TheDinarian
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The Art of False Defeat in The Housing Market
November 14, 2024
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Have you ever been in a sports league or played on a rec team? You wake up in the morning thinking about the big game coming and psyching yourself up for the big win. Nothing is going to stop you – you are pumped!

You think about all of the best players on your team, both offense and defense, then you start assessing the players on the other team and how you are going to out-maneuver them. Your team has built a solid strategy, run plays exceptionally together, you’ve won countless games and you know you got this in the bag. You are heading for the playoffs!

But then the coaches on the other team are informing everyone that they’ve already won, the news is spinning the same tale, and everyone is telling you that your team has lost even before the game began. People aren’t even planning on going to the game because they know the other team has already won – it’s all the buzz. Even your sponsors dropped you. People aren’t interested in cheering for the underdog because they are so distracted by the winners flooding them with information on how they beat everyone. You may as well not even play for there is no chance of winning – you will never make it to the playoffs – so you are told.

Suddenly you find yourself in doubt and start sizing up the players for defensive moves, and you feel drenched in defeat before the game even begins. Do you think you are going to win that game?

This is how the “you will own nothing and be happy” camp pump out their PR and marketing to serve their private equity and hedge fund masters. The art of false defeat is a powerful social engineering tool, and they use it well. They play both offense and defense. Team offense pushes out the fear-mongering and propaganda to get everyone worked up, in a panic, and believing they are totally defeated, while the private equity and hedge fund masters play defense, claiming none of it is true. Of course, no one is going to believe them so they hedge their bets on team offense. And, once this goes on long enough, team offense is no longer needed because the sheer defeat felt by people will naturally propagate more defeat while sounding the alarm and essentially becoming the “free-of-charge” marketing arm for the camp. We have all fed into this.

Similarly, the same camp manufactures both sides of catastrophes – swooping in to save the day. They are always playing both offense and defense with the goal of making people feel defeated.

This is what’s happening in the U.S. housing market. They want everyone to feel defeated, as though people already “own nothing and will be happy.” It’s a PR stunt that’s been ingrained in everyone’s head and widely used by the masses.

But the reality is, when it comes to the U.S. housing market, homeowners and small mom-and-pop investors are actually killing it! Everyone was told that BlackRock was buying up all of the homes in America, that the big institutional investors own it all, and there is no hope for our future, but this isn’t the case. This doesn’t mean that private equity firms aren’t pulling out all the tricks and trying to gobble up the housing market, or that you should take your eye off the ball, but it’s important to understand the true reality versus hyperbole.

After publishing my 42-page comprehensive report on “Who Really Owns The U.S. Housing Market? The Complete Roadmap” packed with hundreds of data points and charts, I ran 8 polls across social media platforms to see what people believed to be true. I already suspected the outcomes in advance, which is why I wanted to run these polls to make a point.

Between all 8 polls, across 3 social media platforms, 83-95% of people got every single one wrong.

This is what false defeat looks like.

 

Poll Results:

1) Who do you think owns the most single-family homes in the U.S.?

Homeowners 10%
Mom-and-Pop Investors 3%
Institutional Investors 87%

90% got it wrong

The correct answer is Homeowners, then mom-and-pop investors, and last is institutional investors. The institutional investors account for those who own 100+ single-family homes. Mom-and-pop investors own between 1-19 homes and that includes the 6.5 million second-homeowners. The mid-size investors own between 20-99 homes and only account for 5% of purchases of existing single-family homes while the institutional investors only account for 2%. Mom-and-pops sit at 18% of purchases. See my full report for details on who owns what, how many, and an endless trail of other statistics.

 

2) What percentage of American homeowners own their home outright and are mortgage-free?

10 – 19% – 69%
20 – 29% – 18%
30 – 40% – 13%

87% got it wrong

As of 2022, 39.28% of homeowners owned their home outright, mortgage-free, with no liens. This is an increase of 6.5% since 2010. That’s nearly 40%!

 
 

3) How many single-family homes do you believe BlackRock has purchased?

0 – 2,500 – 5%
2,501 – 5,000 – 5%
5,001 – 10,000 – 90%

95% got it wrong (and possibly more)

The answer is zero. BlackRock hasn’t purchased any homes. They do not purchase single-family homes. Instead, they invest for their clients in the build-to-rent single family communities, in building companies, building material companies, multifamily properties, and mortgage securities. They’ve invested $120 billion into U.S. residential real estate. That said, they are the top shareholder in companies covering nearly every sector of the housing industry which gives them powerful voting rights and control to dictate the operations of a company, which gives them a monopoly and everyone can agree on, is not good. To see who IS buying up single-family homes to rent, read the full report.

