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December ‘24 Protocol Highlight: Stellar
December 07, 2024
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$XLM is up over 5x in the last month. TVL is up 3x, and core fundamentals are up on Stellar.
 
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                                                   XLM vs TVL Chart Built Using Artemis

 

What is happening on Stellar, and what are real use cases?

How does activity look on Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform launched in 2024?

Today, we highlight the Stellar as our protocol highlight.
We chat with Raja Chakravorti, Chief Business Officer at the Stellar Development Foundation, on his journey into crypto, real use cases on Stellar. We also do a deep dive on Stellar and Soroban metrics thanks to @ElBarto_Crypto and @0xUltraviolence.
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Without further ado! Please welcome @rajachak75 the CBO at SDF.

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Raja! What is your story?
How did you get into crypto, and how did you end up working at SDF?
I’ve been in the fintech, payments, and insurance industries for two decades now. Prior to joining SDF, I led product partnerships and business development for Universal Access at Plaid, a leading financial data network company, built and scaled Root Enterprise with a focus on B2B solutions, and drove revenue growth and partnerships for PayPal’s North America business. I’m thrilled to now have the opportunity to leverage all that experience to lead and scale financial services and technology businesses to support the growth of the Stellar ecosystem.
What is the mission behind SDF? What attracted you to the mission?
Throughout my career, I’ve been driven by the goal of creating broad and equitable financial access through technology. SDF’s mission to create more equitable access to the global financial system by supporting the Stellarblockchain directly aligns with my goals to drive greater access through innovative technology. As the child of parents who immigrated from India, I saw firsthand the challenges they faced, from accessing affordable credit to sending money home. These experiences have fueled my passion to make financial services more inclusive and accessible.
How do real-world users use Stellar?
Can you share stories of people who have benefited from the Stellar network?
There are so many examples of real world users leveraging Stellar-based solutions to access financial services in ways they’ve never been able to before, from freelancers getting paid all over the world, to refugees receiving cash aid in Ukraine, to defi lending protocols that are helping power microfinance programs in new ways. One of the stories we highlighted most recently comes out of San Francisco, Colombia. ​​The Decaf app, built on Stellar, has transformed life for a community providing a safe, blockchain-based payment solution. This real-world application addressed a critical issue faced by entrepreneur Zac Borrowdale, who was shot while carrying cash to pay his workers. Utilizing Decaf and MoneyGram's on/off-ramps on the Stellar network, workers can now receive payments safely and cash out locally, eliminating dangerous cash transports. This solution has particularly empowered women in the workforce, contributing to the town's revitalization. I highly recommend taking 11 minutes out of your day to
watch the video: 
 
