is live with paying users generating a few thousand USD in revenue as of today. The business model: 2% of every transaction on the platform.
  • The flywheel is Amazon-like: better skills → more agents arrive → providers get distribution → more skills get added → cycle repeats.
  • The headline product on the way is Axiom. This is an agent that trades subnets while you sleep. Built around the realization that what the Bittensor community wants from agents isn’t generic skills; it’s more TAO. Each “hole” they find in the agent becomes a new tradeable skill on the marketplace.

The investment angles (read these carefully)

  • The moat is data, not distribution. Every workflow run by an agent generates failure data, success data, payment data. No outside competitor can replicate that without running the marketplace itself.
  • The metric Harry tells you to judge them on is revenue. Not agent count. Not user count. Revenue, which is publicly visible on-chain via the front page of their site. He’s basically inviting investors to hold him to it.

  • The pitch for emissions: the biggest TAM in Bittensor is the agent market, and Handshake is the most integrated subnet, meaning if Handshake wins, the subnets it routes to all win too. Bullish on agents + bullish on Bittensor = bullish on Handshake by transitive logic.

Where Harry stands on the Conviction

  • On the conviction upgrade and locked alpha: he’s fine with it. Handshake is a revenue-focused company, so locked alpha isn’t a survival issue. He acknowledges it’ll be harder on research-stage subnets that need to raise external capital, but argues most subnet founders are thinking long-term, not short-term extraction.
  • On the broader vibe: he just got back from Bittensor events in Spain and San Francisco. He observed that the overwhelming reality of the ecosystem is people working hard to build the best products. “It’d be a lot easier in some ways to build a company outside of Bittensor.” The only reason to do it on Bittensor is if you actually want the moonshot.

Full interview below:

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🚨The State Of Bittensor (TAO)🚨
Greg Schvey | COO at Yuma Group

Last week at the @YumaGroup Summit I had the opportunity to present on The State of Bittensor. That presentation is in the thread below. If you choose to read it, I'd ask that you keep the following three things in mind:

  1. This is just one guy's view of what was the most relevant for a 25-minute talk; a difficult filter for such a dynamic industry.
  2. The slides were designed to supplement a talk; I've done my best to replicate what I recall of the talk in the accompanying X posts.
  3. The topic of the Summit was "The Tipping Point" - a candid assessment of what could lead to Bittensor's breakout success and what evidence we see of that today - which also thematically anchored this presentation.

Let's dive in:

We are in the most important race in human history – the race for intelligence itself. AI has advanced beyond the point of no return. As an example of what I mean: Ramp is a widely used financial services platform for companies. They looked at spending and revenue across their clients since the launch of ChatGPT: Companies who did not spend on AI have had flat revenue for the last three years. The top quartile of AI spenders have grown revenue by more than 100%.

We are already at the point where investing in AI is a matter of survival. But what exactly are we getting for the hundreds of billions being spent? Right now, its overwhelmingly going to corporations who have repeatedly shown they don’t have our best interest in mind.

 

 

Claude Opus 4.6 – the leading deep thinking model, had a measured hallucination rate of 16% in February. Then, without telling anyone, Anthropic throttled its reasoning – presumably to reduce GPU utilization – and didn’t tell anyone. Hallucinations climbed to 33% - a 98% increase.

They only admitted it after third party benchmarking proved it. And they were still charging everyone at the same price the whole time. Even since my talk last week, they've supposedly been found to be throttling people simply because HERMES.md was in their commits. You may say, "well there are solid open source options..."

 

 

Yes, open source models have gotten very good, but they’re not immune to capture either. Try asking DeepSeek what happened in Tiananmen Square and then let me know if that’s the intelligence you want to trust.

 

 

This needs to be addressed right now or it will be too late. To give you a sense of what I mean, this is a chart of the total annual commits on GitHub. That’s 500% growth since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. From 200M per year to a one billion in 2025. 2026 is on track for **14 billion** The genie is out of the bottle – there is no going back; we are already at the exponential inflection point.

This reminds me of many years ago: Bitcoin shined a light on how much our rights were impacted when we became dependent on private companies to run our day-to-day lives.

Your right to privacy? That doesn’t extend to your bank account. Your "money" is just a ledger at a private company, available for interrogation and suspension at any time. Bitcoin gave us back the sovereignty of our wealth.

Similarly, we’ve depended on things like privacy of our medical records and attorney client privilege for our entire lives. What do you think is going to happen when a private company’s servers are giving you legal and medical advice? Who are you going to trust for that intelligence? The company that lobotomized its top model? The model constrained by the foreign governments? As I said at the beginning, we’re in the most important race in human history and Bittensor well may be our best shot at winning.

 

 

One of the things about having a different model to produce intelligence is it requires an economic system suited to it. Subnets are the intelligence and economic engines that drive Bittensor’s value. That’s why the Summit was themed around The Tipping Point: understanding how subnets can reach breakout success and what we can do to help.

