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Analysis: is a PayPal stablecoin worth the risk?
August 09, 2023
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PayPal generated considerable excitement and curiosity when it unveiled its stablecoin PYUSD, which is backed 1:1 by cash and short term government securities. It will be operated by PayPal’s existing crypto partner Paxos, a New York regulated trust company.

Given the current regulatory cloud around crypto, some have questioned why PayPal chose to launch now. It was the first to acquire a crypto custodian (Curv) in 2021 and one of the first incumbent institutions to provide crypto services

By making its move now, it will likely accelerate U.S. stablecoin legislation.

The money to be earned form stablecoins

Ultimately the motivation boils down to money. And there are at leat three potential revenue sources: interest on reserves, FX and merchant services.

People commented that PayPal is bigger than Tether, the largest stablecoin. Actually, it is. And it isn’t. 

Tether holds more than twice as much in customer funds as PayPal. The market capitalization of the Tether stablecoin is $82 billion, whereas PayPal holds $39 billion of customer funds.

Yes, PayPal may have exponentially more staff and customers – 433 million active users compared to roughly 42 million Tether wallets if you count the 27 million on the Tron blockchain.  

In the first quarter of 2023 Tether reported a profit of $1.48 billion, almost twice PayPal’s. A proportion is Tether’s returns on relatively risky assets (for a stablecoin) such as Bitcoin, Gold and loans. A more conservative company would have earned closer to half that figure.

To put that in context, PayPal’s first quarter revenues were $7 billion and its net income was $795 million. Based on PayPal’s accounting notes and the level of customer funds, we estimate it earned around $400 million in interest on customer balances in the first quarter.

So if PayPal could build its stablecoin to half the size of Tether’s, at current interest rates, that could add another $400 million in interest before other stablecoin related revenues.

But that’s quite a big ask (in the short term), given that PayPal users currently have crypto balances of less than $1 billion.

Revenues beyond interest

During a CNBC interview (below), PayPal’s SVP and crypto leader Jose Fernandez da Ponte said that crypto was the initial target use case but also identified games and remittances as potential real world applications.

On gaming, Fernandez noted that stablecoins could shorten settlement times for merchants so developers won’t have to wait a couple of weeks for funds to clear. PayPal is eyeing the mainstream $100 billion games market, not just web3 games.

Turning to cross border payments, a recent analysis by FXC Intelligence shows that the proportion of PayPal cross border transactions have been falling for some time, and this is the most profitable segment because PayPal charges hefty margins on FX. I personally reduced usage of PayPal as I found the FX charges too steep.

Remittances are definitely a use case for stablecoins. But the true benefits can only be reaped if FX margins are narrower than PayPal charges. Otherwise there’s no comparative advantage. We’re assuming remittances will only kick in once PayPal deploys its stablecoin to blockchains with more affordable transaction costs compared to Ethereum.

Why Ethereum?

PYUSD hasn’t yet launched in earnest, but one of the test transactions in the past couple of days involved a transfer of $2.50, which cost more than $3 in Ethereum gas fees. And that’s on a good day for fees. We can think of a couple of reasons why Ethereum would be the first launch target.

Firstly, Fernandez said that the crypto ecosystem is the initial target market, and for high value transactions, a $3 or $10 gas cost is not that big a deal.

The second reason is speculation – it could be that PYUSD is only authorized for issuance on Ethereum.

The stablecoin partner is Paxos, the New York (NYDFS) regulated trust company. Paxos deserves credit for its role in continually raising the bar on stablecoin reserve quality that others have followed.

Paxos also operates the Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin and earlier this year, when we asked it about the BUSD pegged stablecoins that Binance issued on other chains, this is what Paxos said: 

“The NYDFS must approve our BUSD operations, including the blockchains on which BUSD tokens may be listed,” Paxos told us via email. “Today, BUSD is approved for issuance only on Ethereum. Paxos is not involved in the management or support of wrapped versions of BUSD.” 

We asked Paxos whether PYUSD is authorized on other blockchains, but didn’t receive a response in time for publication.

By only permitting issuance on Ethereum, NYDFS is potentially limiting the audience to crypto users and throttling mainstream usage at this stage. But that strategy is a risky one. Because one of the biggest risks is wrapped stablecoins, where someone else locks an amount of PYUSD on Ethereum and matches the issuance on another chain. 

Stablecoin KYC 

The problem with wrapped coins is the core stablecoin issuer has far less control and influence, especially over transfer restrictions and KYC. 