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What is the biggest misconception about  Stellar? What is crypto Twitter missing about Stellar?
Real world utility is something that SDF is very focused on. SDF’s goal is to create a more equitable global financial system that works for everyone, no matter where they live or what level of traditional financial services they may have access to. We believe that the best solutions to the problems people have are likely to come from within those communities. The Decaf use case in Colombia is a great example. The traditional financial system in Colombia created some real problems for Zac and his workers. Decaf is designed to solve those problems with communities like San Francisco, Colombia in mind. Product-market fit is so important for web3 technology and I think sometimes things get celebrated on crypto twitter that are not solutions for a problem that people have. If the goal is to grow adoption of blockchain technology, that technology needs to be solving problems for real people. At the Stellar Development Foundation, we are extremely outcome-oriented and we are looking for pragmatic solutions to difficult problems. We have a mission and are focused on that.
What are some interesting applications built on the Stellar smart contracts platform?
Why is the payment to DeFi integration so important with Blend?
Integrating new defi protocols like Blend with the payment infrastructure built over the last 10 years on the network is the Stellar ecosystem's superpower. Wallets and applications already serving users in global markets with global on and off-ramps can now plug into DeFi protocols and offer new opportunities like staking, lending, and borrowing while still being able to cash in and out without needing a bank account. This is what we mean when we give people access to "everyday financial services." To date, we’ve seen longtime Stellar project, ClickPesa, integrate with Blend to offer a new net offering, The ClickPesa Debt Fund, a platform for global investors to generate financial returns while supporting microloans for small and medium businesses in Tanzania. Meru, the one of the first wallets to directly integrate with Blend on Stellar, is seeing an exciting response to the now available new offerings. Giving the global majority access to savings, lending, borrowing, and more in a single application will change the game. It's never been easier to onboard users into DeFi.
What is the partnership with Moneygram like and why is that important?
We celebrated 2 years of MoneyGram Access, the first-of-its-kind cash-to-crypto solution, this year. It has been monumentally important in expanding what builders can do on Stellar, and who they can reach. When we launched this with MoneyGram, the goal was to solve the last mile problem that no other network had solved, and to expand the utility and use of digital assets by creating a seamless bridge between cash and crypto that allowed a new wave of users to access the digital economy (no bank account required). One of the most exciting things to me about rolling out a solution like this globally, is seeing how people use it in the real world. We started with 2 wallet integrations, and now 30 wallets have either integrated or are in the pipeline. Since launch, we’ve seen an average transaction size of about $480 dollars. The top cash in country is the US (also the top country for sending remittances), while the top cash out countries are Ukraine, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina (which are either developing/emerging economies or in Ukraine’s case, going through a rebuilding process). What we’re observing tracks with SDF’s thesis from the outset, which was that this solution is providing new utility for things like remittances, in small but meaningful amounts, in key markets. It also became the foundation for transformational solutions like Stellar Aid Assist and the Stellar Disbursement Platform. Now, with the Stellar smart contracts platform Soroban and cash-to-DeFi capabilities, we’ve entered a new phase of seeing what builders and users will do with this utility.
How does Stellar use or hope to use Artemis?
The Stellar integration with Artemis is about making blockchain data more accessible and meaningful. It's exciting for three key reasons: First, it gives us a clearer window into all the incredible activity happening on the Stellar network. Think of it as turning on the lights – suddenly we can better showcase the innovative projects and real-world solutions being built on Stellar. Second, it's a game-changer for analysis. Whether you're a researcher studying blockchain trends or a developer evaluating different platforms, Artemis makes it easier to understand how Stellar fits into the bigger picture of blockchain adoption and usage. Finally, and this is particularly cool, it democratizes access to Stellar data. By presenting the network data in Artemis's user-friendly "ez" table format, we're making it simpler for anyone in the Stellar ecosystem to conduct their own analysis and create reports. If you're already familiar with Artemis, you'll find it intuitive to start exploring Stellar data right away. Artemis isn't just about metrics – it's about transparency, understanding, and empowering the community with better tools to tell the Stellar story.

‍Key metrics: Stellar KPI Deep Dive vs Blockchains

👋 @ElBarto_Cryptohere, data scientist at Artemis. Today we do a deep dive on Stellar metrics versus other blockchains.Originally launched in 2016, Stellar has seen steady growth in the number of monthly operations. While activity on the chain dipped during the most recent bear market, it increased from 250mn monthly operations to 300mn monthly operations in November 2024.
 
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                                              Monthly Operations on Stellar Net using Artemis
 
A key advantage of Stellar is its low cost per transaction, making it ideal to perform payments on the network. Stellar consistently has one of the lowest average transaction costs across networks that Artemis tracks, and is similar to recently launched blockchains.
 
 
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                                          Stellar fees vs other chains via Artemis
 
Soroban is Stellar's smart contract platform that was announced in 2022 and launched on mainnet in 2024. To encourage users to build on it, the Stellar Development Foundation launched the $100M Soroban adoption fund to support developers building on the platform. Weekly transactions on the platform have spiked in November 2024, to around 10 - 14k per week.
 
 
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                                      Weekly Sorobon Transaction Count via Artemis
 
Stellar is a top blockchain for securitizing US Treasuries. Franklin Templeton first chose Stellar to tokenize one of its US treasury funds and it has grown to have over $400mn in assets under management. The fund ranks among the top 3 in assets under management and has steady growth throughout 2024.
 
 
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                                                      US Treasuries Gragh vi Artemis
 
Stablecoins, remittances, and payments are other key focus areas for Stellar. Through the “anchor” system which allows the blockchain to interact with traditional finance rails, over 40 million payments have been facilitated. Payment volume through the >100 anchors has increased since inception in 2021, averaging over 40,000 payments per day in 2024. Circle, the issuer of USDC and an early anchor has processed over $15B in payments volume.
 
 
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This is their playbook!

00:02:32
$318 Trillion in Debt Could Break the Silver Market

There’s one number Wall Street doesn’t want you thinking about: $318 trillion. That’s how much global debt exists right now, and my cousin Asian Guy breaks down why this debt spiral could collide with a silver market already in a multi-year supply deficit. In this video, he explains:

  • Why governments always inflate debt away

  • Why silver is facing record industrial demand and shrinking inventories

  • How paper silver is diverging from physical reality

  • Why some analysts see $100+ silver, or a system break before that

This isn’t hype. It’s math, history, and market stress signals lining up. The market hasn’t fully reacted yet. But the pressure is already there.