 
 

4) From which foreign country do you think individuals & investors have purchased the most U.S. residential properties over the past 14 years?

India – 11%
China – 81%
Canada – 8%

92% got it wrong

The correct answer is Canada. The top five are Canada, China, Mexico, India, and the UK. Other investors are from Colombia, Brazil, Germany, Cuba, and Israel.

 
 

5) There are over 43,000 manufactured & mobile home communities across the U.S. What % do you think mom-and-pop investors own vs big investors and corporations?

Mom-and-Pops own:

25 – 45% – 70%
46 – 65% – 17%
66 – 85% – 13%

87% got it wrong

The mom-and-pops are killing it in this sector, holding 75% ownership. 25% is owned by a combination of private equity firms, hedge funds, and big corporations. Over 21 million Americans live in these communities and the private equity firms have no mercy on these people. Read the report to see what firms are buying them (such as Blackstone and the Carlyle Group) and Fannie and Freddie’s involvement.

 
 

6) What percentage of Americans do you think are homeowners as opposed to being renters?

40 – 55% – 70%
56 – 70% – 17%
71 – 85% – 13%

83% got it wrong

65.6% of Americans are homeowners. The homeownership rate has toggled between 62.9% and 69.2% dating back to 1965.

 
 

7) Foreigners own approx 43.4 million acres of 878 million acres of U.S. Farmland. Investors from which foreign country own the most U.S. farmland by a long shot?

Netherlands – 1%
Canada – 7%
UK – 5%
China – 87%

93% got it wrong – way wrong

Canada owns 32% of the 43.4 million acres of U.S. farmland, the Netherlands 12%, Italy 6%, UK 6%, Germany 5% and China owns less than 1%. China is often used as a propaganda scapegoat of sorts. The big investors need to create an enemy for people to focus on so that people aren’t paying attention to the billionaires like Bill Gates or the institutional investors who are buying up farmland.

 
 

8) The U.S vacation rental market is over $17.5 billion and half the rentals are single-family homes. Who do you think dominates this market?

Individual & Small Investors – 13%
Investors with 20-99 units – 9%
Big Investors with 100+ units – 78%

87% got it wrong

Once again, individuals and the small mom-and-pops rule this market, holding 70% of it. The mid-size investors hold 20% and the big institutional investors only hold 10% of the market.

 
 

Still Feel Defeated?

This isn’t to paint a picture that everything is all hunky-dory in the housing market, because private equity firms are on a fast track to build up single-family rental home communities, continue to build out multifamily homes, and expand on student housing, while they keep their sites on the manufactured housing communities. The big investors such as BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street most certainly have a seat at the table for voting rights and dictating how a company should operate, in many sectors of the housing industry. There is no doubt about it – these guys are trying to monopolize the real estate market and all assets, but they want you to feel defeated and paralyzed from making decisions, from buying or investing, and from seeing that they are not all-powerful.

On top of that, many states are jacking up property taxes, homeowners insurance, and of course general inflation across the board. Everyone is feeling the squeeze.

However, homeowners and mom-and-pop investors dominate the single-family sector, vacation rentals, and the manufactured housing communities, with over 65% being homeowners as opposed to renters, and nearly 40% own their homes outright. When you read my full report, you will see how significant this is. There are nearly 100 million single-family homes (attached and detached) and investors, including the mom-and-pops (the largest bracket), only own less than 15 million. Furthermore, China does not own all of our farmland! They own less than 1% of all foreign-owned U.S. farmland. There are so many misconceptions out there, which is why it’s vital for people to review all of the actual numbers throughout this report.

 

The Reality of “Owning”

Many people will say that even those who own their homes outright and have the deed in their hand don’t really own their house because if they don’t pay their property taxes, their house can be seized. Whereas, I do agree that property taxes are unconstitutional and like a form of extortion, I don’t know that I agree with the blanket statement that they therefore do not own their homes. We could apply that same theory to almost any of their “systems.” Let’s take cars for example. Let’s say you pay for your car outright with cash. You now own the title. But in order to drive it you have to pay for a license plate renewal sticker, get emissions tests, and carry insurance. If you neglect to do any of those things and get caught out on the road, your car could be impounded. The only way to get it back is to pay fines and deal with the courts. So did you ever really own it? Sure, if you play by their rules and pay their fees.

