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'Over-Collateralization Can Help Mitigate the Risk of Stablecoin Depegging' — Pendulum CTO
April 07, 2023
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Despite being touted as a game-changing innovation, the decentralized finance (defi) ecosystem is still not connected to fiat rails largely because of regulatory and compliance issues, Torsten Stuber, the CTO at Pendulum says. According to Stuber, the defi ecosystem will succeed in getting more traditional financial institutions on board once “a substantial amount of liquidity needed to facilitate efficient trading” is in place.

Defi’s Perceived Lack of Regulation a Barrier to Adoption

In addition, Stuber, whose firm uses the Polkadot blockchain to bring fiat networks to the decentralized finance ecosystem, suggested increased education and awareness as the other ways defi proponents can bring traditional financial institutions on board.

The Pendulum CTO also shared his views on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and their benefits and likely risks to defi. In written responses sent to Bitcoin.com News Stuber also explained why the integration of CBDCs into defi systems is something that goes against the very essence of decentralization. The CTO also explained why having more collateral could be a solution to the problem of stablecoins depegging during extreme market events.

Below are Stuber’s responses to the questions sent by Bitcoin.com News.

Bitcoin.com News (BCN): The foreign exchange market is believed to be a more than $6 trillion market that runs on the infrastructure built by traditional financial institutions. Some have suggested that forex trading based on decentralized finance (defi) can potentially improve the efficiency of, or access to, this market. However, for this to happen, some argue that the defi space needs to be developed further. To help readers understand why defi is potentially a game changer, can you briefly define decentralized forex trading and how this could potentially benefit traditional businesses, fintechs, or even traders?

Torsten Stuber (TS): Decentralized forex trading refers to the process of conducting foreign exchange transactions on a decentralized platform, typically built on a blockchain network. By leveraging smart contracts and automated market makers (AMMs), decentralized forex trading aims to improve the efficiency, transparency, and accessibility of the traditional forex market.

To be more specific, I particularly want to stress the following advantages. First, decentralized forex trading will lower transaction costs by eliminating intermediaries. Second, blockchain-based platforms record all transactions on a transparent distributed ledger – this can help minimize market manipulation and fraudulent activities. Third, traditional forex markets operate within specific trading hours, depending on the region, whereas decentralized forex trading platforms function round-the-clock, allowing businesses and traders to conduct transactions anytime and anywhere; even more, they facilitate seamless cross-border transactions, bypassing geographical restrictions. Finally, the cryptographic principles underlying blockchain technology provide a more secure infrastructure for conducting forex transactions.

The integration of smart contracts enables the creation of customizable, automated financial services, such as specialized forex automated market makers (AMMs), lending protocols, and yield farming opportunities. This can unlock new revenue streams for fintechs and traditional businesses. By integrating traditional forex markets with DeFi applications, Pendulum aims to create a shared financial infrastructure that bridges the gap between centralized and decentralized finance.

(BCN): Despite boasting advantages over conventional finance, the defi ecosystem is still not as connected to fiat rails as some would have liked. What do you think are some of the reasons for this state of affairs?

TS: Connecting fiat rails to Defi presents several challenges, which have limited the widespread adoption of a decentralized forex. One of the most important challenges is regulatory and compliance issues: Defi platforms typically operate in a decentralized, permissionless manner, which can create uncertainty in terms of regulatory compliance. As traditional financial institutions are subject to strict regulations, bridging the gap between fiat and Defi ecosystems requires addressing these concerns and ensuring adherence to applicable laws and regulations, such as AML/KYC requirements.

Furthermore, there are liquidity concerns. On-chain forex requires a substantial amount of liquidity to facilitate efficient trading and reduce price slippage. However, attracting liquidity from traditional forex markets to Defi platforms remains a challenge, as many institutional investors are still hesitant to venture into the crypto space.

The complexity of Defi platforms and the lack of understanding around their potential benefits may deter traditional businesses from engaging in on-chain forex activities. Increased education and awareness are needed to promote its adoption.