00:19:21
👉UNIVERSAL HIGH INCOME (AKA Elon's Soft Landing)

"There is only basically one way to make everyone wealthy, and that is AI and robotics." — Elon Musk

It's called, "Universal High Income"

Elon’s concept of Universal High Income 🚀 (which he often uses instead of "Maximum" or "Basic" income) is a vision of a future where human labor is no longer a requirement for survival.

The combination of advanced AI and mass-produced humanoid robots (like Tesla’s Optimus) will break the traditional link between work and income ⛓️‍💥. Here is the breakdown 👇

🔹 From "Basic" to "High" Income 💎

While traditional Universal Basic Income (UBI) 💵 is often proposed as a government safety net to provide a minimum standard of living, Musk argues that AI will lead to Universal High Income (UHI) ✨

The "High" Part: He believes that in an AI-driven economy, people won't just have "enough to get by"

Instead, they will have access to a luxurious standard of living because goods and services will become incredibly cheap and abundant

Post-Scarcity: He envisions ...

00:00:06
👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading

Custom AI assistants that print money in your sleep? 🔜

The future of Crypto x AI is about to go crazy.

👉 Here’s what you need to know:

💠 'Based Agent' enables creation of custom AI agents
💠 Users set up personalized agents in < 3 minutes
💠 Equipped w/ crypto wallet and on-chain functions
💠 Capable of completing trades, swaps, and staking
💠 Integrates with Coinbase’s SDK, OpenAI, & Replit

👉 What this means for the future of Crypto:

1. Open Access: Democratized access to advanced trading
2. Automated Txns: Complex trades + streamlined on-chain activity
3. AI Dominance: Est ~80% of crypto 👉txns done by AI agents by 2025

🚨 I personally wouldn't bet against Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak.

👉 Coinbase just launched an AI agent for Crypto Trading
🚨The Republic of the Marshall Islands has completed the world’s first onchain disbursement of 👉universal basic income (UBI) on the Stellar blockchain.
1.pdf
What Is Altseason?

When 75% of the top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin in the last 90 days, it's Altcoin Season. Remember, stablecoins like Tether and DAl, as well as asset-backed tokens such as WBTC, stETH, and cLINK, aren't included.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/altcoin-season-index/

🚨 Crypto derivatives hit $86 trillion in 2025 volume; Binance grabs 46 % market share 🚨

Annual crypto derivatives trading volume reached $86.3 trillion in 2025, up 74 % from $49.6 trillion in 2024, according to CoinGlass data analyzed by CoinTelegraph. Binance maintained its top spot with $39.7 trillion notional (46 % share), while OKX and Bybit surged to $18.4 trillion and $12.1 trillion respectively. The surge was driven by institutional adoption of vanilla calls/puts and a boom in AI-agent perpetuals.

🔑Key points

🔹 2025 volume breakout: Q4 2025 alone printed $26.8 trillion, the highest quarterly figure ever; daily average $237 bn, peaking at $512 bn on 17 Nov during Trump-victory volatility.

🔹 Exchange ranking: Binance 46 %, OKX 21 %, Bybit 14 %, Bitget 8 %, Deribit 5 %; CME grew fastest at 217 % YoY to $1.9 trillion, capturing TradFi cross-margin flows.

🔹 Product mix: Perpetual swaps still dominate (82 % of volume), but quarterly deliverables jumped to 12 % as funds rolled spot ETF positions via...

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Stellar CEO Reveals Where Real Opportunity Lies in Crypto Market: Details

In a recent tweet, Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) CEO and Executive Director Denelle Dixon defines what "real opportunity" is in blockchain as a new financial future beckons.

The SDF CEO was reacting to a recent Bloomberg report on Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY), Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital participation in a new $50 million investment round by Digital Asset Holdings. This comes as some of Wall Street’s biggest names embrace the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies to handle traditional assets.

Reacting to this development, Stellar Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon stated that every blockchain investment is a bet on a different financial future. Dixon added that seeing banks explore blockchain technology validates what has been known over the years.

Real opportunity defined

While Wall Street’s biggest names betting on blockchain might be one of the most significant adoption milestones in the digital asset market, Dixon defines what real opportunity is and what it is not.