What about having a dog or a cat as a pet? You buy or adopt the pet, get the papers, and officially own the pet. But what happens if you don’t follow the rules of having to get an abundance of rabies shots? Most vets, groomers, and pet shops won’t even give you access to their services, and if your dog gets attacked by another dog and animal control is called and they find out your dog doesn’t have its rabies, they can take your dog away. So was the dog ever truly yours to begin with? Only if you play by their rules and pay their fees.

One last example, and a very important one, is banking. You put the money that you own in a bank, but the bank charges fees for various services and many banks won’t let you take out more than $5,000 of your money, at a time. You have to put in an order to extract more out. What if there was an emergency and you are forced to wait as long as a week to get the money you “own” out of their bank? They are in the process of trying to move to a digital currency world and have already illustrated ways they can control your access to your money and how you spend it, which I have covered extensively. Are you going to extract all your cash out of the bank or are you going to risk keeping what you “own” in their system? If you do hand it all over to them, with all of the above conditions and possibilities, are you declaring that you do not “own” your money? So then, if this digital currency locks into place one day and they have control over how you spend your money and lock you out of your account, are you just going to let your money go because you are declaring that you don’t “own” the money anyway since they have imposed these restrictions on you? Or is this any different than the imposed property taxes to maintain the deed to your home you own?

Listen, if you haven’t realized by now that the global mafia (see my “Who is They” article) takes a slice of the pie in every single industry, and designed it that way, then you’re not paying attention. This doesn’t make it right, and that’s why so many people are battling against them and their systems they’ve put in place. But the bottom line is – you either focus on the positive and take action where you can, or you live in defeat and choose to see everything as doom and gloom. If you own your home and want to relinquish your ownership and claim to the world that your deed is meaningless because you have to pay property taxes, then live in defeat.

The fact of the matter is, while we are here in our short journey on planet earth, do we really technically own anything or do we claim ownership, buy and sell, move things around, play in their systems, and leave all material possessions behind when we leave this planet? Much of it is a matter of perspective. So in our short time here you can choose to live in defeat and feel that this global mafia has you by the balls, or you can appreciate the positive things and opportunities that come into your life and project that positivity outward so as to reject the negative BS trying to steamroll you. You can also come up with solutions, and there are many throughout this site. Bottom line – It’s a choice. Everything is a choice, and when you start claiming you have no choices, then you are playing into their victimhood scheme to keep you defeated.

 

The Point of This Article

We have far more skin in the game than they want you to believe. In fact, homeowners and mom-and-pop investors are the majority.

It’s critical to get to the truth and understand the actual numbers, rather than believing everything you hear or read. Sometimes our emotions get the best of us and when we know what these people are capable of it makes it really easy to believe propaganda at times. But we must stay focused and see the opportunities before us rather than just the gloom. There are opportunities for individuals and small mom-and-pop investors to expand on their skin in the game instead of accepting a totally false defeat. People can start taking action now on a local, state and federal level to squeeze out the monopolies of big investors. Use their game against them. They wanted this propaganda out there to put people in a state of fear, so instead, use the actual facts in this report to show your state representatives how these private equity firms are pulling rental increases, evictions, and other stunts to try to buy up real estate. The topic is already primed.

Recently in Maine, tenants of a mobile home community pooled together to buy their property so that big investors wouldn’t come in and snatch it up. New York, Connecticut and Maine have all passed laws allowing tenants of manufactured home communities to buy the land on which their mobile homes sit so that investors don’t buy them up, raise their rent, and give them the boot. This is a huge win and should inspire others to follow suit!

Whether you are looking to buy, sell, rent, invest, relocate, or just want to keep your eye on the ball, this report will act as a roadmap, showing where individuals, mom-and-pop investors and large investors monopolize different sectors of the housing industry and where the hot locations are. It is packed with hundreds of statistics and charts to provide both context and visual aids for a comprehensive view of how the landscape of America is shifting.

This is the most comprehensive report out there today and it’s free to read right here! It’s also available in pdf format in The Bookshop.

The Complete Roadmap:
• Single-Family Homes and The Rental Market: Homeowners Versus Investors
• The Top 6 Companies That Own Single-Family Home Rentals
• Build-To-Rent Single-Family Home Communities
• Foreign-Owned U.S. Residential Property
• Manufactured Housing Communities
• Vacation Rental Homes Market
• Student Housing Market
• The Affordable Housing Scheme
• Private Equity and Large Investors
• The Biggest Takeaways – Stats and Suggestions

READ the full report and share it with your family, friends, co-workers and across social media so that people know the facts and can make better decisions for themselves and their families.