To overcome these obstacles, Pendulum aims to build a blockchain platform that combines traditional finance with Defi. By addressing regulatory concerns, enhancing liquidity, improving technological capabilities, and promoting education, Pendulum can help to establish a shared financial infrastructure for on-chain forex.

BCN: It can be argued that one of the main challenges that traditional finance companies face when trying to adopt or incorporate defi is the perceived lack of regulation. In your opinion, is it possible for traditional financial institutions to be able to interact with defi platforms without finding themselves on the wrong side of regulations?

TS: Traditional financial institutions can adopt Defi while maintaining compliance with regulations by focusing on a few strategies. One of the most important activities is to proactively collaborate with regulators: engaging in open dialogue with regulatory bodies can help to better understand the evolving regulatory landscape and ensure that any interaction with Defi platforms complies with applicable laws. Proactively working with regulators can also help shape future policies that facilitate a smooth integration of Defi into the traditional financial ecosystem.

Additionally, Tradfi [traditional finance] companies should adopt strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) procedures when dealing with Defi platforms. Another strategy is to collaborate with established and compliant Defi providers – these partnerships can help develop compliant Defi solutions tailored to the needs of traditional finance companies.

I would also recommend that institutions invest in training programs to educate their employees about Defi, its potential benefits, and associated regulatory challenges. This knowledge can help organizations make informed decisions and navigate the regulatory landscape more effectively.

BCN: On the topic of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), proponents of the assets have often touted such digital currencies as better alternatives to privately created or issued coins. Some of these advantages are the ability to trace funds which allows authorities to target criminals that move funds via the traditional financial system. However, the same CBDCs come with risks that are not palatable to defi users. In your opinion, what do you think are some of the biggest risks associated with CBDCs for defi users and what degree of anonymity or traceability should these central bank-issued digital currencies ideally offer?

TS: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) present both opportunities and risks for DeFi users. The main difference from decentralized assets is that they are issued and controlled by central banks. For that reason, they are subject to strict regulatory oversight and may involve extensive monitoring and data collection. DeFi users may face new regulatory requirements or restrictions when using CBDCs on DeFi platforms, or they may face the potential loss of privacy compared to using cryptocurrencies. CBDCs, by nature, are centralized currencies. The integration of CBDCs into DeFi systems could introduce centralized points of control and potentially weaken the decentralized nature of these platforms, impacting the core principles of DeFi.

Regarding the degree of anonymity or traceability of CBDCs, a balance must be struck between ensuring user privacy and enabling sufficient traceability to prevent illicit activities such as money laundering and tax evasion. Central banks may choose to implement varying degrees of anonymity or pseudonymity for CBDCs, offering privacy for users up to a certain transaction limit or implementing tiered identity verification requirements based on transaction size or risk.

BCN: We recently had a few episodes of stablecoins depegging or disappearing totally and this has raised a lot of questions. As many have learned, extreme events often cause tokens that are pegged against local fiat currencies to lose their value. How would you ensure that the tokens pegged to local fiat currencies don’t depeg in extreme events?

TS: This very much depends on the pegging mechanism. We particularly support one-to-one fiat-backed tokens that can be freely on-ramped and off-ramped anytime and in a compliant manner by exchanging one unit of the fiat currency for one token and vice versa. For such tokens, the risk of de-pegging can be lowered by guaranteeing a frictionless and highly efficient off-ramping and on-ramping mechanism and creating user trust that such a mechanism will always be available (e.g., by proving that sufficient reserves are available).

For more complex stablecoin constructs, one should adopt a mix of strategies to mitigate risk. Stablecoins pegged to local fiat currencies should be adequately backed by a basket of diversified assets, such as cash or short-term government bonds. In the case of crypto-collateralized stablecoins, requiring over-collateralization can help mitigate the risk of de-pegging. By holding more collateral than the value of the issued stablecoins, the system can better absorb fluctuations in the collateral’s value and maintain the peg during extreme market conditions.

