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2023: Real-Time Payments, Instant Payments, CDBCs, Interoperability and Payment Pre-Validation
October 16, 2023
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2023 – yet another exciting year coming up for the payments industry!

Year after year, the rate of change in the payments world continues to accelerate. With a changing macroeconomic environment, increasingly demanding customers, hyperactive regulators, important market initiatives, as well as central banks experimenting with digital currency, 2023 is sure to be both challenging and exciting for the industry 

So, what do we expect for this year?  

This article is part of the After Hours by RedCompass Labs series. 
Where the best and brightest in the financial services industry tell what they really think about payments

Response to increasing interest rates 

Central banks across the world are increasing interest rates in an attempt to keep inflation under control. As a result, venture capital has slowed down in Europe and the United States, as investors have started to become more cautious. Fintechs, previously trading at astronomic valuations compared to their revenues, have taken a significant beating. Examples include Klarna, which was forced to lay off 10% of its staff after seeing its valuation sink from $45.6 to $6.7 billion in just a year, and checkout.com, previously Europe’s most valued startup, seeing its valuation sink from $40 to $11 billion. Will we continue to see fintechs folding or scaling back their ambitions - or, will banks seize the opportunity to snap up the tech and talent fintechs bring to the table at discounted acquisition prices? Either way, 2023 looks like it will be a challenging year for fintechs in all stages of growth. 

Of course, not only fintechs and startups are affected by increasing interest rates. And more particularly, when those rates are combined with a higher level of risk of late or non-payments and decreased access to credit, corporate treasurers will need to bolster their focus on working capital optimisation. As a result, we expect to see increased focus on solutions that will help in this regard, such as cash forecasting, cash pooling, factoring, trade financing, as well as solutions that can help render request for payment and dunning more efficient.. 

As liquidity becomes an increasingly scarce commodity, banks will seek to reduce their liquidity trapped in clearings and nostro accounts by rationalising their clearing and network strategies. Whereas positive interest rates could provide an additional source of revenue for financial institutions in the form of float, we would expect payment service users to increasingly make use of real-time payment methods in order to reduce the working capital impact from liquidity in transit.   

The proliferation of real time payments 

Real time payments are here - and they’re here to stay. With 79 countries across the globe having at least one form of real time payment system, domestic low-value payments are moving faster than ever. A few key highlights to watch out for in 2023 are the go-live of FedNow in the United States, which is set to become a worthy competitor of The Clearing House, a Real Time Rail (RTR) in Canada, as well as the looming instant payments legislation in the European Union, which will render instant payments ubiquitous throughout the SEPA region. 

These real-time rails are set to provide not only an accelerated payments experience for payers and payees, but also, when combined with overlay services such as proxy databases (eg Bizum) and rich request for payment functionality (eg. TCH-RTP), can support new use cases and user journeys. As transaction limits continue to increase on real-time rails, we expect their rails to become increasingly important for cash management offerings, leveraging the 24/7 nature of the schemes to perform physical pooling operations. 

Unfortunately, scammers are making use of these new payment methods as well, and we see that authorised push payment fraud is on the rise. Regulators, as well as the private market, have started to catch on, and are seeking to limit the financial and mental strain inflicted on victims of APP scams. 

Payment pre-validation 

One method communities of payment service providers (PSPs) are using to combat authorised push payment fraud, and particularly invoice fraud, is through the development of Confirmation of Payee Schemes.  

When using such a scheme, the payer’s PSP can contact the PSP of the beneficiary and validate that the name and the account number correspond. This allows the payer to be alerted of potential frauds, for instance, when an invoice has been doctored to have the payment redirected towards a money mule account. This account validation service, often offered at no cost to retail customers, can be monetised when distributed to corporates, who can use it to avoid being defrauded when setting up direct debit mandates or onboarding suppliers. An additional benefit of CoP schemes is that they can reduce the number of non-fraudulently misdirected payments (for instance, towards closed accounts), reducing the workloads associated to returning and reconciling such payments for PSP back offices and payment service users alike. 

Although such schemes have proven to be quite effective in preventing APP in markets such as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, history has shown that fraudsters will flock towards payment service providers that are not connected to the CoP scheme. Regulators have stepped in, with the UK’s payment systems regulator directing an additional 400 firms to introduce the protective measure, and the European Commission proposing to add a CoP obligation to all initiated instant payments through the Instant Payments legislation. 

