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Power of Payments Ep. 24: Talking FedNow and real-time payments with Bottomline’s Jessica Cheney
March 01, 2023
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  • Jessica Cheney, VP of Product – Digital Banking Solutions at Bottomline Technologies, joins host Ismail Umar on this week’s podcast.
  • She discusses the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US, and how the launch of FedNow is going to impact the banking industry.

Welcome back to the Power of Payments podcast. I’m your host Ismail Umar, and today I’m joined by Jessica Cheney, VP of Product for the Digital Banking Solutions group at Bottomline Technologies.

Jessica has been with Bottomline for over a decade. Prior to that, she held similar roles at a number of other fintechs, and was also part of the commercial product management group at US Bank. She has been involved with real-time payments for many years now, and says she has a comprehensive outlook on how payments impact financial services from a commercial, fintech, and retail perspective.

In our conversation today, Jessica discusses the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US, and how the launch of FedNow – the Federal Reserve's instant payment service – is going to impact the banking industry. She also talks about how SMBs can use real-time payments to improve their day-to-day operations, and the overall impact that RTP adoption will likely have on banks, businesses, and consumers in the coming years.

The following excerpts were edited for clarity.

I lead the product management function for the banking segment of Bottomline Technologies. I've been there for about 11 years now. Prior to that, I was in similar roles at other fintech companies – S1 and Clear2Pay, most notably. I’ve also worked directly in the financial services industry in several areas. I was part of the commercial product management group at US Bank, and led the retail group at Skowhegan Savings Bank. So I sort of have a very comprehensive perspective on how payments impact the financial services world from a commercial perspective, a fintech perspective, and a retail perspective. I've also been involved with real-time payments since its conceptual launch with the Federal Reserve, for several years now. That really sparked my interest with the Fed Task Force, and I've been really involved in the industry ever since.

Given your expertise, what would you say is the current state of adoption of real-time payments in the US compared to other parts of the world?

I think that, to answer that question, it really depends on how clinical we’re going to be in using the term ‘real-time payments.’ And that is a concept that's applicable in the US and throughout the world. The term is really an umbrella that covers many payment options, especially in the US: P2P payments from Zelle, Cash App, Venmo, Same Day ACH supported by NACHA, the Fed, and The Clearing House, RTP launched by The Clearing House in November 2017, and now FedNow launching the instant payment network that's coming live this summer. In general, to answer your question, I would describe this as an industry that’s continuing to grow, though a bit more slowly lately. The P2P space continues to drive most volume and growth. Zelle reported over 550 million transactions, representing the movement of over $155 billion in June. That’s a 27% growth from 2021. Venmo is reporting more than $63 billion moved in Q3, a 6% growth over their record year in 2021.

Now, Same Day ACH, and ACH in general in the US, is continuing to grow. It saw 6% growth in Q3, with Same Day seeing the most increase in use. There were 176 million Same Day ACH payments made. And that's a huge, 102% increase since Q3 2021. The RTP network has also seen huge growth, reporting 49 million transactions in Q4, moving about $22 billion, another 9% growth over Q3.

When I really dig into this a little bit deeper, though, I think that there are some things driving this. There's a recent American banking article that noted disbursements and rent payments are among the fastest-growing Zelle use cases. And that kind of indicates that more users are relying on Zelle’s speed to make last-minute billing deadlines. The number of companies including insurance providers, education and government agencies, using Zelle to transfer funds also dramatically increased, 87% in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the year before. So while all this growth seems impressive, I think the industry is actually on the brink of truly having breakout adoption. There’s a saying that goes, ‘A rising tide lifts all boats.’ This tide is growing in the RTP industry, aided by the FedNow launch, as well as more B2C and B2B adoption. The current economic condition is also ripe for assisting growth in real-time payments as personal and corporate liquidity management becomes more and more important.

Can you share your thoughts on the kind of impact FedNow is going to have on the financial industry?