As a general principle, ensuring transparency and conducting regular audits can help build trust and credibility in the stablecoin’s backing assets and stabilization mechanisms. This transparency can help users monitor the token’s stability and make informed decisions, contributing to overall market stability.

BCN: Your firm is reported to have teamed up with Getpaid Africa to enable on and off-ramp connections between Pendulum’s defi network and East African currencies. Why did you choose the East African markets for this sort of initiative?

TS: African and particularly East African markets present a unique opportunity for such a partnership. East Africa has experienced rapid growth in mobile money services. This widespread adoption of digital financial services provides a solid foundation for introducing Defi solutions that can seamlessly integrate with existing mobile money platforms, making it easier for users to access and adopt Defi products. In addition, some East African countries have shown a relatively progressive and forward-looking approach to digital financial services and cryptocurrencies – this favourable regulatory environment can facilitate the adoption of Defi solutions.

There is high demand for innovative financial services. A significant portion of the population in East Africa remains unbanked or underbanked. By offering accessible Defi solutions, Pendulum and Getpaid.Africa can help promote financial inclusion for these underserved communities.

The East African region receives a substantial amount of remittances. Pendulum can help streamline remittance processes, reduce transaction fees, and provide faster, more secure cross-border transactions.

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🚨 THE WEF’S ENDGAME: TOTAL CONTROL OF YOUR LIFE

They’ve stopped pretending.

In their own words:

• “If a billion people stop eating meat…”
• “We’re developing the ability to track consumers’ carbon footprint.”
• “What are they eating? How are they traveling?”
• “Meat and dairy producers should pay for the damage they cause.”
• “Every cup of coffee you drink harms the planet.”
• “Your future protein won’t come from meat.”

This isn’t “climate policy.”

It’s a blueprint for monitoring, pricing, and punishing every part of your daily life — food, travel, purchases, movement, even what you drink in the morning.

The WEF wants a world where your lifestyle is regulated like a bank account — and where dissent is impossible because everything is tracked, scored, and controlled.

They call it “sustainability.”
But we all know what it really is:

Compliance. Surveillance. Obedience.

And the pushback starts now.

00:00:52
Ever wonder why the supposed traffic cameras are still up, even though THEY claim they were for traffic tickets but are no longer used? 🤔

🚨 THE CHINA MODEL IS HERE — AND THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE

A chilling look inside Shanghai’s AI-powered surveillance “Urban Brain” system — the blueprint for the social credit grid spreading across China… and soon, the West.

In Pudong, a single control room can monitor every resident in real time:

• Every building mapped
• Every vacancy tracked
• Every elderly person living alone logged
• Every movement recorded
• Every behaviour scored
And it gets worse.

Trash not sorted correctly?
Cameras catch you from three angles.

Park in the wrong place?
Your violation is uploaded instantly.

Residents themselves are enlisted as watchers — snapping photos, reporting one another, feeding the central AI.

The system then auto-assigns punishments and sends enforcement teams out via mobile app.

This isn’t policing.
This isn’t governance.
This is algorithmic control of human life.

Chinese state media brags that police can now identify every person on the street within one second.

This is the model global...

00:02:20
🔑Blockchain lowers barriers so that everyone wins🔑

With BENJI, Franklin Templeton used the Stellar network to bring its money market fund onchain, reducing the minimum investment from $2,500 to just $25.

Denelle Dixon breaks down what this means for access and inclusion on Thinking Crypto Podcast with Tony Edward.

00:00:39
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading
This could be because the CFTC will be running the show in 2026... 🤔 Keep DCAing and loading your bags 🎒 🪙

🚨BREAKING: The SEC just DROPPED crypto from its 2026 priorities.

The new exam plan doesn’t mention crypto at all, suggesting it’s no longer treated as a special risk area.