 

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The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a healthy cooldown as Ethereum (ETH) eases to $4,440 from its recent peak of $4,780. The pullback has weighed on most major altcoins — including Pyth Network (PYTH) — which is down about 5% over the past week.

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What’s Next for PYTH?

For the bullish fractal to fully play out, PYTH will need to close decisively above the $0.1235–$0.1481 zone, ideally on rising volume. A confirmed breakout could open the door to the first upside target of $0.21, representing roughly 78% potential gains from current levels.

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Deep Dive into Pyth Network 💎💎💎💎💎
👉From November 2024😉

What are Oracles?

Blockchains in and of themselves are useful already, for trustless and permissionless transactions without censorship. No trust or verification from the user is required because it is stored on a decentralised ledger with global consensus. What if certain transactions require reliable and real-time data from external sources that do not necessarily have a global consensus or can be stored on the same ledger? For example:

  • Products that rely on price feeds of assets from other blockchains or real-world markets: Many decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, like decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, need accurate and timely information about asset prices (e.g., stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities). Since these prices are continuously changing in real-world markets, blockchains need a way to securely access this off-chain data.
  • Products that require verifiable and secure random numbers: Randomness is crucial for a variety of blockchain use cases, such as lotteries, gaming, and even secure cryptographic protocols. However, generating truly random numbers on-chain is challenging without introducing bias or predictability. Off-chain randomness, when provided by a reliable source, is often needed.
  • Products dependent on historical price data: Some DeFi platforms and financial products might need access to archived price data for risk assessment, backtesting trading strategies, or offering historical analysis. Since blockchains primarily focus on storing current state information, they need external sources to provide this historical data efficiently.

To address these challenges, Oracles were introduced. Oracles serve as bridges between blockchains and the external world, providing smart contracts with access to off-chain data. They connect external data providers—such as market data owners, web APIs, or IoT devices—to decentralized applications across multiple blockchains. Oracles enable these applications to securely and reliably obtain real-time data, execute transactions based on external events, and interact with data that cannot be directly stored on-chain.

Why can this data be trusted? Oracles provide a robust mechanism for ensuring the integrity and reliability of off-chain data before it is used on the blockchain. An oracle network verifies the:

  • Authenticity: To ensure that the data is genuine and comes from a legitimate source, oracle networks source data from multiple trusted providers or verifiable APIs. This process reduces the risk of malicious or false information being introduced into smart contracts.
  • Accuracy: Accurate data is crucial for smart contracts to function correctly. Oracles achieve this by aggregating data from several independent sources. Instead of relying on a single provider, an oracle network will query multiple data sources and compare their responses.
  • Reliability: Oracle networks enhance reliability by using decentralized nodes, which increases resilience against failures or malicious activity. If one data source or node fails or provides incorrect information, the other nodes in the network can continue to operate and provide valid data.

The demand for accurate and reliable off-chain data is growing as the number of real-world use-cases and adoption of blockchain increases. Users of applications are more than willing to pay for an oracle service that is accurate and reliable and covers a large variety of use-cases.

Pyth Network versus Other Oracles

Read the blog post of Battle of the Oracles to learn more about the different oracles solutions. To recap, Pyth Network is a high-frequency oracle leveraging Solana's technology, offering a robust solution for off-chain data sharing for primarily decentralized finance applications (DeFi). It provides services like real-time price feeds and benchmarks, accessible to a wide range of financial service providers. PYTH is the governance token and utility token of the Pyth Network. Supply and demand for the PYTH token is directly related to level of usage and total demand of Pyth’s services and Pyth Network’s Tokenomics.

Total Value Secured by Oracles

While Chainlink holds the lion’s share of the total value secured by oracles, Pyth has shown by far the largest growth in terms of TVS, number of protocols supported and number of DApps. Pyth is expanding rapidly, across different networks and protocols, supporting more DApps, data providers and integration partners every day. In the same time frame, Chainlink’s marketshare has decreased. Comparing the main metrics of MCAP/TVS ratio and MCAP/TTV ratio, we notice that based on market capitalization (circulating supply), Pyth is undervalued whereas the TVS ratio based on fully diluted value paints a different picture. This is because only 37% of PYTH tokens are unlocked, the next significant PYTH token unlock takes place in May of 2025 and happens yearly thereafter on the same date until the full amount of tokens has been unlocked by 2027.