According to the SDF executive director, real opportunity is not replicating old systems on new rails but rather building open networks that fundamentally expand global finance participation.

"But the real opportunity isn’t replicating old systems on new rails—it’s building open networks that fundamentally expand who gets to participate in global finance. That’s the opportunity," Dixon tweeted.

At the Meridian 2025 event, Stellar outlined its long-term privacy strategy, committing to investing in critical privacy infrastructure and building foundational cryptographic capabilities.

Stellar eyes privacy upgrade

A new protocol upgrade is on the horizon for the Stellar network: X-Ray, which lays the groundwork for developers to build privacy applications on Stellar using zero-knowledge (ZK) cryptography.

The protocol timeline testnet vote is anticipated for Jan. 7, 2026, while the mainnet vote is expected for Jan. 22, 2026.

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XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network

XDC Network's acquisition of Contour Network marks a silent shift to connect the digital trade infrastructure to real-time, tokenized settlement rails.

In a world where cross-border payments still take days and trap trillions in idle liquidity, integrating Contour’s trade workflows with XDC Network Blockchains' ISO 20022 financial messaging standard to bridge TradFi and Web3 in Trade Finance.

The Current State of Cross-Border Trade Settlements

Cross-border payments remain one of the most inefficient parts of global finance. For decades, companies have inter-dependency with banks and their correspondent banks across the world, forcing them to maintain trillions of dollars in pre-funded nostro and vostro balances — the capital that sits idle while transactions crawl across borders.

Traditional settlement is slow, often 1–5 days, and often with ~2-3% in FX and conversion fees. For every hour a corporation can’t access its own cash increases the cost of financing, tightens liquidity that could be used for other purposes, which in turn slows economic activity.

Before SWIFT, payments were fully manual. Intermediary banks maintained ledgers, and reconciliation across multiple institutions limited speed and volume.

SWIFT reshaped global payments by introducing a secure, standardized messaging infrastructure through ISO 20022 - which quickly became the language of money for 11,000+ institutions in 200 countries.

But SWIFT only fixed the messaging — not the movement. Actual value still moves through slow, capital-intensive correspondent chains.

Regulated and Compliant Stablecoin such as USDC (Circle) solves the part SWIFT never could: instant, on-chain settlement.

Stablecoin Settlement revamping Trade and Tokenization

Stablecoin such as USDC is a digital token pegged to the US Dollar, still the most widely used currency for trade, enabling the movement of funds instantly 24*7 globally - transparently, instantly, and without the need for any intermediaries and the need to lock in trillions of dollars of idle cash.

Tokenized settlement replaces multi-day reconciliation with on-chain finality, reducing:

  • Dependency on intermediaries
  • Operational friction
  • Trillions locked in idle liquidity

For corporates trapped in long working capital cycles, this is transformative.

Digital dollars like USDC make the process simple:

Fiat → Stablecoin → On-Chain Transfer → Fiat

This hybrid model is already widely used across remittances, payouts, and treasury flows.

But one critical piece of global commerce is still lagging:

👉 Trade finance.

The Missing link is still Trade Finance Infrastructure.

While payments innovation has raced ahead, trade finance infrastructure hasn’t kept up. Document flows, letters of credit, and supply-chain financing remain siloed, paper-heavy, and operationally outdated.

This is exactly where the next breakthrough will happen - and why the recent XDC Network acquisition of Contour is a silent revolution.

It transforms to a new era of trade-driven liquidity through an end-to-end digital trade from shipping docs to payment confirmation – one infrastructure that powers all.

The breakthrough won’t come from payments alone — it will come from connecting trade finance to real-time settlement rails.

The XDC + Contour Shift: A Silent Revolution

  • Contour already connects global banks and corporates through digital LCs and digitized trade workflows.
  • XDC Blockchain brings a settlement layer built for speed, tokenization, and institutional-grade interoperability and ISO 20022 messaging compatibility

Contour’s digital letter of credit workflows will be integrated with XDC’s blockchain network to streamline trade documentation and settlement.

Together, they form the first end-to-end digital trade finance network linking:

Documentation → Validation → Settlement all under a single infrastructure.

XDC Ventures (XVC.TECH) is launching a Stable-Coin Lab to work with financial institutions on regulated stablecoin pilots for trade to deepen institutional trade-finance integration through launch of pilots with banks and corporates for regulated stable-coin issuance and settlement.

