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Japan FinTech Observer
March 19, 2024
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Will they, or won't they? The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) will publish its rate decision on Tuesday, although, if you are reading the Nikkei, you would be forgiven to believe the decision has already been made (the BoJ has as many leaks as a long-abandoned akiya).

Similar to the Nikkei extending beyond the bubble high, and cracking 40,000, any BoJ move in March (or April) will be largely symbolic and not change the mid-term path for Japanese interest rates. NIRP will end, and the range for short-term interest rates move from between -0.1% and 0% to between 0% and 0.1%. Expect an upper range of 0.25%, or possibly 0.5% by the end of the year.

FX markets did not budge. The JPY/USD exchange rate is set by the Fed, and not the Bank of Japan, having moved from the lower 140s at the end of last year, when economists were expecting up to six Fed rate cuts, back close to 150 now that the consensus seems to settle on three.

Here is what we are going to cover this week:

  • Venture Capital & Private Markets: Decima has completed a funding round of 4.5 billion yen for its fund jointly managed with gumi, MZ Cryptos, SBI Holdings, and Animoca Brands; Integral Corporation announced the first closing of “Fund V Series” at JPY 180 billion raised; M&A Cloud has raised a total of 1.25 billion yen through debt financing from Kiraboshi Bank, Shizuoka Bank, Japan Finance Corporation, Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, and Fivot (Flex Capital); Hyperithm has invested in Superfluid
  • Green Finance: FANPS (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, MS&AD Holdings, Japan Finance Corporation, Norinchukin Bank) has established a platform to accumulate knowledge related to "nature positive"; Carbon EX, a 50/50 joint venture between ASUENE and SBI Holdings, demonstrates strong growth; Hitachi, in collaboration with Persefoni Japan, has developed a green house gas (GHG) emissions calculation service
  • Insurance: international InsurTech bolttech has partnered with refurbished device marketplace Back Market for one of its first commercial launches in Japan; Dai-ichi Life acquire a 19.9% strategic minority stake in Canyon Partners; AXA Life Insurance and AXA Direct Life Insurance merge
  • Banking: an alliance of Airbnb, ORICO, and Akikatsu, is aiming at promoting the effective utilization of vacant homes through ORICO-guaranteed loans from regional financial institutions; Hokkoku Financial Group plans to build a fully cloud-based acquiring system in collaboration with Visa and Infcurion
  • Payments: Wise Payments Japan has obtained a Type 1 license as a Money Transfer Operator; the Japanese government is reportedly in discussions with Southeast Asian countries about sharing QR code payment services; PayPay, PayPay Bank, and PayPay Securities launched a simplification of account opening procedures
  • Capital Markets & Asset Management: Japanese securities firms stepping up support for startups; Nomura has realigned the firm’s collective asset and investment management capabilities in the Americas; Matsui Securities has selected Broadridge Financial Solutions' cloud-based SaaS post-trade processing solution for its stock lending business
  • Digital Assets: TIS has started a collaboration with Umi Labs, integrating web2 and web3 technologies on the Sui Network; Sony Bank announced the release of “Sony Bank CONNECT” in summer 2024, aiming to contribute to the expansion of the creator and fan economy in the web3 era; KDDI, STYLY, monoAI technology, and REALITY XR cloud announced the launch of the “Open Metaverse Network”

Venture Capital & Private Markets

  • Decima GP Limited has completed a total funding round of approximately 4.5 billion yen for Decima Fund; the Fund was established with the purpose of incubating domestic projects aiming for overseas expansion and overseas projects aiming to enter the Japanese market, as well as investing in listed tokens; the Fund will be jointly managed with GPs that have expertise in the Web3 domain, including gumi, MZ Cryptos, SBI Holdings, and Animoca Brands
  • Integral Corporation announced the first closing of their new funds, the “Fund V Series”, with several domestic and foreign investors participating, and approximately JPY 180 billion raised; the final Capital Commitment goal is more than JPY 200 billion for the Fund V Series, expected to be completed during 2024
  • M&A Cloud has raised a total of 1.25 billion yen through debt financing from Kiraboshi Bank, Shizuoka Bank, Japan Finance Corporation, Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, and Fivot (Flex Capital); the funds raised will be invested in hiring to strengthen the organization, as well as in marketing to expand the advisory business and the matching platforms “M&A Cloud” and “Funding Cloud”
  • Hyperithm has invested in Superfluid, an Ethereum-based token streaming protocol that enables real-time crypto transfers; Superfluid is a revolutionary asset streaming protocol that brings subscriptions, salaries, vesting, and rewards to DAOs and crypto-native businesses worldwide
  • Deerpath Capital, one of the largest providers of customized, cash-flow based senior debt financing to lower middle market companies across North America, announced the opening of its latest international office in Tokyo