Interoperability of CoP schemes is set to remain a challenge, as there are many domestic market practices that are hardly interoperable, and although most schemes are (loosely) based on the ISO 20022 model, there is no standardized market practice on how the XML-based format can best be translated to json. Players such as SWIFT, JP Morgan (Onyx-Confirm), iPiD, and Surepay are rising to the challenge and are working on developing interoperability services. We expect rapid evolution in this highly competitive and dynamic space in 2023.  

We see that payers are starting to expect upfront validation of their payments, not only regarding payments data, but also the end-to-end fees and FX rates they can expect. We see a renewed interest in guaranteed OUR payment methods, as well as services that allow all elements of a transaction to be pre-validated, such as SWIFT Go. The correspondent banking world is finally starting to catch up with the user experience provided by challengers such as Wise and 👉Ripple 

Revenues under pressure 

The impact these challenges have had on the payments industry should not be underestimated. They have systemically undercut financial institutions in their payment fees, instead seeking to generate revenues from FX margins. Today, customers are becoming savvier, and are better equipped to compare offers from different FX providers. This has caused downwards pressure on per-transaction revenues, especially from top-tier corporates. 

In order to safeguard profitability, financial institutions will need to choose whether to invest in capabilities that increase their straight-through processing rates and seek additional payment volumes through offerings such as embedded banking -  or, choose to partner with payments-as-a-service providers that have scale advantages. We expect artificial intelligence to play a significant role in the improvement of STP rates, as well as analytics tools capable of identifying sources of STP breakage. 

As the regulatory burden for payment service providers continues to grow in 2023, we would expect a sizeable number of smaller financial institutions to divest their payment processing activities, choosing instead to implement revenue-sharing models with larger financial institutions or payments-as-a-service providers. 

 Banks will also need to seek additional revenue streams from payment activities through the development of compelling value-added services that can help their corporate customers improve their insights or automate their internal processes.  

Interoperability 

Perhaps one of the most exciting predictions on the horizon for 2023 is that banks will finally start to see the fruit of their investment in ISO 20022 programmes. With SWIFT, as well as the clearing systems of multiple major currencies, set to go live on ISO 20022 in 2023 (EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, and USD, to name a few), we will finally start to see some live cross-border ISO traffic. But, it’s just the start. Now that the foundations have been laid, and in order to amortise their investments, payment service providers will need to find ways to optimise their efficiency by leveraging structured data and the interoperability provided by a common global payments language. In any case, clearing and settlement mechanisms have already started to explore the exciting prospect of interoperability, with IXB set to build a transatlantic bridge for low value payments. The use of local rails for low-cost money remittances is set to remain a hot topic, which will likely be further accelerated thanks to ambitious projects such as Mojaloop. 

As banks get over the initial hurdle of going live with ISO 20022 payments, they will need to prepare for increased volumes of data-rich payments, even as the PMPG guidelines advising banks to restrict the initiation of rich payments expire in November. Additionally, they will need to start thinking about how they will handle structured addresses (especially creditor addresses!) and additional identifiers such as LEI, as many real-time gross settlement mechanisms will start mandating this from 2025.  

Central Bank Digital Currencies 

Central Bank Digital Currencies are starting to become a reality. The European Institutions are expected to provide a legal foundation for the Digital Euro to become a reality in the second quarter of 2023. Despite the initial reluctance to include international interoperability and programmable money, the Eurogroup has started to open up to those functionalities, which are set to add significant value for users of the digital currency. The European Central Bank has been hard at work at developing a proof of concept and is expected to make a decision about launching a production Digital Euro in the fall of 2023 

The United States, despite having a slow start in their CBDC investigations, is catching up, and the topic is high up on the list of priorities for the US Department of Treasury. As such, we expect the Fed, which had expressed their hesitance to issue CBDC without clear congressional and executive support, to kick their exploration efforts in order not to fall behind their European and Asian counterparts. In the meantime, the Bank of International Settlements is running a wide range of projects to explore various aspects of CBDC and CBDC interoperability. 

Conclusion 

2023 promises to be an exciting year in payments, and RedCompass Labs is excited to continue accompanying our clients in defining and delivering their strategy to address the changing payments paradigm.