The biggest thing is that the Fed has for a very long time been seen as the preferred payment network provider. And that's probably based on their perceived stability and competitive neutral reach to all financial institutions. The Clearing House, for example, has roughly 280 participating banks. The Fed has a built-in customer base of over 9000 financial institutions that FedNow will now be offered to. That sheer jump in volume of banks reached that will have access to real-time or instant payments will lead to a really game-changing adoption in the future. The launch of the FedNow service also removes the “let's wait and see” excuse that some banks have used when it comes to real-time payments. Many until this point have seen RTP as only the purview of the largest banks in the US. Just as an aside, The Clearing House members that were initial drivers of RTP, and those member banks, are among the largest in the US. What the launch of FedNow does is make RTP mainstream in America. The Fed and NACHA launched ACH and direct deposit in the mid-70s, and that helped make ACH mainstream. Today, 94% of Americans get paid that way. FedNow has the potential to do the same thing with real-time or instant payments.

Once FedNow is launched, do you expect to see rapid adoption of real-time payments in the US, or do you think it will slowly build up over time?

Unfortunately, I think at least the next couple of years, we will continue to see a little bit of a slow adoption curve. And then we will reach a major launching point where we will have critical mass in both receivers and senders of real-time transactions. Too many banks have waded into this pool as receivers only, and not enough have jumped into the deep end to be senders as well. And you really can't have a network that is full of receivers but not senders and be successful.

Another unknown factor in how much interoperability will occur between these two networks will really impact adoption. Once we know that, and though the interoperability between the two networks is established, that's the linchpin of growth going forward. The networks have both been set up for interoperability, and they’re using similar message sets, similar operating guidelines and value propositions. But actual interoperability remains to be improved between the two.

A key point here is that eventually, the demand that we're seeing in the P2P space will also push into the business payments space. That, along with FedNow's reach, will really push adoption rates along. When payments become mainstream, their value is more widely understood, and that obviously drives demand as well.

Do you think there is a sufficient level of awareness among American businesses about what adopting real-time payments would mean for them? And what do you think is most important for FIs and businesses to understand about adopting real-time payments?

Unfortunately, I think the comprehension level of the value of RTP remains low. I’ll share a story with you. I was talking to a CFO of a midsize fintech about RTP about 18 months ago. And his initial question to me was, ‘Why on earth would I want to pay invoice faster? I want to hold on to my cash.’ So I went on to explain that RTP is actually the liquidity and cash management tool that helps him do that better than any other payment type out there. RTP lets you wait till the absolute last minute to pay an invoice, and either take advantage of payment terms offered or to get shipments released and delivered when needed.

I think lots of energy is now going into the education and benefits for businesses to use RTP to make payments, and RFP, request for payments, to get paid. First and foremost, I think that RTP and RFP are key business operating tools for small businesses. They help with liquidity management, financial planning, customer service, and efficiencies in both the accounts receivable and accounts payable processes.

First of all, liquidity management. As I mentioned before, RTP allows small businesses who are managing their cash really tightly to make payments at the absolute last minute. Sure, they can be scheduled in advance, but when cash is tight and you need to pay a vendor just in time, RTP provides that. RFP, or request for payment, is the ability to send an electronic invoice and request a real-time payment in response. This can really streamline the invoice to collection process for any small business and aid in reducing collection time. It is also a very cost-efficient way to send electronic invoices. Many merchant services providers are now offering instant settlement, providing access to funds immediately, which helps small businesses meet their immediate cash flow needs. What these merchant services are doing is, at the end of any particular sales period, where the small business will close out their credit card sales for the day, the merchant service company is providing settlement to these small businesses via RTP. On the flip side of this, RTP can also be used for instant payroll, and it can help many small businesses attract employees in this highly competitive labor market.

The other part of this that I haven't really talked about before is the fact that real-time payments can also have an accompanying real-time acknowledgment, meaning a payment that has been made by RTP can be acknowledged by the receiver. And that can also aid in reducing some of the financial anxiety that many small businesses are facing when they make just-in-time payments.

How do you think the current macroeconomic conditions and market volatility will impact the adoption and effectiveness of real-time payments?