Green Finance


Insurance

  • International InsurTech bolttech has partnered with leading refurbished device marketplace, Back Market; the partnership, which marks one of bolttech's first commercial launches in Japan, will deliver embedded device protection to Back Market's customers through a seamless online experience
  • Canyon Partners, a $24 billion global alternative investment manager, announced that Dai-ichi Life Holdings has agreed to acquire a 19.9% strategic minority stake in the Canyon business; Under the terms of the agreement, Dai-ichi has the right to acquire up to 51% of the equity interest in Canyon in 2027 and up to 100% in 2029
  • The FSA has given approval to AXA Life Insurance and AXA Direct Life Insurance for the merger of the two companies based on the provisions of Article 167, Paragraph 1 of the Insurance Business Act, under the name AXA Life Insurance, a 100% subsidiary of AXA Holdings Japan
  • On the occasion of InsureTech Connect Tokyo last week, Plug and Play have released their Japan "Insurtech Report 2024"

Banking

  • Accenture has published its take on Aozora Bank's US commercial real estate exposure and the overall Japanese banking sector in its February 2024 macro economic brief; we have previously reported on Aozora's earnings adjustment for this fiscal year in the Japan FinTech Observer
  • An alliance of Airbnb, ORICO, and Akikatsu, is aiming at promoting the effective utilization of vacant homes; users of the web information platform “Akikatsu Navi,” which matches vacant homeowners with prospective buyers, will be able to obtain a “Home Sharing Loan” when purchasing or renovating a vacant home for the purpose of home sharing; the “Home Sharing Loan” is an unsecured loan or small business loan with high convenience to meet a wide range of funding needs related to personal and corporate home sharing operations; the loan limit is expected to range from 500,000 yen to 1,000,000 yen, with a maximum repayment period of 5 to 10 years; ORICO will guarantee the loans from regional financial institutions
  • Hokkoku Financial Group announced the initiation of building a full cloud-based acquiring system in collaboration with Visa Worldwide Japan and Infcurion; this system is equipped with functions necessary for acquiring operations such as authorization, clearing, merchant settlement and management, and connections to payment centers and international brands, for the latter of which Hokkoku FG will be the first domestic company to utilize “Visa Cloud Connect”
MUFG's new headquarter building, to be opened in 2029

Payments


Capital Markets & Asset Management

  • Japanese securities firms stepping up support for startups
  • Nomura Holdings has realigned the firm’s collective asset and investment management capabilities in the Americas under the new brand Nomura Capital Management (NCM); NCM is a subsidiary of Nomura Holding America (NHA) and will integrate Nomura Group’s public and private credit offerings to maximize the firm’s growth opportunities and to better serve institutional and intermediary clients in the Americas
  • Matsui Securities has selected Broadridge Financial Solutions' cloud-based SaaS post-trade processing solution to drive operational efficiency in its stock lending business; system integrator Intelligent Wave will develop the front office component and system integration as well as provide project management and overall consultation to Matsui Securities
  • Asset manager Franklin Templeton has appointed, effective April 1, Takashi Takamura as the president and country head of Japan, reporting to Tariq Ahmad, head of Asia-Pacific, with responsibility for leading the firm’s retail and institutional business in Japan
  • Nomura has published its "Individual Investor Survey March 2024"

Digital Assets

  • TIS has started a collaboration with Umi Labs Japan from March 2024, aiming for social implementation by integrating web2 and web3 technologies utilizing zero-knowledge proofs, decentralized ID/VC/VP, and OAuth on the Sui Network; in this collaboration, TIS will be responsible for planning, design, and production, while Umi Labs Japan will take charge of technology research and development, with the goal of creating new markets
  • Sony Bank announced the release of “Sony Bank CONNECT” in summer 2024, aiming to contribute to the expansion of the creator and fan economy in the web3 era; users will be able to enjoy digital content such as NFTs previously distributed by Sony Bank through campaigns, and digital content to be presented to customers who purchase Sony Bank’s digital security “US Dollar-Denominated Green Finance Security Token (№1 of 2024)”
  • KDDI, STYLY, monoAI technology, and REALITY XR cloud announced the launch of the “Open Metaverse Network,” Japan’s largest metaverse alliance that connects multiple metaverse platforms; this alliance enables companies and municipalities considering business utilization of the metaverse not only to use a single metaverse platform but also to connect multiple metaverse platforms and incorporate real-world spaces for multidimensional project planning; it offers comprehensive services, from consulting for smooth implementation and solving business challenges to event planning and spatial content production

In the Region

  • We have published the first edition of the "Korea FinTech Observer" as we have seen sufficient news flow crossing our desk; we might aim to release the Korea coverage twice per month
  • The 136th episode of the eXponential FinancePodcast features Arthit (T) Sriumporn, Founder & Chief Executive of Rakkar Digital, a digital asset custodian; you can find the podcast on all major platforms, or through our Podlink

Have an awesome week ahead.

