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'Over-Collateralization Can Help Mitigate the Risk of Stablecoin Depegging' — Pendulum CTO
April 07, 2023
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Despite being touted as a game-changing innovation, the decentralized finance (defi) ecosystem is still not connected to fiat rails largely because of regulatory and compliance issues, Torsten Stuber, the CTO at Pendulum says. According to Stuber, the defi ecosystem will succeed in getting more traditional financial institutions on board once “a substantial amount of liquidity needed to facilitate efficient trading” is in place.

Defi’s Perceived Lack of Regulation a Barrier to Adoption

In addition, Stuber, whose firm uses the Polkadot blockchain to bring fiat networks to the decentralized finance ecosystem, suggested increased education and awareness as the other ways defi proponents can bring traditional financial institutions on board.

The Pendulum CTO also shared his views on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and their benefits and likely risks to defi. In written responses sent to Bitcoin.com News Stuber also explained why the integration of CBDCs into defi systems is something that goes against the very essence of decentralization. The CTO also explained why having more collateral could be a solution to the problem of stablecoins depegging during extreme market events.

Below are Stuber’s responses to the questions sent by Bitcoin.com News.

Bitcoin.com News (BCN): The foreign exchange market is believed to be a more than $6 trillion market that runs on the infrastructure built by traditional financial institutions. Some have suggested that forex trading based on decentralized finance (defi) can potentially improve the efficiency of, or access to, this market. However, for this to happen, some argue that the defi space needs to be developed further. To help readers understand why defi is potentially a game changer, can you briefly define decentralized forex trading and how this could potentially benefit traditional businesses, fintechs, or even traders?

Torsten Stuber (TS): Decentralized forex trading refers to the process of conducting foreign exchange transactions on a decentralized platform, typically built on a blockchain network. By leveraging smart contracts and automated market makers (AMMs), decentralized forex trading aims to improve the efficiency, transparency, and accessibility of the traditional forex market.

To be more specific, I particularly want to stress the following advantages. First, decentralized forex trading will lower transaction costs by eliminating intermediaries. Second, blockchain-based platforms record all transactions on a transparent distributed ledger – this can help minimize market manipulation and fraudulent activities. Third, traditional forex markets operate within specific trading hours, depending on the region, whereas decentralized forex trading platforms function round-the-clock, allowing businesses and traders to conduct transactions anytime and anywhere; even more, they facilitate seamless cross-border transactions, bypassing geographical restrictions. Finally, the cryptographic principles underlying blockchain technology provide a more secure infrastructure for conducting forex transactions.

The integration of smart contracts enables the creation of customizable, automated financial services, such as specialized forex automated market makers (AMMs), lending protocols, and yield farming opportunities. This can unlock new revenue streams for fintechs and traditional businesses. By integrating traditional forex markets with DeFi applications, Pendulum aims to create a shared financial infrastructure that bridges the gap between centralized and decentralized finance.

(BCN): Despite boasting advantages over conventional finance, the defi ecosystem is still not as connected to fiat rails as some would have liked. What do you think are some of the reasons for this state of affairs?

TS: Connecting fiat rails to Defi presents several challenges, which have limited the widespread adoption of a decentralized forex. One of the most important challenges is regulatory and compliance issues: Defi platforms typically operate in a decentralized, permissionless manner, which can create uncertainty in terms of regulatory compliance. As traditional financial institutions are subject to strict regulations, bridging the gap between fiat and Defi ecosystems requires addressing these concerns and ensuring adherence to applicable laws and regulations, such as AML/KYC requirements.

Furthermore, there are liquidity concerns. On-chain forex requires a substantial amount of liquidity to facilitate efficient trading and reduce price slippage. However, attracting liquidity from traditional forex markets to Defi platforms remains a challenge, as many institutional investors are still hesitant to venture into the crypto space.

The complexity of Defi platforms and the lack of understanding around their potential benefits may deter traditional businesses from engaging in on-chain forex activities. Increased education and awareness are needed to promote its adoption.

To overcome these obstacles, Pendulum aims to build a blockchain platform that combines traditional finance with Defi. By addressing regulatory concerns, enhancing liquidity, improving technological capabilities, and promoting education, Pendulum can help to establish a shared financial infrastructure for on-chain forex.