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For those individuals that still struggle to see why XRP is not being used currently at high volumes 📚

For those individuals that still struggle to see why XRP is not being used currently at high volumes, this should open your eyes.
USD is still the REGULATED WAY BANKS USE A BRIDGE CURRENCY. When BIS Prudential treatment of crypto assets reduces the RISK WEIGHT from 1250% to hold unbacked assets like Bitcoin, XRP, ETH, etc.. then, and only then BANKS WILL USE XRP for liquidity.

The way the FX functions presently is GBP to USD (Bridge currency) to PESO.

When crypto can be used, the flow will change to GBP to XRP (Bridge currency) to Peso

You MUST understand how XRP enables RLUSD. RLUSD does not diminish XRP’s use.

Navin Gupta explains the usecase for CBDC and currency FX.

Op: Mrmanxrp

00:01:33
Watch this video, it's important.

John McAfee: "Take the key, turn the lock & exit your cage". 😉

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Jekyll Island: The Truth Behind The Federal Reserve 💲

Jekyll Island: The Truth Behind The Federal Reserve by Bill (William) T. Still. 💵

Explores the hidden origins of the Fed & the secret 1910 meeting that shaped modern money. 📚

02:06:01
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

‼️ INSTITUTIONS PREDICT THAT BY END OF 2025, 100% OF MAJOR FINANCIAL CENTERS — INCLUDING THE U.S. — WILL HAVE APPROVED PRO-BLOCKCHAIN AND CRYPTO LEGISLATION‼️

“Global Regulatory Clarity”🌐

Soon.⏳

Documented.📝👇

Op: Smqkedqg

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🇺🇸 US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS FINALLY ENDING.

US Senate just voted 60-40 to end the government shutdown.

That means within days, the US government will reopen.

Here’s why this matters 👇

1️⃣ The TGA balance is sitting near $953 billion. Once the shutdown ends, Treasury spending will push this liquidity into the market, just as the Fed prepares to end QT in December.

2️⃣ Historically, every time TGA spending and Fed easing align, risk-on assets rally.

3️⃣ With the SEC back to work, pending Altcoin ETFs could move forward again.

4️⃣ Pro-crypto bill stuck in Congress are expected to pass once legislative operations resume.

This means 👇

→ Fiscal taps are reopening
→ Monetary tightening is ending
→ Crypto regulation will accelerate

In short, liquidity is coming back.

https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/1987765306438357261

How To Opt Out Of Meta Ai Data Sharing 📚

David Wolfe (@DavidWolfe) posted at 3:54 PM on Sun, Nov 09, 2025:

Starting December 16th, Meta will start feeding all your data to AI. This video is an instructional on how to turn these settings off.

https://x.com/DavidWolfe/status/1987624855546614156

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3I/ATLAS — Secret Laws Of Gravity
Unlocking the future of space travel through the precise calculation of time and orbital trajectories.

"My preliminary analysis suggests two principal hypotheses regarding the reported phenomenon known as '3I/Atlas':

  1. A Coordinated Psychological Operation (PsyOp): The phenomenon may constitute a calculated effort to manipulate public sentiment or induce fear, potentially preceding a planned, large-scale deception (referred to informally as 'Project Bluebeam').

  2. A Highly Anomalous Object: Alternatively, the phenomenon represents an authentic, significant anomaly warranting serious scientific or intelligence scrutiny.

Regardless of its origin, '3I/Atlas' represents an historically noteworthy development that necessitates close, informed observation."

 

~Crypto Michael | The Dinarian 🙏

Abstract Introduction:

New data is now showing something that arrived early and its changing colors as we previously predicted.

In orbital mechanics where trajectories are calculated centuries in advance with accurate precision measured in seconds.

A 11-minute deviation is not a rounding error.

It’s not a typo in the database.

It’s not close enough.

"It’s Physically impossible.”

Now The longest government shutdown in U.S. history still blocking NASA releases while the object executed its closest Fly-by approaches to Mars, The Sun and Venus at the moment of maximum observational blackout.

But orbital mechanics don’t care about “government shutdowns.”

Our observations Don’t Stop.

And the math doesn’t wait for “Press releases.”

The math says this:

“If 3I/ATLAS is natural, it should have lost about 5.5 billion tons of mass.”

It didn't.