To summarize Bittensor's intelligence economics: miners create intelligence for which they earn subnet tokens. In many cases they sell those tokens to fund operations, putting downward pressure on token prices and decreasing the incentive to mine (similar to bitcoin). In parallel, if that intelligence is being used to generate real world value, one of the parties who benefits from that value (e.g. the Operator monetizing it, institutions using intelligence commodities to advance their research, etc.) can buy the subnet tokens to keep token prices elevated and sustain the miner incentive.

Investors get to participate in this process, often supporting token prices before the commercial value of intelligence is realized, and/or subsequently holding an asset that parties gaining fundamental value from the intelligence (eg Operator or others) will need to purchase at some point in the future if they want to maintain sufficient incentives for the intelligence machine to continue running.

For Bittensor to succeed, this value loop has to work. So, to understand the State of Bittensor, we have to take a look at how that’s going today and what that means for the network overall.

 

 

One of the many unique features of Bittensor is that subnets are native to the protocol. That is not the case on most crypto networks where the true utility lives in smart contracts with no direct tie to network value.

As an example, Polymarket has seen 800% growth in volume this year. Users can bet any arbitrarily large amount of value on Polymarket for a few cents of network fees. There is nothing tying that to value of the network’s native token, which is down 80% over the same period as Polymarket’s amazing success.

 

 

Conversely, Bittensor subnets are intrinsically linked to $TAO. If you want $1,000 worth of subnet exposure, you first need $1,000 of TAO. We analyzed subnet pool data surrounding the announcement of @tplr_ai's recent training run and normalized across them by indexing them to a starting level of 100.

As shown by the orange line, there was no material change in pool size for non-Templar subnets over the observation period. There was however, major inflow into Templar’s pool. Given Bittensor’s unique network model, we saw a direct correlation to the change in TAO price over the same period. As value flows into subnets, the whole network benefits. A rising boat lifts the tide, so to speak.

 

 

That can go both ways. When Sam left, we saw something similar in reverse; as value was exfiltrated from the network, it started in Covenant subnets and dragged TAO down with it. You know what else we saw in the data though? For all of the noise about concerns of Bittensor’s future, the other subnet pools were mostly unchanged.

The event was interesting because it reminded me of the early days of bitcoin: people would say Bitcoin was only used by drug dealers on the internet. I'd stare at them aghast because in the same breath they told me that an open, permissionless network was used to reliably move money anywhere in the world in minutes by the most untrustworthy people on the planet and yet they didn't understand how the technical feat required to achieve that would create tremendous value.

The Covenant situation is similar: people were concerned about the operator's exit, rather than realizing the only reason we care is because a ground-breaking technical innovation was achieved. But even bigger than that: Bittensor has 128 subnets currently, each striving to generate value for themselves and, transitively, the network as well.

 

 

And we’re seeing that occur – Templar was not unique in that regard. The same pattern emerged around the Intel publication on @TargonCompute. The non-Targon pools remained largely unchanged. Targon saw heavy inflows. TAO price climbed with it.

Again: rising boats lift the tide. And there are many boats in Bittensor right now.

 

 

We’re seeing major technical innovations at an increasing rate.

Just a few examples from the last couple weeks:

@QuasarModels just announced a custom attention architecture targeting 5M token context windows.
 
@IOTA_SN9 developed a technique that compresses data flowing between distributed GPUs by 128x with little to no loss in training quality, increasing viability of training large AI models across internet-connected machines worldwide.
 
We're seeing the building blocks start to form whereby competitive large generalized models can eventually be built. In the meantime, we're also witnessing more targeted, niche players start to pull ahead in their respective fields.
 
During the presentation, I gave the example of @resilabsai achieving 90% accuracy on their home valuation model, making it the most performant open source model and quickly approaching state of the art. Quite literally as I was explaining this during the talk, @markjeffrey pointed out they had just achieved 98% accuracy.
 
In the time between when I prepared the presentation and actually presented, they went from best open source to at or near state of the art - only further highlighting the unique value of Bittensor's open, competitive intelligence creation cycle.
 
 
And the tech that’s being built on Bittensor is getting real attention from serious players. Again, just a few examples of many: Harvard partnered with @Chutes on research about AI inference efficiency. Valeo – an auto company with $20B in annual revenue – is working with @natix on an AI model for self-driving cars. @zeussubnet- the weather forecasting subnet, is the only party in the world allowed to use data WeatherXM’s network of global weather sensors for commercial purposes. And there are in fact many subnets already commercializing their intelligence.
 
 
 
Most of us are already aware of Chutes seven-figure ARR, but a few other examples:
 
@LeadpoetAI– which uses their Bittensor subnet to source sales leads, announced earlier this year that they crossed $1M ARR
 
@Bitcast_network– the content creation platform built on their subnet competition – is already operating profitably
 
@lium_io– a hardware subnet – has bought more than 4,000 TAO worth of their token
 
Remember the economic model I outlined earlier; we’re seeing real evidence that it’s starting to work across many subnets. Intelligence built on Bittensor, capturing value in the real economy, and bringing it back into the network.
 