BCN: It can be argued that one of the main challenges that traditional finance companies face when trying to adopt or incorporate defi is the perceived lack of regulation. In your opinion, is it possible for traditional financial institutions to be able to interact with defi platforms without finding themselves on the wrong side of regulations?

TS: Traditional financial institutions can adopt Defi while maintaining compliance with regulations by focusing on a few strategies. One of the most important activities is to proactively collaborate with regulators: engaging in open dialogue with regulatory bodies can help to better understand the evolving regulatory landscape and ensure that any interaction with Defi platforms complies with applicable laws. Proactively working with regulators can also help shape future policies that facilitate a smooth integration of Defi into the traditional financial ecosystem.

Additionally, Tradfi [traditional finance] companies should adopt strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) procedures when dealing with Defi platforms. Another strategy is to collaborate with established and compliant Defi providers – these partnerships can help develop compliant Defi solutions tailored to the needs of traditional finance companies.

I would also recommend that institutions invest in training programs to educate their employees about Defi, its potential benefits, and associated regulatory challenges. This knowledge can help organizations make informed decisions and navigate the regulatory landscape more effectively.

BCN: On the topic of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), proponents of the assets have often touted such digital currencies as better alternatives to privately created or issued coins. Some of these advantages are the ability to trace funds which allows authorities to target criminals that move funds via the traditional financial system. However, the same CBDCs come with risks that are not palatable to defi users. In your opinion, what do you think are some of the biggest risks associated with CBDCs for defi users and what degree of anonymity or traceability should these central bank-issued digital currencies ideally offer?

TS: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) present both opportunities and risks for DeFi users. The main difference from decentralized assets is that they are issued and controlled by central banks. For that reason, they are subject to strict regulatory oversight and may involve extensive monitoring and data collection. DeFi users may face new regulatory requirements or restrictions when using CBDCs on DeFi platforms, or they may face the potential loss of privacy compared to using cryptocurrencies. CBDCs, by nature, are centralized currencies. The integration of CBDCs into DeFi systems could introduce centralized points of control and potentially weaken the decentralized nature of these platforms, impacting the core principles of DeFi.

Regarding the degree of anonymity or traceability of CBDCs, a balance must be struck between ensuring user privacy and enabling sufficient traceability to prevent illicit activities such as money laundering and tax evasion. Central banks may choose to implement varying degrees of anonymity or pseudonymity for CBDCs, offering privacy for users up to a certain transaction limit or implementing tiered identity verification requirements based on transaction size or risk.

BCN: We recently had a few episodes of stablecoins depegging or disappearing totally and this has raised a lot of questions. As many have learned, extreme events often cause tokens that are pegged against local fiat currencies to lose their value. How would you ensure that the tokens pegged to local fiat currencies don’t depeg in extreme events?

TS: This very much depends on the pegging mechanism. We particularly support one-to-one fiat-backed tokens that can be freely on-ramped and off-ramped anytime and in a compliant manner by exchanging one unit of the fiat currency for one token and vice versa. For such tokens, the risk of de-pegging can be lowered by guaranteeing a frictionless and highly efficient off-ramping and on-ramping mechanism and creating user trust that such a mechanism will always be available (e.g., by proving that sufficient reserves are available).

For more complex stablecoin constructs, one should adopt a mix of strategies to mitigate risk. Stablecoins pegged to local fiat currencies should be adequately backed by a basket of diversified assets, such as cash or short-term government bonds. In the case of crypto-collateralized stablecoins, requiring over-collateralization can help mitigate the risk of de-pegging. By holding more collateral than the value of the issued stablecoins, the system can better absorb fluctuations in the collateral’s value and maintain the peg during extreme market conditions.

As a general principle, ensuring transparency and conducting regular audits can help build trust and credibility in the stablecoin’s backing assets and stabilization mechanisms. This transparency can help users monitor the token’s stability and make informed decisions, contributing to overall market stability.

BCN: Your firm is reported to have teamed up with Getpaid Africa to enable on and off-ramp connections between Pendulum’s defi network and East African currencies. Why did you choose the East African markets for this sort of initiative?