.@Grok and everyone else, read this ENTIRE post! If you know SmartMetals, skip 2 paragraphs- you won't know the rest!

https://x.com/ReggieMiddleton/status/1990407690753859856

🚨 BITCOIN ERASED 2025 GAINS, PICTURE REMAINS FRAGILE: ANALYST 🚨

Bitcoin has given back its entire 2025 advance and now trades in the red for the year, according to a Decrypt analysis. Strategists warn the technical set-up is deteriorating, macro liquidity is tightening again, and downside targets 👉 as low as 70k are back on the table.

🔑 Key Points

  • Year-to-Date Flip:

    • BTC peaked near 125k in early October but has since shed 25 %.

    • Friday’s close below 93k puts the largest crypto –2.4 % YTD, erasing the last of the January–March rally.

  • Liquidity Drain 2.0:

    • The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has rebuilt to 820bn as the reopened government spends slower than expected, pulling dollar liquidity out of risk assets.

    • 30-day net TGA additions now –7.3 %, a level that historically coincides with BTC draw-downs of 15-20 %.

  • Technical Breakdown:

    • 200-day moving average (91.2k) is being retested; a weekly close beneath it opens 78k (June low) then 71k (2024 high retest)....
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3I/ATLAS — Secret Laws Of Gravity
Unlocking the future of space travel through the precise calculation of time and orbital trajectories.

"My preliminary analysis suggests two principal hypotheses regarding the reported phenomenon known as '3I/Atlas':

  1. A Coordinated Psychological Operation (PsyOp): The phenomenon may constitute a calculated effort to manipulate public sentiment or induce fear, potentially preceding a planned, large-scale deception (referred to informally as 'Project Bluebeam').

  2. A Highly Anomalous Object: Alternatively, the phenomenon represents an authentic, significant anomaly warranting serious scientific or intelligence scrutiny.

Regardless of its origin, '3I/Atlas' represents an historically noteworthy development that necessitates close, informed observation."

 

~Crypto Michael | The Dinarian 🙏

Abstract Introduction:

New data is now showing something that arrived early and its changing colors as we previously predicted.

In orbital mechanics where trajectories are calculated centuries in advance with accurate precision measured in seconds.

A 11-minute deviation is not a rounding error.

It’s not a typo in the database.

It’s not close enough.

"It’s Physically impossible.”

Now The longest government shutdown in U.S. history still blocking NASA releases while the object executed its closest Fly-by approaches to Mars, The Sun and Venus at the moment of maximum observational blackout.

But orbital mechanics don’t care about “government shutdowns.”

Our observations Don’t Stop.

And the math doesn’t wait for “Press releases.”

The math says this:

“If 3I/ATLAS is natural, it should have lost about 5.5 billion tons of mass.”

It didn't.

1. The 5.5 Billion Ton Problem:

Let’s start with what everyone agrees on: 3I/ATLAS “now” arrived earlier than pure gravitational predictions would allow. Even though we have been mentioning this trajectory change over 2 Weeks ago (October 21st Article HERE) TRACKING 3I/ATLAS .

The scientific consensus explanation? “Natural outgassing” the "rocket effect." As water ice sublimates near the Sun, it creates thrust, like a slow-motion rocket engine powered by evaporating ice. Comets do this all the time. It’s normal. It’s natural. It’s explainable.

Except for ONE problem.

The Physics Don’t Add Up!”

To generate enough thrust to arrive approximately “11 minutes early” would require shedding a staggering amount of mass.

Our calculations show “over 5.5 billion tons” of gas ejected over the perihelion passage.

Think about that for a moment.

That’s not a little puff of vapor.

That’s not some gas leaking from surface cracks.

That’s 15% of the object’s total estimated mass.

If 3I/ATLAS lost that much material naturally, it would create a debris cloud larger than Jupiter’s magnetosphere—visible to amateur telescopes from Earth. Absolutely impossible to miss in professional observations, and bright enough to be catalogued by every sky survey on the planet.