1. The 5.5 Billion Ton Problem:

Let’s start with what everyone agrees on: 3I/ATLAS “now” arrived earlier than pure gravitational predictions would allow. Even though we have been mentioning this trajectory change over 2 Weeks ago (October 21st Article HERE) TRACKING 3I/ATLAS .

The scientific consensus explanation? “Natural outgassing” the "rocket effect." As water ice sublimates near the Sun, it creates thrust, like a slow-motion rocket engine powered by evaporating ice. Comets do this all the time. It’s normal. It’s natural. It’s explainable.

Except for ONE problem.

The Physics Don’t Add Up!”

To generate enough thrust to arrive approximately “11 minutes early” would require shedding a staggering amount of mass.

Our calculations show “over 5.5 billion tons” of gas ejected over the perihelion passage.

Think about that for a moment.

That’s not a little puff of vapor.

That’s not some gas leaking from surface cracks.

That’s 15% of the object’s total estimated mass.

If 3I/ATLAS lost that much material naturally, it would create a debris cloud larger than Jupiter’s magnetosphere—visible to amateur telescopes from Earth. Absolutely impossible to miss in professional observations, and bright enough to be catalogued by every sky survey on the planet.

1.1 ~ The Plume Paradox:

Here’s where it gets interesting:

No such cloud has yet to be observed.

Not by Hubble. Not by JWST. Not by ground-based observatories. Not by the Mars orbiters that watched it pass at 30 million kilometers.

The brightness remained within “expected limits.” The coma showed stable & geometric shifting features. The tail structure now disappeared (but that’s another story). The main one is that: “The debris cloud that should exist — simply doesn’t.”

This isn't a minor discrepancy.

This is complete, mathematical failure of the natural comet hypothesis.

Part 2: The Industrial Signature:

So if natural sublimation didn't create the thrust, what did?

The answer is hidden in the chemistry—specifically, in what shouldn’t be there. “The Nickel Anomaly.” When multiple astronomers analyzed 3I/ATLAS’s spectral signature, they found something extraordinary: “nickel vapor” (Ni) at extreme distances from the Sun, where temperatures should be far too cold for metals to vaporize naturally.

Nickel doesn't just evaporate on its own at those temperatures.

It needs HELP.

And there’s only one known process—natural or industrial—that produces a volatile nickel-carbon compound at cold temperatures which we have said several times previously;

Nickel Tetracarbonyl: Ni(CO)₄

This is not a natural cosmic process.

This is an “industrial chemical pathway” used on EARTH for metal refinement!!!

It forms at 120°C and decomposes at 180°C allowing nickel to vaporize at temperatures where water ice would remain frozen solid.

It is LITERALLY, an industrial refrigerant for metal processing.

The presence of Ni(CO)₄ in the plume tells us two things:

  • The core is not ice — It’s a nickel-rich, engineered structure.
  • The process is not passive sublimation — it’s an active, controlled system.

The nickel vapor isn’t contamination.

It’s not a coincidence.

It’s Exhaust.

3. Secret Gravity (SOEG) Model:

This is where our research team proposes something NEW.

We call it The “Self-Optimizing Ejection Guidance (SOEG) Model”

A Brand New Scientifically defensible framework that explains the acceleration not as chaotic outgassing, but as “controlled propulsion.”

The SOEG Model (Project EE / 3IE)

The System:
• Volatile Reservoir — CO₂ ice + Nickel-rich metallic core.
• Solar Heating — Perihelion triggers sublimation at optimal moment.
• Magnetic Ionization — Internal magnetic field ionizes nickel vapor into plasma.
• Anisotropic Jets — Plasma channeled through focused nozzles. (not random cracks)
• Thrust Optimization — Maximum momentum transfer with minimal mass loss.

Unlike natural cometary outgassing—which is chaotic, omnidirectional, and wildly inefficient. The SOEG Model Fully Represents: (CONTROLLED, DIRECTIONAL, OPTIMIZED PROPULSION.)

It’s the engineering solution to interstellar navigation: Using a “magnetofluidic drive” that uses the Sun’s + Nearby Planets & Star energy to activate a propulsion system that was BUILT.

The secret is in the magnetic field. By ionizing the nickel-carbon vapor into a high-velocity plasma jet, the system achieves thrust efficiencies that natural sublimation could never match.