TS: African and particularly East African markets present a unique opportunity for such a partnership. East Africa has experienced rapid growth in mobile money services. This widespread adoption of digital financial services provides a solid foundation for introducing Defi solutions that can seamlessly integrate with existing mobile money platforms, making it easier for users to access and adopt Defi products. In addition, some East African countries have shown a relatively progressive and forward-looking approach to digital financial services and cryptocurrencies – this favourable regulatory environment can facilitate the adoption of Defi solutions.

There is high demand for innovative financial services. A significant portion of the population in East Africa remains unbanked or underbanked. By offering accessible Defi solutions, Pendulum and Getpaid.Africa can help promote financial inclusion for these underserved communities.

The East African region receives a substantial amount of remittances. Pendulum can help streamline remittance processes, reduce transaction fees, and provide faster, more secure cross-border transactions.

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🚨Interview with Jack McDonald CEO of Standard Custody & Trust🚨

Jack McDonald, Co-Founder of PolySign alongside Arthur Britto Timestamps for the Video listed below

Timestamps:
0:50 — Founded PolySign with Arthur Britto.
0:57 — Founding of Standard Custody.
1:01 — Ripple acquires Standard Custody.
1:20 — Why Ripple entered stablecoins and custody
1:40 — Discussion regarding Ripple and USDC
2:40 — Acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road.
3:12 — Hidden Road’s client base
4:15 — Ripple pledges $25 million
4:46 — Forward-looking commentary

OP: @ProfRipplEffect

00:06:55
👉You Will Own Nothing, And Be Happy...

"Ever notice how you don't actually own anything anymore? Your music 🎶, your movies 🎬, your cloud storage ☁—all of it is just a subscription 💳."

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00:01:06
🚨EXPLAINED: BRICS LAUNCHES A GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY: THE "UNIT" It's called the "Unit."🚨

This is a live prototype for an alternative to the US dollar in international trade.

What Is It?

A digital currency for trade between BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

It's backed by a basket of their local currencies and physical gold. How It Works (Simplified):

1⃣ Step 1: The "Basket" is Created. A "Unit Reserve Basket" holds: 40% in physical gold (40 grams for the first test batch). 60% in five BRICS currencies (12% each: Real, Yuan, Rupee, Ruble, Rand).

2⃣ Step 2: Units Are Issued. On October 31, 2025, 100 Units were created. Each Unit was worth exactly 1 gram of gold.

3⃣ Step 3: Value Fluctuates with the Market. The Unit's value changes daily based on the strength of the currencies in the basket vs. gold.

By December 4, the basket's value had adjusted to 98.23 grams of gold. Therefore, 1 Unit = 0.9823g of gold.

The Goal: Trade Without Dollars. Countries could use Units to settle transactions, reducing reliance on the US dollar and keeping their gold reserves ...

00:05:36
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🚨JUST IN: SEC ENDS 2-YEAR ONDO PROBE

The SEC has closed its investigation into $ONDO, giving Ondo Finance the green light to accelerate its U.S. tokenization expansion.

Best Brief Pep Talk for Homo Sapiens

".....the Kingdom of God is within you...." 

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https://www.facebook.com/reel/1180503997433929

Why your privacy matters:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1JTYg4iJzv/

Do you realize that if you are an American, your overall right to privacy is guaranteed by the Federal Constitutions as expressed by the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 9th and 14th Amendments? 

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They are trying to invade your privacy by bombarding you with Electromagnetic Radiation, non-consensual scanning, non-consensual nanotech implants and non-consensual tracking. 

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No matter what the Luciferians believe, and no matter what they do, the Kingdom of the True God is ...

👉Millennials & Gen-Z are Poorer Than Ever (Here's Why)

🚨 Discover the shocking truth about the millennial wealth gap and gen z financial struggles. From housing costs to student debt, learn why younger generations face unprecedented economic challenges.

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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den… the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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2) Simply scan the QR code below 📲 or Click Here

🔗 Crypto Donations Graciously👇
XRP: r9pid4yrQgs6XSFWhMZ8NkxW3gkydWNyQX
XLM: GDMJF2OCHN3NNNX4T4F6POPBTXK23GTNSNQWUMIVKESTHMQM7XDYAIZT
XDC: xdcc2C02203C4f91375889d7AfADB09E207Edf809A6

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