Theoretically, if one had a policy of not supporting wrapped stablecoins, you could warn anyone wrapping them that the coins will be frozen pending redemption (burning and refunding fiat currency). We also asked Paxos about the policy on wrapping.

The crypto community seemed to be up in arms about PayPal’s ability to freeze accounts, something that other stablecoins such as Tether and USDC also do.

KYC is one of the major unanswered questions. Will an established institution like PayPal really let its stablecoin transfer out of its walled garden with no safeguards?

Again, PayPal’s Fernandez told CNBC that he expected the stablecoin to be available at “exchanges, wallets, Dapps”.

We wondered about that from a KYC perspective. Because most wallets are traceable back to an onramp, so they’re not really pseudonymous. But some wallets are harder to trace. PayPal was an early investor in blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, so it could monitor transactions that use its stablecoin.

If remittances are a use case, it will eventually run into banking regulations – PayPal’s European operations are run as a bank in Luxembourg. While European stablecoins might not require KYC for small transactions with self hosted wallets, anything involving a bank would likely need to comply with banking regulations.

When asked about the advantages PayPal brings to the stablecoin party, Fernandez said there were three things. It has a massive two sided network, provides a linkage to the fiat currency world, and has a regulatory and compliance track record of almost 25 years.

Circling back to the headline. We suspect there isn’t a huge risk to PayPal – at this stage – because it’s likely to take it slow, which might not be it’s own choice. “It’s going to be a process in that we are on the way towards mainstream adoption, but I don’t think you’re going to be paying at your neighborhood store with a stablecoin any time soon,” said Fernandez da Ponte.

But the financial upside is pretty significant.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den… the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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Epstein-Linked Emails Expose Funding Ties to Bitcoin Core Development — Here Is What the Documents Reveal
  • Newly released emails show Jeffrey Epstein helped fund MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative, which supported Bitcoin Core development.
  • The documents also confirm that Leon Black donated to MIT’s Media Lab through Epstein-directed channels.
  • The revelations reshape part of Bitcoin’s early institutional funding history and highlight long-hidden influence from controversial donors.

Newly unsealed emails from the House Oversight Committee have shed fresh light on Jeffrey Epstein’s hidden financial influence inside MIT’s Media Lab — and more importantly, how some of that money flowed into Bitcoin Core development. The correspondence reveals that Joichi Ito, then-director of the MIT Media Lab, relied on Epstein-connected “gift funds” to rapidly launch the Digital Currency Initiative (DCI) in 2015, the research hub that became one of the primary sources of funding for Bitcoin’s core developers.

Emails Show Epstein-Connected Money Helped Launch MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative

In the newly surfaced emails, Ito directly thanked Epstein for the financial help that allowed MIT to “move quickly and win this round,” referring to the formation of DCI — a program explicitly designed to provide long-term support for Bitcoin Core contributors after the collapse of the Bitcoin Foundation. Ito’s forwarded message to Epstein described how the foundation’s implosion left core developers without stable funding, creating an opening for MIT to bring them under its umbrella.

He explained that three major developers — including Wladimir van der Laan and Cory Fields — agreed to join MIT, calling it “a big win for us.” The email also highlighted early support from prominent academics, including cryptographer Ron Rivest and IMF economist Simon Johnson. Epstein simply replied: “gavin is clever.”

Funding Numbers Reveal a Much Larger Financial Trail

MIT publicly claimed that Epstein donated $850,000 to the institution, with $525,000 flowing to the Media Lab. But journalist Ronan Farrow later reported the true figure was closer to $7.5 million — including a $5 million anonymous donation connected to Epstein associate Leon Black. The new emails appear to confirm that Black not only donated, but did so through Epstein’s direction.

One email from Ito to Epstein reads: “We were able to keep the Leon Black money, but the $25K from your foundation is getting bounced by MIT back to ASU.”

 

Epstein responded: “No problem — trying to get more black for you.”

The documents reveal Epstein’s influence reached deeper into Bitcoin circles than previously acknowledged, even including early conversations with Brock Pierce — another figure with documented ties to both Epstein and controversy surrounding early crypto foundations.

MIT’s Internal Concerns and the Fallout

The emails also expose MIT’s internal unease around anonymous or reputationally risky donations. After the scandal broke, Ito resigned in 2019. MIT later tightened donation policies, warning that “everything becomes public” eventually — a statement that now seems prophetic given this week’s disclosures.

Developers like Wladimir van der Laan say they were unaware of the extent of Epstein’s involvement and noted that DCI’s funding transparency “was not great back in the day.” The Media Lab and DCI declined to comment.

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