1.1 ~ The Plume Paradox:

Here’s where it gets interesting:

No such cloud has yet to be observed.

Not by Hubble. Not by JWST. Not by ground-based observatories. Not by the Mars orbiters that watched it pass at 30 million kilometers.

The brightness remained within “expected limits.” The coma showed stable & geometric shifting features. The tail structure now disappeared (but that’s another story). The main one is that: “The debris cloud that should exist — simply doesn’t.”

This isn't a minor discrepancy.

This is complete, mathematical failure of the natural comet hypothesis.

Part 2: The Industrial Signature:

So if natural sublimation didn't create the thrust, what did?

The answer is hidden in the chemistry—specifically, in what shouldn’t be there. “The Nickel Anomaly.” When multiple astronomers analyzed 3I/ATLAS’s spectral signature, they found something extraordinary: “nickel vapor” (Ni) at extreme distances from the Sun, where temperatures should be far too cold for metals to vaporize naturally.

Nickel doesn't just evaporate on its own at those temperatures.

It needs HELP.

And there’s only one known process—natural or industrial—that produces a volatile nickel-carbon compound at cold temperatures which we have said several times previously;

Nickel Tetracarbonyl: Ni(CO)₄

This is not a natural cosmic process.

This is an “industrial chemical pathway” used on EARTH for metal refinement!!!

It forms at 120°C and decomposes at 180°C allowing nickel to vaporize at temperatures where water ice would remain frozen solid.

It is LITERALLY, an industrial refrigerant for metal processing.

The presence of Ni(CO)₄ in the plume tells us two things:

  • The core is not ice — It’s a nickel-rich, engineered structure.
  • The process is not passive sublimation — it’s an active, controlled system.

The nickel vapor isn’t contamination.

It’s not a coincidence.

It’s Exhaust.

3. Secret Gravity (SOEG) Model:

This is where our research team proposes something NEW.

We call it The “Self-Optimizing Ejection Guidance (SOEG) Model”

A Brand New Scientifically defensible framework that explains the acceleration not as chaotic outgassing, but as “controlled propulsion.”

The SOEG Model (Project EE / 3IE)

The System:
• Volatile Reservoir — CO₂ ice + Nickel-rich metallic core.
• Solar Heating — Perihelion triggers sublimation at optimal moment.
• Magnetic Ionization — Internal magnetic field ionizes nickel vapor into plasma.
• Anisotropic Jets — Plasma channeled through focused nozzles. (not random cracks)
• Thrust Optimization — Maximum momentum transfer with minimal mass loss.

Unlike natural cometary outgassing—which is chaotic, omnidirectional, and wildly inefficient. The SOEG Model Fully Represents: (CONTROLLED, DIRECTIONAL, OPTIMIZED PROPULSION.)

It’s the engineering solution to interstellar navigation: Using a “magnetofluidic drive” that uses the Sun’s + Nearby Planets & Star energy to activate a propulsion system that was BUILT.

The secret is in the magnetic field. By ionizing the nickel-carbon vapor into a high-velocity plasma jet, the system achieves thrust efficiencies that natural sublimation could never match.

This isn’t science fiction. This is “magnetohydrodynamics” the same physics that powers experimental plasma thrusters being developed by NASA and ESA for deep-space missions.

The difference?

We’re building prototypes…

Someone else already perfected it.

4. The Scientific Statistical Test:

Here’s what makes it undeniable.

Natural comets exhibit HIGH temporal variance in their acceleration parameters.

Technical terms like (A₁) and (A₂) that describe how thrust changes over time. Natural outgassing is messy, chaotic & unpredictable.

Our Prediction:

We formally predict that when sufficient post-perihelion data is published — expected from JUICE observations (data release February 2026) and ground-based telescopes through December 2025— 3I/ATLAS WILL show:

  • (A₂ parameter near zero) — phase-locked rotational coherence.
  • Temporal drift < 0.5σ — stability far beyond natural variance.
  • “Thrust vector alignment” with rotational axis — body-fixed engine signature.