Use-cases Enabled by Pyth

Products and Services:

  • Price Feeds: real-time market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Benchmarks: historical market data for smart contracts, blockchains, and applications
  • Express Relay: smart contracts or protocols that need protection against MEV (Express Relay) Express Relay is one of a kind product that offers developers to auction off valuable transactions directly to MEV searchers without validator interference
  • Entropy: smart contracts that require secure on-chain random numbers. Secure and verifiable random numbers are incredibly important for creating a fair and unpredictable on-chain actions (e.g., for games)
  • Pyth DAO Governance model

Examples:

  • Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) require reliable real-time price feeds to provide users accurate trades.
  • Pyth’s data pull model provides data directly from the source, such as exchanges, market makers or DeFi protocols. Because data is pulled only on demand and not pushed at a given interval, it scales efficiently, and costs are offloaded to users where updates are demand-based.

Case Study: Drift (DEX)

Refresher: What is a DEX?

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly, without intermediaries, using smart contracts on a blockchain. DEXes operate peer-to-peer, providing greater privacy and control over assets compared to centralized exchanges.

There are two main types of DEXes:

  1. Order Book DEXes: These platforms match buy and sell orders using a live order book, similar to traditional exchanges. Examples include dYdX.
  2. Automated Market Makers (AMMs): AMMs use liquidity pools and algorithms to determine asset prices, allowing users to trade instantly without needing a counterparty. Examples include Uniswap and SushiSwap.

Context

Drift is a perpetual trading DEX built on Solana. Speed, reliability, and performance make or break a perpetual trading ecosystem. Drift is a perpetual trading platform that allows traders to create leveraged positions against the performance of synthetic assets.

Why Pyth?

Drift seeks to offer the most feature-rich, powerful perpetual DEX with lightning-fast execution. This ambition necessitates a robust Oracle solution. Legacy oracles are slow and susceptible to front and back running.

Pyth and Drift partnered to rapidly deploy a proof-of-concept. This successful relationship satisfies the ultra-fast network requirements of Drift’s execution tools and is capable of supporting thousands of users and hundreds of assets.

This is only one of many examples of an effective partnership and integration that gives Web3 users an enhanced user experience than DApps that use other Oracle solutions. There are presently over 410 integration partners supporting the transition from push to pull Oracles with Pyth Networks.

Pyth versus Chainlink

We compare Chainlink and Pyth Network with two main metrics: Total Value Secured (TVS) and Total Transaction Volume (TTV)

Total Value Secured

Pyth’s Total Value Secured (TVS) is more distributed across different blockchains and applications compared to Chainlink, offering greater resilience and diversification. Here's how the comparison breaks down:

  • Blockchain Distribution: Pyth’s TVS shows a broader spread across multiple blockchains. For instance, only 61.1% of Pyth’s TVS is concentrated on the Solana blockchain, which means the remaining value is distributed across other blockchains, contributing to its decentralized footprint. In contrast, 97.1% of Chainlink’s TVS is concentrated on Ethereum, creating a higher dependence on a single blockchain. This heavy reliance on Ethereum makes Chainlink more vulnerable to network-specific issues, such as scalability concerns or market downturns affecting Ethereum.
  • Application Distribution: Pyth also demonstrates a healthier diversification across different applications. Only 23.8% of Pyth’s TVS is tied to its top application, meaning the remaining value is distributed among various other applications. This broader application spread lowers the risk of one dominant app affecting the network’s overall performance. Chainlink, however, has 48.8% of its TVS tied to its top application, meaning nearly half of its secured value relies on a single application. This concentration creates a potential single point of failure, making Chainlink more sensitive to shifts in the usage or success of that key application.

Pyth's more balanced distribution of TVS across different blockchains and applications enhances its resilience. With a healthier spread of its value, Pyth is better positioned to withstand market fluctuations or downturns that may affect individual blockchains or applications, making it less exposed to risks associated with dependency on any single network or product. This diversified approach gives Pyth a structural advantage in terms of long-term stability and adaptability.

Total Transaction Volume

Another, perhaps better, metric to measure the true market share and usage of an Oracle network is TTV (Total Transaction Volume). TTV is strongly correlated with the frequency of oracle price updates and therefore oracle revenue and true demand for its products and services. TVS can overstate or understate an application’s demand for price updates, because an application could have a disproportionate amount of locked value relative to the amount of Oracle interactions one would expect to observe.

Chainlink, the traditional market leader of oracle networks, is losing ground after being slow to serve customers needing faster data updates, though they've recently launched a new high-speed service. Pyth has become a successful competitor by focusing on rapid data delivery across multiple platforms, making it easier for financial applications to access real-time price information. Large trading platforms are increasingly building their own internal price tracking systems rather than paying external providers, suggesting cost is a major factor in their decisions.