I think that it’s absolutely going to have an impact. We don't have to look too far to see proof of that. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of cashless, contactless, and real-time payments grew like crazy. You just have to look at the volumes from Zelle, Venmo, and Cash App to see that impact. But today's economic conditions are driving consumers and businesses away from wanting to use credit or credit cards as means of payment – the interest rate’s just way too high. Companies and consumers alike do need to wait till the last minute to make key payments for things like rent and utilities, but they also need the financial certainty that these last-minute payments have been acknowledged. And RTP can do that.

Looking into the future, what kind of impact do you think the adoption of real-time payments is going to have on banks, businesses and consumers in the coming years?

I really think that RTP is the next revolution in payments. I think it’ll be a soft change. We've evolved into real-time payments in the P2P space being mainstream. And that will continue to flow into the B2B and B2C aspects of this industry. Financial institutions are already making investments to take advantage of this. It’s just going to be the next expectation, just like the expectation we have that the phones we carry in our pockets are mini-computers and basically can do everything that we want to be done instantaneously. That's the natural evolution and the next wave of payments in the industry.

There's a couple of things that I did want to mention, though. I think that people get hung up on the speed of these payments. But there are other aspects of RTP that also add value. The added value to this also takes advantage of some of the other things that we've grown very accustomed to. And that’s the instant communication that goes along with these payment types. There’s the ability to have these real-time payments instantly acknowledged. There are communication vehicles built into the payment rails that allow the sender and receiver to communicate with each other about questions that they have, either about the amounts that have been received or the amounts that have been requested to be paid. Again, it kind of takes what’s become very mainstream in our personal lives, with the use of instant messaging and texting, and goes along with the natural change in payments that’s occurring. I think that's the key to why RTP is the next revolution in payments.

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Jack McDonald, Co-Founder of PolySign alongside Arthur Britto Timestamps for the Video listed below

Timestamps:
0:50 — Founded PolySign with Arthur Britto.
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1:01 — Ripple acquires Standard Custody.
1:20 — Why Ripple entered stablecoins and custody
1:40 — Discussion regarding Ripple and USDC
2:40 — Acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road.
3:12 — Hidden Road’s client base
4:15 — Ripple pledges $25 million
4:46 — Forward-looking commentary

OP: @ProfRipplEffect

00:06:55
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🚨EXPLAINED: BRICS LAUNCHES A GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY: THE "UNIT" It's called the "Unit."🚨

This is a live prototype for an alternative to the US dollar in international trade.

What Is It?

A digital currency for trade between BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

It's backed by a basket of their local currencies and physical gold. How It Works (Simplified):

1⃣ Step 1: The "Basket" is Created. A "Unit Reserve Basket" holds: 40% in physical gold (40 grams for the first test batch). 60% in five BRICS currencies (12% each: Real, Yuan, Rupee, Ruble, Rand).

2⃣ Step 2: Units Are Issued. On October 31, 2025, 100 Units were created. Each Unit was worth exactly 1 gram of gold.

3⃣ Step 3: Value Fluctuates with the Market. The Unit's value changes daily based on the strength of the currencies in the basket vs. gold.

By December 4, the basket's value had adjusted to 98.23 grams of gold. Therefore, 1 Unit = 0.9823g of gold.

The Goal: Trade Without Dollars. Countries could use Units to settle transactions, reducing reliance on the US dollar and keeping their gold reserves ...

00:05:36
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🚨JUST IN: SEC ENDS 2-YEAR ONDO PROBE

The SEC has closed its investigation into $ONDO, giving Ondo Finance the green light to accelerate its U.S. tokenization expansion.

Best Brief Pep Talk for Homo Sapiens

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Why your privacy matters:

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Do you realize that if you are an American, your overall right to privacy is guaranteed by the Federal Constitutions as expressed by the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 9th and 14th Amendments? 

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👉Millennials & Gen-Z are Poorer Than Ever (Here's Why)

🚨 Discover the shocking truth about the millennial wealth gap and gen z financial struggles. From housing costs to student debt, learn why younger generations face unprecedented economic challenges.

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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den… the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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