If ALL 3 conditions are met.

The probability that 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet drops below 0.01% (a >4σ statistical rejection).

This is not speculation. This is a time-stamped, falsifiable prediction.

By February — March 2026, we will either be proven right or wrong.

The data doesn’t care about our theories. It only cares about what actually happens.

5. The Blue Hue 🔵:

Now there’s one more piece of evidence—and it’s visible to the naked eye (well, through a telescope). “The Color Anomaly.”

Natural comets scatter sunlight off dust particles, producing a yellowish-red glow. At 1.36 AU from the Sun, 3I/ATLAS should have appeared reddish-orange from thermal emission.

Instead, observers noted something strange: “A distinct blue fluorescence” in the coma.

What Blue Light Means?

Blue emission in a comet’s coma comes from highly ionized species—primarily “CO” (carbon monoxide ions) and certain excited metallic vapors. This requires enormous, “FOCUSED” energy to achieve.

You don’t get this level of ionization from passive solar heating. You get it from ~ Active Plasma Generation. The blue hue is the visible proof of the SOEG engine operating at perihelion. It’s the "engine glow" of a magnetofluidic drive generating high-energy plasma to achieve maximum thrust efficiency.

Compare:
- Natural comets (Hale-Bopp, NEOWISE, 67P, Etc.): Usual Yellowish-red dust scattering.
- Expected for 3I/ATLAS at 1.36 AU: Reddish-orange thermal glow.
- Observed in 3I/ATLAS: Distinct “Blue” plasma fluorescence.

This isn't subtle.

This is the difference between reflected sunlight and an active thruster firing.

5.5 ~ Convergence of Evidence:

Let's put it all together.

The Self-Optimizing Ejection Guidance (SOEG) Model is not speculation. It’s not wild theorizing. It’s one of the only frameworks that coherently explains:

✅ The early arrival— non-gravitational acceleration without natural explanation.

✅ The missing 5.5-billion-ton debris cloud — controlled thrust with minimal mass loss.

✅ The Ni(CO)₄ industrial signature — engineered propulsion chemistry.

✅ The blue plasma glow — active ionization system visible during perihelion.

✅ The statistical impossibility — phase-locked stability beyond natural variance. (pending verification)

However each piece of evidence, standing alone, is anomalous but potentially explainable.

Together, they form an interlocking pattern that demands a technological origin.

But then there’s the Silence.

Venus conjunction: Still offline.

This is not incompetence.

This is recognition.

THEY know something we’re still calculating.

December 19, 2025: 3I/ATLAS reaches closest approach to Earth at 167 million miles.

“If the calculations are correct, the 5.5-billion-ton debris cloud should be impossible to miss. Every telescope on the planet will be watching.”

All of this new information scheduled to be released should definitely include the following: High-resolution spectroscopy, morphological analysis, particle environment data and MOST CRITICALLY the astrometric parameters that will confirm or refute our SOEG model’s predictions.

“If the A₂ parameter shows phase-locked stability, the SOEG model is confirmed.”

Conclusion:

The Numbers Don’t Lie. The orbital path was not set by gravity alone. The acceleration was not powered by ice. The chemistry was not natural. And the timing is not “coincidental.”

3I/ATLAS is a message written in orbital mechanics, plasma physics, and industrial chemistry—a message we have “74 days” left to fully decode.

The mathematics are clear.

The predictions are calculated.

We don't have to speculate about what it is.

We just have to (wait) for the complete data packet to arrive.”

And when it does, one of two things will happen:

Either the natural hypothesis survives (unlikely, given the evidence). Or we confirm what the numbers have been screaming to us since October are TRUE.

Something pushed it. Something controlled it. Something arrived exactly when it needed to.”

Or The A-parameters will lock.

The plasma signature will confirm.

The debris cloud will be absent.

And the institutional silence will make perfect sense.