The key to future success in digital trading will be speed - traditional exchanges currently have an advantage with their centralized systems, but new platforms are starting to close this gap by developing faster price update capabilities.

Pyth Network Governance

The Pyth Network operates a decentralized governance system that empowers the community by allowing all PYTH token holders to have a direct say in the network's development and decision-making processes. This decentralized governance model ensures that control of the network is distributed among its users, promoting transparency and inclusion.

To participate in governance, token holders must stake their PYTH tokens through the Pyth staking program. By staking their tokens, users gain the ability to vote on community governance proposals, ensuring that they have a voice in the key decisions shaping the future of the Pyth Network.

In addition to voting, any PYTH token holder has the right to submit proposals to the Pyth DAO, provided they meet the requirement of holding and staking at least 0.25% of the total PYTH tokens staked. The proposals that can be brought to the DAO are diverse and impact many critical aspects of the network's functionality, including:

  • Determining the size of update fees: Proposals can influence the fees charged for updates to the network, ensuring that they remain fair and competitive.
  • Reward distribution mechanisms for publishers: The community can vote on how rewards are allocated to data publishers, ensuring that those contributing accurate and reliable data are fairly compensated.
  • Approving software updates across blockchains: The Pyth Network operates across multiple blockchains, and governance participants have the power to approve essential updates to on-chain programs, ensuring the network remains up to date and secure.
  • Listing price feeds and determining their reference data: Token holders can vote on which price feeds are listed on Pyth, as well as set the technical parameters for these feeds, such as the number of decimal places in the prices and the reference exchanges used to determine the data.
  • Selecting data publishers: The governance system allows the community to permission publishers, or select which entities are allowed to provide data for each price feed. This ensures that only trusted and verified data sources are contributing to the network.

Conclusion

The Pyth Network stands out as a disruptive force in the decentralized oracle space, rapidly growing across protocols and blockchains and setting new standards for both data speed and diversification. Leveraging Solana technology, Pyth brings high-frequency, real-time market data directly from first-party sources—including exchanges and trading firms—to an expanding universe of DeFi and TradFi applications. Compared to its primary competitors, Pyth demonstrates healthier resilience by distributing its Total Value Secured across multiple blockchains and applications, reducing dependencies and systemic risk.

Recent market trends show Pyth gaining ground in metrics like Total Transaction Volume, challenging traditional leaders like Chainlink and reflecting a broader shift toward fast, reliable, and diversified data solutions in decentralized finance. Its innovative approach—such as direct publisher sourcing, sub-second updates, and auditable aggregation—addresses the needs of financial markets with unique precision and transparency.

Ultimately, for developers, institutions, and investors seeking reliable off-chain data with speed and global reach, Pyth Network is quickly becoming a cornerstone oracle solution—and its trajectory signals a new era of dynamic, decentralized connectivity for global finance.

 

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Understanding the Crypto Alt Season

The next altcoin season is poised to ignite the crypto market, promising to turn savvy investors' portfolios into goldmines. As Bitcoin's dominance wanes, a new era of blockchain innovation is dawning—are you ready to ride the wave?

Market behavior often exhibits distinct patterns and cycles. One such phenomenon that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is the "Alt Season"—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," outperform Bitcoin and experience significant price surges.

The concept of market cycles and seasonality is not unique to crypto; it's a well-established principle in traditional financial markets. However, in volatile crypto space, these cycles can be more pronounced and occur with greater frequency.  

In this article, we’ll try to cover these and other topics: 

  1. The nature and characteristics of Alt Seasons
  2. The importance of recognizing market cycles in cryptocurrency trading
  3. Alt Season indicators and how to interpret them
  4. Predictions and speculatins about the next potential Alt Season

What Is Crypto Alt Season?

Crypto Alt Season, short for "Alternative Cryptocurrency Season," refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. During an Alt Season:

  1. Many altcoins experience rapid price increases.
  2. The market share of altcoins grows relative to Bitcoin.
  3. Trading volume for altcoins typically increases.
  4. Investor attention shifts from Bitcoin to various altcoin projects.

An Alt Season can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. It's often characterized by increased risk appetite among investors, who are willing to allocate more capital to smaller, potentially higher-risk crypto projects in search of higher returns.

Is Crypto Season the Same As Crypto Alt Season?