The Bottom Line

Payments alone won’t transform Global Trade Finance — Trade finance + Tokenized Settlement will.

This is the shift happening underway XDC Network's acquisition of Contour is the quiet catalyst.

Learn how trade finance is being revolutionised:

https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/xdc-ventures-acquires-contour-network-launches-stablecoin-lab-trade-finance-2025-10-22/

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Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth🌍

One year ago, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s apartment. Now, the college dropout is a billionaire at age 27.

In July, Jeffrey Sprecher, the 70-year-old billionaire CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, sat at Manhatta, an upscale restaurant in the financial district overlooking the sprawling New York City skyline from the 60th floor. As a sommelier weaved through tables pouring wine, in walked Shayne Coplan—in a T-shirt and jeans, clutching a plastic water bottle and a paper bag with a bagel he’d picked up en route. Sprecher chuckles as he recalls his first impression of the boyish, eccentric entrepreneur: “An old bald guy that works at the New York Stock Exchange, where we require that you wear a suit and tie, next to a mop-headed guy in a T-shirt that's 27.” But Sprecher was fascinated by Polymarket, Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction market, and after dinner, he made his move: “I asked Shayne if he would consider selling us his company.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket let thousands of ordinary people bet on future events—the unemployment rate, say, or when BitCoin will hit an all-time high. In aggregate, prediction market bets have proven to be something of a crystal ball with the wisdom of the crowd often proving itself more prescient than expert opinion. For instance, Polymarket punters predicted that Trump would prevail in the 2024 presidential election, when many national pundits were sure that Kamala Harris would win.

Coplan initially turned down Sprecher’s buyout offer. But discussions led to negotiations and eventually a deal. In October, Intercontinental announced it had invested $2 billion for an up to 25% stake in the company, bringing the young solo founder the balance he was looking for. “We're consumer, we’re viral, we're culture. They’re finance, they’re headless and they’re infrastructure,” Coplan tells Forbes in a recent interview.

At the same time, Coplan announced investments from other billionaires including Figma’s Dylan Field, Zynga’s Mark Pincus, Uber’s Travis Kalanick and hedge fund manager Glenn Dubin. A longtime Red Hot Chili Peppers fan, Coplan even convinced lead singer Anthony Kiedis to invest after a mutual acquaintance brought the musician to Coplan’s apartment one day. “He's buzzing my door, and I’m like, ‘holy shit,'” Coplan recalls, his bright blue eyes widening. “I love their music. A lot of the inspiration [for my work] comes from the music that I listen to.”

Thanks to the deals, Polymarket’s valuation quickly shot to $9 billion, making the 2025 Under 30 alum the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, with an estimated 11% stake worth $1 billion. His reign was short: twenty days later, he was overtaken as the youngest by the three 22-year-old founders of AI startup Mercor.

Young entrepreneurs are minting ten-figure fortunes faster than ever. In addition to the Mercor trio and Coplan, 15 other Under 30 alumni—including ScaleAI cofounder Lucy Guo, Reddit’s Steve Huffman and Cursor’s cofounders—became billionaires this year, while Guo’s cofounder Alexandr Wang and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev (both former Under 30 honorees) regained their billionaire status after having fallen out of the ranks.

The budding billionaire has long been fascinated by markets and tech. When he was just 14, Coplan emailed the regional Securities and Exchange Commission office to ask how to create new marketplaces. “I did not get a response, but it’s a really funny email,” he says, grinning playfully as he thinks of his younger self. “It just shows that this stuff takes over a decade of percolating in your mind.”

Two years later, Coplan showed up at the offices of internet startup Genius uninvited after multiple emails of his asking for an internship went ignored. At age 16—at least a decade younger than anyone in that office—he secured his first job after making a memorable impression with his “wild curls” and “encyclopedic knowledge of billionaire tech entrepreneurs.” “If he chooses to become a tech entrepreneur, which seems likely, I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing his name again in the press before long,” Chris Glazek, his manager at the time, wrote in Coplan’s college recommendation letter.

Coplan went on to study computer science at NYU, but dropped out in 2017 to work on various crypto projects that never took off. In 2020, he founded Polymarket to create a solution to the “rampant misinformation” he saw in the world: The company’s first market allowed users to bet on when New York City would reopen amid the pandemic. He soon expanded into elections and pop culture happenings, among other events.