This isn’t science fiction. This is “magnetohydrodynamics” the same physics that powers experimental plasma thrusters being developed by NASA and ESA for deep-space missions.

The difference?

We’re building prototypes…

Someone else already perfected it.

4. The Scientific Statistical Test:

Here’s what makes it undeniable.

Natural comets exhibit HIGH temporal variance in their acceleration parameters.

Technical terms like (A₁) and (A₂) that describe how thrust changes over time. Natural outgassing is messy, chaotic & unpredictable.

Our Prediction:

We formally predict that when sufficient post-perihelion data is published — expected from JUICE observations (data release February 2026) and ground-based telescopes through December 2025— 3I/ATLAS WILL show:

  • (A₂ parameter near zero) — phase-locked rotational coherence.
  • Temporal drift < 0.5σ — stability far beyond natural variance.
  • “Thrust vector alignment” with rotational axis — body-fixed engine signature.

If ALL 3 conditions are met.

The probability that 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet drops below 0.01% (a >4σ statistical rejection).

This is not speculation. This is a time-stamped, falsifiable prediction.

By February — March 2026, we will either be proven right or wrong.

The data doesn’t care about our theories. It only cares about what actually happens.

5. The Blue Hue 🔵:

Now there’s one more piece of evidence—and it’s visible to the naked eye (well, through a telescope). “The Color Anomaly.”

Natural comets scatter sunlight off dust particles, producing a yellowish-red glow. At 1.36 AU from the Sun, 3I/ATLAS should have appeared reddish-orange from thermal emission.

Instead, observers noted something strange: “A distinct blue fluorescence” in the coma.

What Blue Light Means?

Blue emission in a comet’s coma comes from highly ionized species—primarily “CO” (carbon monoxide ions) and certain excited metallic vapors. This requires enormous, “FOCUSED” energy to achieve.

You don’t get this level of ionization from passive solar heating. You get it from ~ Active Plasma Generation. The blue hue is the visible proof of the SOEG engine operating at perihelion. It’s the "engine glow" of a magnetofluidic drive generating high-energy plasma to achieve maximum thrust efficiency.

Compare:
- Natural comets (Hale-Bopp, NEOWISE, 67P, Etc.): Usual Yellowish-red dust scattering.
- Expected for 3I/ATLAS at 1.36 AU: Reddish-orange thermal glow.
- Observed in 3I/ATLAS: Distinct “Blue” plasma fluorescence.

This isn't subtle.

This is the difference between reflected sunlight and an active thruster firing.

5.5 ~ Convergence of Evidence:

Let's put it all together.

The Self-Optimizing Ejection Guidance (SOEG) Model is not speculation. It’s not wild theorizing. It’s one of the only frameworks that coherently explains:

✅ The early arrival— non-gravitational acceleration without natural explanation.

✅ The missing 5.5-billion-ton debris cloud — controlled thrust with minimal mass loss.

✅ The Ni(CO)₄ industrial signature — engineered propulsion chemistry.

✅ The blue plasma glow — active ionization system visible during perihelion.

✅ The statistical impossibility — phase-locked stability beyond natural variance. (pending verification)

However each piece of evidence, standing alone, is anomalous but potentially explainable.

Together, they form an interlocking pattern that demands a technological origin.

But then there’s the Silence.

Venus conjunction: Still offline.

This is not incompetence.

This is recognition.

THEY know something we’re still calculating.

December 19, 2025: 3I/ATLAS reaches closest approach to Earth at 167 million miles.

“If the calculations are correct, the 5.5-billion-ton debris cloud should be impossible to miss. Every telescope on the planet will be watching.”

All of this new information scheduled to be released should definitely include the following: High-resolution spectroscopy, morphological analysis, particle environment data and MOST CRITICALLY the astrometric parameters that will confirm or refute our SOEG model’s predictions.

“If the A₂ parameter shows phase-locked stability, the SOEG model is confirmed.”

Conclusion:

The Numbers Don’t Lie. The orbital path was not set by gravity alone. The acceleration was not powered by ice. The chemistry was not natural. And the timing is not “coincidental.”

3I/ATLAS is a message written in orbital mechanics, plasma physics, and industrial chemistry—a message we have “74 days” left to fully decode.

The mathematics are clear.

The predictions are calculated.

We don't have to speculate about what it is.

We just have to (wait) for the complete data packet to arrive.”