While related, Crypto Season and Crypto Alt Season are not exactly the same:

  1. Crypto Season:
    • Refers to a broader bullish period in the entire cryptocurrency market.
    • Typically includes price appreciation for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
    • Can be longer in duration, sometimes lasting for many months or even a year or more.
    • Often starts with a Bitcoin rally, followed by increased interest in the broader crypto market.
  2. Crypto Alt Season:
    • Specifically focuses on the outperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.
    • Can occur within a broader Crypto Season but is more narrowly defined.
    • Generally shorter in duration than a full Crypto Season.
    • May happen towards the latter part of a broader Crypto Season, as investors seek higher returns in smaller cap coins.

Key Differences:

  • Scope: Crypto Season encompasses the entire market, while Alt Season focuses on altcoins.
  • Duration: Crypto Seasons are generally longer than Alt Seasons.
  • Market Dynamics: In a Crypto Season, Bitcoin often leads the rally, while in an Alt Season, altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

It's important to note that these terms are not officially defined and can be subject to different interpretations within the cryptocurrency community. However, understanding the distinction can help investors and traders better analyze market trends and potential opportunities in different segments of the crypto market.

What Is Alt Season Indicator?

The Alt Season Indicator is a tool used by cryptocurrency traders and investors to gauge whether the market is entering or currently in an "Alt Season" — a period when altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. While there isn't a single, universally accepted Alt Season Indicator, several metrics and tools are commonly used to assess the likelihood of an Alt Season. Here are some key aspects of Alt Season Indicators:

Bitcoin Dominance

One of the most widely used indicators is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

  • Calculation: (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) * 100
  • Interpretation: A declining Bitcoin Dominance often signals a potential Alt Season, as it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins.
  • Threshold: Some traders consider Bitcoin Dominance below 50% as a potential indicator of an Alt Season.

Altcoin Market Cap Ratio

This indicator compares the total market capitalization of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Market Cap / Bitcoin Market Cap
  • Interpretation: An increasing ratio suggests growing strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Top 10 Altcoins Performance

This indicator tracks the performance of the top 10 altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) compared to Bitcoin over a specific period.

  • Calculation: Average percentage gain of top 10 altcoins vs. Bitcoin's percentage gain
  • Interpretation: When a majority of top altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin, it may indicate an Alt Season.

Alt Season Index

Some crypto data platforms offer a proprietary Alt Season Index, which combines various metrics to provide a single score indicating the likelihood of an Alt Season.

  • Scale: Often presented as a percentage or a 0-100 score
  • Interpretation: Higher scores (e.g., above 75%) suggest a higher probability of an ongoing Alt Season

Trading Volume Ratios

This indicator compares the trading volumes of altcoins to Bitcoin's trading volume.

  • Calculation: Total Altcoin Trading Volume / Bitcoin Trading Volume
  • Interpretation: An increase in this ratio may indicate growing interest in altcoins, potentially signaling an Alt Season.

Important Considerations:

  1. No single indicator is foolproof. Traders often use a combination of indicators for a more comprehensive analysis.
  2. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past patterns don't guarantee future results.
  3. Different traders may use different thresholds or interpretations of these indicators.
  4. The crypto market's evolving nature means that indicators may need to be adjusted over time to remain relevant.

Understanding and effectively using Alt Season Indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about allocating their resources between Bitcoin and altcoins. However, it's crucial to combine these indicators with broader market analysis and risk management strategies.

Alt Seasons: Historical Perspective, Current Situation, and Future Predictions

Previous Altcoin Seasons

In crypto, two periods stand out as particularly significant for altcoins. These "alt seasons" saw unprecedented growth and interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, reshaping the landscape of digital assets.

The 2017-2018 Alt Season

Duration: December 2017 to January 2018

Context:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most remarkable bull run to date, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
  • This surge in Bitcoin's price and public interest created a ripple effect throughout the crypto market.

Key Developments:

  1. Proliferation of New Coins: The success of Bitcoin catalyzed the launch of numerous new cryptocurrencies.
  2. Investor Frenzy: Buoyed by Bitcoin's success, investors eagerly sought the "next Bitcoin," pouring capital into various altcoins.
  3. ICO Boom: This period saw a surge in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), with many projects raising millions in a matter of hours or days.
  4. Market Expansion: The total cryptocurrency market cap reached unprecedented levels, briefly surpassing $800 billion in January 2018.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) saw significant price increases during this period.

The 2020-2021 Alt Season

Duration: December 2020 to April 2021

Context:

  • Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, surpassing $60,000 in March 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated digital adoption and increased interest in alternative investments.