Action shot of this slide courtesy of @Tom_dot_b
 
 
That’s why when we look at Bittensor we like to look at Total Network Value (TNV);
$TAO market cap is only part of the story in Bittensor. TNV = market cap of TAO + market cap of subnets – tao in the pools [as not to double count] The actual value of this network is already higher than most people realize. And notably, subnets make up an increasing proportion of TNV – recently crossing 35% - as value continues to flow into the pools.
 
 
 
Interestingly, we recently noticed a change in TNV: In particular, despite all the volatility in TAO, the dramatic subnet issuance curves, etc. - the combined subnet market cap had been remarkably consistent around $750 million for most of the last year, until recently.
 
It’s nearly doubled over the last few months – a clear breakout in the trend. If you were looking for Tipping Point, it might look something like this...
 
 
 
I hear a lot that that value is relatively concentrated in the largest subnets. And the market cap distribution does indeed reflect that, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
 
 
 
This is the market cap distribution of the S&P 500. Many healthy economic systems tend towards Pareto distributions. And so what if some subnets are worth more? As we showed earlier, this is an ecosystem that will win or lose *together* And we’re seeing that play out every day.
 
 
 
We track announcements of subnets utilizing each others infrastructure and intelligence. Just as an example, we identified at least eight subnets who announced that they use Chutes for inference. But we have dozens of similar examples of cross-subnet collaboration across many subnets like
 
What’s notable about this:
 
1. Collaboration seems to be happening at an increasing pace as subnets continue to mature and build out contiguous pipelines of AI infrastructure
 
2. Keeping money circulating within an economy creates a money multiplier. Capital circulating within a single economy without leaving creates economic value for each party it passes through, without having to bring in new capital. That’s uniquely possible here because of the diversity of infrastructure built on Bittensor.
 
This network is not 128 discrete growth drivers; it’s increasingly functioning as an interconnected graph, which has substantially more stickiness and value And the pace is about to increase dramatically:
 
 
 
We’re starting to see increasing agents operating on Bittensor: subnets mined by agents, subnets operated by agents...
 
Consider the Bittensor value flywheel:
 
-An intelligence goal is established
-Miners compete to achieve the goal
-That produces intelligence
-Intelligence generates value
 
That’s happening today, as we’ve seen earlier in this discussion.
 
As agents get more capable, that flywheel spins faster and faster. Permissionless entry means any agent can compete. Protocol-native economic incentives mean good work gets rewarded. Bittensor is uniquely advantaged for agentic speed over guarded, centralized alternatives with corporate procurement cycles.
 
That also means exploits will be found faster. But, it also means solutions that harden the network against them will be found faster as well.
 
Accordingly the impact of the network primitives – incentives, accessibility, governance, security, reliability, and all the infrastructure we’re building around the network - have an exponentially larger impact. It is critical that we get these right. The time to nail this, is right now. If we don’t someone else will.
 
 
 
The good news is, for now, Bittensor seems to be in the lead The 30-day moving average of Daily active wallets just crossed a record, approaching 10,000 Up 100% just in the last year.
 
 
 
We’re also seeing subnet ownership increasingly diversify and distribute. The median number of holders of subnet tokens at 2,000 is a 10x increase since the dtao launch a year ago. And at Yuma, we spend a lot of effort and resources to help broaden that access.
 
 
 
Yuma currently partners with 16 custodian and wallet providers to bring Bittensor access to the masses As an institutional-grade validator, the relationships and service we offer give them the confidence to make TAO staking available to millions of end users.
 
During the Summit, we announced that BitGo’s clients will now have access to subnet token staking through our partnership, making subnet investing available to customers of one of the world’s largest custodians.
 
 
 
We also help people gain access to subnets via investment vehicles. The Yuma Composite Fund gives investors access to a market-cap weighted portfolio of subnets through traditional investment structures. The Yuma Large Cap Fund gives investors concentrated exposure to Bittensor's largest subnets.
 
Our institutional asset management team handles everything from initial subnet token purchases, to portfolio rebalancing, custody, and reporting. The appeal for institutions is obvious, but even for the Bittensor native, it’s an amazingly simple way to get access to a broadly diversified portfolio, rebalanced regularly.
 
Between the breakout performance of subnets, the attractive staking rewards, and benefits of diversification, the Yuma funds have outperformed TAO materially year to date [as of when the presentation was created] Nearly 3x outperformance relative to TAO.
 
 
 
And last but definitely not least, our subnet accelerator has helped a wide range of companies access Bittensor. We help them acquire subnet slots, design incentives, provide marketing assistance, review pitch decks, make introductions to other investors, etc. At Yuma we deeply believe in the power of subnets and have helped many of the network's leading intelligence providers start and succeed.
 
 
 
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.  This material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or tokens.  Investing in digital assets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal.  Subnet tokens do not represent equity or ownership interests in any entity.  Performance comparisons and index references are illustrative only and not indicative of future results.  Charts and indices are based on methodologies and assumptions that may change and may not reflect actual market conditions or liquidity.
 

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