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🚨Interview with Jack McDonald CEO of Standard Custody & Trust🚨

Jack McDonald, Co-Founder of PolySign alongside Arthur Britto Timestamps for the Video listed below

Timestamps:
0:50 — Founded PolySign with Arthur Britto.
0:57 — Founding of Standard Custody.
1:01 — Ripple acquires Standard Custody.
1:20 — Why Ripple entered stablecoins and custody
1:40 — Discussion regarding Ripple and USDC
2:40 — Acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road.
3:12 — Hidden Road’s client base
4:15 — Ripple pledges $25 million
4:46 — Forward-looking commentary

OP: @ProfRipplEffect

00:06:55
👉You Will Own Nothing, And Be Happy...

"Ever notice how you don't actually own anything anymore? Your music 🎶, your movies 🎬, your cloud storage ☁—all of it is just a subscription 💳."

"You think you have things, but you only have access to things 🔑."

"Your identity lives inside a digital system 💻 you have no control over, and it can be flagged 🚩, restricted 🚫, or revoked automatically with no warning 🚨."

"In this society, you don't have freedom anymore. You just access it as long as the system recognises you 👀."

"Welcome to neo-feudalism—a world where your entire life is one system update away from disappearing 👻."

00:01:06
🚨EXPLAINED: BRICS LAUNCHES A GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY: THE "UNIT" It's called the "Unit."🚨

This is a live prototype for an alternative to the US dollar in international trade.

What Is It?

A digital currency for trade between BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

It's backed by a basket of their local currencies and physical gold. How It Works (Simplified):

1⃣ Step 1: The "Basket" is Created. A "Unit Reserve Basket" holds: 40% in physical gold (40 grams for the first test batch). 60% in five BRICS currencies (12% each: Real, Yuan, Rupee, Ruble, Rand).

2⃣ Step 2: Units Are Issued. On October 31, 2025, 100 Units were created. Each Unit was worth exactly 1 gram of gold.

3⃣ Step 3: Value Fluctuates with the Market. The Unit's value changes daily based on the strength of the currencies in the basket vs. gold.

By December 4, the basket's value had adjusted to 98.23 grams of gold. Therefore, 1 Unit = 0.9823g of gold.

The Goal: Trade Without Dollars. Countries could use Units to settle transactions, reducing reliance on the US dollar and keeping their gold reserves ...

00:05:36
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

🚨JUST IN: SEC ENDS 2-YEAR ONDO PROBE

The SEC has closed its investigation into $ONDO, giving Ondo Finance the green light to accelerate its U.S. tokenization expansion.

Best Brief Pep Talk for Homo Sapiens

".....the Kingdom of God is within you...." 

".....my Kingdom is of a different Age...."  

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1180503997433929

Why your privacy matters:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1JTYg4iJzv/

Do you realize that if you are an American, your overall right to privacy is guaranteed by the Federal Constitutions as expressed by the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 9th and 14th Amendments? 

👉Did you know that you have to choose to be an American, even if you were born and raised in this country?  

Go to: https://tasa.americanstatenationals.org/

They are trying to invade your privacy by bombarding you with Electromagnetic Radiation, non-consensual scanning, non-consensual nanotech implants and non-consensual tracking. 

Have you had enough?  Good.

We just told Donald Trump and his Administration, point blank, to shut down the whole invasive "secret" program.  It's not a secret anymore. 

No matter what the Luciferians believe, and no matter what they do, the Kingdom of the True God is ...

👉Millennials & Gen-Z are Poorer Than Ever (Here's Why)

🚨 Discover the shocking truth about the millennial wealth gap and gen z financial struggles. From housing costs to student debt, learn why younger generations face unprecedented economic challenges.

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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

Source

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

Source

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💳 PayPal
2) Simply scan the QR code below 📲 or Click Here

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XDC: xdcc2C02203C4f91375889d7AfADB09E207Edf809A6

 

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den… the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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