Key Developments:

  1. DeFi Explosion: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects gained massive traction, with many tokens seeing exponential growth.
  2. NFT Boom: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) entered the mainstream, driving interest in blockchain-based digital assets.
  3. Institutional Adoption: Major companies and institutional investors began adding cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets.
  4. Technological Advancements: Many altcoins introduced innovative features, scaling solutions, and use cases.

Notable Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) reached new highs, while projects like Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) saw remarkable growth.

Comparative Analysis: Both alt seasons shared some common characteristics:

  • They were preceded by significant Bitcoin price rallies.
  • New projects and tokens gained rapid popularity and valuation.
  • Retail investor participation increased dramatically.
  • The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached new heights.

However, the 2020-2021 alt season was marked by greater institutional involvement and a broader range of technological innovations, particularly in DeFi and NFTs.

Is It Alt Season?

Based on the indicators discussed above, it's not currently an altcoin season. The Altcoin Season Index at 41 and Bitcoin's market dominance at 61.3% both suggest that Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the crypto market at this time.

When Is Alt Season?

Based on the information we could gather from various experts, we can analyze the predictions for the next altcoin season as follows:

  • Based on the latest analysis from experts and on-chain data, here’s what we know about the next altcoin season:

     

    Current Status (August 2025):

     

    • The altcoin season index—a metric that signals how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin—currently sits around 37. For a “full-blown” alt season, it typically needs to rise above 75.

    • Bitcoin dominance is approximately 61-62%. Historically, dropping below 60% often coincides with a rapid rotation into altcoins and the start of alt season.

     

    Key Indicators to Watch:

     

    • Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Above 75 signals a true altcoin season.

    • Bitcoin Dominance: A move below 60% usually marks the transition; sub-50% dominance is associated with peak alt season inflows.

    • Market Activity: Increasing volumes in major altcoins and Layer 1s, meme coin rallies, and spikes in DeFi activity are early warning signs.

    • Ethereum Outperformance: When ETH surges relative to BTC, this historically precedes broader altcoin rallies.

     

    Expert Predictions for 2025:

     

    • Analysts point to a pivotal window for alt season starting as early as August 2025 and extending through the fall, with many expecting true acceleration of altcoin gains if Bitcoin’s price consolidates and capital rotates further into alts.

    • There is strong consensus that macroeconomic catalysts, such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum, could fuel a major altcoin rally in late 2025 if positive conditions persist.

    Summary Table: Key Factors & Targets

    SignalAlt Season TriggerStatus (Aug 2025)
    Altcoin Season Index (ASI)>75 ~37
    Bitcoin dominance<60% ~61–62% (near trigger)
    Altcoin trading volumeSustained surge across many alts Rising, but not explosive
    Ethereum outperformanceETH/ BTC breakout, >$3,700 Near, ETH ~$3,500
    Market narrativesAI, DeFi, meme coins, new L1 inflows Strengthening
     

    Bottom Line:
    Most analysts agree the groundwork for altcoin season in 2025 is building. We are currently in a transition phase: if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, a full-fledged alt season could ignite during the second half of 2025. Monitor these key indicators to stay ahead as market momentum shifts from Bitcoin into a broader range of altltcoins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Technology: Look for coins with innovative solutions to existing blockchain challenges.
  • Adoption: Consider projects with growing partnerships and real-world use cases.
  • Market Position: Established coins with room for growth may offer a balance of stability and potential returns.
  • Tokenomics: Understanding supply dynamics can help predict potential price movements.

It's crucial to conduct thorough research before investing. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always invest responsibly and within your risk tolerance.

How to Win in Next Alt Season?

Capitalizing on the next altcoin season requires a strategic approach. Here's how to maximize potential gains:

  • Research and Diversification: Thoroughly research potential investments, analyzing both fundamentals and technical aspects to identify promising altcoins. Diversify your holdings across different projects to mitigate risk and maximize potential returns. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
  • Strategic Timing: Utilize technical analysis tools like support/resistance levels and RSI to pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Monitor market sentiment and price trends to make informed decisions. A clear entry and exit strategy is crucial for managing risk and maximizing profits during volatile periods.
  • Newer Projects: Consider participating in newer altcoin projects. This provides early access to potentially high-growth projects at discounted prices. Research upcoming defi projects with use cases, focusing on innovative projects with strong potential. Investing early can yield substantial returns as the project develops.

Conclusion

In summary, an altcoin season, marked by significant price increases in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, may be on the horizon.  This potential surge could be driven by investors seeking higher returns in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies, technological advancements in altcoin projects, increased blockchain adoption, and the transition of projects from speculative ventures to real-world applications

Remember, while the potential for significant gains exists during an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Always invest responsibly.

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