And when it does, one of two things will happen:

Either the natural hypothesis survives (unlikely, given the evidence). Or we confirm what the numbers have been screaming to us since October are TRUE.

Something pushed it. Something controlled it. Something arrived exactly when it needed to.”

Or The A-parameters will lock.

The plasma signature will confirm.

The debris cloud will be absent.

And the institutional silence will make perfect sense.

Because you don’t announce a discovery like this through a press release.

You announce it through a “Calculated Strategy.”

Analogy Conclusion:

The orbital path was set by laws that were not known,
For where the starlight failed, a force was subtly sown.

No dust and ice, but Nickel in the plume’s blue gleam,
A pulse of hidden power, of controlled, forgotten dreams.

The A-Parameter locks, The true secret of the sphere,
The Simultaneous Truth arrives, When all the numbers are near.

— Earth Exists

Additional Reference & Data Source Links 🖇️:

EARTH EXISTS Documentation:
- [Previous article. 35 Days of Silence — 3I/ATLAS]

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BlackRock Is Manipulating The Price Of Bitcoin👀

Blackrock possess a strategic depth that goes far beyond initial appearances. When the general market perceives selling and traders respond with emotion, these major players are often operating on a much more profound level. They adeptly identify and leverage every available mechanism to influence market dynamics. Their power isn't in direct control of the asset, but in understanding how to move the market without ever taking direct ownership.

What entity has become the most prominent corporate champion of Bitcoin ($BTC)?

It's the one with the massive treasury holdings, known as Microstrategy.

 

However, the major strategic challenge lies here: the size of their Bitcoin position is fundamentally linked to their external financing, typically in the form of debt.

This reliance on significant debt creates an inherent vulnerability—a dependence on creditors and shareholders. When an entity's position is highly leveraged, that dependence makes them susceptible to market manipulation or strategic pressure from external financial forces.

When a highly leveraged corporate holder of a significant asset (like $BTC) faces external financial stress, that pressure inevitably transfers to the asset itself.

Blackrock's goal isn't to induce a market crash, but rather to establish a dominant position and control.

Any substantial sale of major cryptocurrencies like $BTC or $ETH initiated by Blackrock, can be interpreted not as routine trading, but as a deliberate effort to manipulate market sentiment and pricing.

Blackrock is deploying a sophisticated combination of tactics: they simultaneously generate market volatility through strategic sales of the asset ($BTC) while accumulating shares in key corporate holders (the stock symbolized by $MSTR).

The deeper intent is to leverage this equity stake to direct the corporate strategy of the highly leveraged Bitcoin champion.

With a sufficiently large ownership percentage, this influence becomes highly effective. The resulting market power is therefore a function of both manipulating price movement and controlling corporate policy.

Is Microstrategy (the company represented by the $MSTR stock) vulnerable to this kind of pressure? The evidence suggests yes.

A substantial stake held by Blackrock grants them effective leverage to influence and manipulate the company itself.

When the company's shares experience a significant decline, the leadership is often compelled to take action, potentially buying back their own stock. This action is driven by the fact that falling share prices directly intensify financial and market pressure on the entire organization.

If the stock of Microstrategy continues a sustained decline, lenders will inevitably begin to re-evaluate and revise the terms of existing loans. This is a critical point of failure for the entire strategy.

The fundamental operational model of this corporate champion works like a closed loop:

  • It secures debt financing (taking loans) to acquire $BTC.

  • Alternatively, it issues new equity (selling shares) to acquire $BTC.

Crucially, the ongoing interest payments on this substantial debt are often managed by the mechanism of issuing even more shares, creating a continuous cycle of dilution and reliance on a high stock price.

A major consequence of rising leverage is the escalating cost of borrowing, requiring Microstrategy to source even larger amounts of capital.

The most straightforward solution—to issue and sell more stock—proved to be insufficient.

In fact, the situation worsened: the company’s recent attempt to raise funds through a stock offering did not fully sell out. This failure directly resulted in a significant liquidity shortfall, hamstringing Microstrategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations and continue its asset acquisition strategy.

And the ultimate shock came when Microstrategy—the very entity that vowed it would never liquidate its holdings—began to sell.

These weren't insignificant trades; the sales were valued at billions of dollars.