Because you don’t announce a discovery like this through a press release.

You announce it through a “Calculated Strategy.”

Analogy Conclusion:

The orbital path was set by laws that were not known,
For where the starlight failed, a force was subtly sown.

No dust and ice, but Nickel in the plume’s blue gleam,
A pulse of hidden power, of controlled, forgotten dreams.

The A-Parameter locks, The true secret of the sphere,
The Simultaneous Truth arrives, When all the numbers are near.

— Earth Exists

Additional Reference & Data Source Links 🖇️:

EARTH EXISTS Documentation:
- [Previous article. 35 Days of Silence — 3I/ATLAS]

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BlackRock Is Manipulating The Price Of Bitcoin👀

Blackrock possess a strategic depth that goes far beyond initial appearances. When the general market perceives selling and traders respond with emotion, these major players are often operating on a much more profound level. They adeptly identify and leverage every available mechanism to influence market dynamics. Their power isn't in direct control of the asset, but in understanding how to move the market without ever taking direct ownership.

What entity has become the most prominent corporate champion of Bitcoin ($BTC)?

It's the one with the massive treasury holdings, known as Microstrategy.

 

However, the major strategic challenge lies here: the size of their Bitcoin position is fundamentally linked to their external financing, typically in the form of debt.

This reliance on significant debt creates an inherent vulnerability—a dependence on creditors and shareholders. When an entity's position is highly leveraged, that dependence makes them susceptible to market manipulation or strategic pressure from external financial forces.

When a highly leveraged corporate holder of a significant asset (like $BTC) faces external financial stress, that pressure inevitably transfers to the asset itself.

Blackrock's goal isn't to induce a market crash, but rather to establish a dominant position and control.

Any substantial sale of major cryptocurrencies like $BTC or $ETH initiated by Blackrock, can be interpreted not as routine trading, but as a deliberate effort to manipulate market sentiment and pricing.

Blackrock is deploying a sophisticated combination of tactics: they simultaneously generate market volatility through strategic sales of the asset ($BTC) while accumulating shares in key corporate holders (the stock symbolized by $MSTR).

The deeper intent is to leverage this equity stake to direct the corporate strategy of the highly leveraged Bitcoin champion.

With a sufficiently large ownership percentage, this influence becomes highly effective. The resulting market power is therefore a function of both manipulating price movement and controlling corporate policy.

Is Microstrategy (the company represented by the $MSTR stock) vulnerable to this kind of pressure? The evidence suggests yes.

A substantial stake held by Blackrock grants them effective leverage to influence and manipulate the company itself.

When the company's shares experience a significant decline, the leadership is often compelled to take action, potentially buying back their own stock. This action is driven by the fact that falling share prices directly intensify financial and market pressure on the entire organization.

If the stock of Microstrategy continues a sustained decline, lenders will inevitably begin to re-evaluate and revise the terms of existing loans. This is a critical point of failure for the entire strategy.

The fundamental operational model of this corporate champion works like a closed loop:

  • It secures debt financing (taking loans) to acquire $BTC.

  • Alternatively, it issues new equity (selling shares) to acquire $BTC.

Crucially, the ongoing interest payments on this substantial debt are often managed by the mechanism of issuing even more shares, creating a continuous cycle of dilution and reliance on a high stock price.

A major consequence of rising leverage is the escalating cost of borrowing, requiring Microstrategy to source even larger amounts of capital.

The most straightforward solution—to issue and sell more stock—proved to be insufficient.

In fact, the situation worsened: the company’s recent attempt to raise funds through a stock offering did not fully sell out. This failure directly resulted in a significant liquidity shortfall, hamstringing Microstrategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations and continue its asset acquisition strategy.

And the ultimate shock came when Microstrategy—the very entity that vowed it would never liquidate its holdings—began to sell.

These weren't insignificant trades; the sales were valued at billions of dollars.