But it didn’t take long for the company to butt heads with regulators. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for offering unregistered markets. It was also ordered to block all U.S. users, but activity on Polymarket skyrocketed particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with bets totaling $3.6 billion. A week after the election, the FBI raided Coplan's apartment and seized his devices as part of an investigation into a possible violation of this agreement. Shortly after, Coplan posted on his X account that he saw the raid as “a last-ditch effort” from the Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

In July, the Department of Justice and CFTC dropped the investigations—after which Sprecher reached out to Coplan for dinner—and less than a week later, Polymarket announced it had acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCX to prepare for a compliant U.S. launch. QCX applied to be a federally-registered exchange in 2022—an application that was left dormant for three years before receiving approval less than two weeks before the acquisition was announced. When asked about the timing of the deal, Coplan points to CFTC acting chairwoman Caroline Pham, who President Trump tapped to lead the agency in January. “Caroline deserves a lot of credit for getting every single license that had been paused for no reason approved, as acting chairwoman in less than a year,” he says. Coplan had realized an acquisition might be the only way for Polymarket to legally operate in the U.S. as early as 2021 due to the lengthy federal approval process, a source familiar with the deal told Forbes.

Just two months after the acquisition and days after Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board, the company received federal approval to launch in the U.S. (Trump Jr. has also served as a strategic advisor to Polymarket’s main competitor Kalshi since January.)

Polymarket’s rapid rise has drawn critics. Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Washington-based financial advocacy group Better Markets, told Forbes in an email that the current administration’s deregulation around prediction markets has unlocked a regulatory “loophole” to enable “unregulated gambling” under the CFTC, “which has zero expertise, capacity or resources to regulate and police these markets.” Kelleher added that with backing from the Trump family “who are directly trying to profit on this new gambling den… the massive deregulation and crypto hysteria will almost certainly end badly for the American people.”

Investors and businesses are scrambling to seize the moment of deregulation. “We had opportunities to invest in events markets earlier, but there was a lot of risk,” Sprecher says, listing the regulatory changes in favor of crypto and prediction markets under the current administration. “This was the moment to invest if we wanted to still be early in the space.”

In the last few months, Trump’s Truth Social and sportsbook FanDuel, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini all announced their own plans to offer prediction markets. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets, which were integrated into its platform in March, were helping drive record activity for the retail brokerage in its third quarter earnings call.

“People are starting to realize right now that the opportunities are endless,” says Dubin, the billionaire hedge fund veteran who invested in Polymarket earlier this year. He points to sports betting companies, which have been regulated by states as gambling activity and taxed accordingly. States like New York can tax up to 51% of sportsbooks’ revenue, but federally-regulated prediction markets can bypass state laws, avoiding taxes and operating in all 50 states. With the realization that prediction markets could upend the sports betting industry—which brought in $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024—businesses are quickly jumping on board despite pushback from state gambling regulators. In October, both Polymarket and Kalshi secured partnerships with sportsbook PrizePicks and the National Hockey League, and Polymarket announced exclusive partnerships with sportsbook DraftKings and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

The disruption won’t be limited to sports betting. Alongside its investment, Intercontinental’s tens of thousands of institutional clients including large hedge funds and over 750 third-party providers of data will soon have access to Polymarket data, as it gets integrated into Intercontinental’s products such as indices to better inform investment decisions. It also hopes to work with Polymarket to work on initiatives around tokenization—or converting financial assets into digital tokens on blockchain technology—to allow traders on Intercontinental’s exchanges to trade more flexibly at all hours of the day, Sprecher says. What’s more, in November, Google Finance announced it would integrate Polymarket and Kalshi data into its search results, while Yahoo Finance also announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket.

Despite flashy investors, partnerships and a record $2.4 billion of trading volume in November, Polymarket has yet to launch in the U.S. or turn a profit. Coplan and his investors have hinted at ways the company could make money one day—selling its data, charging fees to users, launching a cryptocurrency token (similar to Ethereum or Bitcoin)—but decline to confirm any specifics. For now, the only thing that’s certain is the bet Coplan is making on himself. “Going for it and having it not pan out is an infinitely better outcome than living your life as a what if,” he says.

Standing across from the New York Stock Exchange building, Coplan tilts his head up as he watches a massive banner with Polymarket’s logo get hoisted onto the exterior of the building. It’s been five years since founding. One year since the FBI raid. He’s taking it all in. “Against all odds,” the bright blue banner reads, rippling in the wind alongside three American flags protruding from the building.

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XDC: xdcc2C02203C4f91375889d7AfADB09E207Edf809A6

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