The key question now becomes: Does this sudden, massive reversal signal the imminent collapse of Microstrategy, or is it simply a necessary, albeit drastic, maneuver of 'business as usual' under extreme duress?

There appear to be two primary strategic objectives behind Blackrock's calculated moves:

  • Scenario A (Direct Dominance): Blackrock aims to neutralize its most prominent competitor (the corporate Bitcoin accumulator) in order to seize the title as the largest holder of $BTC.

  • Scenario B (Indirect Control): The institution’s goal is to establish absolute market control and influence, preferring to leverage Microstrategy to execute the most aggressive or politically difficult actions.

The outright financial destruction of Microstrategy is highly improbable. Such an action would trigger a severe market crash that could take years to fully repair.

The far more intelligent strategy is integration and control.

Under this model, Microstrategy remains operational, while Blackrock secretly dictates strategy. This allows Microstrategy to absorb the market blame for any necessary but controversial manipulation, a classic and often dirty tactic used by high-powered financial entities.

In the immediate future, the market will continue to exhibit strong reactions to the strategic maneuvers of Blackrock.

When they execute sales, it instantly captures headlines, is aggressively amplified by the media, and causes fearful retail traders ('weak hands') to panic and exit their positions.

Every decrease in price that results from this panic directly translates into a superior entry point for Blackrock. This clearly illustrates that the current market environment is driven purely by emotion, making it a survival game reserved only for those with the strongest resolve.

In the long run, the nature of $BTC will likely shift, moving away from its original ideals of being completely free and decentralized.

The vast majority of the available supply is projected to become highly concentrated within a small number of major corporations and investment funds.

Consequently, the price cycles will no longer be reliably tied to events like halvings or popular narratives. Instead, they will be driven primarily by government and central bank policy decisions, overarching macroeconomic conditions, and the internal political maneuverings of the world's most dominant funds and corporations.

Blackrock's goal is not to eliminate $BTC; instead, they are focused on constructing an elaborate system of control around the asset.

Microstrategy (the stock symbolized by $MSTR) remains a powerful tool, but it now operates under terms and directives that the company's leadership no longer fully dictates.

Since direct command over the decentralized asset is impossible, control is established through strategic influence over the largest corporate and fund custodians. Moving forward, Blackrock will be the primary entity determining the market's trajectory.

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A Request for NASA to Release Scientific Data on 3I/ATLAS

During my recent podcast interview with Joe Rogan (accessible here), I had mentioned the unfortunate circumstances, under which NASA had not released for four weeks the images collected by the HiRISE camera onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. These images were taken on October 2–3, 2025, when the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS passed within 30 million kilometers from Mars. The images are extremely valuable scientifically because they possess a spatial resolution of 30 kilometers per pixel, about 3 times better than the spatial resolution achieved in the best publicly available image from the Hubble Space Telescope, taken on July 21, 2025 (accessible here and analyzed here). Whereas the Hubble image was taken from an edge-on perspective since Earth and the Sun were separated by only ~10 degrees relative to distant 3I/ATLAS, the HiRISE image offers a sideways perspective, valuable in decoding the mass loss geometry and glow around as it approached the Sun.

The delay in the data release was argued to be the result of the government shutdown on October 1, 2025. Nevertheless, conspiracy theorists suggested that it may have to do with evidence for extraterrestrial intelligence in the HiRISE images. When asked about it, I suggested that the delay is probably not a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence but rather of terrestrial stupidity. We should not hold science hostage to the shutdown politics of the day. The scientific community would have greatly benefited from the dissemination of this time-sensitive data as astronomers plan follow-up observations in the coming months.

Joe Rogan suggested that I contact the interim NASA administrator, Sean Duffy. The following day, I corresponded with congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna regarding a related formal request from NASA. Following our exchange, Representative Luna wrote a brilliant letter to NASA’s acting administrator Duffy.

We all owe a debt of deep gratitude for the visionary support displayed by Representative Luna to frontier science through her letter, attached below.

Avi Loeb is the head of the Galileo Project, founding director of Harvard University’s — Black Hole Initiative, director of the Institute for Theory and Computation at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and the former chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University (2011–2020). He is a former member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and a former chair of the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Academies. He is the bestselling author of “Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth” and a co-author of the textbook “Life in the Cosmos”, both published in 2021. The paperback edition of his new book, titled “Interstellar”, was published in August 2024.

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