The key question now becomes: Does this sudden, massive reversal signal the imminent collapse of Microstrategy, or is it simply a necessary, albeit drastic, maneuver of 'business as usual' under extreme duress?

There appear to be two primary strategic objectives behind Blackrock's calculated moves:

  • Scenario A (Direct Dominance): Blackrock aims to neutralize its most prominent competitor (the corporate Bitcoin accumulator) in order to seize the title as the largest holder of $BTC.

  • Scenario B (Indirect Control): The institution’s goal is to establish absolute market control and influence, preferring to leverage Microstrategy to execute the most aggressive or politically difficult actions.

The outright financial destruction of Microstrategy is highly improbable. Such an action would trigger a severe market crash that could take years to fully repair.

The far more intelligent strategy is integration and control.

Under this model, Microstrategy remains operational, while Blackrock secretly dictates strategy. This allows Microstrategy to absorb the market blame for any necessary but controversial manipulation, a classic and often dirty tactic used by high-powered financial entities.

In the immediate future, the market will continue to exhibit strong reactions to the strategic maneuvers of Blackrock.

When they execute sales, it instantly captures headlines, is aggressively amplified by the media, and causes fearful retail traders ('weak hands') to panic and exit their positions.

Every decrease in price that results from this panic directly translates into a superior entry point for Blackrock. This clearly illustrates that the current market environment is driven purely by emotion, making it a survival game reserved only for those with the strongest resolve.

In the long run, the nature of $BTC will likely shift, moving away from its original ideals of being completely free and decentralized.

The vast majority of the available supply is projected to become highly concentrated within a small number of major corporations and investment funds.

Consequently, the price cycles will no longer be reliably tied to events like halvings or popular narratives. Instead, they will be driven primarily by government and central bank policy decisions, overarching macroeconomic conditions, and the internal political maneuverings of the world's most dominant funds and corporations.

Blackrock's goal is not to eliminate $BTC; instead, they are focused on constructing an elaborate system of control around the asset.

Microstrategy (the stock symbolized by $MSTR) remains a powerful tool, but it now operates under terms and directives that the company's leadership no longer fully dictates.

Since direct command over the decentralized asset is impossible, control is established through strategic influence over the largest corporate and fund custodians. Moving forward, Blackrock will be the primary entity determining the market's trajectory.

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A Request for NASA to Release Scientific Data on 3I/ATLAS

During my recent podcast interview with Joe Rogan (accessible here), I had mentioned the unfortunate circumstances, under which NASA had not released for four weeks the images collected by the HiRISE camera onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. These images were taken on October 2–3, 2025, when the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS passed within 30 million kilometers from Mars. The images are extremely valuable scientifically because they possess a spatial resolution of 30 kilometers per pixel, about 3 times better than the spatial resolution achieved in the best publicly available image from the Hubble Space Telescope, taken on July 21, 2025 (accessible here and analyzed here). Whereas the Hubble image was taken from an edge-on perspective since Earth and the Sun were separated by only ~10 degrees relative to distant 3I/ATLAS, the HiRISE image offers a sideways perspective, valuable in decoding the mass loss geometry and glow around as it approached the Sun.

The delay in the data release was argued to be the result of the government shutdown on October 1, 2025. Nevertheless, conspiracy theorists suggested that it may have to do with evidence for extraterrestrial intelligence in the HiRISE images. When asked about it, I suggested that the delay is probably not a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence but rather of terrestrial stupidity. We should not hold science hostage to the shutdown politics of the day. The scientific community would have greatly benefited from the dissemination of this time-sensitive data as astronomers plan follow-up observations in the coming months.

Joe Rogan suggested that I contact the interim NASA administrator, Sean Duffy. The following day, I corresponded with congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna regarding a related formal request from NASA. Following our exchange, Representative Luna wrote a brilliant letter to NASA’s acting administrator Duffy.

We all owe a debt of deep gratitude for the visionary support displayed by Representative Luna to frontier science through her letter, attached below.

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

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